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2024 Arizona Senate election

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2024 Arizona Senate election
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The 2024 Arizona Senate election was held on November 5, 2024. Voters elected members of the Arizona Senate in all 30 of the state's legislative districts to serve a two-year term. Primary elections were held on July 30, 2024.[1]

Quick facts All 30 seats of the Arizona Senate 16 seats needed for a majority, Majority party ...

Prior to the elections, the Republican Party held a narrow majority over the Democratic Party, controlling 16 seats to their 14 seats.

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Background

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Partisan Background

In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump each won 15 of Arizona's 30 legislative districts. Senate District 13, centered around the city of Chandler, which Biden won by 3% in 2020, was the only district Biden won in 2020 which was currently held by a Republican going into the 2024 Arizona Senate election.

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Background

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, Arizona was considered a Republican stronghold, but has become a critical swing state and is seen as a purple state. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016,[2] while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020.[3]

The Arizona Democratic Party has not won outright control of either state legislative chamber since the 1990s. The last time the party won control of both chambers was in the 1960s.[4] Since then, the state's trend towards Democrats and a consolidated effort on flipping control of the legislature has made this election seen as a tossup with both parties having an equal chance to win control of one or both chambers.

Campaign

This election is expected to be one of the most competitive state legislative races in the 2024 election cycle. Most ratings suggest the race to be a toss-up or having Democrats as the slight favorite to win the chamber. Additionally, the state Democratic Party's fundraising advantage is also expected to play a major role in which party wins control of the chamber.[4] If Democrats won both chambers, it would have been the first time that Democrats had a trifecta in the state since 1966.[5]

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Predictions

Statewide

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Competitive districts

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Overview

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Closest races

Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

  1. State Senate district 17, 2%
  2. State Senate district 9, 3.4%
  3. State Senate district 2, 3.67%
  4. State Senate district 4, 3.8% (gain)
  5. State Senate district 13, 6.2%
  6. State Senate district 23, 7.6%

Retiring incumbents

Republicans

Democrats

Incumbents defeated

In primaries

Republicans

In general election

Democrats

Summary of results by district

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* - Incumbent lost renomination

† - Incumbent not seeking re-election

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  1. Republican Shawnna Bolick was appointed to the Senate to fill the seat after Steve Kaiser resigned.[11]
  2. Democrat Flavio Bravo was appointed to the Senate to fill the seat after Raquel Terán resigned.[18]
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Detailed results

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District 1District 2District 3District 4District 5District 6District 7District 8District 9District 10District 11District 12District 13District 14District 15District 16District 17District 18District 19District 20District 21District 22District 23District 24District 25District 26District 27District 28District 29District 30

District 1

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Republican primary results by county:
  Finchem—40-49%
  Finchem —50-59%

Incumbent Senator Ken Bennett faced a strong primary challenge after voting multiple times against conservative bills and stymieing Republican legislation.[19][20][21] The first challenger was Steve Zipperman, a previous primary opponent from 2022, and the second was Mark Finchem, Republican nominee for Secretary of State two years prior. Despite the strong possibility of splitting the vote, both Finchem and Zipperman stayed in the race, with Finchem ultimately prevailing by 15.07% over Bennett.[22] This defeat represented the worst primary performance of any incumbent legislator this cycle in either chamber from either party.

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County results:
  Finchem—60-69%
  Fogel—50-59%
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District 2

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District 3

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District 4

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Results by precinct
  Werner
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Marsh
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Tie
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District 5

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District 6

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District 7

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County results:
  Rogers—60-69%
  Rogers—70-79%
  Creighton—50-59%
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District 8

State representative Melody Hernandez was the only candidate to file for the Democratic primary, but withdrew after her nominating petitions were challenged for having an insufficient number of valid signatures.[24] She was replaced by former Tempe City Councilmember Lauren Kuby on the ballot, who was selected by local precinct committee members in a 39-28 vote over fellow state representative Deborah Nardozzi.[25][26]

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District 9

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Results by precinct
  Burch
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Scantlebury
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
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District 10

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County results:
  Farnsworth—60-69%
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District 11

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District 12

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District 13

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Results by precinct
  Mesnard
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Winters
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%

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District 14

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District 15

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County results:
  Hoffman—60-69%
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District 16

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County results:

  Shope—50-59%
  Shope—60-69%
  Shope—70-79%
  Shope—80-89%
  Seaman—50-59%
  Seaman—60-69%
  Seaman—70-79%
  Seaman—80-89%
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District 17

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District 18

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District 19

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County results:
  Gowan—50-59%
  Gowan—60-69%
  Gowan—70-79%
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District 20

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District 21

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District 22

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District 23

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County results:
  Fernandez—50-59%
  Fernandez—60-69%
  Fernandez—90-100%
  Altherr—50-59%
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District 24

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District 25

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District 26

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District 27

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District 28

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District 29

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District 30

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County results:
  Angius—70-79%
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Notes

  1. Despite coming in first place in the Democratic primary as a write-in candidate, John Skirbst did not advance to the general election.

References

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