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2024 United States Senate election in Florida

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2024 United States Senate election in Florida
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The primary election was held on August 20, 2024.[2]

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Scott, then the governor of Florida, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018 by 0.12 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson.[3] With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits considered the race to be favoring Scott to win re-election. On Election Day, Scott won by 12.78 percentage points, a significantly larger margin than most pre-election polls had suggested.

Out of all of Scott’s four statewide races (2010 and 2014 gubernatorial elections, 2018 and 2024 senatorial elections), this election was by far his best performance, and the first one he won decisively, as he narrowly won the latter three all by less than a 2% margin. Scott won majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade and Osceola counties for the first time in all of his statewide races, and according to exit polls Scott won 55% of Hispanic voters.[4]

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Republican primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Keith Gross
Rick Scott

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

  • 19 Republican U.S. representatives from Florida[17]

Governors

Statewide officials

State legislators

Territorial legislators

Local officials

  • 11 state attorneys[19]
  • 59 county sheriffs[22]
  • 115 county commissioners[23]

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...

Results

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Results by county:
  Scott
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Democratic primary

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Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Stanley Campbell

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Rod Joseph

Organizations

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Federal officials

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Labor unions

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...

Polling

Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Mucarsel-Powell
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Campbell
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • Feena Bonoan (Libertarian), artist and nominee for U.S. Senate in Hawaii in 2022[6]
  • Ben Everidge (Independent), fundraising consultant and former legislative consultant to U.S. Senators Lawton Chiles and Ben Nelson[6]
  • Howard Knepper (write-in), real estate developer and perennial candidate[6]
  • Tuan Nguyen (Independent), system engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[6]

General election

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Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Post-primary endorsements

Rick Scott (R)

Individuals

Organizations

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)

Federal officials

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Polling

Aggregate polls

More information Source of poll aggregation, Dates administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Scott won 20 of 28 congressional districts.[144]

More information District, Scott ...
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Notes

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  1. $2,255,605 of this total was self-funded by Gross
  2. $12,563,834 of this total was self-funded by Scott
  3. Candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2022; candidate for Florida's 9th congressional district in 2018; write-in candidate for Florida's 6th congressional district in 2020; candidate for Florida's 10th congressional district in 2022
  4. Numbered as the 11th from 2007–2013
  5. Numbered as the 22nd from 2013–2017 & the 21st from 2017–2023
  6. Numbered as the 20th from 2005–2013 & the 23rd from 2013–2023
  7. $1,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Campbell
  8. Withdrawn candidate. Fundraising numbers as of March 31, 2024.
  9. $454,105 of this total was self-funded by Grayson
  10. $12,000 of this total was self-funded by Rush
  11. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  12. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  13. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  14. "Someone else" with 2%
  15. Bonoan (L) with 2%; Everidge (I) with 1%; Nguyen (I) with 0%
  16. "Another candidate" with 2%
  17. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%, Bonoan (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  18. "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Someone else" with 3%
  20. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  21. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%, Bonoan (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  22. "Someone else" with 2%
  23. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; Bonoan (L) with 1%; "Other: with 1%
  24. "Someone else" & "Would not vote" with 1% each
  25. Bonoan (L) with 2%
  26. Bonoan (L) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote" with 1%
  27. Bonoan (L) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote" with 2%
  28. Bonoan (L) with 2%
  29. "Another Candidate" with 4%
  30. "Another Candidate" with 3%
  31. "Some other candidate" with <1%
  32. "Some other candidate" with 6%
  33. "Some other candidate" with 4%
  34. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  35. "Would not vote" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Florida Politics
  2. Poll sponsored by The Hill
  3. Poll sponsored by Florida Chamber of Commerce
  4. Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  5. Poll sponsored by Napolitan News
  6. Poll sponsored by NBC6 & Telemundo 51
  7. Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  8. Poll sponsored by Associated Industries of Florida
  9. Poll sponsored by The Independent Center
  10. Poll sponsored by the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tank
  11. Poll sponsored by EMILY's List, which supports Mucarsel-Powell
  12. Poll sponsored by the DSCC
  13. Poll sponsored by Ehr's campaign
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References

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