2024 Catalan regional election

The 2024 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 12 May 2024, to elect the 15th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

2024 Catalan regional election

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All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia 68 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	5,754,987 2.3%
Turnout	3,183,137 (55.3%) 4.0 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Salvador Illa Carles Puigdemont Pere Aragonès Party PSC–PSOE Cat–Junts+ ERC Leader since 30 December 2020 21 March 2024 20 November 2020 Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona Last election 33 seats, 23.0% 32 seats, 20.1% 33 seats, 21.3% Seats won 42 35 20 Seat change 9 3 13 Popular vote 882,589 681,470 431,128 Percentage 28.0% 21.6% 13.7% Swing 5.0 pp 1.5 pp 7.6 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Alejandro Fernández Ignacio Garriga Jéssica Albiach Party PP Vox Comuns Sumar Leader since 10 November 2018 10 August 2020 18 September 2018 Leader's seat Barcelona Barcelona Barcelona Last election 3 seats, 3.8% 11 seats, 7.7% 8 seats, 6.9%[a] Seats won 15 11 6 Seat change 12 0 2 Popular vote 347,170 251,096 184,297 Percentage 11.0% 8.0% 5.8% Swing 7.2 pp 0.3 pp 1.1 pp   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader Laia Estrada Sílvia Orriols Carlos Carrizosa Party CUP–DT Aliança.cat Cs Leader since 25 March 2024 28 October 2020 19 August 2020 Leader's seat Barcelona Girona Barcelona (lost) Last election 9 seats, 6.7% Did not contest 6 seats, 5.6% Seats won 4 2 0 Seat change 5 2 6 Popular vote 129,059 119,149 22,947 Percentage 4.1% 3.8% 0.7% Swing 2.7 pp New party 4.9 pp
Vote winner strength by constituency Election results by constituency
President before election Pere Aragonès ERC Elected President Salvador Illa PSC

The coalition government formed by Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts) had broken up in October 2022, with president Pere Aragonès having to rely in the support of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) and In Common We Can (ECP) for stability. After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget in Parliament on 13 March 2024, as a result of differences with ECP over the Hard Rock mega resort, Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.

Salvador Illa's PSC secured a commanding victory in both votes and seats in a Catalan regional election for the first time in history, whereas support for Catalan nationalist parties in general—and for ERC and the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) in particular—collapsed, bringing their combined totals well below the absolute majority threshold for the first time since 1980. The conservative People's Party (PP) surged from three to 15 seats, benefiting from the wipeout of Citizens (Cs), whereas the far-right, pro-independence Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat) party of Sílvia Orriols was able to secure parliamentary representation thanks to strong support in traditionally pro-independence strongholds. Illa was elected as new president on 8 August 2024 with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and amidst a failed attempt by Puigdemont to thwart his investiture by returning to Barcelona while evading Spanish and Catalan police forces.

The election outcome and Illa's election were widely seen as signaling the end of the Catalan independence process starting in 2012 and seeing at its height a major constitutional crisis in Spain and its subsequent trials.^[1][2] The conciliation policies carried out by the Spanish government of Pedro Sánchez, as well as the controversial amnesty law that was agreed for in the 2023 Spanish government formation process, were said to be among the factors that influenced the loss of the pro-independence majority.^[3]

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[4] As a result of no regional electoral law having been approved since the re-establishment of Catalan autonomy, the electoral procedure came regulated under Transitory Provision Fourth of the 1979 Statute, supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law.^[b] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2022 abolished the "begged" or expat vote system (Spanish: Voto rogado), under which Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote.^[5] The expat vote system was attributed responsibility for a major decrease in the turnout of Spaniards abroad during the years it had been in force.^[6]

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:^[4][7]

Seats	Constituencies
85	Barcelona
18	Tarragona
17	Girona
15	Lleida

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.^[8]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within from forty to sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 14 February 2021, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 February 2025. The election was required to be called no later than 30 January 2025, with it taking place up to the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 31 March 2025.^[4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[4]

After the Catalan government failed to pass the regional budget on 13 March 2024, president Pere Aragonès announced a snap election for 12 May.^[9] The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 19 March 2024 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).^[10]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.^[11][12][13]

Parliamentary composition in March 2024

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialists' and United to Advance Parliamentary Group		PSC	32	33
			Els Units	1
	Republican Parliamentary Group		ERC	33	33
	Together for Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		JxCat	27	31
			DC	2
			AxR	1
			IdE	1
	Vox's Parliamentary Group in Catalonia		Vox	10	10
	Popular Unity Candidacy–A New Cycle to Win's Parliamentary Group		CUP	8	9
			Guanyem	1
	In Common We Can's Parliamentary Group		CatComú	7	8
			Podem	1
	Citizens's Parliamentary Group		CS	6	6
	Mixed Group		PP	3	3
	Non-Inscrits		INDEP	2[c]	2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[16]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Votes (%)	Seats
	PSC–PSOE	List Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE) United to Advance (Els Units)		Salvador Illa	Social democracy	23.03%	33	N	[17] [18] [19]
	ERC	List Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)		Pere Aragonès	Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy	21.30%	33	Y	[20]
	Cat–Junts+	List Together for Catalonia (JxCat) – Action for the Republic (AxR) – Left Movement of Catalonia (MESCat) – Independence Rally (RI.cat) – Catalan State (EC) – Republican Youth of Lleida (JRL) Democrats of Catalonia (DC)		Carles Puigdemont	Catalan independence Sovereigntism Populism	20.07%	32	N	[21] [22] [23]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Ignacio Garriga	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	7.67%	11	N	[24]
	CUP–DT	List Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) – Forward–Socialist Organization of National Liberation (Endavant–OSAN) – Free People (PL–PPCC) Let's Reverse (Capgirem)		Laia Estrada	Catalan independence Anti-capitalism Socialism	6.68%	9	N	[25]
	Comuns Sumar	List Catalunya en Comú (CatComú) – Barcelona in Common (BComú) – United Left Catalonia (EUCat) – Greens Equo (Verds Equo) – Green Left (EV) Unite Movement (SMR)		Jéssica Albiach	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Eco-socialism	6.87%[a]	8	N	[26] [27] [28]
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Carlos Carrizosa	Liberalism	5.58%	6	N	[29]
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Alejandro Fernández	Conservatism Christian democracy	3.85%	3	N	[30]
	Aliança.cat	List Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat)		Sílvia Orriols	Catalan independence Anti-immigration	New party		N	[31]

Ahead of the election, it was revealed that the People's Party (PP) and Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs) were negotiating an electoral alliance that could be extended to the European Parliament election in June as well,^[32] but talks broke down on 22 March—causing the resignation of Adrián Vázquez as secretary-general of CS—after the regional branch of CS in Catalonia rejected its dissolution.^[33] The PP was also concerned on whether to keep Alejandro Fernández as the party's candidate or to replace him by another figure, such as former Health minister Dolors Montserrat.^[34] On 26 March, the PP confirmed Fernández as the party's candidate and Montserrat as campaign manager.^[30]

