Opinion polling and seat projections for the 2029 European Parliament election

This article lists EU-wide seat projections and popular vote estimates as well as national polls for the 2029 European Parliament election.^[1][2]

Seat projections

This table lists the seat projections for the political groups of the European Parliament. The projections can be based on an aggregation of national european election polls, national election polls and election results from all member states.

361 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority

Organisation	Release date	Ref.	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	PfE	ESN	NI	Others[a]	Lead
Der Föderalist	1 Jul 2025	[3]	51	124	44	73	181	80	99	36	20	12	57
Europe Elects	25 Jun 2025	[4]	58	130	36	78	183	81	96	35	21	2	53
Der Föderalist	22 May 2025	[5]	49	130	40	76	179	79	100	35	23	9	49
Europe Elects	25 Apr 2025	[6]	58	130	33	79	176	79	102	37	24	2	46
Europe Elects	29 Mar 2025	[7]	55	129	33	85	175	78	103	33	25	4	46
Der Föderalist	27 Mar 2025	[8]	52	131	41	73	177	79	99	33	24	11	46
Europe Elects	28 Feb 2025	[9]	54	131	34	85	174	79	104	31	24	4	43
Der Föderalist	30 Jan 2025	[10]	48	130	43	81	185	77	93	29	24	10	55
Europe Elects	25 Jan 2025	[11]	49	131	36	85	177	81	104	29	22	6	46
Europe Elects	24 Dec 2024	[12]	49	131	37	84	179	76	104	29	25	6	48
Der Föderalist	2 Dec 2024	[13]	43	131	41	83	186	73	100	27	24	12	55
Europe Elects	30 Nov 2024	[14]	53	134	36	81	183	77	100	29	24	3	49
Europe Elects	31 Oct 2024	[15]	52	137	34	82	183	76	98	28	28	2	46
Der Föderalist	7 Oct 2024	[16]	44	136	41	79	186	74	96	26	29	9	50
Europe Elects	30 Sep 2024	[17]	46	141	40	73	185	82	93	27	31	2	44
Europe Elects	31 Aug 2024	[2]	45	140	44	72	186	80	92	26	32	3	46
Der Föderalist	12 Aug 2024	[18]	44	137	45	77	191	73	88	25	31	9	54
2024 European Parliament election	6–9 June 2024	[19]	46	136	53	77	188	78	84	25	33	–	52

Popular vote projections

This table lists the vote share projection for the political groups of the European Parliament. The projections can be based on an aggregation of national european election polls, national election polls and election results from all member states.

Organisation	Release date	Ref.	The Left	S&D	G/EFA	Renew	EPP	ECR	PfE	ESN	NI	Others[b]	Lead
Europe Elects	25 Jun 2025	[20]	10.4%	17.2%	6.6%	9.9%	22.4%	11.0%	10.8%	6.4%	3.4%	1.8%	5.2%
Europe Elects	25 Apr 2025	[21]	10.3%	17.3%	6.3%	10.3%	21.5%	10.6%	11.2%	6.8%	3.7%	2%	4.2%
Europe Elects	29 Mar 2025	[22]	9.7%	17.3%	6.2%	10.7%	21.7%	10.7%	11.4%	6.3%	3.6%	2.5%	4.4%
Europe Elects	28 Feb 2025	[23]	9.3%	17.7%	6.2%	10.8%	21.9%	10.8%	11.4%	5.8%	3.3%	2.8%	4.2%
Europe Elects	25 Jan 2025	[24]	8.3%	17.6%	6.7%	10.8%	22.7%	10.9%	11.5%	5.5%	3.2%	2.8%	5.1%
Europe Elects	24 Dec 2024	[25]	8.1%	17.6%	6.9%	10.6%	23.0%	10.3%	11.5%	5.3%	3.4%	3.3%	5.4%
Europe Elects	30 Nov 2024	[14]	8.7%	18.1%	6.5%	10.2%	23.7%	10.4%	11.1%	5.2%	3.6%	2.5%	5.6%
Europe Elects	31 Oct 2024	[15]	8.5%	18.3%	6.4%	10.5%	23.4%	10.2%	10.7%	5.1%	4%	2.9%	5.1%
Europe Elects	30 Sep 2024	[17]	8.1%	18.9%	7.1%	9.4%	23.6%	9.3%	9.9%	5.2%	4.4%	3.5%	4.7%
Europe Elects	31 Aug 2024	[2]	6.7%	17.7%	6.0%	8.4%	22.8%	9.3%	9.1%	5.1%	3.9%	7.8%	5.1%
2024 European Parliament election	6–9 June 2024	[26]	6.74%	18.82%	8.88%	10.68%	20.80%	12.22%	9.36%[c]	Did not exist	9.07%	3.43%	1.98%

Notes

1. Seats for national parties that are not represented in the European Parliament and do not belong to any European party.
2. Vote share for national parties that are not represented in the European Parliament and do not belong to any European party.
3. As Identity and Democracy group in the 2024 election.