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2023 Democratic Republic of the Congo general election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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General elections were held in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on 20 December 2023. Combined elections were held for the President, 484 of the 500 members of the National Assembly, 700 of the 716 elected members of the 26 provincial assemblies, and for the first time under the new constitution, 951 members of a scaled down number of commune (municipal) councils. On election day, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI), in violation of electoral law, extended voting to 21 December for polling stations that had not opened on 20 December.[1][2] Some polling stations stayed open on their own accord for up to six extra days.[3]
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The election saw President Félix Tshisekedi win in a landslide victory with 73% of the vote, far ahead of his closest rival, former Katanga Province Governor Moïse Katumbi, who only won 18%, mostly from Katanga region. In the parliamentary election, while Tshisekedi's party only won 69 of the seats, his governing coalition, the Sacred Union of the Nation (USN), won nearly 450, more than 90% of the seats in the National Assembly. As Tshisekedi is dependent on his coalition, he had to compete for other key offices for his party through complex, time consuming negotiations, taking five months to form a government.[3][4]
Preparations for the election were marred by significant shortcomings, including the distribution of poorly printed voter cards, many of which had become unreadable by the time of the election as they were issued earlier in the year. Voting was further disrupted by missing voter lists and other essential paperwork, broken or absent machinery, delayed openings of polling stations, and intimidation by security forces or individuals acting on behalf of candidates. These widespread issues contributed to the lowest voter turnout ever recorded, potentially disenfranchising millions of voters.[3]
The election, while not excluding any candidate from running and being comparatively peaceful relative to previous elections, had extensive fraud. A domestic observation mission led jointly by the Catholic and various Protestant churches stated that "numerous irregularities affected the integrity of the results of all the polls in some places," such as reports of candidates acquiring voting machines and placing them in their private residences. The opposition called for a rerun of the presidential election but did not take their case to the Constitutional Court, which they see as lacking independence, instead urging street protests that failed to gain momentum. Riots did break out in Katanga over the parliamentary election, as USN members, sometimes fielding no-name candidates, had performed well compared to the presidential election. Katangan elites, excluded from national power in favor of Tshisekedi's allies from his native Kasaï region, are among Tshisekedi's most prominent critics and clashed with Kasaïans, whom many see as "immigrants," over local power in the region. International Crisis Group (ICG) predicted that Katanga could later oppose Tshisekedi more strongly, as opposition could call for greater power and resources to devolve to provincial authorities or "create momentum behind demands for secession, which [had] been largely rhetorical" prior to the ICG's report.[3]
While election irregularities played a part in the opposition's poor performance, other factors included the opposition's failure to unite behind a single candidate, the decision of prominent opposition figures Martin Fayulu and Joseph Kabila to have their coalitions sit out the election, their campaign strategies, and the failure to build grassroots party structures in other regions. In contrast, Tshisekedi had the backing of major political figures, which provided him with a broad territorial network and a foothold in various regions of the country.[3][5]
CENI later cancelled results in two constituencies and disqualified 82 candidates, mostly members of the USN, from national and local races for fraud. While the move to target mostly USN members may appear to further accountability, analysts,[who?] as well as the Catholic Church, stated that it created a precedent for CENI policing its own work and may have underestimated the amount of fraud.[3]
Elections were not organized in the territories of Kwamouth, Masisi, and Rutshuru due to ongoing armed conflict.
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Background
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2018 electoral fraud
President Félix Tshisekedi's election in 2018 was extremely controversial, with most independent observers, including the Catholic Church, believing that opposition candidate Martin Fayulu had actually won in a landslide. They believe that outgoing President Joseph Kabila, realising that a chosen successor candidate couldn't credibly win, struck a deal with Tshisekedi to make him president while Kabila governed jointly with him.[6]
According to Jacques Mukena, Senior Governance Researcher at Ebuteli Institute, the election will most likely not be completely free and fair, but believes Tshisekedi and CENI are aware of the fact that they would be under closer scrutiny than in 2018 because more local and international observers would be watching. Additionally, candidates such as Delly Sesanga have already declared that they would believe the Catholic Church's opinion of who won the elections, not CENI's.[6]
According to the Crisis Group, there is a fear of a wider political crisis if losing candidates or their backers do not accept the presidential results. Any crisis, while not inevitable, could worsen the already dire situation in the east.[7]
On 20 November, Fayulu advocated for transparent and impartial elections, he insisted that the Congolese "must no longer accept someone stealing their victory."[8]
Insecurity
The Democratic Republic of Congo has suffered from almost constant conflict in the east for the past 30 years. More recently, violence surged in the region after a new rebellion by the M23 group, supported by Rwanda, caused much of the North Kivu province to be occupied by rebels. This upsurge in violence comes as MONUSCO is expected to begin its "accelerated" withdrawal, as requested by Tshisekedi, after an almost 25-year presence in the country.[9][10]
Due to this, two territories of the province will not be able to vote normally, but if Goma were to fall as it did in 2012, the whole process would be compromised.[9]
With the possibility of over a million voters being disenfranchised from instability, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has proposed sending a regional intervention force into eastern DRC to try to stabilise the area. The SADC Mission in the DRC was first proposed in May and was meant to go in by September but has been postponed, with its most recent summit concerning finance.[6]
According to the Institute for Security Studies, it's hard to imagine the mission could go in and suppress all of eastern DRC's many armed rebel groups in time to enfranchise those voters.[6]
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Schedule
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Selected dates from the electoral calendar:[11][12]
- 24 December 2022—17 March 2023: Voter registration.
