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2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democratic governor Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron. If Cameron had won, he would have become Kentucky's first African-American governor. This was the only statewide victory in 2023 for Democrats in Kentucky.
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This race was one of two Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2023 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. The other was held in Louisiana, which Jeff Landry flipped for the Republicans. This was the first gubernatorial election in the state's history in which both major party candidates had previously held the position of attorney general; Beshear held the position from 2016 to 2019, after which he was succeeded by Cameron. Beshear became the third two-consecutive-term governor in Kentucky history.
Beshear's victory has been attributed to his broad popularity among Democrats and independents, as well as approximately half of Republicans in the state.[1] Compared to 2019, Beshear most improved his performance in suburban precincts; he increased his margins by nearly 6 percentage points in suburban areas, compared to 4.5 percentage points in urban and rural precincts.[2]
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Background
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A socially conservative southern state, Kentucky is considered safely Republican in federal elections, with Republicans holding both of its U.S. Senate seats and all but one of its U.S. House seats. In the 2020 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump carried Kentucky by 26 percentage points. However, the state was much more competitive as recently as the 1990s, when it voted for Bill Clinton twice, and Democrats remain competitive in many local and some state-level elections.
Beshear was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating incumbent Republican Matt Bevin, who had become widely unpopular for signing a pension reform bill for teachers and opposing a subsequent teachers' strike. In that same year, Cameron was elected attorney general, becoming the first African-American to be elected to that position.
Cameron gained national recognition as attorney general, especially due to his involvement in the Breonna Taylor case in 2020. He spoke at the 2020 Republican National Convention on August 25, 2020.[3] In September 2020, Cameron appeared on a shortlist of potential nominees to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court by President Trump.[4]
On May 16, 2023, Cameron won the Republican nomination with 47.7% of the vote, a 26% margin over the second-place candidate, and Beshear won the Democratic nomination with 91.3% of the vote over two perennial candidates.[5][6]
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Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Andy Beshear, incumbent governor[7][8]
- Running mate: Jacqueline Coleman, incumbent lieutenant governor[7]
Eliminated in primary
- Peppy Martin, businesswoman, consultant, perennial candidate, and Republican nominee for governor in 1999[9][8]
- Geoff Young, perennial candidate[a][10][8]
Endorsements
Andy Beshear
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Fundraising
Beshear is the only candidate who has filed a financial disclosure.
Results
Beshear
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
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Republican primary
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Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Jacob Clark[8]
- David Cooper, member of the Kentucky Army National Guard[10][8]
- Kelly Craft, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations[17][8]
- Running mate: Max Wise, state senator[18]
- Eric Deters, suspended attorney[18][19][8]
- Running mate: Wesley Deters, former Park Hills city councilor (no relation to Eric Deters)[18]
- Bob DeVore, former McCreary County school board member and perennial candidate[b][10][8]
- Mike Harmon, Kentucky state auditor[20][8]
- Alan Keck, mayor of Somerset[21][8]
- Dennis Ormerod[8]
- Ryan Quarles, Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture[22][8]
- Johnny Rice, militia activist and former police officer[10][8]
- Robbie Smith, high school teacher[10][8]
Did not file
- Anthony Moore, wellwater drilling contractor[10]
Withdrew
Declined
- Ralph Alvarado, state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2019 (appointed commissioner of the Tennessee Department of Health)[25]
- Allison Ball, Kentucky State Treasurer[26] (running for state auditor)[27]
- Matt Bevin, former governor[28]
- James Comer, U.S. representative for Kentucky's 1st congressional district and candidate for governor in 2015[29] (endorsed Craft)[17][30]
