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338Canada
Canadian political commentary website From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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338Canada is a Canadian political forecasting and commentary website that was founded in 2017. The website provides projections for Canadian elections, as well as French and American presidential elections.
History
338Canada was founded by Philippe J. Fournier in 2017 as an electoral statistics and projections website.[1] In 2020 and 2024, the site produced projections for the 2020 United States presidential election and the 2024 United States presidential election.[2][3]
2025 Canadian federal election
In January 2025, the site gave the Conservative Party of Canada a >99% chance to win the 2025 Canadian federal election,[4] but this has since reversed.[5] Fournier called the 2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election a "disaster for the Liberals."[6] In April 2025, the month of the election, the projection had switched from a very likely Conservative win to a "safe" win for Mark Carney, of the Liberal Party.[7]
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Projections
The site creates federal projections, as well as projections for province-level ridings.[8] Overall, the site has a 89.7% projection rate across 17 total provincial and federal elections, with the most accurate projection being in the 2024 Nova Scotia general election.[9][10]
References
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