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2024 British Columbia general election
Canadian provincial election From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The 2024 British Columbia general election was held on October 19, 2024, to elect 93 members (MLAs) of the Legislative Assembly to serve in the 43rd parliament of the Canadian province of British Columbia.
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The election was the first to be held since a significant redistribution of electoral boundaries was finalised in 2023. The Legislative Assembly also expanded in size from 87 seats to 93 seats. The election saw a broad political realignment in British Columbia;[2] amid a resurgence for the Conservative Party of British Columbia, the official opposition BC United (formerly the BC Liberals) withdrew from the race a little over a month before the election to avoid splitting the vote. BC United formally endorsed the Conservatives, with several BC United candidates either defecting to the Conservatives or standing as independent or unaligned candidates; this marked the party's first absence from a provincial election since 1900.
The NDP won a third term in government and second consecutive majority government, but with a net loss of eight seats. The Conservatives formed the official opposition, with their best electoral performance in 72 years.[3][4]
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Redistribution of electoral districts
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The Electoral Boundaries Commission was required to complete a redistribution of seats following the 2020 general election, and the government subsequently appointed commissioners in October 2021. Their final report was completed April 3, 2023.[5] An act was passed later that year, providing for a consequential increase in seats from 87 to 93, upon the next election.[6] The following changes were made:
- From parts of Surrey-Cloverdale, Surrey-Panorama and Surrey-Fleetwood.
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Background
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Section 23 of British Columbia's Constitution Act provides that general elections occur on the third Saturday in October of the fourth calendar year after the last election.[7][8] The same section, though, makes the fixed election date subject to the lieutenant governor's prerogative to dissolve the Legislative Assembly as they see fit (in practice, on the advice of the province's premier or following a vote of non-confidence).[7][9]
Standings
Retiring incumbents
BC United MLA Karin Kirkpatrick originally announced on February 8, 2024, that she would not seek re-election.[41] However, after the campaign suspension of BC United, she changed her mind and decided to run as an independent candidate.[42]
Withdrawal of BC United
On August 28, 2024, BC United leader and Leader of the Opposition Kevin Falcon announced that the party would pull out of the campaign. Falcon endorsed the BC Conservatives, saying "John Rustad and I haven't always agreed on everything, but one thing is clear: our province cannot take another four years of the NDP". Falcon noted that this was done to prevent vote splitting in competitive ridings.[43]
Mike Bernier (Peace River South) pointed out that Falcon, as leader, only had the power to withdraw the party from the forthcoming contest, but could not do so on behalf of the individual candidates.[44] Elections BC confirmed that that was a correct interpretation of the elections law, and only the candidates could choose to withdraw or to stand as independent or unaffiliated on the ballot.[44] Several BCU candidates were openly considering accepting a Conservative nomination.[45] Bernier confirmed that he had spoken with Karin Kirkpatrick (West Vancouver-Capilano) about the possibility of several of the BCU candidates forming their own alliance or possible new party before the required registration deadline,[44] or even forming a party post-election, as Legislature rules recognize a party as long as it has at least two MLAs.[44]
On September 20, BCU announced that it would not field any paper candidates in this campaign. Under BC's election law, they can still maintain their registration as long as they nominate candidates in the next round (tentatively scheduled for 2028).[46]
There was further fallout in September, when a mailout was sent to BCU's members urging them to renew their membership, under a letterhead bearing the name of John Yap (who had resigned as party president the previous month).[47] It was speculated that the mailing had been previously scheduled but not cancelled upon BCU's staff vacating their offices.[47] BCU also secured a commitment from the Legislature to cover any shortfall in meeting severance obligations for their staff, estimated to cost up to $1 million.[47]
