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2025 Azerbaijani coup plot

Failed coup attempt in Asia From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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The 2025 Azerbaijani coup d'état attempt was a coup d'état to overthrow the government of Azerbaijan, reportedly involving senior members of the Azerbaijani political establishment. The plan was led by Ramiz Mehdiyev, a longtime political figure who served as Head of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan from 1994 to 2019 and later as President of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences.

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Background

Ramiz Mehdiyev was a prominent member of the Azerbaijani political elite for decades, serving under both Heydar Aliyev and his son Ilham Aliyev. Known for his pro-Moscow orientation and close connections with the Russian political establishment, Mehdiyev held several influential posts in the Azerbaijani government and academic institutions.[1]

Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia sharply deteriorated in late 2024, following the shootdown of an Azerbaijani civilian airliner by a Russian anti-aircraft missile, which killed 38 people.[2] Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev accused Moscow of failing to take responsibility for the incident, leading to a deep freeze in bilateral relations.[3]

In October 2025, Aliyev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, where Putin acknowledged that a Russian missile was responsible for the tragedy and promised compensation to the victims' families.[4][5] Although Aliyev expressed gratitude and suggested a possible thaw in relations, subsequent developments cast doubt on the durability of the rapprochement.

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Events

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According to a 16 October 2025 report by Azerbaijani media, Mehdiyev allegedly contacted Russian officials earlier that year, during the Azerbaijani-Russian diplomatic crisis, to propose a provisional state council to replace Aliyev's government.[6] The report claimed Mehdiyev intended to lead the council, and that Russian officials were initially receptive before deeming it unlikely to succeed.[6]

The purported letter suggested reforming the government to improve the country's image, proposing a shift from a presidential to a parliamentary republic with strengthened oversight and reduced authoritarian influence. The State Council would consist of 50 members from various professional backgrounds, overseeing legislative, executive, and judicial functions.

According to Azerbaijani media, Azerbaijani intelligence obtained the letter, which was later published despite legal restrictions.[7] Azerbaijani media also reported that President Putin informed Aliyev of the alleged plot during their October meeting in Dushanbe.[6] Mehdiyev was accused of attempting to seize state power and acquiring property illegally. According to reports, Russian authorities initially expressed interest in his proposal but subsequently determined that its prospects for success were limited.[8]

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Aftermath

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Suspects

According to Azerbaijani media reports, around fifty individuals are allegedly linked to Ramiz Mehdiyev's so-called “State Council” network, which is accused of plotting a coup attempt.

Arrests

On 24 September 2025, Azerbaijan's courts ordered the pre-trial detention of Adnan Ahmadzada, a senior executive formerly associated with the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR).[16] According to reports, Ahmadzada was placed under investigation by the State Security Service on charges of undermining state economic security and large-scale misappropriation of state property. The allegations centre on claims that he was involved in the mixing and contamination of Azeri Light crude oil with other petroleum sources, an act that allegedly distorted export quality and pricing. Media sources further suggested that the investigation may include accusations of facilitating the circumvention of international sanctions through irregular oil-trading practices.[17] Azerbaijani authorities reportedly suspected Russian involvement in the scheme, suggesting that the operation may have served broader geopolitical or financial networks linked to Moscow.[18]

In October 2025, several pro-government media outlets in Azerbaijan reported that Ramiz Mehdiyev had been charged with money laundering, treason, and attempted coup.[19] A court subsequently placed him under four months of house arrest, pending trial, with the charges carrying a potential sentence of up to 20 years in prison.[6]

Analysts and local media noted possible overlaps between the two investigations, with speculation that Ahmadzada's activities could be connected to Mehdiyev's alleged network, reflecting an extensive internal probe into pro-Russian influence and corruption within Azerbaijan's political and energy elite.

