2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

Not to be confused with 2024 New Mexico Senate election.

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico. Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican financier Nella Domenici.^[1] Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024, with both Heinrich and Domenici winning their respective party's nomination unopposed.^[2] Republicans have not won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's late father Pete did so in 2002.

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
Turnout	65.3%
Nominee Martin Heinrich Nella Domenici Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 497,333 405,978 Percentage 55.06% 44.94%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Heinrich:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Domenici:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election Martin Heinrich Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich Democratic

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Martin Heinrich, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)	$9,067,125	$5,341,198	$4,380,901
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

Democratic primary results^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	122,961	100.0%
Total votes			122,961	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Nella Domenici, former CFO of Bridgewater Associates and daughter of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici^[5]

Disqualified

• Manuel Gonzales III, former Democratic Bernalillo County Sheriff (2014–2022) and candidate for mayor of Albuquerque in 2021^[6]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Nella Domenici (R)	$1,525,766	$464,576	$1,061,190
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Results

Republican primary results^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Nella Domenici	79,809	100.0%
Total votes			79,809	100.0%

Independents and third-party candidates

Candidates

Filed paperwork

• Cameron Chick (Independent), businessman^[7]
• Ben Luna (Independence Party), businessman^[8]
• Jerry Rose (Independent)^[9]
• Tom Wakely (Green)^[10]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[11]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[12]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]	Safe D	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14]	Likely D	October 30, 2024
Elections Daily[15]	Safe D	May 4, 2023
CNalysis[16]	Solid D	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[17]	Lean D	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[18]	Likely D	October 30, 2024
538[19]	Solid D	October 23, 2024

Endorsements

Martin Heinrich (D)

Organizations

• 314 Action^[20]
• End Citizens United^[21]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[22]
• Humane Society Legislative Fund^[23]
• Jewish Democratic Council of America^[24]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[25]
• J Street PAC^[26]
• League of Conservation Voters^[27]
• Natural Resources Defense Council^[28]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund^[29]
• Population Connection Action Fund^[30]

Labor unions

• AFSCME Council 18^[31]

Nella Domenici (R)

Organizations

• National Republican Senatorial Committee^[32]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Martin Heinrich (D)	$12,502,263	$10,330,618	$2,826,618
Nella Domenici (R)	$4,777,524[a]	$4,377,754	$399,769
Source: Federal Election Commission[3]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Martin Heinrich (D)	Nella Domenici (R)	Undecided [b]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight[33]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.4%	38.9%	12.7%	Heinrich +9.5
RCP[34]	June 13 – October 26, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.7%	39.3%	12.0%	Heinrich +9.4
270ToWin[35]	October 22 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.5%	44.5%	5.0%	Heinrich +6.0%
TheHill/DDHQ[36]	through November 3, 2024	November 4, 2024	50.8%	43.1%	6.1%	Heinrich +7.7%
Average			49.6%	41.5%	8.9%	Heinrich +8.1%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Nella Domenici (R)	Other	Undecided
Victory Insights (R)[37]	November 1–3, 2024	600 (LV)	–	50%	48%	–	1%
Research & Polling Inc.[38][A]	October 10–18, 2024	1,024 (LV)	± 3.1%	51%	40%	1%[d]	7%
SurveyUSA[39][B]	September 12–18, 2024	619 (LV)	± 5.4%	47%	34%	–	19%
Research & Polling Inc.[40][A]	September 6–13, 2024	532 (LV)	± 4.2%	50%	38%	4%[e]	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[41][C]	September 6–9, 2024	521 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	37%	6%[f]	11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[42][C]	August 25–28, 2024	488 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	33%	4%[g]	19%
Emerson College[43][D]	August 20–22, 2024	965 (RV)	± 3.1%	49%	37%	4%[h]	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44][C]	August 12–15, 2024	453 (LV)	± 4.1%	42%	36%	7%[i]	15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[45][C]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	493 (LV)	± 4.1%	40%	34%	4%[j]	21%
1892 Polling (R)[46][E]	June 19–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	42%	–	10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[47][F]	June 13–14, 2024	555 (V)	± 4.2%	47%	40%	–	13%
Red Oak Strategies (R)[48][E]	May 7–19, 2024	1,800 (LV)	± 2.3%	41%	38%	–	21%
1892 Polling (R)[46][E]	March 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	36%	–	–

Results

2024 United States Senate election in New Mexico^[49]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich (incumbent)	497,333	55.06%	+0.97%
	Republican	Nella Domenici	405,978	44.94%	+14.41%
Total votes			903,311	100.0%
Turnout				65.33%	+10.33
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Colfax (largest municipality: Raton)
• Hidalgo (largest municipality: Lordsburg)
• Luna (largest municipality: Deming)
• Valencia (largest municipality: Los Lunas)

By congressional district

Heinrich won all three congressional districts.^[50]

District	Heinrich	Domenici	Representative
1st	57.1%	42.9%	Melanie Stansbury
2nd	52.0%	48.0%	Gabe Vasquez
3rd	55.4%	44.6%	Teresa Leger Fernandez

Notes

1. $1,510,000 of this total was self-funded by Domenici
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. "Neither" with 1%
5. "Neither" with 4%
6. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; and "Other" with 2%
7. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 2%; "Other" with 2%
8. "Someone else" with 4%
9. "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 5%; "Other" with 2%
10. "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Albuquerque Journal
2. Poll sponsored by KOB
3. Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
4. Poll sponsored by The Hill
5. Poll sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Domenici
6. Poll sponsored by New Mexico Political Report