Herb Dhaliwal, a former federal Cabinet minister, attempted to found an organization to be called the New Liberal Party of BC, but found that BCU still controlled the Liberal name under BC's election law.[47] He urged Elections BC to reconsider its decision, saying, "There are lots of people, they're not interested in voting for either [the BCU or the Conservatives], so they feel betrayed and they feel orphaned by what's happened."[48]
Prior to folding, the party had commissioned research to aid in attacks on Conservative nominees. Former MLA and current media personality Jas Johal released a file that was subsequently confirmed to be a working draft, although incomplete.[49] The NDP were making use of the released information.[50]
At the time of BC United's withdrawal, the party had nominated candidates in 56 ridings.[51][e]
- = Incumbent MLA
As a result of some BC United candidates joining the Conservatives, there was a domino effect on some other Conservative candidates already nominated:
Independent wave
40 independent and 14 unaffiliated candidates, a record number, were in the race by the time nominations closed.[62][63] 18 of those candidates were previously BC United candidates or MLAs. This is notable, as only one Independent has been elected to the Legislature in the past 60 years—Vicki Huntington (Delta South) in 2009 and 2013. At the beginning of the campaign, six incumbent MLAs announced that they intended to run as such, of which five had been with BCU and one with the NDP.[64] Karin Kirkpatrick expressed the view that the Conservatives had brought this phenomenon on themselves in believing that BCU members would follow Falcon's lead in switching over. "That’s not how democracy works. People want to run. They’re going to run, and so they’re floundering right now."[64]
Indigenous candidates
Eleven candidates of Indigenous background stood for election—two Conservatives, seven New Democrats and two Greens.[65]
Vote counting
After trials during by-elections in 2022, Elections BC adopted digital voter rolls and electronic tabulation machines for the first time during this election. The digital roll made it possible to cast ballots at any polling location across the province and enabled mail-in ballots returned before the last day of advance voting – October 16 – to be counted instantly (they were previously counted two weeks after Election Day, thus casting doubt in certain close results).[66][67]
The tabulators facilitated the vote count process and it was projected that 98% of votes would be reported one hour after polls close, not accounting for mail-in ballots returned after the last day of advance voting, and close results subject to manual recount.[68]
An atmospheric river event struck southwestern British Columbia from October 18 to 20; rainfall was heaviest in the Lower Mainland on October 19, causing flooding in North Shore communities and Surrey, and several street and highway closures.[69][70] Elections BC stated that paper ballots would be available at voting sites in the event of power outages, and that it had made BC Hydro aware of the locations of voting sites so that they can be prioritized in the event of an outage. While it was suggested that the weather could impact voter turnout, Elections BC stated that a record number of advance ballots had been cast for the election, while the last day of advance voting on October 16 had set a single-day record of 223,000 ballots cast.[71]
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Timeline
2020
- October 24: The 2020 British Columbia general election is held, resulting in a majority government for the BC NDP.
- November 21: Andrew Wilkinson steps aside for an interim leader to be selected for the BC Liberal Party.[87]
- November 23: Shirley Bond is selected as interim leader of the BC Liberal party.[88]
2021
- February 17: Wilkinson officially resigns, triggering a year-long leadership race.[89]
2022
- February 5: Kevin Falcon wins the 2022 British Columbia Liberal Party leadership election.[90]
- June 28: John Horgan announces his intention to step down as premier and as leader of the NDP.[91]
- October 21: David Eby is declared leader of the BC NDP in the 2022 leadership election by acclamation and becomes the premier-designate.
- November 16: BC Liberal members approve the party's name change to "BC United".[92]
- November 18: Eby is sworn in as premier of British Columbia.[93]
2023
- March 31: John Rustad acclaimed as new leader in the 2023 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election to replace outgoing leader Trevor Bolin.[94][95]
- April 12: The BC Liberal Party officially changes its name to BC United.[96]
2024
- January 31: Sonia Furstenau (Cowichan Valley) announces that she will run in Victoria-Beacon Hill.[97]
- February 5: Selina Robinson is removed from cabinet and announces that she will not seek re-election as MLA for Coquitlam-Maillardville.[98] Lisa Beare replaces her as Minister of Advanced Education.[99]
- August 28: Kevin Falcon announces that BC United is suspending its campaign and endorsing the Conservative Party.[100]
- September 21: Writ for general election dropped by the lieutenant governor, for October 19.
- September 28, 1 pm: Deadline for candidate nominations.[101]
- October 19: General election is held.
