2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.^[2]

2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	76.6%[1] 0.1 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Electoral vote 19 0 Popular vote 3,543,308 3,423,042 Percentage 50.37% 48.66%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Tie/No Votes
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

Pennsylvania held the largest electoral prize of all major swing states in 2024. As such, it was generally forecasted that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency.^[3] Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election.^[4]

Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.7%, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1.71% and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won over 50% of the state vote.

Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor General. Except for the Senate race, all 2024 Pennsylvania Republican statewide candidates won over 50% of the vote.^[5] Trump received more than 3.5 million votes, the most cast for any candidate in Pennsylvania history.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 23, 2024^[6]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	926,633	88.2%	159		159
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	68,310	6.5%
Write-in votes	55,611	5.3%
Total:	1,050,554	100.0%	159	27	186

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary

Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 23, 2024^[7]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	794,048	83.35%	16	46	67
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	158,672	16.65%
Unprojected delegates:				5
Total:	952,720	100.00%	16	51	67

General election

Voting law changes

In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.^[8] Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.^[9]

Trump assassination attempt

Main article: Attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania

On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer, Corey D. Comperatore of Sarver, PA, died and two others were critically injured.^[10][11]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[12]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[13]	Lean D	November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[14]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNN[15]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNalysis[16]	Lean D	November 4, 2024
The Economist[17]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
538[18]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[19]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
NBC News[20]	Tossup	November 4, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided [a]	Margin
270ToWin[21]	October 23 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.2%	48.2%	3.6%	Tie
538[22]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	47.9%	47.7%	4.4%	Harris +0.2%
Silver Bulletin[23]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.0%	48.1%	3.9%	Trump +0.1%
Real Clear Politics[24]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.5%	48.9%	2.6%	Trump +0.4%
The Hill/DDHQ[25]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	48.0%	48.8%	3.2%	Trump +0.8%
Average			48.12%	48.34%	3.8%	Trump +0.22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
HarrisX[26]	November 3–5, 2024	2,333 (RV)	± 2.3%	49%	45%	6%
				52%[c]	48%	–
		2,103 (LV)		51%	46%	3%
				52%[c]	48%	–
AtlasIntel[27]	November 3–4, 2024	1,840 (LV)	± 2.0%	49%	50%	1%
Research Co.[28]	November 2–3, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	48%	47%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[29]	November 1–3, 2024	1,089 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	48%	5%[d]
Patriot Polling[30]	November 1–3, 2024	903 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	1%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[31]	November 1–2, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	49%	3%[e]
AtlasIntel[32]	November 1–2, 2024	2,049 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	50%	2%
Emerson College[33]	October 30 – November 2, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%[f]
				49%[c]	50%	1%[f]
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[34]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	1,527 (RV)	± 3.5%	47%	47%	5%
		1,527 (LV)		48%	48%	4%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[35]	October 25 – November 2, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.1%	48%	46%	6%[g]
		699 (LV)		49%	47%	4%[h]
ActiVote[36]	October 10 – November 2, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	50.5%	49.5%	–
SoCal Strategies (R)[37][A]	October 30–31, 2024	850 (LV)	± 3.6%	50%	48%	2%
AtlasIntel[38]	October 30–31, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	49%	3%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[39]	October 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	–	47%	49%	4%
YouGov[40][B]	October 25–31, 2024	982 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	48%	2%
		956 (LV)		51%	48%	1%
Morning Consult[41]	October 22−31, 2024	1,395 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[42]	October 27–30, 2024	460 (RV)	± 6.0%	49%	47%	4%[i]
Marist College[43]	October 27–30, 2024	1,558 (RV)	± 3.2%	51%	47%	2%[j]
		1,400 (LV)	± 3.4%	50%	48%	2%[j]
Echelon Insights[44]	October 27–30, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	52%	2%
AtlasIntel[45]	October 25–29, 2024	1,299 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	50%	3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][C]	October 25–28, 2024	849 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%[e]
Fox News[47]	October 24–28, 2024	1,310 (RV)	± 2.5%	50%	48%	2%
		1,057 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	1%
Quinnipiac University[48]	October 24–28, 2024	2,186 (LV)	± 2.1%	47%	49%	4%
CBS News/YouGov[49]	October 22–28, 2024	1,273 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	49%	1%[k]
InsiderAdvantage (R)[50]	October 26–27, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	5%[d]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[51]	October 25–27, 2024	1,116 (LV)	± 2.8%	48%	48%	4%[e]
North Star Opinion Research (R)[52][D]	October 22–26, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	6%[e]
CES/YouGov[53]	October 1–25, 2024	3,708 (A)	–	50%	47%	3%
		3,685 (LV)		49%	48%	3%
Emerson College[54][E]	October 21–22, 2024	860 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	49%	3%
				49%[c]	51%	–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[55]	October 20–22, 2024	1,586 (LV)	± 2.3%	48%	47%	5%[e]
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[56][F]	October 18−22, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	46%	8%
Quantus Insights (R)[57][G]	October 17−20, 2024	840 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	50%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58]	October 16–20, 2024	866 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
		812 (LV)		50%	48%	2%
Franklin & Marshall College[59]	October 9−20, 2024	890 (RV)	± 4.3%	48%	44%	8%
		583 (LV)	± 5.0%	49%	50%	1%
Trafalgar Group (R)[60]	October 17−19, 2024	1,084 (LV)	± 2.9%	43%	46%	11%[l]
The Bullfinch Group[61]	October 11−18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	49%	2%
				49%	48%	3%[m]
AtlasIntel[62]	October 12–17, 2024	2,048 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	50%	3%
Rose Institute/YouGov[63]	October 7–17, 2024	1,062 (RV)	± 3.4%	48%	46%	6%[n]
		1,043 (LV)		50%	48%	2%
Morning Consult[41]	October 6−15, 2024	1,395 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	48%	3%
The Washington Post/Schar School[64]	September 30 – October 15, 2024	707 (RV)	± 4.6%	49%	46%	5%
		707 (LV)		49%	47%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[65][C]	October 9–13, 2024	1,072 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	50%	3%[o]
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[66]	October 7–10, 2024	857 (RV)	± 4.0%	50%	47%	4%
		857 (LV)		50%	47%	3%
American Pulse Research & Polling[67]	October 2–10, 2024	1,193 (LV)	± 2.8%	49.5%	50.5%	–
TIPP Insights[68][D]	October 7–9, 2024	1,079 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	45%	6%
		803 (LV)		48%	49%	3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[69][H]	October 6–9, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	49%	3%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[70]	October 7–8, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	49%	4%[e]
Emerson College[71]	October 5–8, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%[f]
