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2020 United States Senate election in Colorado

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2020 United States Senate election in Colorado
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An election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

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Under Colorado law, the filing deadline for U.S. Senate candidates was March 17, 2020, the third Tuesday in March of the election year; the primary election occurred on June 30.[1][2] Incumbent senator Cory Gardner lost re-election to former governor John Hickenlooper.[3] Gardner was unopposed in the Republican primary, and Hickenlooper defeated former State House Speaker Andrew Romanoff in the Democratic primary.[4]

This race was one of two Republican-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump lost in 2016; the other was in Maine. Many pollsters and pundits[5][6] considered Gardner to be the most vulnerable Republican senator facing re-election in 2020 due to his narrow victory in 2014, the state's leftward shift, and Trump's unpopularity in the state.

As predicted, Hickenlooper easily defeated Gardner by a 9.3-point margin. However, Gardner did manage to outperform Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by roughly four points.[7] This became the first election Gardner had lost in his political career as well as being the widest margin of loss for a Coloradan U.S. Senator since 1978.[8] This was the third consecutive election where this seat flipped parties, and also the second consecutive election in which the incumbent senator lost re-election to a second term for this particular seat. At the age of 68, Hickenlooper is the oldest first term senator from Colorado.

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Background

Gardner was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Democratic senator Mark Udall in a very successful election year for Republicans. Gardner was widely considered vulnerable in 2020 due to Colorado's recent Democratic trend and his support for Trump.[9] Polling showed that more voters had a negative view of Gardner compared to a positive one.[10] Gardner also faced a four-year grassroots campaign across the state by progressive political activists to hold him accountable for his votes, featured a cardboard cutout dubbed "Cardboard Cory".[11] The seat was expected to be highly competitive and the most likely Republican-held seat to flip Democratic. The Democratic nominee, former governor John Hickenlooper, had a consistent double-digit lead over Gardner in the polls.[12][13]

Various minor scandals in the days leading up to the June 30 Democratic primary sparked speculation that Romanoff might win, but Hickenlooper had an advantage in name recognition, and harsh negative attacks by Romanoff reportedly led many state Democrats and voters to sour on him.[14]

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Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

  • Margot Dupre, estate agent[16][17]
  • Gail Prentice, veteran and business owner[18][19]

Endorsements

Cory Gardner (R)

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U.S. Executive Branch officials

Organizations

Other individuals

Results

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Democratic primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

John Hickenlooper

U.S. presidents

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

Local officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Andrew Romanoff

State officials

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Hypothetical polling, Poll source ...

Caucus

On March 7, 2020, the Colorado Democratic Party held a non-binding Senate primary preference poll at its caucus sites. Attendees could choose delegates to county and then state conventions. If a candidate received at least 30% of the delegates at the state convention they would be placed on the ballot. Some candidates were not listed because they instead chose to attempt to collect signatures to reach the ballot. Candidates needed 1,500 signatures from each congressional district. Hickenlooper and Underwood chose to do both. Romanoff collected the needed signatures as of March 8, 2020.[102][103]

Caucus results

Romanoff was the only candidate to get more than 30% in the initial precinct caucuses. Hickenlooper withdrew from the assembly process soon afterward, choosing to qualify for the ballot exclusively by petition. Ballot access for assembly candidates will be decided at the state assembly. Caucus winners do not always receive the party's nomination; Romanoff won them in the 2010 Democratic primary for Colorado's Senate race, but Michael Bennet won the party's nomination that year.[104]

The aggregate results of the various precinct caucuses on March 7, 2020, were:[105]

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Results

Thumb
Results by county:
Hickenlooper
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
Romanoff
  •   50–60%
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Other candidates

Libertarian primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

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Unity Party

Nominee

  • Stephan "Chairman Seku" Evans, former candidate for mayor of Denver[110]

Eliminated at Unity Party convention

Withdrawn

Write-in candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

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General election

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Debate

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Predictions

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Post-primary endorsements

Polling

Graphical Summary

Poll Results

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Hypothetical polling

with generic Democrat

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on whether Cory Gardner deserves to be re-elected

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with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

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with Mike Johnston

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Results

The election was not particularly close, with Hickenlooper winning by 9.32%. Hickenlooper's win was expected, as Colorado has moved more toward being a blue state. Key to Hickenlooper's victory was Denver County and its surrounding suburban counties, Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, and Jefferson, the latter of which had been pivotal to Gardner's victory in 2014.[citation needed] Gardner did well in the typically red El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs. Gardner also did well in many rural areas of the state. However, Hickenlooper's strong performance in heavily populated counties proved too much for Gardner to overcome. Hickenlooper was also likely helped by Joe Biden, who won the state by 13.5%.

Hickenlooper is the first senator from Colorado who was also the Governor of Colorado since Senator Edwin Johnson was elected in 1936. Hickenlooper was sworn in as Senator on January 3, 2021, for a six-year term that expires on January 3, 2027.

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By county

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By congressional district

Hickenlooper won four of seven congressional districts.[176]

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See also

Notes

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Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Romanoff's campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by 314 Action
  3. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  4. Poll sponsored by Progress Colorado, a progressive and pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  5. Giffords endorsed Hickenlooper prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. End Citizens United supports candidates who oppose the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling
  7. Poll conducted for Mike Johnston
  8. Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
  9. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
  10. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization

Voter samples

  1. A judge ruled that Lorena Garcia could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  2. A judge ruled that Michelle Ferrigno Warren could appear on the ballot despite only getting 50% of the signatures needed to qualify, citing how signatures can't be collected due to COVID-19. The Colorado Supreme Court overruled the ruling after an appeal from Colorado's Secretary of State.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Undecided with 15%
  5. Not yet released
  6. Standard VI response
  7. Undecided with 16%; Baer, Madden and Williams with 2%; Walsh with 1%; "someone else" with 4%
  8. With only Hickenlooper and Romanoff as candidates
  9. Undecided with 17%
  10. Undecided with 29%; Walsh with 4%; Williams with 3%; Baer and Madden with 1%
  11. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  12. "Other candidate or write-in" with 2%
  13. Doane (L) with 2%; Evans (Unity) with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  15. Doane (L) with 2%; Doyle (Approval Voting), Evans (Unity) and "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  16. "Other candidate" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  17. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  18. "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 8%
  19. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  20. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  21. Undecided with 7%
  22. Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size and voters who are undecided or for third party candidates
  23. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 6%
  24. Undecided with 9%
  25. Undecided with 9%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  26. "Don't know" with 17%; "other/none of the above" with 4%
  27. "Refused" with 3%; Undecided with 16%
  28. "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 12%
  29. "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  30. "Undecided" with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 4%
  31. Would not vote/would not vote for U.S. Senate with 2%
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References

Further reading

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