- October 26–28: Final count is conducted. Mail-in and absentee ballots are counted. Recounts are completed in Surrey City Centre, Juan de Fuca-Malahat, and a partial recount in Kelowna Centre.[102]
- October 28: CBC News projects that the NDP will form government.[103]
- November 7–8: Judicial recounts held in Kelowna Centre, Surrey-Guildford, and a partial judicial recount in Prince George-Mackenzie.[104][105]
- December 12: The BC NDP and BC Greens announce the "Co-operation and Responsible Government Accord"[106][107]
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Campaign
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New Democratic
On September 20, one day before the writ was dropped, the BC New Democratic Party unveiled their campaign bus in Surrey, which is home to some anticipated key ridings, marking the start of their campaign.[108]
On September 23, the BC NDP released a video of Rustad saying he regrets receiving the "so-called [COVID-19] vaccine", as well as claiming the vaccine mandates were about population control.[109] BC NDP leader David Eby criticized these statements, asserting that such beliefs are based on internet conspiracies and that Rustad could not be trusted on health policy.[109]
On September 25, Eby promised his party would provide 25,000 new homes while financing 40% of the purchase price for first-time home buyers, at an annual cost of $1.29 billion.[110] On September 27, he stated that the government would continue its focus on the use of prefabricated homes as a strategy to ease the housing crisis, with the government pre-approving designs for permits and developing skills training programs in consultation with the industry.[111]
Following the Conservative Party's tax rebate proposal, the New Democrats announced their tax relief plan on September 29. Eby announced that $10,000 of individual income will be exempted from annual tax, adding that 90% of taxpayers would save $1,000 per year.[112][113]
On October 1, Bowinn Ma, NDP candidate in North Vancouver-Lonsdale, announced the party would connect West Vancouver and Metrotown, Burnaby with a Bus Rapid Transit line, which will be entirely separated from traffic. In short term, they would also guarantee the existing R2 RapidBus would be extended from Phibbs Exchange to Metrotown.[114]
On October 4, the NDP filed a petition with the Supreme Court of British Columbia seeking to compel Elections BC to change the name of the Conservative Party on ballot papers from "Conservative Party" to "B.C. Conservative Party", on the grounds that Rustad was "pretending to be part of the federal Conservative Party". A court ruling in favour of the NDP would require all ballot papers to be reprinted.[115]
Conservative
On September 21, John Rustad chose to kick off the campaign in CRAB Park, a homeless encampment near Vancouver's Downtown Eastside.[116] In his speech, he emphasized the severity of the addiction issue, as well as the importance of removing the carbon tax and investing in healthcare.[116]
On September 22, Rustad announced that he would close all safe injection sites in the province, and replace them with mental health and addictions treatment centres.[117][118] He referred to the sites as "drug dens", and pledged to end the decriminalization and safe supply policy introduced by the NDP government.[117] In response, NDP leader David Eby and Green leader Sonia Furstenau both condemned the platform, pointing out the closure of safe injection sites would push the drug addicts back on streets.[118] The following day, Elenore Sturko clarified that the party did not plan to immediately close all of the safe injection sites at once as implicated by Rustad, but transition them to treatment centres gradually. Sturko stated that "this is about transitioning people, not medicating them", and that "we need to make sure the model is supported medically".[119]
On September 23, Rustad revealed the Conservatives' plan for tax rebates to alleviate high housing costs, which he claimed would be the greatest tax cut in BC history.[120] The rebate would allow renters and homeowners with mortgage to exempt up to $3,000 per month from their provincial income tax. The program would start in 2026, where the exemption would begin with $1,500 per month, costing $900 million for the first year. The exemption amount would increase by $500 each year, and the final annual cost would be at $3.5 billion.[121][122]
On September 25, Sturko requested an investigation by the Registrar of Lobbyists for BC against Ravi Kahlon, the incumbent Minister of Housing. She alleged the minister might be involved in a conflict of interest as his sister Parm Kahlon owns a government relations firm, where a client of the firm would be a potential partner in housing projects.[123] Kahlon has refuted the allegation and defended that the housing company does not do work with the government.[123]
On September 27, Rustad announced the housing platform for the Conservative Party. He committed to set deadlines for municipalities to issue rezoning, development and building permits. He also intended to repeal the BC's Step Code policy and Net-Zero mandate, which he claimed to have driven the construction cost up by 30–40%. On top of the NDP's transit-oriented policy, Rustad further assured they will amend the bill to require grocery stores and small businesses to be within walking distance of homes.[124]
On September 28, a few hours before the candidate nomination deadline, David Eby issued an open letter requesting that Rustad to drop candidates which he considered to have "dangerous and extremist views". Eby singled out five candidates who had perpetuated conspiracy theories regarding the results of the 2020 United States presidential election, Sheldon Clare for comparing gun control to Japanese internment camps, and Bryan Breguet for his "bigoted and sexist views". Rustad declined, and suggested in a reply that Eby investigate Ravi Kahlon.[125] The party released its agricultural plan the same day, including investments in agricultural development, financial support for yield-increasing measures and expanding the Buy BC program. Rustad also promised to review the Agricultural Land Commission.[126]
On October 14, the Conservative Party released their education plan, including ending the SOGI 123 program (a program of materials related to gender identity and sexual orientation, which Rustad considered to be indoctrination of children), reintroducing letter grades for grades 4 to 9, and reinstating provincial standardized tests for grades 10 and 12.[127][128]
During a speech to his supporters on election night, Rustad pledged to make it "as difficult as possible" for the NDP if they formed a minority government, in order to prevent "any more destruction in the province".[129]
Green
On October 8, following the televised debate, American actor Mark Ruffalo endorsed the Green Party.[130]
Candidates by Party
Shelly Jan, an unaffiliated candidate in Langley-Abbotsford, withdrew after nominations were closed, but not in time to have her name removed from the printed ballots.[g] Carlos Suarez Rubio (Langley-Walnut Grove), initially classified as unaffiliated, was later designated as an independent candidate on the ballot.
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Candidates
- Names in bold are outgoing cabinet ministers, and names in italics are party leaders. The premier is in both.
- Candidate names and results per Elections BC final statement of votes.[134]
- † denotes incumbent MLAs who are not seeking re-election.
- ‡ denotes incumbent MLAs who are seeking re-election in a different riding.
- †† denotes a former BC United candidate at the time of the party campaign suspension.[135]
Northern British Columbia
Prince George and the Cariboo
The Kootenays
Thompson, Okanagan, Shuswap and Boundary
Fraser Valley-Langley-Maple Ridge
Surrey
Richmond and Delta
Burnaby-New Westminster-Tri-Cities
Vancouver
North Shore-Sea to Sky-Sunshine Coast
Vancouver Island
Greater Victoria
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Results
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On October 20 at 14:30, PDT, Elections BC completed the initial count. This count included votes cast at district electoral offices, at advance voting and on Final Voting Day. It also includes vote-by-mail ballots that were returned by mail before the end of advance voting. The remaining votes were counted during Final count, which concluded on October 28.[67] As a result of the remaining ballots counted, the Surrey-Guildford district flipped from Conservative to NDP, resulting in a narrow NDP majority.[167][168] Shortly after the final count was concluded, Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin invited David Eby to continue as Premier of British Columbia.[169]
Judicial recounts were conducted in two electoral districts:[170]
A third recount was ordered in Prince George-Mackenzie, following the discovery of an uncounted ballot box containing around 861 votes. Eleven tabulator tapes were also found to have been missed, affecting the results in six districts.[171]
The final results were not affected by these recounts since no seat was flipped.[172] This was widely anticipated, as in the 21st century only one recount has resulted in a seat change, being that of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky in 2020.[171]
The 2024 election was significant for several reasons:
- This was the first time since 1975 that the Conservative Party won seats.[173]
- It was also the first general election in British Columbia, as well as any other Canadian province or territory, to elect more women than men, with 49 of 93 (52%) female MLAs.[h][174]
- The province has not experienced such a delay in determining the eventual winner since 1952.[175]
Synopsis of results
- = BC United candidates who opted to stand on other tickets
- = Conservative candidates displaced on BC United candidate migration
- = Retiring incumbent subsequently chose to stand again as an Independent
- = Open seat
- = Turnout is above provincial average
- = Winning candidate held seat in previous Legislature
- = Ridings where BCU incumbent MLA failed to secure reelection
- = Incumbent had switched allegiance
- = Previously incumbent in another riding
- = Not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
- = Incumbency arose from byelection gain
- = Other incumbents renominated
- = Previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
- = Multiple candidates
Comparative analysis (2024 vs 2020)
Ternary plots of election results
2020: electoral districts won identified by NDP (orange), Liberal (red) and Green (green).
2024: electoral districts won identified by NDP (orange), Conservative (blue) and Green (green)
Strength of 1st-place finishes
2024 vs 2020
2024 (by winning party)
Strength of 2nd-place finishes
2024 vs 2020
2024 (by party finishing second)
Strength of other candidates
2024 vs 2020
2024
Marginality of election results
2024 vs 2020
2024 (by winning party)
Summary analysis
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Student Vote results
Student Vote elections are mock elections that run parallel to real elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by CIVIX Canada, in partnership with Elections BC. Student Vote elections are for educational purposes and do not count towards the actual results.[178]
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Opinion polls
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Notes
- Furstenau was the incumbent MLA for Cowichan Valley, opting to switch ridings.
- Elected as member of the NDP, resigned from caucus on March 6, 2024[32]
- The party website listed 57 candidates at the time of the withdrawal of the party, however, Dave Sidhu was still listed as a candidate in Abbotsford West despite dropping out as a candidate earlier in August.[52]
- "Shelly Jan has withdrawn as a candidate in Langley-Abbotsford...Ballot printing for the election began on September 29 and is now complete. As a result, Shelly Jan will appear on the ballot for Langley-Abbotsford."[133]
- The 19th Northwest Territories Legislative Assembly had achieved a majority of women MLAs in 2021, but only after a by-election.
References
External links
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