				49%[c]	50%	1%[f]
The Wall Street Journal[72]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	46%	47%	7%
Research Co.[73]	October 5–7, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	48%	47%	5%[p]
				50%[c]	49%	1%[p]
Quinnipiac University[74]	October 3–7, 2024	1,412 (LV)	± 2.6%	49%	47%	4%
Hunt Research[75][I]	October 2–7, 2024	1,037 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	48%	5%
Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov[76][J]	September 24 – October 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 4.2%	47%	45%	8%[q]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[77][K]	September 24 – October 2, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	46%	8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[78][L]	September 28–29, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	47%	6%[d]
Patriot Polling[79]	September 27–29, 2024	816 (RV)	–	49%	50%	1%
The Bullfinch Group[80][M]	September 26–29, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[81]	September 26–29, 2024	1,090 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	48%	7%[d]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[82][N]	September 23–29, 2024	408 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	48%	4%
Emerson College[83][E]	September 27–28, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%[r]
				49%[c]	49%	2%[r]
AtlasIntel[84]	September 20–25, 2024	1,775 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	51%	1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[85]	September 19–25, 2024	474 (LV)	–	50%	49%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[86]	September 19–25, 2024	993 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	5%
		924 (LV)		51%	46%	3%
ActiVote[87]	September 1–25, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	52%	48%	–
Fox News[88]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	48%	2%
		775 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	49%	2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[89][O]	September 17–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	47%	3%
Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[90][P]	September 19–23, 2024	400 (LV)	–	48%	48%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[91][C]	September 19–22, 2024	1,202 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%[o]
				50%[c]	49%	1%[o]
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[92][F]	September 16–22, 2024	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	46%	8%[o]
RMG Research[93][Q]	September 18–20, 2024	783 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	47%	5%[s]
				49%[c]	49%	3%[t]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[94]	September 16–19, 2024	450 (RV)	± 6.0%	48%	48%	4%[u]
Emerson College[95]	September 15–18, 2024	880 (LV)	± 3.2%	47%	48%	5%[f]
				50%[c]	49%	1%[f]
MassINC Polling Group[96][R]	September 12−18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	52%	47%	1%
Morning Consult[41]	September 9−18, 2024	1,756 (LV)	± 2.0%	49%	47%	4%
Marist College[97]	September 12−17, 2024	1,663 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	48%	3%[v]
		1,476 (LV)	± 3.2%	49%	49%	2%[j]
The Washington Post[98]	September 12−16, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.6%	48%	47%	5%[t]
		1,003 (LV)		48%	48%	4%[t]
Quinnipiac University[99]	September 12−16, 2024	1,331 (LV)	± 2.7%	51%	46%	2%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[100]	September 11−16, 2024	1,082 (RV)	± 3.8%	50%	46%	4%
		1,082 (LV)		50%	46%	4%
Suffolk University/USA Today[101]	September 11−16, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	46%	5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[102]	September 14−15, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	50%	2%[o]
	September 10, 2024	The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC
Morning Consult[41]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	1,910 (LV)	± 2.0%	49%	46%	5%
co/efficient (R)[103]	September 4–6, 2024	889 (LV)	± 3.3%	46%	48%	6%
CBS News/YouGov[104]	September 3–6, 2024	1,078 (LV)	± 3.5%	50%	50%	–
Patriot Polling[105]	September 1–3, 2024	857 (RV)	–	48%	49%	3%
Trafalgar Group (R)[106]	August 28–30, 2024	1,082 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	47%	8%[d]
Wick Insights[107][S]	August 27–29, 2024	1,607 (LV)	–	49%	49%	2%
Emerson College[108]	August 25–28, 2024	950 (LV)	± 3.1%	48%	48%	4%[f]
				49%[c]	49%	1%[f]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[109]	August 23–26, 2024	803 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	47%	2%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	48%	1%
SoCal Strategies (R)[110][A]	August 23, 2024	713 (LV)	–	47%	48%	5%
		800 (RV)		47%	47%	6%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
YouGov[111][T]	August 15–23, 2024	500 (A)	± 5.1%	43%	43%	14%[w]
		– (LV)	± 6.0%	47%	47%	6%[x]
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
Institute for Global Affairs/YouGov[112]	August 15–22, 2024	350 (A)	± 6.0%	40%	44%	16%[y]
ActiVote[113]	August 5–22, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	51%	49%	–
Fabrizio Ward (R)[114][U]	August 19–21, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	46%	47%	7%
Spry Strategies (R)[115][V]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[116]	August 18–19, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	47%	7%[d]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[117][W]	August 13–17, 2024	1,312 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	47%	7%
Focaldata[118]	August 6–16, 2024	719 (LV)	± 3.7%	50%	50%	–
Cygnal (R)[119]	August 14–15, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	47%	5%
Emerson College[120][E]	August 13–14, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
				49%[c]	51%	–
Quinnipiac University[121]	August 8–12, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.4%	50%	47%	3%
The Bullfinch Group[122][X]	August 8–11, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	49%	45%	6%
The New York Times/Siena College[123]	August 6–9, 2024	693 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	46%	5%
		693 (LV)		50%	46%	4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[124]	August 6–8, 2024	1,078 (LV)	± 2.9%	44%	46%	10%
Navigator Research (D)[125]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	48%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[126]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	411 (LV)	–	49%	48%	3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[127][Y]	July 29 – August 1, 2024	600 (LV)	–	48%	48%	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[128][Z]	July 29–30, 2024	627 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	48%	5%
GQR Research (D)[129]	July 26–30, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	46%	4%[z]
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[130][AA]	July 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	45%	7%
Quantus Insights (R)[131]	July 27–28, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	48%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	50%	4%
The Bullfinch Group[133][M]	July 23–25, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	48%	47%	5%
Fox News[134]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	49%	2%
Emerson College[135]	July 22–23, 2024	850 (RV)	± 3.3%	46%	48%	6%
				49%[c]	51%	–
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
North Star Opinion Research (R)[136][D]	July 20–23, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	47%	9%
SoCal Strategies (R)[137][AB]	July 20–21, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	50%	4%
	July 19, 2024	Republican National Convention concludes
InsiderAdvantage (R)[138]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	47%	13%
	July 15, 2024	Republican National Convention begins
	July 13, 2024	Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	45%	51%	4%
The New York Times/Siena College[140]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	46%	48%	6%
		872 (LV)		47%	48%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[141]	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	50%	7%
Emerson College[142]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	49%	11%
The New York Times/Siena College[143]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	44%	47%	9%
		600 (LV)		44%	48%	8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein Green	Cornel West Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Others/ Undecided [aa]	Margin
Race to the WH[144]	through October 28, 2024	November 2, 2024	48.0%	47.5%	1.0%	—	0.6%	2.9%	Harris +0.5%