On 30 October 2025, Vugar Mammadov, editor-in-chief of Hurriyyet, was detained by the State Security Service (DTX), and some of his belongings and documents were seized, although a search of his home yielded nothing.[20] On the same day, the office of Futbol+, also founded by Mammadov, was raided, and its editor-in-chief, Mahir Rustamli, was detained.[20]

Additionally, Islam Rzayev, head of Azerbaijan's Balakan District, along with several other district officials, was detained by the DTX.[21] President Ilham Aliyev subsequently dismissed Rzayev from his post, which he had held for 14 years.[22]

On 4 November, Eldar Amirov, an aide to Ramiz Mehdiyev, was arrested on charges of attempting a coup d’état.[23]

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Third-party reactions

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Domestic

Pro-government figures

Following Ramiz Mehdiyev's fall from political prominence, several former government officials sought to distance themselves from him. Among them was Member of Parliament Zahid Oruj, who publicly apologised for previously referring to Mehdiyev as a "father figure."[24] Oruj asked President Ilham Aliyev for forgiveness, stating that he had been unaware of Mehdiyev's alleged actions and now regarded Aliyev as the true "father" of the nation.[24]

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov also denied any association with Mehdiyev.[10] In an interview with Musavat TV, Mammadyarov stated that after leaving the Presidential Administration, he had no contact with Mehdiyev and that they "never exchanged a single word."[24] His comments followed media reports linking him to Mehdiyev's inner circle.[24]

Similarly, former Prime Minister and diplomat Hasan Hasanov criticised Mehdiyev in remarks to the state news agency, describing him as "hypocritical," "intriguing," and "insincere" during his years in power.[25]

Opposition

Opposition leader Ali Karimli of the Popular Front Party remarked that Mehdiyev's arrest showed "no one is untouchable," no matter how long they have served.[7][24]

Mehman Aliyev, former director of the now-defunct Turan Information Agency, told Meydan TV that the charges could partly serve as a means to purge individuals within state institutions who had ties to Mehdiyev. "He brought many people into office...he had access to many structures," Aliyev said.[24] He suggested that the case against Mehdiyev might also function as a pretext for an internal restructuring or an effort to dismantle his remaining network of influence within the state apparatus.

International

  • Russia: Following the incident, the Kremlin refrained from issuing substantive comments. The tone in Russian media and among analysts, however, has varied.[8] Some commentators interpret Mehtiev's arrest as a consequence of Baku's closer alignment with the West and Turkey, arguing that Azerbaijan is distancing itself from "pro-Russian cadres."[8] Others view the development as indicative of a tacit understanding between Presidents Putin and Aliyev, suggesting that the Russian leadership may be implicitly supporting its Azerbaijani counterpart.[8]
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Causes

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Ramiz Mehdiyev, long regarded as one of Azerbaijan's most powerful political figures, served as the head of the Presidential Administration for over two decades, first under Heydar Aliyev and later under his son, Ilham Aliyev. His influence in state affairs earned him a reputation as the country's "gray cardinal," controlling much of the bureaucratic machinery from behind the scenes.[26] However, his removal from office in October 2019, amid a reshuffling that favoured figures close to First Vice President Mehriban Aliyeva, marked the beginning of a steep political decline and growing isolation from the ruling elite.[27]

Observers interpreted Mehdiyev's increasingly confrontational tone as reflecting deeper political resentment. After his ouster in 2019, his removal symbolized the shift of power from the old Soviet-era administrative elite to a newer generation aligned with Mehriban Aliyeva's camp. Many analysts suggested that Mehdiyev perceived this realignment as a betrayal of the traditional balance of power he had helped to maintain since the Heydar Aliyev era.[27]

The Wedding Controversy

Tensions between Mehdiyev and the government escalated dramatically in August 2020, when video footage emerged showing an extravagant wedding held for his granddaughter at his countryside residence in open violation of Azerbaijan's strict COVID-19 lockdown.[28] The bride's father, Ilham Aliyev (Mehdiyev's son-in-law and namesake of the president), and the groom's father, Rovshan Mustafayev, a senior commander in the State Security Service, were both detained and sentenced to 15 days in jail for violating quarantine rules.[28]

The footage, broadcast widely by state-aligned media, sparked public outrage across Azerbaijan, where citizens had endured months of pandemic restrictions. The government appeared to seize on this anger to further discredit Mehdiyev, portraying him as emblematic of the out-of-touch, corrupt old guard.[28]

In an open statement on 24 August 2020, published through the website of the National Academy of Sciences (which he then led), Mehdiyev accused the authorities of applying "double standards," claiming that numerous officials had also held private gatherings during lockdown but faced no public humiliation or arrest. He described the incident as a targeted smear campaign aimed at destroying his legacy.

The following day, Mehdiyev released a sharper statement threatening to sue MPs, journalists, and political analysts who accused him of leading a "Russian fifth column" in Azerbaijan and of obstructing President Aliyev's reform agenda during his 24-year tenure.[29]

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See also

References

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