On 21 March, Together for Catalonia (Junts) leader Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium to avoid charges brought by Spanish authorities following the unrecognized referendum on Catalan independence from Spain in 2017, held a rally in Elne, France, near the Spanish border, saying that he would stand for office in the Parliament of Catalonia and seek to become regional president, which he had previously held prior to his exile.^[35] On 26 March, Puigdemont announced the "Vernet Accord", an electoral alliance between Junts and several minor pro-independence parties: his former allies of Action for the Republic (AxR), The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV), Independence Rally (RI.cat), Democrats of Catalonia (DC) and Left Movement of Catalonia (MESCat), and new ones such as Catalan State (EC) and Republican Youth of Lleida (JRL).^[36] The next day, it was revealed that Puigdemont would run under the "Together+Puigdemont for Catalonia" (Cat–Junts+) platform.^[37] Later, EV–AV announced that their party had not signed nor negotiated the alliance and were not a part of Junts since 2020.^[23] Puigdemont pledged to return to Spain for the election of the Catalan presidency, by which time he expects to avail of a proposed amnesty on Catalan separatists raised by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.^[38] Puigdemont also pledged to retire from politics if he loses the election.^[39]

On 25 March, Catalan Alliance, a far-right party that led the local governments in the municipalities of Ripoll and Ribera d'Ondara, announced that they would be contesting the election with their leader, Sílvia Orriols, as their main candidate.^[31]

On 27 March, Podemos announced that they would not contest the election.^[40] The party had contested previous elections within the En Comú Podem alliance, alongside Catalonia in Common (CatComú). In a statement, the party stated that they did not wish to contribute to the fragmentation of the left-wing vote, as it had intended to contest the election on its own if an agreement could not be reached with their previous election partners, while blaming Catalunya en Comú for making an agreement "impossible".^[41] The relationship of Podemos with other Spanish left-wing parties had been deteriorating since it broke with the Sumar coalition and joined the Mixed Group in the Spanish Congress of Deputies.^[42] Following Podemos' withdrawal, CatComú and Sumar announced a joint list for the election under the name Comuns Sumar, with Jéssica Albiach as their main candidate.^[43]

On 8 May, PSC, ERC, Junts, Comuns Sumar and CUP announced an Acord antifeixista (English: "Anti-fascist Accord"), an agreement that those parties would not enter into any coalition with Catalan Alliance or Vox.^[44]

Timetable

The key dates are listed below (all times are CET):^[16][45]

• 18 March: The election decree is issued with the countersign of the President.^[10]
• 19 March: Formal dissolution of the Parliament of Catalonia and beginning of a suspension period of events for the inauguration of public works, services or projects.
• 22 March: Initial constitution of provincial and zone electoral commissions.
• 29 March: Deadline for parties and federations intending to enter into a coalition to inform the relevant electoral commission.
• 8 April: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates to the relevant electoral commission.
• 10 April: Submitted lists of candidates are provisionally published in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC).
• 13 April: Deadline for citizens entered in the Register of Absent Electors Residing Abroad (CERA) and for citizens temporarily absent from Spain to apply for voting.
• 14 April: Deadline for parties, federations, coalitions, and groupings of electors to rectify irregularities in their lists.
• 15 April: Official proclamation of valid submitted lists of candidates.
• 16 April: Proclaimed lists are published in the DOGC.
• 26 April: Official start of electoral campaigning.^[10]
• 2 May: Deadline to apply for postal voting.
• 7 May: Official start of legal ban on electoral opinion polling publication, dissemination or reproduction and deadline for CERA citizens to vote by mail.
• 8 May: Deadline for postal and temporarily absent voters to issue their votes.
• 10 May: Last day of official electoral campaigning and deadline for CERA citizens to vote in a ballot box in the relevant consular office or division.^[10]
• 11 May: Official 24-hour ban on political campaigning prior to the general election (reflection day).
• 12 May: Polling day (polling stations open at 9 am and close at 8 pm or once voters present in a queue at/outside the polling station at 8 pm have cast their vote). Provisional counting of votes starts immediately.
• 15 May: General counting of votes, including the counting of CERA votes.
• 18 May: Deadline for the general counting of votes to be carried out by the relevant electoral commission.
• 27 May: Deadline for elected members to be proclaimed by the relevant electoral commission.
• 6 July: Final deadline for definitive results to be published in the DOGC.

Campaign

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Ref.
	PSC–PSOE	« Força per governar »	"Strength to govern"	[46]
	ERC	« Al costat de la gent. Al costat de Catalunya »	"On the side of the people. On the side of Catalonia"	[47]
	Cat–Junts+	« Catalunya necessita [...] »[d]	"Catalonia needs [...]"[d]	[48]
	Vox	« En defensa propia »	"In self-defence"	[49]
	CUP–DT	« Defensem la terra. Un altre país és possible »	"Let's defend the land. Another country is possible"	[50]
	Comuns Sumar	« La Catalunya que ve »	"The Catalonia that is coming"	[51]
	Cs	« Detenlos »	"Stop/Arrest them"[e]	[52][53]
	PP	« Volem una Catalunya de Primera »	"We want a First-class Catalonia"	[54]
	Aliança.cat	« Salvem Catalunya »	"Let's save Catalonia"	[55]