270toWin[145]	October 17 – 28, 2024	November 2, 2024	47.9%	47.9%	0.8%	—	0.7%	2.7%	Tie
Average			47.95%	47.7%	0.9%	—	0.65%	2.8%	Harris +0.25%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
HarrisX[26]	November 3–5, 2024	2,333 (RV)	± 2.3%	48%	45%	1%	1%	–	5%
				50%[c]	47%	2%	1%	–	–
		2,103 (LV)		50%	46%	1%	0%	–	3%
				51.0%[c]	47.5%	1.0%	0.5%	–	–
AtlasIntel[27]	November 3–4, 2024	1,840 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	49%	–	1%	0%	2%
Survation[146]	November 1–4, 2024	941 (LV)	± 3.9%	49%	47%	–	1%	1%	2%
		915 (LV)		50.6%	47.8%	–	0.9%	0.7%	–
AtlasIntel[32]	November 1–2, 2024	2,049 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	1%	2%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[34]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	1,527 (RV)	± 3.5%	46%	47%	–	1%	1%	5%
		1,527 (LV)		47%	47%	–	1%	0%	5%
Focaldata[147]	October 3 – November 1, 2024	2,373 (LV)	–	50%	48%	–	1%	1%	–
		2,119 (RV)	± 2.0%	51%	47%	–	1%	1%	–
		2,373 (A)	–	49%	47%	–	1%	2%	1%
AtlasIntel[38]	October 30–31, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	1%	2%
Data for Progress (D)[148]	October 25–31, 2024	908 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	48%	–	1%	0%	2%
YouGov[40][B]	October 25–31, 2024	982 (RV)	± 3.5%	48%	46%	0%	1%	–	5%
		956 (LV)		49%	46%	0%	0%	–	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[149]	October 28–31, 2024	1,596 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
Suffolk University/USA Today[150]	October 27–30, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	49%	–	0%	1%	1%
Echelon Insights[44]	October 27–30, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.5%	46%	51%	–	1%	0%	2%
The Washington Post[151]	October 26–30, 2024	1,204 (RV)	± 3.1%	48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%[t]
		1,204 (LV)		48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%
AtlasIntel[45]	October 25–29, 2024	1,299 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	1%	2%
Quinnipiac University[48]	October 24–28, 2024	2,186 (LV)	± 2.1%	46%	47%	–	2%	1%	4%
CNN/SSRS[152]	October 23–28, 2024	819 (LV)	± 4.7%	48%	48%	–	1%	1%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[153]	October 25–27, 2024	1,116 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[52][D]	October 22–26, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[154]	October 16–23, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155]	October 20–22, 2024	1,586 (LV)	–	48%	47%	–	0%	1%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[58]	October 16–20, 2024	866 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	–	0%	2%	2%
		812 (LV)		50%	48%	–	0%	1%	1%
Franklin & Marshall College[59]	October 9–20, 2024	890 (RV)	± 4.3%	49%	45%	–	2%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[156]	October 16–18, 2024	1,256 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
AtlasIntel[62]	October 12–17, 2024	2,048 (LV)	± 2.0%	47%	50%	–	2%	0%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[157]	October 12–14, 2024	1,649 (LV)	–	48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[66]	October 7–10, 2024	857 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	45%	–	2%	1%	3%
		857 (LV)		49%	45%	–	1%	0%	5%
American Pulse Research & Polling[67]	October 2–10, 2024	1,193 (LV)	–	48%	49%	–	2%	0%	1%[o]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[158]	October 8–9, 2024	707 (LV)	–	46%	48%	–	0%	1%	5%
TIPP Insights[68][D]	October 7–9, 2024	1,079 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	45%	1%	1%	–	4%
		803 (LV)		48%	49%	1%	0%	–	2%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[159]	October 2–9, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	45%	–	1%	0%	8%
J.L. Partners[160][AC]	October 5–8, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Quinnipiac University[74]	October 3–7, 2024	1,412 (LV)	± 2.6%	49%	46%	–	1%	1%	3%
Hunt Research[75][I]	October 2–7, 2024	1,037 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[161]	September 27 – October 2, 2024	5,686 (LV)	–	48%	47%	–	0%	1%	4%
The Bullfinch Group[80][M]	September 26–29, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	50%	46%	–	1%	0%	3%
AtlasIntel[84]	September 20–25, 2024	1,775 (LV)	± 2.0%	48%	51%	–	0%	0%	1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[86]	September 19–25, 2024	993 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	44%	–	0%	4%	2%
		924 (LV)		51%	45%	–	0%	3%	1%
Fox News[88]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	46%	–	1%	2%	3%
		775 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	–	2%	2%	1%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[89][O]	September 17–24, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	47%	–	1%	0%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[162]	September 16–19, 2024	1,086 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	0%	1%	5%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[163]	September 11–19, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	46%	–	1%	1%	4%
MassINC Polling Group[96][R]	September 12−18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.0%	50%	46%	−	1%	0%	3%
Quinnipiac University[99]	September 12−16, 2024	1,331 (LV)	± 2.7%	51%	45%	−	1%	0%	3%
Franklin & Marshall College[164]	September 4–15, 2024	890 (RV)	± 4.1%	49%	46%	–	1%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[165]	September 6–9, 2024	801 (LV)	–	45%	45%	–	0%	1%	9%
YouGov[166][B]	August 23 – September 3, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.6%	46%	45%	0%	1%	–	8%[o]
Wick Insights[107][S]	August 27–29, 2024	1,607 (LV)	–	47%	48%	–	1%	1%	3%
CNN/SSRS[167]	August 23–29, 2024	789 (LV)	± 4.7%	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[168]	August 25–28, 2024	1,071 (LV)	–	46%	45%	–	1%	0%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[109]	August 23–26, 2024	803 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	46%	–	1%	1%	1%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	45%	–	2%	1%	1%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[85]	September 19–25, 2024	474 (LV)	–	49%	47%	1%	3%
Remington Research Group (R)[169][AD]	September 16–20, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	1%	4%
The Washington Post[98]	September 12−16, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.6%	48%	47%	1%	4%[t]
		1,003 (LV)		48%	47%	1%	4%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Fox News[47]	October 24–28, 2024	1,310 (RV)	± 2.5%	48%	46%	3%	0%	1%	1%	1%
		1,057 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	2%	0%	1%	0%	1%
The Wall Street Journal[72]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	45%	46%	0%	0%	2%	1%	6%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[82][N]	September 23–29, 2024	408 (LV)	± 4.9%	47%	47%	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[100]	September 11−16, 2024	1,082 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	45%	0%	0%	1%	1%	5%
		1,082 (LV)		49%	45%	0%	0%	1%	1%	4%
YouGov[111][T]	August 15–23, 2024	500 (A)	± 5.1%	43%	41%	3%	0%	1%	1%	11%[ab]
		– (LV)	± 5.9%	48%	46%	2%	0%	1%	1%	2%
Spry Strategies (R)[115][V]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	45%	4%	–	1%	–	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[117][W]	August 13–17, 2024	1,312 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	45%	5%	0%	1%	–	3%
Focaldata[118]	August 6–16, 2024	719 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	47%	4%	–	0%	0%	1%
		719 (RV)		49%	46%	4%	–	0%	0%	1%
		719 (A)		47%	47%	4%	–	0%	0%	2%
Cygnal (R)[119]	August 14–15, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.4%	43%	44%	5%	2%	2%	0%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[170]	August 12–15, 2024	825 (LV)	–	46%	44%	4%	–	0%	0%	6%
Emerson College[120][E]	August 13–14, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	47%	3%	0%	0%	0%	3%
Quinnipiac University[121]	August 8–12, 2024	1,738 (LV)	± 2.4%	48%	45%	4%	–	0%	0%	3%
The Bullfinch Group[122][X]	August 8–11, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	41%	6%	2%	0%	–	6%
Franklin & Marshall College[171]	July 31 – August 11, 2024	920 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	43%	6%	–	1%	1%	3%
The New York Times/Siena College[123]	August 6–9, 2024	693 (RV)	± 4.2%	45%	43%	5%	0%	2%	1%	5%
		693 (LV)		46%	44%	4%	0%	1%	1%	3%
Navigator Research (D)[125]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	46%	5%	1%	1%	1%	2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[126]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	411 (LV)	–	48%	43%	5%	0%	0%	–	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[172]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	743 (LV)	–	44%	46%	3%	–	0%	0%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[132]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	46%	3%	–	1%	4%	2%