- Max Wise, state senator[31] (ran for lieutenant governor with Craft)[18]
Endorsements
Daniel Cameron
Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021; 2025–present)[32]
State legislators
- Kevin Bratcher, state representative from the 29th district (1997–present)[33]
Individuals
- Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America (1993–present)[34]
- Mark Levin, radio host[35]
Organizations
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America[34]
- Kentucky Right to Life Committee (co-endorsed with Harmon and Quarles)[36]
Kelly Craft
Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pompeo, 70th United States secretary of state (2018–2021), 8th director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), and former U.S. representative from KS-04 (2011–2017)[37]
Statewide officials
- Ron DeSantis, 46th Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. representative from FL-06 (2013–2018)[38]
U.S. senators
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present) and candidate for President in 2016[39]
U.S. representatives
- James Comer, U.S. representative from KY-01 (2016–present) and former Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture (2012–2016)[17]
State legislators
- Josh Branscum, state representative from the 83rd district (2021–present)[40]
- Jason Nemes, state representative from the 33rd district (2017–present)[40]
- Michael Pollock, state representative from 51st district (2021–present)[40]
- Steve Riley, state representative from the 23rd district (2017–present)[40]
- Max Wise, state senator from the 16th district (2015–present) (Craft's running mate)[18]
Individuals
- Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur and 2024 presidential candidate[41]
- Jeff Roe, political consultant and strategist[40]
Mike Harmon
Organizations
- Kentucky Right to Life Committee (co-endorsed with Cameron and Quarles)[36]
Savannah Maddox (withdrawn)
Ryan Quarles
State legislators
- Matt Castlen, state senator from the 8th district (2019–present)[44]
- Paul Hornback, former state senator from the 20th district (2011–2023)[44]
- Jason Howell, state senator from the 1st district (2021–present)[44]
- Mike Wilson, state senator from the 32nd district (2011–present)[44]
- 21 state representatives[44]
Organizations
- Kentucky Right to Life Committee (co-endorsed with Harmon and Cameron)[36]
Newspapers
- Lexington Herald-Leader (primary only)[14]
Fundraising
Financial disclosures for major candidates are below:
Debates
Polling
Graphical summary
 | This graph was using the legacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to the new Chart extension. |
Results
Cameron
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
Quarles
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Craft
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
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General election
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A viral ad featuring Hadley Duvall, who had been raped and impregnated by her stepfather at age 12, was widely credited by Republican leadership for contributing to Beshear's victory, as Kentucky was one of 12 states that had anti-abortion laws that allowed no exceptions for rape or incest, which was initially supported by Cameron.[51]
Predictions
Debates
Fundraising
Endorsements
Andy Beshear (D)
U.S. representatives
- Morgan McGarvey, U.S. representative from KY-03 (2023–present)[58]
Statewide officials
- Steve Beshear, former governor of Kentucky (2007–2015) (candidate's father)[59]
- Collin O'Mara, former Delaware Secretary of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (2009–2014)[60]
State legislators
- Rocky Adkins, former state representative from the 99th district (1987–2019) and state house majority leader[61]
- Gerald Neal, state senator from the 33rd district (1989–present)[58]
Municipal officials
- John Hunt, Floyd County sheriff (2014–present)[62][63][64]
- Ramon Pineiroa, Nelson County sheriff (2020–present)[63]
- John Ward, Hardin County sheriff (2014–present)[62][63][64]
Newspapers and other media
Individuals
- Jack Harlow, rapper and actor[67]
Organizations
- Communications Workers of America[68]
- Fairness Campaign[69]
- Kentucky AFL–CIO[11]
- Kentucky National Education Association[70]
- Kentucky Professional Fire Fighters[71]
- National Wildlife Federation Action Fund[60]
- United Mine Workers of America[13]
Political parties
Daniel Cameron (R)
Executive branch officials
- Ben Carson, 17th U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (2017–2021)[72]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[32]
U.S. senators
- Ted Budd, U.S. senator from North Carolina (2023–present)[73]
- Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader (2007–2015, 2021–present) from Kentucky (1985–present)[74]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[75]
- JD Vance, U.S. senator from Ohio (2023–2025)[76]
U.S. representatives
- Andy Barr, U.S. representative from KY-06 (2013–present)[77]
- James Comer, U.S. representative from KY-01 (2016–present) and former Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture (2012–2016)[74]
- Brett Guthrie, U.S. representative from KY-02 (2009–present)[78]
- Thomas Massie, U.S. representative from KY-04 (2012–present)[79]
- Hal Rogers, U.S. representative from KY-05 (1981–present)[80]
Governors
- Brian Kemp, Governor of Georgia (2019–present)[81]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Governor of Arkansas (2023–present)[82]
- Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[83]
State senators
- Gary Boswell, state senator from the 8th district (2023–present)[84]
- Robby Mills, state senator from the 4th district (2019–present) (candidate's running mate)[85]
- Brandon Smith, state senator from the 30th district (2008–present)[86]
- Lindsey Tichenor, state senator from the 6th district (2023–present)[87]
State representatives
- Kevin Bratcher, state representative from the 29th district (1997–present)[33]
- Myron Dossett, state representative from the 9th district (2007–present)[88]
- Jim Gooch, state representative from the 12th district (1995–present)[84]
- Kevin Jackson, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present)[89]
- D.J. Johnson, state representative from the 13th district (2017–2019, 2023–present)[84]
- Scott Lewis, state representative from the 14th district (2019–present)[84]
- David Meade, state representative from the 80th district (2013–present)[80]
- Suzanne Miles, state representative from the 7th district (2013–present)[84]
Municipal officials
- Jerry Gilliam, Christian County Judge-Executive (2023–present)[88]
- Mark Metcalf, Garrard County Attorney (2010–present)[88]
- Berl Perdue Jr., Clark County sheriff (2007–present)[90]
Individuals
- Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America (1993–present)[34]
- Mark Levin, radio host[35]
- Kelley Paul, political consultant and wife of U.S. senator Rand Paul[88]
Organizations
- American Principles Project[91]
- Club for Growth[92]
- Kentucky Right to Life Committee[36]
- Kentucky State Fraternal Order of Police[90]
- National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund[93]
- Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America[34]
Polling
Graphical summary
| This graph was using the legacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to the new Chart extension. |
Hypothetical polling
Andy Beshear vs. Kelly Craft
Andy Beshear vs. Mike Harmon
Andy Beshear vs. Ryan Quarles
Results
Beshear won re-election by a 5% margin.[107] Key to his victory was his performance in the state's two most populous counties, Jefferson and Fayette (home to the cities of Louisville and Lexington, respectively), each of which he carried with more than 70% of the vote. Beshear also over-performed in several Republican-leaning suburban counties in Northern Kentucky and the Bluegrass region, and in several historically Democratic rural counties in the Eastern Coalfield which have swung sharply towards the Republican Party in the 21st century.[108] Beshear's gains in the Eastern Coalfield were attributed to his response to flooding in the region in 2022.[109][110]
By county
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
- Boyle (Largest city: Danville)
- Clark (Largest city: Winchester)
- Daviess (Largest city: Owensboro)
- Letcher (Largest city: Jenkins)
- Nelson (Largest city: Bardstown)
- Perry (Largest city: Hazard)
- Powell (Largest city: Stanton)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Carter (Largest city: Grayson)
- Hancock (Largest city: Hawesville)
By congressional district
Despite winning the election, Beshear won only two of the state's six congressional districts, including one represented by a Republican.[112]
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See also
Notes
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- Green nominee for Kentucky's 45th House district in 2012; Democratic candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2014, 2016, and 2018, Republican candidate in 2020, and Democratic nominee in 2022; Democratic candidate for governor in 2015 and 2019
- Candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2008, 2012, and 2016; candidate for Kentucky's 46th House district in 2010 and nominee in 2020; Republican nominee for Mayor of Louisville in 2014 and candidate in 2018
Partisan clients
- Poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Committee
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References
External links
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