2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election

The 2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election was held in the UK parliament constituency of Airdrie and Shotts following the resignation of the sitting member (MP), Neil Gray, to run for the corresponding seat (which he subsequently won) in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.^[1] This was necessitated by Scottish National Party (SNP) rules banning its members from sitting as an MSP and an MP at the same time. It took place on 13 May 2021, a week after the Scottish Parliament elections, to reduce COVID-19 transmission risk.^[2]

2021 Airdrie and Shotts by-election

← 2019 13 May 2021 2024 →
Airdrie and Shotts constituency
Turnout	34.3% (28.0 pp)
First party Second party Third party   Con Candidate Anum Qaisar-Javed Kenneth Stevenson Ben Callaghan Party SNP Labour Conservative Popular vote 10,129 8,372 2,812 Percentage 46.4% 38.4% 12.9% Swing 1.4pp 6.5pp 4.7pp
MP before election Neil Gray SNP Elected MP Anum Qaisar-Javed SNP

The by-election was the second to the 58th Parliament elected in 2019. This by-election ended a long lull between House of Commons by-elections in Scotland, with the last one having been held in Inverclyde in 2011. This was the first by-election to a Westminster constituency in which the SNP was the defending party. Anum Qaisar-Javed held the seat for the SNP with a decreased majority but an increased share of the vote.^[3]

Background

Airdrie and Shotts is a generally working-class, urban seat, and contains the towns of Airdrie, Calderbank, Chapelhall, Glenmavis and Shotts. Previous MPs for the seat include the former Labour cabinet ministers Helen Liddell and John Reid,^[3] both of whom now sit in the House of Lords.

Neil Gray was elected as the Scottish National Party (SNP) MP for Airdrie and Shotts at the 2015 United Kingdom general election, and was re-elected in both 2017 and 2019. In November 2020, Gray announced that he would be resigning as an MP in order to try and win a seat in the Scottish Parliament constituency of the same name at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.^[4] On 23 March 2021, he made his final speech in the House of Commons,^[5] and was appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead a day later.^[1]

Candidates

Jonathan Stanley had already been announced as the Scottish Unionist Party candidate for a potential Airdrie and Shotts by-election in September 2020.^[6]

On 18 March 2021, Anum Qaisar-Javed was selected as the SNP's candidate for the by-election. She was a Labour Party member until at least 2014, and was the general secretary of Muslim Friends of Labour. She had previously worked as a caseworker to an SNP MSP and as a parliamentary researcher to an SNP MP. At the time of declaring her candidacy she was a modern studies teacher.^[7][8][9]

On 25 March 2021, local councillor Kenneth Stevenson was selected by Scottish Labour to contend the by-election. He beat a former MP for the constituency and the chief executive of Scotland in Union, Pamela Nash.^[10][11]

The Scottish Liberal Democrat candidate was Stephen Arrundale, the party's treasurer.^[12] He had previously stood as a candidate for Midlothian in the 2019 General Election.

Result

This section is transcluded from Airdrie and Shotts (UK Parliament constituency). (edit | history)

By-election 2021: Airdrie and Shotts

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	SNP	Anum Qaisar-Javed	10,129	46.4	+1.4
	Labour	Kenneth Stevenson	8,372	38.4	+6.5
	Conservative	Ben Callaghan	2,812	12.9	−4.7
	Liberal Democrats	Stephen Arrundale	220	1.0	−2.6
	SDP	Neil Manson	151	0.7	N/A
	Scottish Unionist	Jonathan Stanley	59	0.3	N/A
	Reform UK	Martyn Greene	45	0.2	N/A
	UKIP	Donald Mackay	39	0.2	N/A
Majority			1,757	8.0	−5.1
Turnout			21,827	34.3	−28.0
Registered electors			63,705
	SNP hold		Swing	−2.5

Elections in the 2010s

2019 notional result [a] [13]
Party		Vote	%
	Scottish National Party	20,667	44.6
	Labour	15,343	33.1
	Conservative	8,000	17.3
	Liberal Democrats	1,652	3.6
	Scottish Greens	676	1.5
Majority		5,324	11.5
Turnout		46,338	65.8
Electorate		70,420

General election 2019: Airdrie and Shotts^[14][15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	SNP	Neil Gray	17,929	45.0	+7.4
	Labour	Helen McFarlane	12,728	31.9	−5.2
	Conservative	Lorraine Nolan	7,011	17.6	−5.6
	Liberal Democrats	William Crossman	1,419	3.6	+1.5
	Scottish Green	Rosemary McGowan	685	1.7	N/A
Majority			5,201	13.1	+12.6
Turnout			39,772	62.3	+3.1
Registered electors			64,011
	SNP hold		Swing	+6.3

General election 2017: Airdrie and Shotts^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	SNP	Neil Gray	14,291	37.6	−16.3
	Labour	Helen McFarlane	14,096	37.1	+3.0
	Conservative	Jennifer Donnellan	8,813	23.2	+15.5
	Liberal Democrats	Ewan McRobert	802	2.1	+0.6
Majority			195	0.5	−19.3
Turnout			38,002	59.2	−6.9
Registered electors			64,146
	SNP hold		Swing	−9.7

General election 2015: Airdrie and Shotts^[17][18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	SNP	Neil Gray	23,887	53.9	+30.4
	Labour	Pamela Nash	15,108	34.1	−24.1
	Conservative	Eric Holford	3,389	7.7	−1.0
	UKIP	Matthew Williams	1,088	2.5	N/A
	Liberal Democrats	John Love	678	1.5	−6.6
	Independent	Deryck Beaumont	136	0.3	N/A
Majority			8,779	19.8
Turnout			44,286	66.3	+8.8
Registered electors			66,792
	SNP gain from Labour		Swing	+27.2

See also: Opinion polling in United Kingdom constituencies, 2010–15 § Airdrie and Shotts

General election 2010: Airdrie and Shotts^[19][20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Pamela Nash	20,849	58.2	−0.8
	SNP	Sophia Coyle	8,441	23.5	+7.0
	Conservative	Ruth Whitfield	3,133	8.7	−1.2
	Liberal Democrats	John Love	2,898	8.1	−3.3
	Independent	John McGeechan	528	1.5	N/A
Majority			12,408	34.7	−7.8
Turnout			35,849	57.5	+4.0
Registered electors			62,364
	Labour hold		Swing	−3.9

Elections in the 2000s

General election 2005: Airdrie and Shotts^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	John Reid	19,568	59.0
	SNP	Malcolm Balfour	5,484	16.5
	Liberal Democrats	Helen Watt	3,792	11.4
	Conservative	Stuart Cottis	3,271	9.9
	Scottish Socialist	Fraser Coats	706	2.1
	Scottish Independence Party	Joseph Rowan	337	1.0
Majority			14,084	42.5
Turnout			33,158	53.5
	Labour hold		Swing

General election 2001: Airdrie and Shotts^[22]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Helen Liddell	18,478	58.2	−3.6
	SNP	Alison Lindsay	6,138	19.3	−5.1
	Liberal Democrats	John Love	2,376	7.5	+3.3
	Conservative	Gordon McIntosh	1,960	6.2	−2.7
	Scottish Unionist	Mark Dempsey	1,439	4.5	N/A
	Scottish Socialist	Kenny McGuigan	1,171	3.7	N/A
	Socialist Labour	Chris Herriot	174	0.5	N/A
Majority			12,340	38.9	+1.5
Turnout			31,736	54.4	−17.0
Registered electors			58,349
	Labour hold		Swing	+0.7

Elections in the 1990s

General election 1997: Airdrie and Shotts^[23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Labour	Helen Liddell	25,460	61.8
	SNP	Keith Robertson	10,048	24.4
	Conservative	Nicholas Brook	3,660	8.9
	Liberal Democrats	Richard Wolseley	1,719	4.2
	Referendum	Crawford Semple	294	0.7
Majority			15,412	37.4
Turnout			41,181	71.4
	Labour win (new seat)