Election debates

2024 Catalan regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present[f]    S  Surrogate[g]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee
			PSC	ERC	Junts+	Vox	Comuns	CUP	Cs	PP	Audience	Ref.
15 April	PIMEC	Cristina Riba	P Illa	P Aragonès	S Rull	NI	P Albiach	NI	NI	P Fernández	—	[56]
26 April	RAC 1 La Vanguardia	Enric Sierra Jordi Basté	P Illa	P Aragonès	S Rull	P Garriga	P Albiach	P Estrada	P Carrizosa	P Fernández	—	[57]
29 April	ON Economia	Xavier Alegret	S Romero	S Mas	S Rull	NI	S Gallego	S Vega	NI	S Rodríguez	—	[58]
29 April	CAC	Germán González	S Pedret	S Balsera	S Jubert	S Macián	S García	S Pellicer	S Reina	S Esteller	—	[59]
29 April	XES AMEP	Georgina Pujol	S Riba	S Villalbí	S Canadell	NI	S Badia	S Saladié	S Bravo	S Rodríguez	—	[60]
2 May	RTVE	Gemma Nierga Xabier Fortes	P Illa	P Aragonès	S Rull	P Garriga	P Albiach	P Estrada	P Carrizosa	P Fernández	7.6% (130,000)[h]	[61] [62]
2 May	PL	Sílvia Barroso	S Niubó	S Vila	S Ten	NI	S Bárcena	S Riera	NI	S Martín	—	[63]
6 May	laSexta	Ana Pastor	P Illa	P Aragonès	S Rull	P Garriga	P Albiach	S Vega	P Carrizosa	P Fernández	9.1% (165,000)[i]	[64] [65]
6 May	CNDC	Eugènia Bretones	S Diaz	S Balsera	S Freixa	NI	S Segovia	S Gibert	NI	S Higuera	—
7 May	CCMA	Ariadna Oltra	P Illa	P Aragonès	S Rull	P Garriga	P Albiach	P Estrada	P Carrizosa	P Fernández	22.1% (358,000)	[66] [67]
8 May	No en Raja	Anna Ramon	S Riba	S Villalbí	S Feliu	NI	S Mijoler	S Cornellà	S Ciprian	S García	—	[68]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 14 February 2021 to 12 May 2024, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout														Lead
2024 regional election	12 May 2024	—		28.0 42	13.7 20	21.6 35	8.0 11	5.8 6	4.1 4	0.7 0	11.0 15	–	–	–	3.8 2	0.4 0	6.4
40dB/Prisa[p 1][p 2]	12 May 2024	?	?	29.5 39/44	16.0 23/25	22.2 34/37	7.7 8/11	4.4 4/5	3.9 2/6	0.8 0	9.5 11/13	–	–	–	3.2 1/5	–	7.3
Metroscopia[p 1]	12 May 2024	?	?	28.1 39/42	14.1 20/23	23.1 36/38	7.7 9/11	6.1 6/9	5.2 7/8	? 0	8.7 10/12	–	–	–	3.5 3/5	–	5.0
GESOP/Prensa Ibérica[p 3]	6–12 May 2024	3,000	?	26.0 37/40	14.5 21/24	20.0 30/33	9.0 11/13	6.5 7/9	6.0 7/9	? 0	8.5 10/13	–	–	–	4.5 4/7	–	6.0
Feedback/Diari d'Andorra[p 4]	6–12 May 2024	2,000	?	25.5 36/39	15.8 22/24	21.8 33/36	9.9 12/13	6.2 5/8	4.4 4/7	0.4 0	9.6 11/12	–	–	–	3.9 3/6	0.4 0	3.7
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 5]	9–11 May 2024	1,200	?	27.9 39/41	15.9 22/24	21.6 33/36	7.6 10/11	5.9 5/7	4.3 4/6	1.4 0	8.9 11/13	–	–	–	3.6 3/5	–	6.3
Feedback/Diari d'Andorra[p 6]	7–11 May 2024	800	64.9	25.9 36/39	15.4 22/24	23.2 34/38	9.3 12	4.7 4/5	5.1 6/7	0.9 0	9.0 11/12	–	–	–	4.0 3/6	0.9 0	2.7
Sigma Dos/RTVE–CCMA[p 7]	26 Apr–11 May 2024	5,930	?	27.1 37/40	17.0 24/27	22.1 33/36	7.2 10/11	6.2 6/7	5.5 6/8	0.5 0	8.1 9/12	–	–	–	3.2 1/3	–	5.0
Feedback/Diari d'Andorra[p 8]	6–10 May 2024	800	64.3	26.6 38/40	15.3 22/24	23.5 35/38	9.1 12	4.8 4/5	4.7 5/7	0.9 0	8.7 11/12	–	–	–	3.9 3/6	0.8 0	3.1
GESOP/The Adelaide Review[p 9]	2–10 May 2024	1,200	60–65	27.0 37/40	15.0 22/25	20.5 30/33	8.7 11/13	5.7 5/7	6.0 7/9	1.0 0	8.3 10/13	–	–	–	4.0 3/6	–	6.5
Feedback/Diari d'Andorra[p 10]	3–9 May 2024	800	64.4	27.3 39/41	15.6 22/25	22.9 35/38	8.5 11/12	5.2 4/6	4.2 4/6	1.0 0	8.6 11/12	–	–	–	3.9 3/6	0.9 0	4.4
GESOP/The Adelaide Review[p 11]	2–9 May 2024	1,200	62–65	26.8 37/40	15.8 23/26	21.5 32/35	8.0 10/12	5.2 5/7	6.0 7/9	1.0 0	8.5 11/13	–	–	–	3.4 3/4	–	5.3
GESOP/The Adelaide Review[p 12]	2–8 May 2024	1,200	62–65	27.8 39/42	15.0 21/24	22.0 34/37	8.0 10/12	4.8 4/6	6.0 7/9	1.0 0	8.2 10/12	–	–	–	3.4 3/4	–	5.8
Feedback/Diari d'Andorra[p 13]	2–8 May 2024	800	60.7	27.8 39/42	16.4 23/26	23.3 35/38	7.7 9/11	5.2 4/7	3.9 3/6	1.0 0	8.1 10/12	–	–	–	3.6 3/6	1.0 0	4.5
GESOP/The Adelaide Review[p 14]	2–7 May 2024	1,200	60–62	28.2 40/42	15.0 22/25	22.5 35/37	8.2 10/12	4.8 4/6	6.0 7/8	1.0 0	7.2 9/11	–	–	–	3.0 1/3	–	5.7
Feedback/Diari d'Andorra[p 15]	30 Apr–7 May 2024	800	56.8	27.1 39	17.6 24/28	21.3 33/35	8.7 11/12	6.1 6/9	4.0 4/6	0.5 0	9.4 12/13	–	–	–	2.8 0/3	0.7 0	5.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 16]	6 May 2024	?	?	29.4 40/42	19.1 26/29	21.0 30/33	6.9 7/9	5.7 5/6	5.0 5/7	0.5 0	8.3 10/12	–	–	–	2.7 1/4	–	8.4
KeyData/Público[p 17]	6 May 2024	?	63.0	28.5 40	17.3 26	21.0 33	7.3 10	5.5 5	4.5 6	0.6 0	9.3 12/13	–	–	–	3.2 2/3	–	7.5
Data10/OKDiario[p 18]	5–6 May 2024	1,500	?	29.3 40	17.0 25	21.5 34	7.4 10	5.2 5	4.4 5	? 0	9.6 13	–	–	–	3.3 3	–	7.8
GESOP/The Adelaide Review[p 19]	2–6 May 2024	900	60–62	28.3 40/42	14.0 20/23	22.0 35/37	8.2 10/12	5.0 4/6	5.9 7/8	1.2 0	6.9 8/11	–	–	–	4.0 4/6	–	6.3
Feedback/El Nacional[p 20]	29 Apr–6 May 2024	800	56.7	26.9 39/40	17.6 25/28	21.9 33/36	8.4 11/12	6.1 6/8	4.0 4/6	0.9 0	8.7 11/12	–	–	–	2.4 0/2	1.0 0	5.0
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 21]	25 Apr–6 May 2024	1,200	?	29.8 41	16.6 25	21.5 34	7.9 11	5.3 5	4.2 4	0.8 0	9.5 12	–	–	–	3.3 3	0.6 0	8.3
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 22]	1–5 May 2024	1,200	?	28.8 41	16.4 26	19.9 32	7.6 11	5.6 6	4.1 4	1.4 0	9.9 13	–	–	–	3.6 2	–	8.9
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 23]	28 Apr–5 May 2024	1,000	?	29.6 41	17.2 25	21.7 34	7.1 10	5.4 5	4.5 5	0.9 0	9.5 13	–	–	–	3.1 2	0.7 0	7.9
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 24]	24 Apr–5 May 2024	1,200	60	29.6 41	17.0 25	21.7 34	7.3 10	5.5 5	4.2 5	0.7 0	9.5 12	–	–	–	3.2 3	0.6 0	7.9
Cluster17/Agenda Pública[p 25][p 26]	3–4 May 2024	1,211	?	29.0 39/44	16.1 23/26	21.2 32/35	7.3 9/11	5.7 5/7	3.9 2/5	1.0 0	9.3 12/14	–	–	–	3.8 2/5	1.0 0	7.8
GESOP/El Periódico[p 27]	2–4 May 2024	905	58–62	28.6 40/42	14.2 21/23	22.2 35/37	7.3 10/11	5.2 4/6	5.4 7/8	1.5 0	7.7 10/11	–	–	–	3.4 3/4	–	6.4
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 28]	23 Apr–4 May 2024	1,200	?	30.5 42	17.2 25	21.0 33	7.0 9	5.3 5	4.7 6	0.7 0	9.4 13	–	–	–	3.0 2	0.6 0	9.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 29]	29 Apr–3 May 2024	1,000	65.8	28.4 39/40	17.0 24/25	20.8 34/35	7.3 10/11	5.5 5/6	4.5 4/5	? 0	9.9 13/14	–	–	–	3.2 1/3	–	7.6
GAD3/ABC[p 30]	25 Apr–3 May 2024	1,323	?	30.1 41/44	16.0 25/26	22.1 34/35	8.2 10/11	4.3 4	3.5 3/4	? 0	9.2 12/13	–	–	–	3.8 1/3	–	8.0
GAPS/Junts[p 31][p 32]	25 Apr–3 May 2024	844	?	24.6– 26.0 35/38	16.7– 18.2 26/30	22.7– 24.0 35/38	7.5– 8.5 9/12	4.9– 6.2 5/8	4.2– 5.0 5/8	? 0	7.2– 8.1 8/12	–	–	–	2.9– 3.8 2/6	–	1.9– 2.0
YouGov/Ara[p 33]	23 Apr–3 May 2024	3,100	?	27.4 37/41	17.2 22/26	19.5 30/34	8.2 10/12	6.5 6/9	4.7 5/8	? 0	8.2 9/12	–	–	–	4.1 2/7	–	7.9
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 34]	22 Apr–3 May 2024	1,200	?	30.3 42	17.2 25	21.2 33	7.1 9	5.0 5	4.4 5	0.8 0	9.6 13	–	–	–	3.2 3	0.7 0	9.1
Target Point/El Debate[p 35]	1–2 May 2024	1,006	?	27.1 38/40	18.3 27/29	20.8 32/34	7.5 10/11	4.7 5	4.7 5	1.2 0	9.2 12/14	–	–	–	3.4 1/3	–	6.3