- 24 December—23 January (30 days): Registration in Kongo Central, Kinshasa, Kwango, Kwilu, Mai-Ndombe, Equateur, Mongala, Nord-Ubangi, Sud-Ubangi and Tshuapa provinces.
- 25 January—23 February (30 days): Registration in Kasaï, Kasaï-Central, Kasaï-Oriental, Lomami, Sankuru, Haut-Lomami, Haut-Katanga, Lualaba and Tanganyika provinces; also for expatriates in South Africa, Belgium, and France.
- 16 February—17 March (30 days): Registration in Bas-Uélé, Haut-Uélé, Ituri, Tshopo, North Kivu, South Kivu, and Maniema provinces; also for expatriates in Canada and the United States.
- 21 May 2023: Publication of registration statistics per electoral district—registration totals will determine the size of the provincial assemblies and of the local councils (commune, sector, and chiefdom councils). They are also used to apportion seats to electoral districts.
- 23 May 2023—15 June 2023: Proportional allocation of seats to electoral districts based on voter registration numbers; drafted and passed as a law.
- 26 June 2023—8 October 2023: Candidate registration.
- 26 June—15 July (20 days): Candidates for the National Assembly.
- 3 August—22 August (20 days): Candidates for provincial assemblies and commune councils.
- 9 September–8 October (30 days): Candidates for president.
- 19 November 2023—18 December 2023: Electoral campaigns.
- 19 November: Start of 30 day campaigns for president, National Assembly, and provincial assemblies.
- 4 December: Start of 15 day campaigns for commune councils.
- 20 December 2023: Election day.
- 20 January 2024: Presidential swearing in ceremony.
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Electoral system
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Presidential election
The president is elected by plurality voting in one round.[13] For the first time, some Congolese living abroad were able to vote in the presidential election. These were those living in Belgium, Canada, France, South Africa, and the United States.
National Assembly, provincial assembly, and commune council elections
Electoral districts and seat allocation
Except for the four National Assembly districts of Kinshasa, all electoral districts are simply administrative subdivisions of the country; the four exceptions are themselves groupings of administrative divisions of Kinshasa.
At the start of every five year election cycle voter registration takes place. The results for each province, including Kinshasa, are first used to proportionally distribute the 500 National Assembly seats and the 780 total seats of the provincial assemblies to the provinces. This determines the size of the provincial delegation in the National Assembly and the size of each provincial assembly. The second phase proportionally allocates provincial seats to each assembly district—in the case of the provincial assemblies, up to 10% of seats are reserved for the co-option of traditional leaders and are not allocated to an assembly district.
For the 2023 election, voter registration could not be carried out in some areas of the territories of Kwamouth, Masisi, and Rutshuru due to armed conflict. To deal with this, it was decided to postpone the elections in these territories, to reserve the same number of seats for these districts as they had in 2018, and to proportionally distribute the remaining seats to the other districts. The result was that only 484 National Assembly seats and 700 provincial assembly seats were to be contested.
Lumumbaville elected its first National Assembly deputy and its first deputy to the Provincial Assembly of Sankuru. This was the only new legislative district of the 2024-2028 legislature.[16]
In the case of a commune council election, the commune is the single multi-member electoral district with the number of members determined by the number of registered voters in the commune according to a fixed table.
Getting on the ballot
Each candidate for these elections are part of a three-person ticket which includes candidates for first and second substitute. It is not unusual for a candidate to run for both a national and provincial assembly seat in which case they can keep but one and a substitute takes the other.
