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2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

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2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

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Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Kentucky a safe red state; the state has voted Republican and by double-digit margins in every presidential election since 2000.

On election night, Kentucky voted Republican for former president Donald Trump by a wide margin for the third time in a row, with him winning the state by 30.53%, a considerable increase from his 25.94% victory in 2020 and to a lesser extent his 29.84% victory in 2016. He received about 1.34 million Kentucky votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.

This is the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate in the state's history.

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Primary elections

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Democratic primary

The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

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Republican primary

The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside the Oregon primary.

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General election

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Candidates

The following candidates qualified for the general election ballot:[5]

Additionally, Kentucky voters had the option to write-in a name for president as long as said candidate filed for office before October 25. Eleven such candidates filed, although only nine received at least one vote.[6]

Predictions

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Polling

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

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Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

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Results

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By county

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Swing by county:
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%

By congressional district

Trump won five of six congressional districts.[22]

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Analysis

A Southern state completely in the Bible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since 2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996.

Kentucky handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 633,451 votes. This election marks the fourth consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Kentuckian vote. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas.[23]

Trump notably expanded his support in Kentucky's Cumberland Plateau region, the Frankfort micropolitan area, and Warren County, home to Bowling Green. In Warren County, Trump received 61.3% of the vote, marking the strongest Republican performance in a presidential election since George W. Bush in 2004. Additionally, Trump regained some ground in the Democratic strongholds of Jefferson and Fayette counties.

See also

Notes

  1. Candidate has suspended campaign
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

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