40dB/Prisa[p 36][p 37]	30 Apr–2 May 2024	1,200	?	28.4 39/43	16.6 24/26	22.0 34/37	7.2 8/12	4.8 4/5	3.7 2/5	1.2 0	9.8 12/15	–	–	–	2.8 1/3	–	6.4
IMOP/El Confidencial[p 38]	29 Apr–2 May 2024	1,239	68	27.8 39/41	17.5 26/28	22.4 36/38	5.7 6/7	5.2 4/5	4.1 4/5	1.0 0	8.7 11/13	–	–	–	3.2 1/3	–	5.4
DYM/Henneo[p 39][p 40]	29 Apr–2 May 2024	1,301	?	27.7 40/42	17.2 24/26	20.5 32/33	7.3 9	5.7 6	4.0 6	? 0	10.7 13/14	–	–	–	2.9 1/3	–	7.2
Feedback/El Nacional[p 41]	29 Apr–2 May 2024	600	60.9	26.4 39/40	17.7 26/28	20.4 31/33	8.4 11/12	6.3 7/8	4.2 4/7	? 0	8.9 11/13	–	–	–	2.4 0/2	0.6 0	6.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 42]	25 Apr–2 May 2024	3,007	?	29.8 41/43	18.9 27/30	20.1 28/31	6.7 7/9	5.9 5/6	5.3 6/7	0.5 0	8.7 11/13	–	–	–	2.6 2/4	–	9.7
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 43]	21 Apr–2 May 2024	1,200	?	29.9 42	18.1 27	21.2 34	7.3 10	4.7 4	4.2 4	0.9 0	9.3 12	–	–	–	3.0 2	0.9 0	8.7
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 44]	29 Apr–1 May 2024	1,150	?	28.4 42	17.2 26	20.1 32	7.5 11	5.7 6	4.1 4	? 0	9.7 13	–	–	–	3.2 1	–	8.3
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 45]	20 Apr–1 May 2024	1,200	?	29.7 41	18.7 28	20.0 31	7.5 10	4.8 4	4.5 6	0.9 0	9.2 12	–	–	–	3.1 3	1.0 0	9.7
CIS[p 46][p 47]	24–30 Apr 2024	4,051	?	29.8– 33.2	15.2– 17.9	15.4– 18.1	5.8– 7.5	5.0– 6.7	3.2– 4.6	0.5– 1.0	9.6– 11.9	–	–	–	3.0– 4.4	0.6– 1.3	14.4– 15.1
Celeste-Tel/Onda Cero[p 48][p 49]	24–30 Apr 2024	1,100	65.5	28.3 40	17.4 26	20.5 32	7.4 10	5.8 6	4.6 6	1.0 0	9.6 13	–	–	–	3.1 2	–	7.8
Hamalgama Métrica/Vozpópuli[p 50]	23–30 Apr 2024	1,000	65.1	27.9 38	18.1 27	20.9 32	7.7 11	5.7 5	4.9 7	0.9 0	9.4 13	–	–	–	3.0 2	–	7.0
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 51]	19–30 Apr 2024	1,200	?	29.1 40	18.4 27	20.4 32	7.4 10	5.2 5	4.9 7	0.9 0	9.2 12	–	–	–	3.0 2	0.8 0	8.7
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 52]	18–29 Apr 2024	1,200	?	29.6 41	18.1 27	20.5 33	7.2 10	5.3 5	5.2 7	0.9 0	9.1 12	–	–	–	2.8 0	0.7 0	9.1
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 53]	17–28 Apr 2024	1,200	?	29.4 41	18.3 28	20.8 32	7.6 11	5.1 5	5.4 7	0.7 0	9.0 11	–	–	–	2.5 0	0.7 0	8.6
KeyData/Público[p 54]	27 Apr 2024	?	59.5	27.2 38/39	18.2 27/28	20.1 32	7.0 10	6.3 6	4.9 7	1.1 0	9.7 13	–	–	–	2.7 0/2	–	7.1
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 55]	16–27 Apr 2024	1,200	?	28.5 40	18.0 27	21.9 34	7.2 10	5.4 5	5.1 7	0.9 0	9.1 12	–	–	–	2.5 0	0.8 0	6.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 56]	22–26 Apr 2024	1,000	63.9	27.3 38/39	17.6 27/28	21.0 32/33	7.4 11	5.9 6	5.1 6/7	? 0	9.8 13/14	–	–	–	? 0	–	6.3
ElectoPanel/VilaWeb[p 57]	15–26 Apr 2024	1,200	?	27.6 38	19.0 28	22.1 34	7.4 11	5.2 5	5.4 7	0.9 0	8.8 12	–	–	–	2.2 0	0.9 0	5.5
GAD3/Mediaset[p 58][p 59]	22–25 Apr 2024	1,000	?	29.4 42/43	18.8 28/29	22.4 35/37	6.0 6/9	3.9 4	3.3 2	0.8 0	9.5 12/13	–	–	–	3.4 2	0.4 0	7.0
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 60]	11–25 Apr 2024	1,000	?	28.2 39	18.3 28	22.2 34	7.7 11	5.3 5	5.2 7	0.9 0	8.9 11	–	–	–	2.2 0	0.7 0	6.0
Feedback/El Nacional[p 61]	19–24 Apr 2024	700	58.9	27.0 39/40	16.4 24/27	21.6 33/36	8.0 11	6.3 7/8	4.3 4/7	1.0 0	10.2 13/14	–	–	–	2.3 0	1.2 0	5.4
Target Point/El Debate[p 62]	19–23 Apr 2024	1,004	?	26.9 38/39	17.8 27/28	21.1 34/35	7.0 9/10	5.9 6	4.8 5/6	1.7 0	9.0 11/12	–	–	–	2.7 0/2	–	5.8
YouGov/Ara[p 63]	22 Mar–23 Apr 2024	3,500	?	25.6 34/39	17.8 23/28	19.5 31/34	8.3 10/12	6.9 6/8	5.0 6/8	2.0 0	9.2 11/14	–	–	–	3.9 2/6	–	6.1
Cluster17/LLYC[p 64]	19–22 Apr 2024	1,264	?	27.6 38/40	16.5 24/26	21.4 32/34	7.3 9/11	6.0 5/6	4.7 5/7	0.7 0	9.6 12/14	–	–	–	2.7 0/3	2.0 0	6.2
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 65]	11–22 Apr 2024	1,500	?	28.0– 33.0 40/47	20.0– 24.0 31/37	18.0– 22.0 28/34	5.0– 7.0 5/9	3.0– 5.0 3/6	4.0– 6.0 4/8	0.0– 1.0 0	6.0– 9.0 8/12	–	–	–	1.0– 3.0 0/2	–	8.0– 9.0
CIS (Logoslab)[j][69]	11–22 Apr 2024	8,905	?	25.5 36/39	17.5 26/27	20.2 32/33	7.9 10/11	6.2 5/6	4.8 6	2.5 0/3	8.9 12/13	–	–	–	3.3 1/4	–	5.3
CIS[p 66][p 67]			?	26.9– 28.3 39/40	17.7– 19.5 27/28	16.3– 18.1 28/30	6.3– 7.5 8/9	5.5– 6.4 7/8	3.7– 4.6 5/7	2.3– 3.1 0	9.2– 10.6 13/14	–	–	–	2.6– 3.4 0/2	0.7– 1.2 0	8.8– 9.2
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 68]	16–20 Apr 2024	1,200	?	27.5 40	18.1 27	19.6 32	7.9 11	5.8 6	5.0 5	? 0	9.9 13	–	–	–	2.8 1	–	7.9
GESOP/El Periódico[p 69]	17–19 Apr 2024	801	55–60	26.4 38/40	18.0 28/30	20.4 32/34	6.9 8/9	5.7 6/7	4.0 4/6	1.0 0	9.9 13/14	–	–	–	2.9 0/1	1.8 0	6.0
40dB/Prisa[p 70][p 71]	16–19 Apr 2024	1,200	?	27.1 38/40	18.2 26/29	21.1 32/35	7.0 8/11	5.9 5/7	5.0 5/7	1.3 0	9.5 11/13	–	–	–	2.1 0/1	–	6.0
Simple Lógica/elDiario.es[p 72]	5–17 Apr 2024	1,261	60.5	27.8 37/39	18.9 27/28	21.3 32/34	6.3 8/9	6.7 7/9	4.8 5	1.2 0	9.0 13/14	–	–	–	1.2 0/3	–	6.5
Ipsos/Comuns[p 73]	11–15 Apr 2024	1,113	?	28.1 41	17.8 28	17.9 30	5.0 5	7.4 9	4.2 5	1.3 0	11.6 17	–	–	–	2.7 0	–	10.2
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 74]	26 Mar–10 Apr 2024	1,000	?	27.8 39	17.8 26	21.9 34	8.1 11	5.3 5	5.4 7	0.6 0	9.3 13	–	–	–	2.4 0	–	5.9
Infortécnica/Segre[p 75]	Mar–Apr 2024	826	?	? 36/38	? 26/27	? 35/36	? 9/10	? 4/6	? 6/7	? 0/3	? 9/10	–	–	–	? 0/3	–	?
Data10/OKDiario[p 76]	27–29 Mar 2024	1,500	?	26.7 38	20.1 29	21.5 32	7.1 8	6.5 8	4.8 6	? 0	10.0 14	–	–	–	–	–	5.2
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 77]	1–25 Mar 2024	1,000	?	27.4 38	18.9 28	21.2 33	8.2 11	5.3 5	6.1 8	0.5 0	8.8 12	–	–	–	2.2 0	–	6.2
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 78]	14–22 Mar 2024	2,014	?	27.5 39/41	18.4 27/28	17.8 26/29	6.7 9	8.1 9/10	5.9 7	1.6 0	10.0 13/15	–	–	–	1.5 0	–	9.1
Ipsos/La Vanguardia[p 79]	16–20 Mar 2024	1,425	?	29.4 41	16.8 26	17.7 29	6.4 8	7.7 9	5.4 7	1.8 0	10.8 15	–	–	–	–	–	11.7
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 80]	14–16 Mar 2024	1,200	?	29.1 42	19.1 28	21.2 33	8.2 11	5.5 5	4.8 4	? 0	9.1 12	–	[k]	–	–	–	7.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 81]	13–16 Mar 2024	1,000	65.7	25.7 36/37	20.5 30/31	21.3 32/33	7.6 9/10	5.5 6	5.3 7	1.0 0	8.9 12/13	–	[k]	–	–	–	4.4
GESOP/El Periódico[p 82]	14–15 Mar 2024	802	?	23.8 35/38	18.0 29/32	18.5 29/32	6.0 7/9	7.0 7/9	5.9 7/9	? 0	10.0 12/14	–	1.7 0	–	2.9 0/3	–	5.3
GESOP/CEO[p 83]	9 Feb–7 Mar 2024	2,000	?	25.0– 29.0 35/42	17.0– 20.0 26/32	15.0– 18.0 24/29	7.0– 9.0 9/13	7.0– 10.0 8/13	5.0– 7.0 7/10	1.0– 2.0 0	7.0– 10.0 9/13	–	[k]	–	–	–	8.0– 9.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 84]	29 Jan–26 Feb 2024	1,550	?	27.4 39	20.1 30	20.9 33	7.8 11	4.8 5	6.2 8	0.5 0	7.8 9	–	[k]	–	1.2 0	–	6.5
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 85]	1–21 Feb 2024	1,000	?	27.9 39	19.1 29	20.4 32	8.1 10	5.0 5	6.3 8	0.6 0	8.4 12	–	[k]	–	1.6 0	–	7.5
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 86]	1–10 Jan 2024	1,000	?	28.2 39	21.1 32	18.5 28	8.2 11	5.9 6	5.6 7	0.9 0	8.4 12	–	[k]	–	–	–	7.1
