44th Manitoba general election

The 44th Manitoba general election will be held on or before October 5, 2027, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.

44th Manitoba general election

← 2023 On or before October 5, 2027
← outgoing members
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority
LIB Leader Wab Kinew Obby Khan Cindy Lamoureux (interim) Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since September 16, 2017 April 26, 2025 October 17, 2023 Leader's seat Fort Rouge Fort Whyte Tyndall Park Last election 34 seats, 45.63% 22 seats, 41.86% 1 seat, 10.63% Current seats 34 21 1 Seats needed 8 28
Incumbent Premier Wab Kinew New Democratic

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.^[1] As the previous election was held in 2023, the latest possible date for the election is October 5, 2027.^[2] The election will be held under first-past-the-post voting.

Current standings

43rd Manitoba Legislature – Movement in seats held up to the election (2023-present)

Party		2023	Gain/(loss) due to			Current
			Resignation or death of MLA	Removed from caucus	By-election
	New Democratic	34	(1)	(1)	2	34
	Progressive Conservative	22	(2)			20
	Liberal	1				1
	Independent	–		1		1
Total		57	(3)	–	2	56

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2023–present)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Tuxedo	May 6, 2024	Heather Stefanson	█ PC	Resignation[3]	July 8, 2024[4]	Carla Compton	█ New Democratic
Fort Garry	September 16, 2024	Mark Wasyliw	█ New Democratic	Removed from caucus[5]			█ Independent
Transcona	January 14, 2025	Nello Altomare	█ New Democratic	Died in office	March 18, 2025	Shannon Corbett	█ New Democratic
Spruce Woods	March 24, 2025	Grant Jackson	█ PC	Resigned to run federally	TBD

2023

• October 3: The 2023 Manitoba general election is held, resulting in a majority for the New Democratic Party. The Progressive Conservative Party becomes the Official Opposition, and the Liberal Party is reduced to one seat. PC leader Heather Stefanson announced her intent to resign once her successor is chosen, while she will remain as MLA for Tuxedo. Dougald Lamont resigns as Liberal leader on election night after he loses his seat of Saint Boniface.^[6]
• October 17: Cindy Lamoureux, MLA for Tyndall Park, is selected as interim leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.^[7]
• October 18: The NDP Cabinet is sworn in.^[8]

2024

• January 18: Wayne Ewasko is chosen as the interim leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, replacing outgoing leader Heather Stefanson.
• April 25: Heather Stefanson announces her intention to vacate her seat on May 6. A by-election will be held to fill the seat on June 18.
• June 18: New Democrat Carla Compton wins the Tuxedo by-election, gaining the seat from the Progressive Conservatives.
• September 16: Mark Wasyliw, MLA for Fort Garry, is removed from the NDP caucus and will sit as an independent.

2025

• January 14: Education and Early Childhood Learning Minister and MLA for Transcona Nello Altomare dies in office.
• March 18: New Democrat Shannon Corbett wins the Transcona by-election, holding the seat for the NDP.
• March 24: Progressive Conservative MLA for Spruce Woods, Grant Jackson resigns his seat to run for the federal Conservatives in Brandon—Souris.
• April 26: Obby Khan is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.

Opinion polling

Overall Polling with a local regression (LOESS) trend line for each party and a monthly average.

Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2023 election
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source	NDP	PC	Liberal	Keystone	Green	Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
Probe Research	May 28 – Jun 1, 2025	[p 1]	57%	32%	8%	2%	1%	0%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	25%
	April 26, 2025	Obby Khan is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Probe Research	Mar 4–16, 2025	[p 2]	57%	33%	8%	1%	1%	0%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	24%
Probe Research	Nov 26 – Dec 10, 2024	[p 3]	53%	34%	6%	2%	2%	2%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	19%
Probe Research	Sep 5–15, 2024	[p 4]	56%	34%	4%	3%	1%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	22%
Probe Research	May 28 – Jun 9, 2024	[p 5][p 6]	51%	38%	6%	1%	1%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	13%
Probe Research	Mar 5–18, 2024	[p 7][p 8]	49%	37%	8%	1%	2%	2%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	12%
Probe Research	Nov 22 – Dec 1, 2023	[p 9][p 10]	51%	38%	7%	1%	2%	1%	3.1%	1,000	mixed	13%
2023 general election	October 3, 2023	[p 11]	45.63%	41.86%	10.63%	0.77%	0.74%	0.37%	—	—	—	3.77%
Polling firm	Dates conducted	Source						Others	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling method	Lead
			NDP	PC	Liberal	Keystone	Green