The Bullfinch Group[133][M]	July 23–25, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	44%	6%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[173]	July 22–24, 2024	851 (LV)	–	42%	46%	5%	–	0%	0%	7%
Fox News[134]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	43%	7%	1%	1%	–	3%
Emerson College[135]	July 22–23, 2024	850 (RV)	± 3.3%	44%	46%	3%	1%	1%	0%	5%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Public Policy Polling (D)[174][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	43%	45%	4%	–	2%	–	6%
The New York Times/Siena College[140]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	40%	42%	7%	0%	3%	–	8%
		872 (LV)		42%	43%	6%	0%	2%	–	7%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Z to A Research (D)[175][AF]	August 23–26, 2024	613 (LV)	–	46%	46%	5%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)[114][U]	August 19–21, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	43%	43%	3%	11%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[127][Y]	July 29 – August 1, 2024	600 (LV)	–	45%	45%	4%	6%
Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[176]	July 22–28, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	43%	3%	7%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
Civiqs[177][AF]	July 13–16, 2024	536 (RV)	± 4.7%	44%	46%	5%	5%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
SoCal Strategies (R)[110][A]	August 23, 2024	713 (LV)	–	43%	47%	10%
		800 (RV)		41%	46%	13%
SoCal Strategies (R)[137][AB]	July 20–21, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	50%	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[174][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	44%	49%	7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[138]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%	49%	6%
Emerson College[178][AG]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	48%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	44%	47%	9%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[179][AH]	July 5–12, 2024	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
The New York Times/Siena College[140]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	48%	8%
		872 (LV)		45%	48%	7%
Echelon Insights[180][AI]	July 1–8, 2024	612 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	47%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[181]	July 1–5, 2024	794 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	51%	5%
Emerson College[182][AG]	June 30 – July 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	48%	9%
Cygnal (R)[183]	June 27–28, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	48%	8%
The Bullfinch Group[184][M]	June 14–19, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.46%	45%	44%	12%
Emerson College[185]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	8%
				49%[c]	51%	–
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[186]	May 30–31, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.1%	43%	45%	12%
		923 (LV)		45%	47%	8%
KAConsulting (R)[187][AJ]	May 15–19, 2024	600 (RV)	–	44%	44%	12%
Prime Group[188][AK]	May 9–16, 2024	487 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[141]	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[189]	May 6–13, 2024	730 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	48%	7%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[190]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	1,023 (RV)	± 3.6%	44%	47%	9%
		1,023 (LV)		45%	48%	7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[191][O]	April 24–30, 2024	1,398 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	49%	6%
Emerson College[192]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	8%
				49%[c]	51%	–
CBS News/YouGov[193]	April 19–25, 2024	1,288 (LV)	± 3.1%	49%	50%	1%
Muhlenberg College[194]	April 15–25, 2024	417 (RV)	± 6.0%	41%	44%	15%
John Zogby Strategies[195][AL]	April 13–21, 2024	628 (LV)	–	50%	45%	5%
Kaplan Strategies[196]	April 20–21, 2024	802 (RV)	± 3.5%	41%	46%	13%
Fox News[197]	April 11–16, 2024	1,141 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[198]	April 8–15, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	47%	7%
The Bullfinch Group[199][X]	March 29 – April 3, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18%[ac]
Franklin & Marshall College[200]	March 20–31, 2024	870 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	38%	14%
Big Data Poll (R)[201]	March 26–30, 2024	1,305 (RV)	± 2.6%	40%	46%	14%[ad]
				42%	44%	14%
				49%[c]	51%	−
The Wall Street Journal[202]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	47%	9%
Echelon Insights[203][AM]	March 12–19, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.5%	45%	49%	6%
CNN/SSRS[204]	March 13–18, 2024	1,132 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	46%	8%
Emerson College[205]	March 10–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	47%	10%
				48%[c]	52%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[206]	March 8–12, 2024	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	45%	10%
Fox News[207]	March 7–11, 2024	1,149 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[208]	February 27 – March 7, 2024	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	50%	45%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[209]	February 12–20, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	49%	8%
Emerson College[142]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	45%	12%
Chism Strategies[210]	February 6–8, 2024	500 (RV)	± 5.0%	32%	40%	28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[211]	January 22–25, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	48%	10%
Franklin & Marshall College[212]	January 17–28, 2024	507 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	42%	15%
Focaldata[213]	January 17–23, 2024	834 (A)	–	38%	46%	16%[ae]
		– (LV)		42%	47%	11%[af]
		– (LV)		49%[c]	51%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[214]	January 16–21, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	48%	7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[215]	January 15–21, 2024	745 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	39%	14%
Quinnipiac University[216]	January 4–8, 2024	1,680 (RV)	± 2.4%	49%	46%	5%[ag]
The Bullfinch Group[217]	December 14–18, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	45%	10%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)[218]	December 3–7, 2023	(RVs)	–	40%	46%	14%
Muhlenberg College[219]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	42%	41%	17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[220]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	799 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	46%	10%
Big Data Poll (R)[221]	November 16–19, 2023	1,382 (RV)	± 2.6%	37%	41%	22%[ah]
		1,284 (LV)		39%	41%	20%[ai]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[222]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	805 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College[223]	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
		816 (LV)	–	45%	49%	6%
The New York Times/Siena College[143]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	44%	48%	8%
		(600 LV)		44%	49%	7%
Franklin & Marshall College[224]	October 11–22, 2023	873 (RV)	± 4.1%	44%	42%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[225]	October 5–10, 2023	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	46%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[226]	October 7–9, 2023	900 (LV)	–	43%	42%	15%
Emerson College[227]	October 1–4, 2023	430 (RV)	± 4.7%	36%	45%	19%
Quinnipiac University[228]	September 28 – October 2, 2023	1,725 (RV)	± 2.4%	45%	47%	8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[229]	September 19–28, 2023	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	47%	45%	8%[aj]
Public Policy Polling (D)[230][AN]	September 25–26, 2023	673 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	45%	7%
National Public Affairs[231]	September 14–17, 2023	622 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	45%	8%
Franklin & Marshall College[232]	August 9–20, 2023	723 (RV)	± 4.5%	42%	40%	18%
Prime Group[233][AK]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	50%	50%	–
				38%	43%	19%[ak]
Quinnipiac University[234]	June 22–26, 2023	1,584 (RV)	± 2.5%	46%	47%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[235][AO]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	48%	45%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[236][AO]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	42%	12%