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 87]	13–28 Nov 2023	1,000	?	28.9 40	20.7 33	18.1 27	8.8 12	6.1 7	5.7 7	1.3 0	7.7 9	–	[k]	–	–	–	8.2
GESOP/CEO[p 88]	9 Oct–7 Nov 2023	2,000	?	27.0– 31.0 39/45	18.0– 22.0 29/34	12.0– 15.0 19/24	5.0– 7.0 6/9	8.0– 11.0 10/14	4.0– 6.0 4/8	0.0– 1.0 0	9.0– 12.0 12/17	–	[k]	–	–	–	9.0
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 89]	25 Sep–10 Oct 2023	1,000	?	26.8 36	18.7 28	19.5 31	9.1 12	7.8 9	5.9 8	1.5 0	8.7 11	–	[k]	–	–	–	7.3
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 90]	7–9 Sep 2023	1,000	?	26.1 36	20.3 31	19.6 31	6.2 7	8.4 10	5.2 7	? 0	10.3 13	–	[k]	–	–	–	5.8
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	62.7	34.5 (50)	13.2 (20)	11.2 (17)	7.8 (11)	14.0 (19)	2.8 (1)	–	13.4 (17)	0.9 (0)	[k]	–	–	–	20.5
GESOP/CEO[p 91]	29 May–26 Jun 2023	2,000	?	22.0– 26.0 31/37	19.0– 23.0 31/36	15.0– 18.0 25/30	5.0– 8.0 6/10	6.0– 9.0 7/11	6.0– 8.0 7/11	1.0– 2.0 0	10.0– 12.0 13/17	–	[k]	–	–	–	3.0
2023 local elections	28 May 2023	—	55.6	23.7	17.3	18.4	5.0	8.9	4.5	1.2	8.2	–	–	–	–	–	5.3
GESOP/CEO[p 92]	27 Feb–24 Mar 2023	2,000	?	23.0– 27.0 34/40	18.0– 22.0 29/34	14.0– 17.0 22/28	6.0– 8.0 7/10	6.0– 9.0 7/12	6.0– 8.0 8/12	3.0– 5.0 0/5	7.0– 9.0 8/12	–	[k]	–	–	–	5.0
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 93]	12 Oct–10 Dec 2022	12,003	?	22.2 32	23.1 36	15.7 24	8.8 12	7.8 10	7.6 10	2.3 0	6.6 8	–	[k]	3.1 3	–	–	0.9
GESOP/CEO[p 94]	27 Sep–21 Oct 2022	2,000	?	23.0– 27.0 35/41	18.0– 22.0 30/36	12.0– 15.0 19/24	5.0– 7.0 6/10	6.0– 8.0 6/10	6.0– 8.0 8/12	2.0– 4.0 0/4	8.0– 11.0 11/16	–	[k]	–	–	–	5.0
GESOP/El Periódico[p 95]	13–14 Oct 2022	803	?	24.8 37/38	20.1 32/33	18.6 29/30	6.4 8/9	6.3 7/8	7.5 10/11	2.0 0	7.1 9/10	–	[k]	–	–	–	4.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 96]	31 Aug–13 Oct 2022	1,540	?	21.6 31	22.4 35	16.5 25	8.6 12	7.6 9	7.5 10	2.4 0	6.6 8	–	[k]	3.6 5	–	–	0.8
GESOP/CEO[p 97]	7 Jun–7 Jul 2022	2,000	?	25.0– 29.0 36/42	19.0– 23.0 31/37	14.0– 17.0 22/27	4.0– 6.0 4/8	4.0– 6.0 4/7	6.0– 8.0 8/12	4.0– 6.0 3/6	7.0– 10.0 9/14	–	[k]	–	–	–	6.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 98]	15 Apr–30 May 2022	1,565	?	21.9 31	23.2 38	16.6 26	9.2 12	7.3 8	7.5 10	2.7 0	6.0 7	–	[k]	2.5 3	–	–	1.3
Feedback/El Nacional[p 99]	10–19 May 2022	1,000	59.3	23.3 33/35	21.1 31/34	16.3 25/26	8.4 11/12	8.7 10/11	6.7 8/10	3.8 3/4	5.4 6/7	1.8 0	[k]	–	–	–	2.2
Ipsos/La Vanguardia[p 100][p 101]	9–12 May 2022	?	51	25.2 36	20.8 33	15.7 25	9.3 12	7.6 9	7.8 10	3.5 3	5.8 7	1.5 0	[k]	–	–	–	4.4
GESOP/CEO[p 102]	1–28 Mar 2022	2,000	?	23.0– 29.0 34/39	20.0– 25.0 33/38	13.0– 18.0 23/28	6.0– 10.0 9/12	6.0– 9.0 6/10	6.0– 9.0 8/11	2.0– 5.0 0/4	4.0– 8.0 6/8	–	[k]	–	–	–	3.0– 4.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 103]	30 Aug–14 Oct 2021	4,146	?	24.7 35	24.6 38	18.0 27	7.2 10	6.5 7	6.9 10	2.6 0	6.3 8	–	[k]	–	–	–	0.1
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 104]	20–22 Sep 2021	806	62.0	24.1 33/34	25.9 39/40	17.3 27	6.9 8/10	8.1 10	4.6 6/7	3.8 3	5.9 6/7	0.6 0	[k]	–	–	–	1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 105]	31 May–13 Jul 2021	3,458	?	24.7 36	23.4 35	19.5 31	7.1 8	6.3 7	7.4 10	2.2 0	6.7 8	–	[k]	–	–	–	1.3
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 106]	11–19 May 2021	1,200	60	23.8 34/35	24.0 36/37	18.0 28/29	6.2 7/8	6.6 8/9	8.3 11/12	2.4 0/2	6.4 6/7	–	[k]	–	–	–	0.2
GESOP/El Periódico[p 107]	12–14 May 2021	801	?	26.2 37/38	22.5 34/36	17.0 25/27	7.7 10/11	6.9 8/9	7.5 9/10	4.0 3/4	4.9 5/6	1.3 0	[k]	–	–	–	3.7
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 108]	11–12 May 2021	800	56.0	25.4 36	22.2 35	20.8 33	6.3 8	6.4 7	6.2 8	2.3 0	7.0 8	0.8 0	[k]	–	–	–	3.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 109][p 110]	30 Mar–1 Apr 2021	1,000	50.4	23.5 34	22.4 34	19.2 31	8.1 12	6.7 8	6.9 9	3.1 2	5.4 5	–	[k]	–	–	–	1.1
2021 regional election	14 Feb 2021	—	51.3	23.0 33	21.3 33	20.1 32	7.7 11	6.9 8	6.7 9	5.6 6	3.8 3	2.7 0	[k]	–	–	–	1.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size												?	N	Lead
2024 regional election	12 May 2024	—	16.1	7.9	12.4	4.6	3.3	2.4	0.4	6.3	–	–	2.2	—	42.1	3.7
GESOP/El Periódico[p 27]	2–4 May 2024	905	20.8	10.4	16.0	3.1	4.7	4.9	1.0	4.6	–	–	2.4	17.3	8.2	4.8
40dB/Prisa[p 37]	30 Apr–2 May 2024	1,200	19.2	9.9	17.1	6.2	4.2	3.2	1.8	5.6	–	–	3.3	17.7	7.2	2.1
DYM/Henneo[p 111]	29 Apr–2 May 2024	1,301	18.6	12.5	12.7	5.1	6.2	2.8	–	4.5	–	–	2.1	18.8	11.4	5.9
CIS[p 46]	24–30 Apr 2024	4,051	21.9	10.6	10.7	4.2	2.6	3.2	0.3	7.0	–	–	2.5	29.7	4.2	11.2
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 112]	11–22 Apr 2024	1,500	13.0	13.0	8.2	2.2	2.9	2.1	0.3	1.9	–	–	1.5	47.1	5.0	Tie
CIS[p 66]	11–22 Apr 2024	8,905	20.9	14.5	12.5	5.4	5.5	3.2	1.8	7.7	–	–	2.4	19.4	3.2	6.4
GESOP/El Periódico[p 113]	17–19 Apr 2024	801	21.0	14.4	13.4	2.5	4.9	2.7	0.5	4.6	–	–	1.7	19.1	9.8	6.6
40dB/Prisa[p 71]	16–19 Apr 2024	1,200	17.0	11.5	15.3	4.8	6.5	3.3	1.9	7.0	–	–	3.3	18.1	5.9	1.7
GESOP/El Periódico[p 82]	14–15 Mar 2024	802	14.7	12.9	9.4	2.3	5.4	3.9	0.5	4.1	–	1.3	1.5	27.7	9.9	1.8
GESOP/CEO[p 114]	9 Feb–7 Mar 2024	2,000	19.0	17.1	11.3	4.3	6.8	4.5	0.8	5.4	0.4	[k]	–	14.0	7.3	1.9
GESOP/ICPS[p 115]	31 Oct–20 Nov 2023	1,200	16.4	19.7	15.6	2.1	5.8	4.2	0.6	4.0	–	[k]	–	17.2	10.4	3.3
GESOP/CEO[p 116]	9 Oct–7 Nov 2023	2,000	21.2	18.4	11.1	4.0	7.8	4.0	0.7	5.8	0.6	[k]	–	12.2	7.6	2.8
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—	22.4	8.5	7.2	5.0	9.1	1.8	–	8.7	0.6	[k]	–	—	34.6	13.3
GESOP/CEO[p 117]	29 May–26 Jun 2023	2,000	19.6	16.8	12.5	4.0	7.3	6.0	1.5	6.0	–	[k]	–	12.2	6.6	2.8
GESOP/CEO[p 118]	27 Feb–24 Mar 2023	2,000	18.1	18.9	8.2	2.7	7.4	5.3	2.0	4.4	0.8	[k]	–	15.9	6.9	0.8
GESOP/ICPS[p 119]	19 Oct–11 Nov 2022	1,200	16.6	18.3	8.3	2.0	5.8	4.2	2.3	4.0	–	[k]	–	18.3	12.6	1.7
GESOP/CEO[p 120]	27 Sep–21 Oct 2022	2,000	16.7	17.6	8.6	3.6	6.8	6.1	2.1	4.1	0.9	[k]	–	14.7	9.2	0.9
GESOP/El Periódico[p 95]	13–14 Oct 2022	803	17.8	19.7	10.6	1.8	6.1	5.9	1.1	2.7	–	[k]	–	15.9	8.9	1.9
GESOP/CEO[p 121]	7 Jun–7 Jul 2022	2,000	17.8	19.4	10.1	2.6	6.3	6.2	2.8	5.0	0.5	[k]	–	12.1	8.0	1.6
GESOP/CEO[p 122]	1–28 Mar 2022	2,000	11.4	17.5	6.6	2.1	4.5	4.9	0.9	1.8	0.2	[k]	–	29.7	11.7	6.1
GESOP/ICPS[p 123]	4–29 Oct 2021	1,200	14.3	19.6	10.5	2.8	4.4	7.1	3.0	2.8	0.5	[k]	–	16.7	12.3	5.3
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 124]	20–22 Sep 2021	806	17.6	18.3	8.8	3.9	5.1	2.9	2.7	3.5	–	[k]	–	35.4		0.7
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 106]	11–19 May 2021	1,200	12.9	15.9	8.6	1.9	4.9	6.0	1.0	3.1	–	[k]	–	27.4	11.6	3.0
GESOP/El Periódico[p 107]	12–14 May 2021	801	19.0	17.8	10.2	2.2	5.7	5.9	1.9	1.5	0.4	[k]	–	10.8	19.1	1.2
GAD3/La Vanguardia[p 125]	11–12 May 2021	800	18.5	15.7	10.3	4.1	4.2	3.6	1.8	4.5	–	[k]	–	35.5		2.8
2021 regional election	14 Feb 2021	—	12.2	11.2	10.6	4.1	3.6	3.5	2.9	2.0	1.4	[k]	–	—	46.5	1.0