A new rule requires participating political parties and alliances to contest at least 60% of the seats up for renewal in an election. So for example, each party/alliance had to register at least 290 candidates to participate in the National Assembly election.[17]
Election method
The method by which members are elected are different in districts having more than one seat, the most common case, from those that end up with only one seat.[18]
In multiple-member districts, members are elected by open list proportional representation, with seats assigned using the largest remainder method. Candidates who win more than half the vote in their district are automatically assigned a seat.[19] Otherwise, a party or independent candidate must meet an election threshold to qualify for seat assignment.[18] The election thresholds for the National Assembly, a provincial assembly, or a commune council are 1% of the vote nationally, 3% provincially, and 10% in the commune, respectively.[20]
In single member districts, members are elected using first-past-the-post voting.[18]
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Candidates
The 26 official presidential candidates were:[21]
Active up to election day
- Tony Bolamba
- Jean-Claude Baende
- Martin Fayulu, leader of the Engagement for Citizenship and Development
- Marie-Josée Ifoku
- Moïse Katumbi, leader of the Together for the Republic
- Denis Mukwege, winner of the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize
- Adolphe Muzito, former prime minister (2008–2012)
- Enoch Ngila
- Théodore Ngoy
- Radjabho Tebabho Soborabo
- Félix Tshisekedi, incumbent president (2018–present) and leader of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress
- Constant Mutamba
- Justin Mudekereza
- Georges Buse Falay
- Rex Kazadi
- Abraham Ngalasi
- Nkema Liloo Bokonzi
- Floribert Anzuluni
- André Masalu
Withdrew in favor of another candidate
- Franck Diongo, withdrew in favor of Moïse Katumbi[22]
- Seth Kikuni, withdrew in favor of Moïse Katumbi[22]
- Matata Ponyo Mapon, former prime minister (2012–2016) withdrew in favor of Moïse Katumbi[23]
- Delly Sesanga, withdrew in favor of Moïse Katumbi[24]
- Joëlle Bile, withdrew in favor of Félix Tshisekedi[25]
- Patrice Mwamba, withdrew in favor of Félix Tshisekedi[25]
- Noël Tshiani, withdrew in favor of Félix Tshisekedi[25]
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Opinion polls
Opinion polling is rare in the Democratic Republic of the Congo due to poor roads and lack of electricity. Nevertheless, a survey conducted by GeoPoll Socio-Political Barometer in the second quarter of 2023 found that voters expressed significant discontent with the governance under Tshisekedi, assigning him a satisfaction rating of 49.7%. Despite this, the survey also suggested that Tshisekedi would secure a second term thanks in part to perceived improvements, such as his free education initiative, and partly due to a divided opposition.[6][26]
An earlier 2022 poll by the same group found unemployment and insecurity to be the most cited dysfunctional areas, closely followed by the state of the country's roads and rising prices. On the other hand, free education was found to be the most favorable policy.[27]
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Conduct
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Pre-election violence
While the lead-up to the election was generally calm, several violent incidents were reported. On 14 July 2023, Chérubin Okende Senga, spokesperson for ENSEMBLE and former transport minister, was fatally shot in Kinshasa. The murder, described by Katumbi as a "political assassination," led to legal action by Senga's relatives in Brussels, accusing the head of the DRC's military intelligence of involvement.[28][29] Later in the year, a Katumbi rally in Moanda was broken up by live rounds, injuring several people. The provincial government blamed Katumbi's guards, stating that they fired warning shots after the crowd grew rowdy. Katumbi blamed the police.[30]
Violent clashes between supporters of different parties were also observed across various provinces, with candidates facing death threats on the campaign trail. On November 4, suspected UDPS activists attacked the convoy of Martin Fayulu in Tshikapa, Kasai province. On November 7, UDPS supporters clashed with ENSEMBLE supporters at a rally in Kasumbalesa, followed by ransacking of the local UDPS headquarters by Ensemble supporters.
On November 28, during Katumbi's march in Kindu, UDPS supporters threw stones at Dido Kakisingi, leader of ENSEMBLE's Maniema youth league, to then be run over and killed by a truck belonging to the campaign team of Maniema Governor Afani Idrissa Mangala.[31] After his killing, more UDPS supporters were seen throwing stones, and gunshots were recorded, presumably from the Congolese National Police.[32] Two people were sentenced to five years in jail in relation to the killing of Kakisingi.
At least 19 deaths, including two candidates, have been attributed to election-related violence.[33]
Election preparations
CENI was reportedly woefully underprepared for the election. Due to the state of the country's roads compared to its size and the lack of funding, CENI was forced to resort to doing almost everything via plane. As transporting by air is costly, CENI had to get Egypt to send two C-130 Hercules planes to help deliver ballot papers at the last moment. Additionally, CENI begged the UN to use its aircraft.[34]
Election day
On election day voting offices were scheduled to open at 6 AM, but delays were observed nationwide, resulting in the formation of exceptionally long lines. Various logistical issues further compounded the situation, including the late arrival of materials, malfunctioning voting machines, failed batteries intended to sustain their operation, and instances of lost ballot papers. This prolonged waiting period reportedly led to frustration among poorly informed and/or impatient individuals, resulting in attacks on poll workers and polling stations. Additionally, 11,000 voting stations didn't even vote at all or were not counted.[34]
According to Schadrack Mukad, an adjunct executive national secretary of the Civil Society Organization for Peace in Congo, which deployed 75,000 observers during the vote, "there were cases of machines that were seized by certain candidates and others by certain agents of CENI outside voting places.” He expressed concern about the involvement of certain politico-administrative authorities and electoral candidates, who he says diverted CENI agents away from polling stations for a significant duration. Mukad attributed these violations to members affiliated with Tshisekedi's coalition.[34]
Controversially, the election necessitated an extension into a second day, a move which was declared illegal by local observers and civil society, and parts of the country were still casting ballots five days after election day.[35]
CENI recognised cases of fraud, vandalism and intimidation, as well as the use of illegal voting machines.[35]
Analysis
According to Nicolas Niarchos, in his piece for The New York Review of Books, CENI's polling station data, "although impressive in detail", showed "strange" results. In the Fayulu stronghold of Kinshasa, for example, only 1,756,303 votes were counted–just ten percent of the capital's population.[34]
Tafi Mhaka, in an opinion piece for Aljazeera, described the elections as "shambolic," calling for the Southern African Development Community to uphold electoral standards in every single member country.[36]
Alternatively, Albert Kasanda, in his piece for The Conversation, partially attributes the opposition's failure to unite behind a single candidate and their campaign strategies, compared to Tshisekedi, who had the backing of major political figures which provided him a broad territorial network and a foothold in various regions of the country.[5]
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Results
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President
National Assembly
Prominent opposition figure Kabila's People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy and his coalition, the Common Front for Congo (FFC), just like with the presidential election, did not partake in the electoral process, citing unmet demands such as representation of the FCC within CENI, an independent, balanced constitutional court, a consensual electoral law that guarantees greater transparency, security for opposition members, and the restoration of security in the eastern part of the DRC as well as in the province of Mai-Ndombe.[39] Another prominent opposition figure, Fayulu, blocked his party from participating in the parliamentary election.[40]
The provisional results, initially due on January 3, 2024, were delayed by 10 days due to reported fraud and irregularities denounced by CENI.[41] Later, on 4 February, 2024, the CENI published the remaining provisional results of the elections for national and provincial deputies in the electoral districts of Budjala, Bomongo, Ilebo, Kikwit, Kole, Makanza and Mobayi-Mbongo.[42] According to the provisional results, 44 parties and/or political groupings had met the threshold for representation in the National Assembly.[43] The results came from 177 constituencies, excluding Masimanimba in Kwilu and Yakoma in Nord-Ubangi as they were annulled for fraud, and the territories of Masisi and Rutshuru in North Kivu and Kwamouth in Maï-Ndombe, where elections were not held due to the activism of armed groups.[43][44] Additionally, 82 candidates for the national, provincial and local legislative election had their candidacy invalidated for electoral fraud and other illicit acts.[45]
While Tshisekedi's party, the UDPS, only won 69 of the seats, his governing coalition, the Sacred Union of the Nation (USN), won nearly 450, more than 90% of the seats in the National Assembly.[3]
Matata Ponyo Mapon, Constant Mutamba, Jean-Claude Baende and Adolphe Muzito, who also stood in the presidential election, were elected in Kindu, Lubao, Mbandaka and Kikwit respectively, while a large number of the president's allies, including the two presidents of the houses of parliament: Christophe Mboso and Bahati Lukuebo, Prime Minister Sama Lukonde, and the candidate deputy prime ministers Vital Kamerhe, Jean-Pierre Lihau and Christophe Lutundula, won their seats once again.[46][47]
Provincial assemblies
Composition of provincial assemblies
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Aftermath
On 6 January 2024, Katumbi released a statement disputing the results of the election on the grounds of "massive fraud and treachery" and calling for the resignation of Denis Kadima, the head of the Independent National Electoral Commission. Two days later, his party stated that he had been placed under house arrest, with a spokesman reporting the presence of "heavily armed soldiers traveling in armoured vehicles surrounding his house".[55] The security forces were subsequently ordered to withdraw by the provincial governor Jacques Kyabula Katwe.[56]
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References
Further reading
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