Franklin & Marshall College[237]	March 27 – April 7, 2023	643 (RV)	± 4.9%	36%	35%	29%
Susquehanna Polling & Research[238]	February 19–26, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.2%	48%	41%	11%
Targoz Market Research[239]	November 2–6, 2022	904 (RV)	–	48%	48%	4%
		631 (LV)	± 3.8%	46%	52%	2%
Emerson College[240]	October 28–31, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	44%	12%
Emerson College[241]	September 23–26, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	46%	9%
Echelon Insights[242][AI]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	828 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	43%	9%
Emerson College[243]	August 22–23, 2022	1,034 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	47%	11%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[244][AP]	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	42%	44%	14%
Blueprint Polling (D)[245]	July 19–21, 2022	712 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	41%	17%
Blueprint Polling (D)[246]	February 15–16, 2022	635 (LV)	± 3.9%	45%	40%	15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[247][H]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	51%	4%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College[178][AG]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	4%	1%	1%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[179][AH]	July 5–12, 2024	1,041 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	6%	1%	2%	3%
YouGov[248][B]	July 4–12, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	43%	3%	1%	1%	12%
The New York Times/Siena College[140]	July 9–11, 2024	872 (RV)	± 3.7%	38%	41%	8%	0%	2%	11%
		872 (LV)		40%	42%	7%	0%	2%	9%
Echelon Insights[180][AI]	July 1–8, 2024	612 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	42%	6%	1%	2%	5%[al]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[181]	July 1–5, 2024	794 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	44%	7%	1%	1%	6%
Cygnal (R)[183]	June 27–28, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	38%	42%	9%	2%	2%	7%
Emerson College[185]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	45%	5%	0%	1%	12%
Marist College[249]	June 3–6, 2024	1,181 (RV)	± 3.6%	45%	47%	3%	1%	1%	3%[am]
KAConsulting (R)[187][AJ]	May 15–19, 2024	600 (RV)	–	39%	41%	9%	1%	3%	7%[an]
Prime Group[188][AK]	May 9–16, 2024	487 (RV)	–	45%	42%	9%	2%	2%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[141]	May 7–13, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	45%	7%	2%	1%	3%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[189]	May 6–13, 2024	730 (LV)	± 3.6%	40%	43%	7%	2%	2%	6%
The New York Times/Siena College/The Philadelphia Inquirer[190]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	1,023 (RV)	± 3.6%	36%	40%	10%	0%	1%	13%[ao]
		1,023 (LV)		37%	41%	9%	0%	1%	12%[ao]
Emerson College[192]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	45%	6%	1%	1%	7%
Fox News[197]	April 11–16, 2024	1,141 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	44%	8%	1%	2%	3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[198]	April 8–15, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	43%	8%	0%	1%	6%
The Wall Street Journal[202]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	41%	7%	3%	1%	10%
Emerson College[205]	March 10–13, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	44%	5%	1%	1%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[206]	March 8–12, 2024	807 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	44%	7%	0%	1%	10%
Fox News[207]	March 7–11, 2024	1,149 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	42%	9%	2%	2%	3%
Axis Research[250][AQ]	February 25–27, 2024	601 (RV)	± 4.1%	40%	39%	8%	1%	2%	20%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[209]	February 12–20, 2024	803 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	45%	8%	1%	1%	9%
Emerson College[142]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	42%	8%	2%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[251]	January 16–21, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	7%	1%	1%	8%
Quinnipiac University[216]	January 4–8, 2023	1,680 (RV)	± 2.4%	41%	39%	11%	2%	4%	3%[ap]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[252]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	799 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	39%	9%	1%	1%	12%
Big Data Poll (R)[221]	November 16–19, 2023	1,382 (RV)	± 2.6%	35%	40%	9%	1%	1%	14%[aq]
		1,284 (LV)		37%	41%	9%	1%	1%	11%[t]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[174][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	42%	46%	4%	2%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[253]	July 16–18, 2024	688 (LV)	–	41%	45%	4%	1%	9%[ar]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[254]	July 8–10, 2024	719 (LV)	–	40%	45%	6%	1%	8%[ar]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[255]	June 8–11, 2024	456 (LV)	–	42%	44%	5%	1%	8%[ar]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[256]	May 2–4, 2024	635 (LV)	–	41%	43%	7%	0%	9%
Franklin & Marshall College[200]	March 20–31, 2024	870 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	40%	9%	3%	8%
Big Data Poll (R)[201]	March 26–30, 2024	1,305 (RV)	± 2.6%	40%	44%	8%	2%	6%
				42%[c]	46%	9%	3%	−
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[257]	March 14–17, 2024	775 (LV)	–	41%	44%	7%	1%	7%
Franklin & Marshall College[212]	January 17–28, 2024	494 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	37%	8%	2%	11%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Civiqs[177][AF]	July 13–16, 2024	536 (RV)	± 4.7%	42%	46%	6%	6%
1983 Labs[258]	June 28–30, 2024	741 (LV)	± 3.6%	41%	46%	3%	10%[al]
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[186]	May 30–31, 2024	1,012 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	39%	8%	12%
		923 (LV)		43%	42%	7%	8%
Muhlenberg College[194]	April 15–25, 2024	417 (RV)	± 6.0%	35%	35%	18%	12%
Big Data Poll (R)[201]	March 26–30, 2024	1,305 (RV)	± 2.6%	39%	45%	7%	6%[as]
				40%[c]	45%	8%	7%[at]
The Bullfinch Group[259][M]	March 22–26, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	41%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[260]	December 28–30, 2023	1,069 (LV)	–	39%	40%	9%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[261]	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	37%	44%	7%	10%
Big Data Poll (R)[221]	November 16–19, 2023	1,382 (RV)	± 2.6%	36%	40%	8%	16%[au]
		1,284 (LV)		38%	41%	8%	13%[av]
The New York Times/Siena College[262]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6	35%	35%	23%	7%
		600 (LV)		36%	36%	21%	7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[226]	October 7–9, 2023	900 (LV)	–	39%	39%	9%	13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
CNN/SSRS[204]	March 13–18, 2024	1,132 (RV)	± 3.8%	38%	40%	16%	4%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[263]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	805 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	41%	8%	1%	12%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[195][AL]	April 13–21, 2024	628 (LV)	–	47%	42%	11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[195][AL]	April 13–21, 2024	628 (LV)	–	40%	41%	19%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	42%	51%	7%
Emerson College[142]	February 14–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	33%	48%	19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Gretchen Whitmer Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News[134]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	42%	50%	8%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	JB Pritzker Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	37%	50%	13%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Fox News[134]	July 22–24, 2024	1,034 (RV)	± 3.0%	54%	44%	2%
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	47%	46%	7%
Muhlenberg College[219]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	48%	37%	15%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[174][AE]	July 17–18, 2024	624 (RV)	± 3.8%	47%	43%	3%	1%	6%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Pete Buttigieg Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[139][Z]	July 11–12, 2024	537 (RV)	–	41%	50%	9%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
Muhlenberg College[219]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	33%	38%	29%
The New York Times/Siena College[264]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	38%	48%	14%
		600 (LV)		39%	49%	12%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[229]	September 19–28, 2023	700 (RV)	± 3.7%	44%	45%	11%[aj]