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size										Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 46]	24–30 Apr 2024	4,051	27.1	14.4	13.9	4.6	4.3	2.7	–	8.0	2.3	6.5	16.2	12.7
CIS[p 66]	11–22 Apr 2024	8,905	25.1	17.2	15.7	5.9	5.5	3.0	2.3	8.3	2.1	5.3	9.5	7.9
Ipsos/La Vanguardia[p 79]	16–20 Mar 2024	1,425	25.0	16.0	14.0	5.0	3.0	4.0	2.0	9.0	–	22.0		9.0

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									Other/ None	?	Lead
GESOP/El Periódico[p 126]	2–4 May 2024	905	58.5	11.4	9.7	–	–	–	–	–	1.5	18.9	47.1
GAD3/Mediaset[p 58]	22–25 Apr 2024	1,000	46.0	14.0	16.0	1.0	0.2	0.4	–	2.0	0.5	20.0	30.0
CIS[p 66]	11–22 Apr 2024	8,905	45.9	18.0	16.0	0.9	–	–	0.6	2.0	1.3	15.4	27.9
GESOP/El Periódico[p 127]	17–19 Apr 2024	801	45.7	13.7	14.2	0.4	0.3	0.3	–	1.2	–	24.4	31.5
GESOP/El Periódico[p 128]	14–15 Mar 2024	802	36.4	18.5	14.7	0.2	0.2	0.3	–	1.2	0.1	28.3	17.9