See also

• Scottish Westminster Constituencies

Notes

1. Estimate of the 2019 general election result as if the revised boundaries recommended under the 2023 boundary review were in place

References

1. Sim, Philip [@BBCPhilipSim] (24 March 2021). "This is now confirmed: Neil Gray has gone from being MP for Airdrie and Shotts to the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead (...which is one way of quitting Westminster) - and as of tomorrow will be the SNP candidate to be MSP for Airdrie and Shotts. By-election incoming" (Tweet). Retrieved 24 March 2021 – via Twitter.
2. Tonner, Judith (26 March 2021). "Two elections in one week for Airdrie & Shotts voters". Daily Record. Archived from the original on 16 April 2021. Retrieved 26 March 2021.
3. "SNP holds Airdrie and Shotts seat in by-election". BBC News. 14 May 2021. Archived from the original on 14 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
4. Tonner, Judith (6 November 2020). "Neil Gray to contest Airdrie constituency at Holyrood election". Daily Record. Archived from the original on 1 March 2021. Retrieved 24 March 2021.
5. Gray, Neil [@neilgraysnp] (23 March 2021). "This afternoon, in a debate starting at around 1.45pm I am eighth on the list and will be making my final speech to the Commons" (Tweet). Retrieved 24 March 2021 – via Twitter.
6. Tonner, Judith (8 September 2020). "Candidate for potential Airdrie by-election declared in anticipation of vacancy". Daily Record. Archived from the original on 17 January 2021. Retrieved 6 April 2021.
7. Cassidy, Jane (27 March 2021). "Labour and SNP announce their by-election candidates". The National. Archived from the original on 27 March 2021. Retrieved 19 April 2021.
8. Rodgers, Hannah (19 April 2021). "SNP election candidate Anum Qaisar-Javed on Ramadan, racism and role models". The Herald. Archived from the original on 28 April 2021. Retrieved 28 April 2021.
9. Farquharson, Gregor (14 April 2021). "Lanarkshire by-election candidate opens up opens up about dealing with racist abuse online daily". Daily Record. Reach. Archived from the original on 17 April 2021. Retrieved 18 April 2021.
10. Airdrie & Shotts Labour [@AirdrieShottsLP] (25 March 2021). "Tonight, Airdrie and Shotts CLP selected @shottsman7 to be our candidate in the upcoming Westminster by-election. Congratulations Kenny, and thank you to @pamela_nash for her hard work also during the selection process" (Tweet). Retrieved 25 March 2021 – via Twitter.
11. Webster, Laura (26 March 2021). "Scotland in Union boss fails in bid to win back job as a Labour MP". The National. Archived from the original on 26 March 2021. Retrieved 26 March 2021.
12. "Voters go back to polls for Airdrie and Shotts by-election". BBC News. 12 May 2021. Archived from the original on 20 December 2021. Retrieved 20 December 2021.
13. "Airdrie and Shotts notional election - December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
14. "UK Parliamentary Elections 2019". North Lanarkshire Council. Retrieved 16 November 2019.^{[dead link]}
15. "Airdrie & Shotts parliamentary constituency - Election 2019". BBC News. Retrieved 16 December 2019.
16. "Election Data 2017". Politics Resources. Archived from the original on 1 April 2018. Retrieved 31 March 2018.
17. "Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
18. "Election results". North Lanarkshire Council. 5 May 2015. Archived from the original on 18 May 2015.
19. "Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
20. "Election 2010 - Constituency - Airdrie & Shotts". BBC News. 7 May 2010. Retrieved 6 October 2023.
21. "Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
22. "Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
23. "Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.

External links

55.845°N 3.892°W / 55.845; -3.892

• Politics Resources (Election results from 1922 onwards)
• Electoral Calculus (Election results from 1955 onwards)
• Airdrie and Shotts UK Parliament constituency (boundaries April 2005 – May 2024) at MapIt UK
• Airdrie and Shotts UK Parliament constituency (boundaries from June 2024) at MapIt UK