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[261]	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	36%	26%	18%	20%[aw]

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Axis Research[250][AQ]	February 25–27, 2024	601 (RV)	± 4.1%	39%	19%	13%	1%	1%	27%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Muhlenberg College[219]	November 20 – December 13, 2023	421 (RV)	± 6.0%	41%	39%	20%
The New York Times/Siena College[264]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.6%	43%	45%	12%
		600 (LV)		43%	47%	10%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[265]	May 2–8, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	39%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[235][AO]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	48%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[236][AO]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	45%	13%
Echelon Insights[242][AI]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	828 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	42%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[261]	November 27–29, 2023	887 (LV)	–	37%	34%	13%	12%[ax]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[265]	May 2–8, 2023	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	38%	20%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania^[266][267]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	3,543,308	50.37	+1.53
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	3,423,042	48.66	−1.35
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	34,538	0.49	+0.47
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	33,318	0.47	−0.67
Total votes			7,034,206	100.00	N/A

By county

County[268]	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	40,248	66.12%	19,842	32.60%	781	1.28%	20,406	33.52%	60,871
Allegheny	283,595	39.18%	429,916	59.40%	10,288	1.42%	-146,321	-20.22%	723,799
Armstrong	28,296	76.05%	8,553	22.99%	360	0.96%	19,743	53.06%	37,209
Beaver	56,837	59.71%	37,196	39.07%	1,161	1.22%	19,641	20.64%	95,194
Bedford	23,658	83.84%	4,336	15.37%	224	0.79%	19,322	68.47%	28,218
Berks	116,677	55.45%	91,125	43.31%	2,624	1.24%	25,552	12.14%	210,426
Blair	46,352	71.16%	18,127	27.83%	661	1.01%	28,225	43.33%	65,140
Bradford	22,937	73.53%	7,990	25.62%	265	0.85%	14,947	47.91%	31,192
Bucks	198,722	49.39%	198,431	49.32%	5,196	1.29%	291	0.07%	402,349
Butler	79,773	65.45%	40,661	33.36%	1,444	1.19%	39,112	32.09%	121,878
Cambria	49,408	69.25%	21,177	29.68%	760	1.07%	28,231	39.57%	71,345
Cameron	1,654	74.27%	538	24.16%	35	1.57%	1,116	50.11%	2,227
Carbon	23,708	66.90%	11,394	32.15%	334	0.95%	12,314	34.75%	35,436
Centre	38,829	47.85%	41,119	50.67%	1,205	1.48%	-2,290	-2.82%	81,153
Chester	137,299	42.06%	184,281	56.45%	4,849	1.49%	-46,982	-14.39%	326,429
Clarion	15,036	76.00%	4,562	23.06%	185	0.94%	10,474	52.94%	19,783
Clearfield	30,481	75.23%	9,647	23.81%	387	0.96%	20,834	51.42%	40,515
Clinton	12,965	69.83%	5,395	29.06%	207	1.11%	7,570	40.77%	18,567
Columbia	21,190	64.78%	11,083	33.88%	436	1.34%	10,107	30.90%	32,709
Crawford	29,685	69.04%	12,858	29.90%	456	1.06%	16,827	39.14%	42,999
Cumberland	80,267	53.85%	66,255	44.45%	2,546	1.70%	14,012	9.40%	149,068
Dauphin	69,474	46.29%	78,327	52.19%	2,280	1.52%	-8,853	-5.90%	150,081
Delaware	123,421	37.49%	201,324	61.15%	4,470	1.36%	-77,903	-23.66%	329,215
Elk	12,543	72.87%	4,483	26.04%	187	1.09%	8,060	46.83%	17,213
Erie	68,866	49.91%	67,456	48.89%	1,657	1.20%	1,410	1.02%	137,979
Fayette	43,633	68.67%	19,548	30.76%	362	0.57%	24,085	37.91%	63,543
Forest	1,902	71.50%	724	27.22%	34	1.28%	1,178	44.28%	2,660
Franklin	59,604	70.82%	23,543	27.97%	1,016	1.21%	36,061	42.85%	84,163
Fulton	7,039	86.03%	1,102	13.47%	41	0.50%	5,937	72.56%	8,182
Greene	12,319	71.47%	4,592	26.64%	325	1.89%	7,727	44.83%	17,236
Huntingdon	17,627	75.96%	5,368	23.13%	211	0.91%	12,259	52.83%	23,206
Indiana	29,215	69.01%	12,697	29.99%	425	1.00%	16,518	39.02%	42,337