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size														Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Illa PSC	Aragonès ERC	Junqueras ERC	Puigdem. Junts	Borràs Junts	Garriga Vox	Albiach CatComú	Sabater CUP	Estrada CUP	Carrizosa Cs	Fernández PP	Chacón PDeCAT	Orriols AC
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 22]	1–5 May 2024	1,200	19.4	8.5	–	14.3	–	4.4	5.6	–	2.4	2.7	4.5	–	2.7	35.5		5.1
GESOP/El Periódico[p 126]	2–4 May 2024	905	20.5	10.2	–	18.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	17.3	18.5	1.9
GAD3/ABC[p 30]	25 Apr–3 May 2024	1,323	25.1	13.4	–	14.6	–	3.5	1.6	–	1.3	0.2	5.8	–	1.9	21.4	11.2	10.5
40dB/Prisa[p 37]	30 Apr–2 May 2024	1,200	21.0	10.4	–	21.5	–	5.4	5.7	–	2.5	2.1	4.9	–	3.4	14.4	8.8	0.5
IMOP/El Confidencial[p 129]	29 Apr–2 May 2024	1,239	19.8	12.9	–	20.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.8
DYM/Henneo[p 39]	29 Apr–2 May 2024	1,301	30.3	17.5	–	21.6	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	8.7
CIS[p 46]	24–30 Apr 2024	4,051	27.3	12.8	–	16.9	–	4.1	4.2	–	2.1	0.7	6.6	–	2.6	8.4	14.3	10.4
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 130]	11–25 Apr 2024	1,000	28.0	13.9	–	23.8	–	3.1	2.6	–	2.6	0.5	5.3	–	2.5	17.9	–	4.2
CIS[p 66]	11–22 Apr 2024	8,905	24.8	14.6	–	17.0	–	4.7	4.5	–	2.1	2.3	7.0	–	2.0	9.6	11.4	7.8
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 68]	16–20 Apr 2024	1,200	19.3	8.8	–	13.9	–	4.8	5.8	–	2.3	2.2	5.2	–	1.8	35.9		5.4
GESOP/El Periódico[p 127]	17–19 Apr 2024	801	20.4	14.5	–	18.6	–	1.7	4.4	–	1.6	0.9	2.0	–	1.5	20.2	14.7	1.8
40dB/Prisa[p 71]	16–19 Apr 2024	1,200	19.5	9.9	–	19.5	–	5.5	7.2	–	2.2	2.4	6.1	–	4.4	14.0	9.4	Tie
ElectoPanel/GMG[p 131]	1–25 Mar 2024	1,000	34.3	14.8	–	28.4	–	2.3	0.8	1.0	–	1.2	1.7	–	1.7	13.4	–	5.9
Ipsos/La Vanguardia[p 79]	16–20 Mar 2024	1,425	23.0	9.0	–	13.0	–	0.0	2.0	–	1.0	1.0	3.0	–	–	48.0		10.0
SocioMétrica/El Español[p 80]	14–16 Mar 2024	1,200	23.3	15.3	–	12.9	–	6.8	4.4	3.6	–	2.2	8.4	–	–	23.1		8.0
GESOP/El Periódico[p 128]	14–15 Mar 2024	802	18.1	16.3	–	21.0	–	1.6	6.4	–	3.9	1.7	3.0	–	–	13.8	11.2	2.9
GESOP/ICPS[p 115]	31 Oct–20 Nov 2023	1,200	11.7	7.3	12.8	16.7	–	0.7	1.3	0.8	–	0.3	1.1	–	–	8.6	39.0	3.9
GESOP/ICPS[p 119]	19 Oct–11 Nov 2022	1,200	18.4	17.8	–	–	7.8	1.7	3.5	4.1	–	0.9	1.3	–	–	27.1	17.5	0.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 95]	13–14 Oct 2022	803	19.1	21.7	–	–	10.9	0.9	3.7	3.6	–	1.0	1.3	–	–	25.0	13.0	2.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 132]	12–14 May 2021	801	21.7	18.4	–	15.5	–	0.9	4.3	2.6	–	0.4	1.4	2.1	–	19.0	13.7	3.3

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

Province	Time
	13:00			18:00			20:00
	2021	2024	+/–	2021	2024	+/–	2021	2024	+/–
Barcelona	22.48%	26.98%	+4.50	45.81%	46.22%	+0.41	53.75%	58.50%	+4.75
Girona	24.30%	27.35%	+3.05	46.99%	45.82%	–1.17	54.77%	57.23%	+2.46
Lleida	24.14%	25.39%	+1.25	45.95%	43.37%	–2.58	54.65%	56.40%	+1.75
Tarragona	22.68%	26.66%	+3.98	42.77%	44.07%	+1.30	50.37%	55.51%	+5.14
Total	22.77%	26.90%	+4.13	45.61%	45.80%	+0.19	53.54%	57.94%	+4.40
Sources[70]

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 12 May 2024 Parliament of Catalonia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC–PSOE)	882,589	27.96	+4.93	42	+9
	Together+Carles Puigdemont for Catalonia (Cat–Junts+)	681,470	21.59	+1.52	35	+3
	Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)	431,128	13.66	–7.64	20	–13
	People's Party (PP)	347,170	11.00	+7.15	15	+12
	Vox (Vox)	251,096	7.95	+0.28	11	±0
	Commons Unite (Comuns Sumar)1	184,297	5.84	–1.03	6	–2
	Popular Unity Candidacy–Let's Defend the Land (CUP–DT)	129,059	4.09	–2.59	4	–5
	Catalan Alliance (Aliança.cat)	119,149	3.77	New	2	+2
	Animalist Party with the Environment (PACMA)	34,493	1.09	New	0	±0
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)	22,947	0.73	–4.85	0	–6
	At the Same Time (Alhora)2	14,104	0.45	+0.24	0	±0
	Workers' Front (FO)	10,118	0.32	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Workers of Catalonia (PCTC)	4,212	0.13	–0.03	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	3,487	0.11	–0.34	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	2,760	0.09	+0.04	0	±0
	Left for Spain (IZQP–Unidos–DEf)3	1,892	0.06	–0.03	0	±0
	National Front of Catalonia (FNC)	269	0.01	–0.17	0	±0
	Convergents (CNV)	263	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		35,967	1.14	+0.29
Total		3,156,470			135	±0
Valid votes		3,156,470	99.16	+0.60
Invalid votes		26,667	0.84	–0.60
Votes cast / turnout		3,183,137	55.31	+4.02
Abstentions		2,571,850	44.69	–4.02
Registered voters		5,754,987
Sources[71]
Footnotes: 1 Commons Unite results are compared to In Common We Can–We Can In Common totals in the 2021 election. 2 At the Same Time results are compared to Primaries for the Independence of Catalonia Movement totals in the 2021 election. 3 Left for Spain results are compared to the combined totals of Left in Positive and United for Democracy+Retirees in the 2021 election.

Popular vote PSC–PSOE   27.96% Cat–Junts+   21.59% ERC   13.66% PP   11.00% Vox   7.95% Comuns Sumar   5.84% CUP–DT   4.09% Aliança.cat   3.77% PACMA   1.09% Others   1.90% Blank ballots   1.14%

Seats PSC–PSOE   31.11% Cat–Junts+   25.93% ERC   14.81% PP   11.11% Vox   8.15% Comuns Sumar   4.44% CUP–DT   2.96% Aliança.cat   1.48%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSC		Junts+		ERC		PP		Vox		Comuns		CUP–DT		Aliança
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Barcelona	29.9	28	19.3	18	13.4	12	11.6	11	8.0	7	6.7	6	4.0	3	2.9	−
Girona	19.6	4	34.8	7	12.0	2	6.6	1	6.4	1	3.3	−	4.9	1	9.0	1
Lleida	20.6	4	30.3	5	16.3	3	9.2	1	6.2	1	2.2	−	4.2	−	7.8	1
Tarragona	25.5	6	21.2	5	16.0	3	11.8	2	10.2	2	3.9	−	4.0	−	3.5	−
Total	28.0	42	21.6	35	13.7	20	11.0	15	8.0	11	5.8	6	4.1	4	3.8	2
Sources[71]

Aftermath

See also: Government of Salvador Illa

Following the release of the election results, Salvador Illa said that "Catalonia has decided to open a new era". He was also congratulated by Pedro Sánchez for the "historic result". Carles Puigdemont observed that his party was the "only pro-independence force to increase in votes and seats" but acknowledged the offset suffered by other separatist parties.^[72] He also ruled out joining a coalition that included the PSC and suggested that Junts would try and restore their previous coalition with ERC, despite the fact that such a coalition would fall well short of enough seats to form a government and in defiance of his pre-election pledge to retire from politics if he lost the election.^[73] On 13 May, Pere Aragonès announced his retirement from politics and ruled out ERC joining a coalition with Junts or the PSC, while the latter said that it was seeking to form a coalition with the support of ERC and Comuns Sumar and ruled out a Puigdemont-led government.^[74]

On 29 July, ERC announced that it had reached an agreement to elect Illa as new regional president in exchange for executive powers to the Catalan government for collecting, managing and inspecting taxes.^[75] The agreement was validated by ERC's membership by 53% in favour to 44% against,^[76] as well as by the Republican Youth of Catalonia (JERC).^[77] On 31 July, the Comuns also reached an agreement with the PSC to support Illa's investiture, thus ensuring enough votes for an election in the first round of voting.^[78][79]

Investiture Salvador Illa (PSC)
Ballot →		8 August 2024
Required majority →		68 out of 135 Y
	Yes • PSC (42) • ERC (20) • Comuns Sumar (6)	68 / 135
	No • Junts (34) • PP (15) • Vox (11) • CUP–DT (4) • Aliança.cat (2)	66 / 135
	Abstentions	0 / 135
	Absentees • Junts (1)	1 / 135
Sources[80]

Notes

1. Results for ECP–PEC in the 2021 election.
2. Transitory Provision Second of the 2006 Statute maintained the validity of the electoral regulations within the 1979 Statute, of application for as long as a specific law regulating the procedures for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia was not approved.
3. Cristina Casol, former JxCat legislator,^[14] and Antonio Gallego, former Vox legislator.^[15]
4. The party launched a multi-message slogan, with a number of interchangeable expressions:

   • Catalan: Catalunya necessita lideratge (English: "Catalonia needs leadership")
   • Catalan: Catalunya necessita bon Govern (English: "Catalonia needs good Government")
   • Catalan: Catalunya necessita fer-se respectar (English: "Catalonia needs to make itself respected")
   • Catalan: Catalunya necessita viure en català (English: "Catalonia needs to live in Catalan")
   • Catalan: Catalunya necessita la independència (English: "Catalonia needs the independence")
5. Spanish detener has double meaning. In reference to Pedro Sánchez and Carles Puigdemont, "stopping" the former and "arresting" the latter.
6. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
7. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
8. In Catalonia, the debate was broadcast on La 1 (117,000; 6.8%) and 24 Horas (13,000; 0.8%). Nationwide, the debate was broadcast on 24 Horas (109,000; 0.9%).
9. The debate was broadcast nationwide, obtaining an audience of 5.8% (720,000).
10. Alternative projection based on raw CIS data.
11. Within ECP.