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Central England temperature
Long-term meteorological dataset From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The Central England Temperature (CET) record is a meteorological dataset originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953 and subsequently extended and updated in 1974, following many decades of work. The monthly mean surface air temperatures, for the Midlands region of England, are given (in degrees Celsius) from the year 1659 to the present.
This record represents the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence. It is a valuable dataset for meteorologists and climate scientists. It is monthly from 1659, and a daily version has been produced from 1772. The monthly means from November 1722 onwards are given to a precision of 0.1 °C. The earliest years of the series, from 1659 to October 1722 inclusive, for the most part only have monthly means given to the nearest degree or half a degree, though there is a small 'window' of 0.1 degree precision from 1699 to 1706 inclusive. This reflects the number, accuracy, reliability and geographical spread of the temperature records that were available for the years in question.
The Central England temperature series is a composite series drawing upon multiple temperature series collected in central England, with 30 different sites used in the daily version.[1] Each of the early time series that are used in forming the Central England composite may cover only a limited timespan, and these are spliced together to form the complete record. When multiple simultaneous observations exist, a weighted average of different time series may be used to determine the composite monthly average.[2]
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Data quality
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Although best efforts have been made by Manley and subsequent researchers to quality control the series, there are data problems in the early years, with some non-instrumental data used. According to Parker et al. (1992), up to 1814 Manley’s data
are based mainly on overlapping sequences of observations from a variety of carefully chosen and documented locations. Up to 1722, available instrumental records fail to overlap, and Manley needed to use non-instrumental weather diaries, and to refer to the instrumental series for Utrecht compiled by Labrijn (1945), in order to make the monthly central England temperature (CET) series complete. Between 1723 and the 1760s there are no gaps in the composite instrumental record, but the observations generally were taken in unheated rooms rather than with a truly outdoor exposure. Manley (1952) used a few outdoor temperatures, observations of snow or sleet, and likely temperatures given the wind direction, to establish relationships between the unheated room and outdoor temperatures: these relationships were used to adjust the monthly unheated room data. Daily temperatures in unheated rooms are, however, not reliably convertible to daily outdoor values, because of the slow thermal response of the rooms. For this reason, no daily series truly representative of CET can begin before about 1770.[1]
These problems account for the lower precision to which the early monthly means were quoted by Manley. Parker et al. (1992)[1] addressed this by not using data prior to 1772, since their daily series required more accurate data than did the original series of monthly means. Before 1722, instrumental records do not overlap and Manley used a non-instrumental series from Utrecht compiled by Labrijn (1945), to make the monthly central England temperature (CET) series complete.
For a period early in the 21st century there were two versions of the series: the "official" version maintained by the Hadley Centre in Exeter, and a version that was maintained by the late Philip Eden which he argued was more consistent with the series as originally compiled by Manley.[3]
The warmest year on record was recorded in 2022, with an average temperature of 11.15 degrees Celsius. This beat the previous 2014 record by 0.2 degrees and was almost 2 degrees over the 1961-1990 average
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Trends revealed by the series
_(annual_mean,_beginning_in_1659).png)
CET and its 10-year and 30-year moving averages (orange and black traces, respectively).[4]
This stacked warming stripes graphic—technically a two-dimensional heat map—organizes CETs by month (vertically) and by year (horizontally).[5]
During the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, a cool period which coincided with cool winters and generally cool summers, the temperatures fluctuated widely but with little trend. From 1910, temperatures increased until about 1950, when they flattened before a sharp rising trend began in about 1975. The warmest decade on record is the 2010s (2011–2020) with a mean temperature of 10.40 °C (50.72 °F).[6][a]
Both the general warming trend[7] and the hottest year on record at the time, 2014,[8] have been attributed to human-caused climate change using observational and climate model-based techniques. This record was subsequently broken in 2022, when a mean CET of 11.15 °C (52.07 °F) was recorded, 1.68 °C (3.02 °F) above the 1961-90 average and breaking the 2014 record by nearly 0.2 °C (0.36 °F).
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Extremes
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Taking the 364-year period for the series as a whole:
Hottest
Coldest
Mean, maximum and minimum temperatures
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Since 1878, the Central England temperature has recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures; its daily mean records began in 1772. The tables below show the record average max/min for each season and each calendar month since 1878.
Highest minimum
Lowest minimum
Highest maximum
Lowest maximum
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Daily records
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Daily mean temperatures have been available since 1772, with max and min data available from 1878 onward.[15]
Highest mean
Highest minimum
Highest maximum
Lowest mean
Lowest minimum
Lowest maximum
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See also
Notes
References
Further reading
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