Jefferson	18,235	78.66%	4,707	20.30%	241	1.04%	13,528	58.36%	23,183
Juniata	9,721	80.08%	2,290	18.86%	128	1.06%	7,431	61.22%	12,139
Lackawanna	56,261	48.12%	59,510	50.90%	1,154	0.98%	-3,249	-2.78%	116,925
Lancaster	166,261	57.20%	120,119	41.32%	4,292	1.48%	46,142	15.88%	290,672
Lawrence	31,347	66.34%	15,440	32.67%	468	0.99%	15,907	33.67%	47,255
Lebanon	48,282	65.26%	24,734	33.43%	970	1.31%	23,548	31.83%	73,986
Lehigh	91,207	47.91%	96,317	50.60%	2,844	1.49%	-5,110	-2.69%	190,368
Luzerne	92,444	59.10%	62,504	39.96%	1,484	0.94%	29,940	19.14%	156,432
Lycoming	41,961	70.11%	17,216	28.77%	669	1.12%	24,745	41.34%	59,846
McKean	14,401	72.92%	5,115	25.90%	234	1.18%	9,286	47.02%	19,750
Mercer	37,761	64.45%	20,145	34.38%	685	1.17%	17,616	30.07%	58,591
Mifflin	17,184	77.69%	4,735	21.41%	201	0.90%	12,449	56.28%	22,120
Monroe	42,676	49.77%	42,007	48.99%	1,069	1.24%	669	0.78%	85,752
Montgomery	198,311	37.91%	317,103	60.62%	7,724	1.47%	-118,792	-22.71%	523,138
Montour	5,944	59.76%	3,862	38.83%	141	1.41%	2,082	20.93%	9,947
Northampton	89,817	50.26%	86,655	48.49%	2,223	1.25%	3,162	1.77%	178,695
Northumberland	30,240	69.30%	12,863	29.48%	532	1.22%	17,377	39.82%	43,635
Perry	19,073	73.87%	6,385	24.73%	361	1.40%	12,688	49.14%	25,819
Philadelphia	144,311	19.94%	568,571	78.57%	10,728	1.49%	-424,260	-58.63%	723,610
Pike	21,537	61.48%	13,132	37.49%	362	1.03%	8,405	23.99%	35,031
Potter	7,334	80.43%	1,675	18.37%	109	1.20%	5,659	62.06%	9,118
Schuylkill	51,665	70.43%	20,882	28.46%	814	1.11%	30,783	41.97%	73,361
Snyder	14,664	73.02%	5,239	26.09%	178	0.89%	9,425	46.93%	20,081
Somerset	31,993	78.06%	8,596	20.97%	398	0.97%	23,397	57.09%	40,987
Sullivan	2,721	72.95%	976	26.17%	33	0.88%	1,745	46.78%	3,730
Susquehanna	16,114	71.71%	6,093	27.11%	264	1.18%	10,021	44.60%	22,471
Tioga	16,272	75.17%	5,100	23.56%	274	1.27%	11,172	51.61%	21,646
Union	12,969	61.01%	8,015	37.71%	273	1.28%	4,954	23.30%	21,257
Venango	18,883	70.44%	7,624	28.44%	302	1.12%	11,259	42.00%	26,809
Warren	14,345	68.99%	6,212	29.88%	235	1.13%	8,133	39.11%	20,792
Washington	75,929	62.26%	44,910	36.82%	1,117	0.92%	31,019	25.44%	121,956
Wayne	20,071	68.00%	9,150	31.00%	295	1.00%	10,921	37.00%	29,516
Westmoreland	135,008	63.65%	74,904	35.32%	2,186	1.03%	60,104	28.33%	212,098
Wyoming	10,222	67.72%	4,680	31.00%	193	1.28%	5,542	36.72%	15,095
York	154,884	61.92%	91,926	36.75%	3,326	1.33%	62,958	25.17%	250,136
Totals	3,543,308	50.20%	3,423,042	48.50%	91,919	1.30%	120,266	1.70%	7,058,269

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Bucks (largest city: Bensalem)^[269]
• Erie (largest city: Erie)^[269]
• Monroe (largest city: East Stroudsburg)^[269]
• Northampton (largest city: Bethlehem)^[269]

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Flip

By congressional district

Trump won nine of 17 congressional districts, with the remaining eight going to Harris, including one that elected a Republican.^[270]

District	Harris	Trump	Representative
1st	50%	49%	Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd	67%	32%	Brendan Boyle
3rd	88%	11%	Dwight Evans
4th	57%	42%	Madeleine Dean
5th	64%	35%	Mary Gay Scanlon
6th	55%	44%	Chrissy Houlahan
7th	48%	51%	Susan Wild (118th Congress)
			Ryan Mackenzie (119th Congress)
8th	45%	54%	Matt Cartwright (118th Congress)
			Rob Bresnahan (119th Congress)
9th	31%	69%	Dan Meuser
10th	47%	52%	Scott Perry
11th	39%	60%	Lloyd Smucker
12th	59%	40%	Summer Lee
13th	27%	72%	John Joyce
14th	33%	66%	Guy Reschenthaler
15th	31%	69%	Glenn Thompson
16th	38%	61%	Mike Kelly
17th	52%	47%	Chris Deluzio

Analysis

A Northeastern swing state within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania was seen as a pure toss-up this cycle. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump narrowly carried the state by 0.7% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 1.2% as the latter defeated the former nationwide.

Compared to 2020, Trump gained in nearly every county except for a few scattered around the interior of the state. His strongest gains were concentrated in Northeastern Pennsylvania, which, prior to his first run in 2016, was Democratic and historically had an economy focused around coal mining. He also made notable gains in the Philadelphia area, even in the suburban counties that had shifted against him in both of his past runs.

Trump placed first in 58 counties, four more than he did in 2020. He won Erie and Northampton counties, which voted for him in 2016 and Biden in 2020. He was the first Republican to win Bucks since George H. W. Bush in 1988, and to win Monroe since George W. Bush in 2004.^[269]

Exit poll data

2024 presidential election in Pennsylvania voter demographics[271]
Demographic subgroup	Trump	Harris	% of total vote
Ideology
Liberals	6	93	25
Moderates	43	56	41
Conservatives	91	8	34
Party
Democrats	5	95	36
Republicans	91	9	40
Independents	52	45	23
Gender
Men	58	41	48
Women	44	56	52
Race/ethnicity
White	56	44	83
Black	10	89	8
Latino	41	59	6
Asian	n/a	n/a	1
All other races	n/a	n/a	2
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men	60	39	41
White women	51	48	42
Black men	24	72	3
Black women	3	97	6
Latino men	n/a	n/a	2
Latina women	n/a	n/a	4
All other races	n/a	n/a	3
Age
18–29 years old	44	55	12
30–44 years old	47	52	26
45–64 years old	54	45	36
65 and older	52	48	25
First time voter
Yes	n/a	n/a	7
No	51	48	93
2020 presidential vote
Biden	5	94	44
Trump	97	3	44
Another candidate	n/a	n/a	2
Did not vote	54	45	8
Education
No college degree	58	41	59
College graduate	39	60	41
Education by race
White college graduates	42	58	35
White no college degree	65	34	47
Non-white college graduates	24	74	6
Non-white no college degree	26	73	11
Education by gender among White voters
White college graduate women	38	62	18
White women no degree	60	39	24
White college graduate men	46	53	17
White men no degree	71	28	23
Voters of color	26	73	17
Area type
Urban	30	69	21
Suburban	51	47	58
Rural	67	32	22
Biden job approval
Strongly disapprove	96	3	44
Somewhat disapprove	40	57	12
Somewhat approve	5	95	25
Strongly approve	3	97	17
Feeling about the way things are going in U.S.
Angry	74	25	31
Dissatisfied	55	44	40
Satisfied	15	84	20
Enthusiastic	n/a	n/a	6
Quality of candidate that mattered most
Has ability to lead	72	28	35
Can bring needed change	64	35	23
Has good judgment	20	79	20
Cares about people like me	19	79	17
Vote for president mainly
For your candidate	53	46	78
Against their opponent	36	62	19
Issue regarded as most important
Democracy	23	77	31
Economy	75	24	31
Abortion	23	77	15
Immigration	82	16	13
Foreign policy	n/a	n/a	3
Democracy threatened in the United States
Democracy in the U.S. very threatened	60	39	39
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat threatened	46	54	34
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat secure	40	59	19
Democracy in the U.S. very secure	n/a	n/a	6
Confident election being conducted fairly and accurately
Very confident	17	82	41
Somewhat confident	64	34	33
Not very confident	93	6	16
Not at all confident	n/a	n/a	5
Condition of the nation's economy
Poor	92	7	31
Not so good	50	49	36
Good	7	92	27
Excellent	n/a	n/a	4
Family's financial situation today
Worse than four years ago	83	16	48
About the same	22	78	29
Better than four years ago	8	92	22
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases	17	82	32
Legal in most cases	44	56	32
Illegal in most cases	93	5	24
Illegal in all cases	n/a	n/a	6
Union Household
Yes	44	56	20
No	50	49	80
View of fracking in your state
Favor	69	30	54
Oppose	18	81	37

See also

• United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Pennsylvania elections
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
4. "Other" with 3%
5. "Other" with 2%
6. "Someone else" with 1%
7. "Another Candidate" with 2%
8. "Another Candidate" with 1%
9. "Neither/Other" with 2%
10. "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
11. "Someone else/third party" with 1%
12. "Other" with 5%
13. "A third party / Independent candidate" with 2%
14. "Other" with 6%
15. "Other" with 1%
16. "Some other candidate" with 1%
17. "Another Candidate" with 3%
18. "Someone else" with 2%
19. "Some other candidate" with 3%
20. "Would not vote" with 1%
21. "Neither/Other" with 4%
22. "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
23. "Will not vote" with 6%
24. "Will not vote" with 1%
25. "I am eligible to vote but would not" with 8%; "Other" with 7%; "I am not eligible to vote" with 1%
26. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
27. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
28. "Will not vote" with 6%
29. Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
30. "Someone else / third party" with 8%
31. "Another candidate" with 10%
32. "Another candidate" with 7%
33. "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
34. "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 3%
35. "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 1%
36. "Other" with 4%
37. No Labels candidate
38. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
39. Chase Oliver (L) with >1%
40. Lars Mapstead with 1%
41. Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
42. "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
43. "Would not vote" with 3%
44. Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
45. "Someone else / third party" with 4%
46. "Someone else / third party" with 7%
47. "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 2%
48. "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
49. "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote" with 2%; "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1% each
50. "Other (Third Party/Write-In)", "Won't vote", & "Other (L)" with 1% each; "Other (G)" with 0%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
2. Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
3. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
4. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
5. Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
6. Poll sponsored by La Torre Live
7. Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
8. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
9. Poll conducted for the University of Austin
10. Poll sponsored by Jacobin
11. Poll conducted for the Article III Project
12. Poll conducted for the Sentinel Action Fund PAC
13. Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
14. Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
15. Poll commissioned by AARP
16. Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
17. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
18. Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
19. Poll sponsored by 2WAY
20. Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
21. Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
22. Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
23. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
24. Poll conducted for The Independent Center
25. Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
26. Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
27. Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
28. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
29. Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
30. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
31. Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
32. Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
33. Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
34. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
35. Poll sponsored by NetChoice
36. Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
37. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
38. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
39. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
40. Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
41. Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
42. Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
43. Poll sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance