2024 United States presidential election in Montana

The 2024 United States presidential election in Montana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Montana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Montana has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.^[2]

2024 United States presidential election in Montana

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	75.38% (of registered voters)[1]
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Electoral vote 4 0 Popular vote 352,079 231,906 Percentage 58.39% 38.46%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Data
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Trump once again won Montana by 19.93%, an increase from his 16.37% margin of victory in 2020, but slightly under his 20.42% margin from 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Montana a safe red state.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Montana Democratic presidential primary

The Montana Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Democratic primary, June 4, 2024^[3]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	94,587	91.1%	20		20
No preference	9,285	8.9%
Total:	103,872	100.0%	20	5	25

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary

The Montana Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Montana Republican primary, June 4, 2024^[4]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	165,678	90.9%	31	0	31
No Preference	16,570	9.1%	0	0	0
Total:	182,248	100.00%	31	0	31

Green primary

The Montana Green primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia.

Montana Green primary, June 4, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
No Preference	495	100.00%	4
Total:	495	100.00%	4
Source:[5]

General election

Candidates

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in Montana:^[6]

• Kamala Harris, Democratic Party
• Donald Trump, Republican Party
• Chase Oliver, Libertarian Party
• Jill Stein, Green Party
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Independent (withdrawn)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[7]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10]	Safe R	May 30, 2023
CNalysis[11]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN[12]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist[13]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538[14]	Solid R	September 23, 2024
RCP[15]	Likely R	June 26, 2024
NBC News[16]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
AtlasIntel[17]	November 3–4, 2024	752 (LV)	± 4.0%	59%	39%	2%
Emerson College[18][A]	October 23–25, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	58%	39%	3%[b]
				59%[c]	40%	1%
New York Times/Siena College[19]	October 5–8, 2024	656 (RV)	± 4.0%	57%	39%	4%
		656 (LV)		57%	40%	3%
RMG Research[20][B]	September 12–19, 2024	491 (LV)	± 4.4%	59%	38%	3%[d]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[21][C]	August 25–29, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	56%	41%	3%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
Rasmussen Reports (R)[22][D]	August 13–20, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.0%	58%	35%	7%
	August 19, 2024	Democratic National Convention begins
Emerson College[23]	August 5–6, 2024	1,000 (RV)	3.0%	55%	40%	5%
				58%[c]	43%	–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
AtlasIntel[17]	November 3–4, 2024	752 (LV)	± 4.0%	57%	37%	–	2%	0%	4%[e]
New York Times/Siena College[19]	October 5–8, 2024	656 (RV)	± 4.0%	56%	38%	–	0%	0%	6%
		656 (LV)		56%	39%	–	0%	0%	5%
Remington Research Group (R)[24][E]	September 16–20, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	56%	39%	–	2%	–	3%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Montana State University Billings[25]	September 30 – October 16, 2024	760 (A)	± 3.6%	52%	34%	3%	–	1%	2%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[22][D]	August 13–20, 2024	835 (LV)	± 3.0%	58%	31%	7%	0%	0%	0%	4%
American Pulse Research & Polling[26][F]	August 10–12, 2024	538 (LV)	± 4.2%	52%	38%	6%	0%	0%	2%	8%
Emerson College[23]	August 5–6, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	54%	39%	5%	0%	0%	0%	2%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
RMG Research[27][B]	August 6–14, 2024	540 (RV)	± 4.2%	57%	39%	2%	2%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Torchlight Strategies (R)[28][G]	June 22–26, 2024	649 (RV)	± 3.9%	51%	35%	14%[f]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[29][H]	June 11–13, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	57%	37%	6%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[30][I]	June 3–5, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	54%	36%	10%
John Zogby Strategies[31][J]	April 13–21, 2024	301 (LV)	–	59%	34%	7%
Emerson College[32][A]	February 26 – March 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	56%	35%	9%
SurveyUSA[33][F]	February 12–15, 2024	549 (LV)	± 4.5%	51%	29%	20%
Emerson College[34]	October 1–4, 2023	447 (RV)	± 4.6%	49%	28%	23%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35]	September 16–19, 2023	1,451 (RV)	–	54%	37%	9%
J.L. Partners[36]	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	–	51%	39%	10%
Echelon Insights[37]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	320 (LV)	± 6.6%	49%	36%	15%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College[32][A]	February 26 – March 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	28%	8%	1%	1%	13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D)[35]	September 16–19, 2023	1,451 (RV)	–	51%	30%	7%	12%
				49%	28%	4%	19%[g]

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[31][J]	April 13–21, 2024	301 (LV)	–	50%	35%	15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[31][J]	April 13–21, 2024	301 (LV)	–	58%	30%	12%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
J.L. Partners[36]	August 12–17, 2023	741 (LV)	–	50%	36%	14%
Echelon Insights[37]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	320 (LV)	± 6.6%	42%	35%	23%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Montana^[38]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	352,079	58.39%	+1.47%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	231,906	38.46%	−2.09%
	We the People	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	11,825	1.96%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	4,275	0.71%	−1.82%
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	2,878	0.48%	N/A
	Independent	Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) Crystal Ellis (write-in)	21	0.00%	N/A
	Write-in		6	0.00%	N/A
Total votes			602,990	100.00%	N/A

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana^[39]

County	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Beaverhead	4,058	70.04%	1,543	26.63%	193	3.33%	2,515	43.41%	5,794
Big Horn	2,188	48.95%	2,112	47.25%	170	3.80%	76	1.70%	4,470
Blaine	1,526	50.55%	1,348	44.65%	145	4.80%	178	5.90%	3,019
Broadwater	3,770	78.38%	885	18.40%	155	3.22%	2,885	59.98%	4,810
Carbon	4,719	64.67%	2,353	32.25%	225	3.08%	2,366	32.42%	7,297
Carter	760	88.99%	75	8.78%	19	2.23%	685	80.21%	854
Cascade	22,419	59.65%	14,021	37.31%	1,143	3.04%	8,398	22.34%	37,583
Chouteau	1,885	64.25%	940	32.04%	109	3.71%	945	32.21%	2,934
Custer	4,208	72.54%	1,385	23.88%	208	3.58%	2,823	48.66%	5,801
Daniels	778	81.81%	154	16.19%	19	2.00%	624	65.62%	951
Dawson	3,627	78.20%	894	19.28%	117	2.52%	2,733	58.92%	4,638
Deer Lodge	2,329	47.82%	2,376	48.79%	165	3.39%	-47	-0.97%	4,870
Fallon	1,303	86.46%	163	10.82%	41	2.72%	1,140	75.64%	1,507
Fergus	4,965	73.97%	1,522	22.68%	225	3.35%	3,443	51.29%	6,712
Flathead	41,390	65.18%	20,062	31.59%	2,049	3.23%	21,328	33.59%	63,501
Gallatin	32,695	46.50%	34,938	49.69%	2,684	3.81%	-2,243	-3.19%	70,317
Garfield	756	94.50%	39	4.88%	5	0.62%	717	89.62%	800
Glacier	1,939	38.18%	2,933	57.76%	206	4.06%	-994	-19.58%	5,078
Golden Valley	440	85.44%	67	13.01%	8	1.55%	373	72.43%	515
Granite	1,537	70.63%	579	26.61%	60	2.76%	958	44.02%	2,176
Hill	3,871	56.89%	2,634	38.71%	299	4.40%	1,237	18.18%	6,804
Jefferson	5,544	66.85%	2,516	30.34%	233	2.81%	3,028	36.51%	8,293
Judith Basin	1,051	77.68%	265	19.59%	37	2.73%	786	58.09%	1,353
Lake	9,880	58.22%	6,510	38.36%	581	3.42%	3,370	19.86%	16,971
Lewis and Clark	21,479	50.82%	19,085	45.16%	1,699	4.02%	2,394	5.66%	42,263
Liberty	752	76.11%	214	21.66%	22	2.23%	538	54.45%	988
Lincoln	8,909	75.57%	2,615	22.18%	265	2.25%	6,294	53.39%	11,789
Madison	4,615	71.42%	1,689	26.14%	158	2.44%	2,926	45.28%	6,462
McCone	931	86.04%	129	11.92%	22	2.04%	802	74.12%	1,082
Meagher	888	75.77%	256	21.84%	28	2.39%	632	53.93%	1,172
Mineral	2,049	72.33%	689	24.32%	95	3.35%	1,360	48.01%	2,833
Missoula	27,306	37.52%	42,903	58.95%	2,564	3.53%	-15,597	-21.43%	72,773
Musselshell	2,550	84.66%	396	13.15%	66	2.19%	2,154	71.51%	3,012
Park	6,128	52.30%	5,224	44.58%	365	3.12%	904	7.72%	11,717
Petroleum	284	87.65%	37	11.42%	3	0.93%	247	76.23%	324
Phillips	1,753	80.08%	385	17.59%	51	2.33%	1,368	62.49%	2,189
Pondera	1,972	69.14%	782	27.42%	98	3.44%	1,190	41.72%	2,852
Powder River	963	87.07%	131	11.84%	12	1.09%	832	75.23%	1,106
Powell	2,466	75.14%	710	21.63%	106	3.23%	1,756	53.51%	3,282
Prairie	546	79.25%	122	17.71%	21	3.04%	424	61.54%	689
Ravalli	20,617	68.66%	8,485	28.26%	925	3.08%	12,132	40.40%	30,027
Richland	4,387	82.63%	778	14.65%	144	2.72%	3,609	67.98%	5,309
Roosevelt	2,055	52.50%	1,680	42.92%	179	4.58%	375	9.58%	3,914
Rosebud	2,466	66.77%	1,095	29.65%	132	3.58%	1,371	37.12%	3,693
Sanders	6,150	76.19%	1,705	21.12%	217	2.69%	4,445	55.07%	8,072
Sheridan	1,321	69.09%	509	26.62%	82	4.29%	812	42.47%	1,912
Silver Bow	8,110	44.50%	9,386	51.50%	730	4.00%	-1,276	-7.00%	18,226
Stillwater	4,699	79.56%	1,056	17.88%	151	2.56%	3,643	61.68%	5,906
Sweet Grass	1,789	75.14%	525	22.05%	67	2.81%	1,264	53.09%	2,381
Teton	2,533	70.99%	927	25.98%	108	3.03%	1,606	45.01%	3,568
Toole	1,571	76.78%	415	20.28%	60	2.94%	1,156	56.50%	2,046
Treasure	367	83.03%	57	12.90%	18	4.07%	310	70.13%	442
Valley	3,019	74.01%	935	22.92%	125	3.07%	2,084	51.09%	4,079
Wheatland	843	77.62%	209	19.24%	34	3.14%	634	58.38%	1,086
Wibaux	463	84.80%	71	13.00%	12	2.20%	392	71.80%	546
Yellowstone	50,460	62.00%	28,392	34.88%	2,541	3.12%	22,068	27.12%	81,393
Totals	352,079	58.27%	231,906	38.38%	20,196	3.35%	120,173	19.89%	604,181

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Big Horn (largest city: Hardin)
• Blaine (largest city: Chinook)

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won both congressional districts.^[40]

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	54%	43%	Ryan Zinke
2nd	63%	34%	Matt Rosendale (118th Congress)
			Troy Downing (119th Congress)

Analysis

Although somewhat less conservative than its neighboring states, Montana – a sparsely populated state in the Northern Rockies and Great Plains – has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton narrowly did so in 1992, neither has it been competitive at the presidential level since Democrat Barack Obama came up less than 3 points shy of carrying the state in 2008. With the exception of 2008, the state has been carried by Republican presidential candidates by double digits since 2000.

However, despite the state's strong Republican lean, Montana received significant attention from both parties due to the simultaneous U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, which was seen as competitive but favoring Sheehy, who ended up winning by over seven points. Trump's victory is seen to have helped Sheehy win via the coattail effect, thus flipping Montana's last remaining Democratic statewide office into the Republican column.

Trump gained nearly everywhere in the state but especially in counties with high Native American populations, such as Big Horn County, Glacier County, and Blaine County; he was the first to win Big Horn since Ronald Reagan in 1980. In addition, his 9.5% victory in Roosevelt County is the best for a presidential Republican since Reagan's 10.5% in 1984; the historically-Democratic county, home to much of the Fort Peck Reservation, has voted for Trump in all three of his election bids. With Clallam County, Washington voting for Harris, Blaine County now holds the longest active bellwether streak in the nation, having last voted for a losing presidential candidate in 1988, its only miss outside of its inaugural election in 1912. Trump also came within just 47 votes of winning Deer Lodge County, thus giving the best performance for a Republican there since Calvin Coolidge last won the county in 1924.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Montana
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Someone else" with 2%
3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
4. "Some other candidate" with 1%
5. "Other" with 3%
6. "Someone else" with 7%
7. Joe Manchin with 6%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
2. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
3. Poll commissioned by AARP
4. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
5. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
6. Poll sponsored by KULR-TV
7. Poll commissioned by Common Sense for America PAC, which supports Republican candidates
8. Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
9. Poll conducted by More Jobs, Less Government which supports Republican candidates
10. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign