Electorate opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election

Various research and polling firms conducted opinion polling before the 2019 Australian federal election in individual electorates across Australia, in relation to voting intentions in the House of Representatives.

New South Wales

Gilmore

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				ALP	LIB	NAT	GRN	UAP	OTH	ALP	LIB
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			36.2%	29.2%	12.5%	10.0%	3.4%	8.8%	52.6%	47.8%
Mid-May 2019	YouGov Galaxy[1]	500+		—	—	—	—	—	—	52%	47%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			45.3%	39.2%	—	10.5%	—	5.0%	49.3%	50.7%

Lindsay

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	UAP	IND	OTH	LIB	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			46.5%	35.6%	4.9%	2.9%	2.9%	7.3%	55.0%	45.0%
9–11 May 2019	Newspoll[2]	500-580		44%	39%	4%	6%	—	—	52%	48%
20 Apr 2019	Newspoll[3][4]	618		41%	40%	4%	7%	—	8%	49%	51%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			39.3%	41.1%	3.6%	—	2.4%	13.7%	48.9%	51.1%

Macquarie

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	UAP	OTH	ALP	LIB
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			44.9%	38.3%	9.2%	4.0%	3.7%	50.2%	49.8%
Mid-May 2019	YouGov Galaxy[1]	500+		—	—	—	—	—	53%	47%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			38.2%	35.5%	11.2%	—	15.1%	52.2%	47.8%

Reid

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	UAP	OTH	LIB	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			48.3%	37.2%	8.1%	1.9%	4.5%	53.2%	46.8%
Mid-May 2019	YouGov Galaxy[1]	500+		—	—	—	—	—	52%	48%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			48.8%	36.3%	8.5%	—	6.4%	54.7%	45.3%

Warringah

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2CP vote
				IND	LIB	ALP	GRN	IND	UAP	OTH	IND	LIB	GRN
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			43.5%	39.0%	6.6%	6.1%	1.2%	0.7%	2.9%	57.2%	42.3%	—
9 Feb 2019 (released)	ReachTEL[a][5]	618		22.3%	37.7%	15.0%	9.6%	4.9%	—	5.7%	54.0%	46.0%	—
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			—	51.7%	14.8%	12.2%	12.1%	—	9.2%	—	61.6%	38.4%

Queensland

Flynn

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	UAP	GRN	OTH	LNP	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			37.9%	28.7%	19.6%	4.3%	3.1%	6.6%	58.7%	41.3%
Mid-May 2019	YouGov Galaxy[1]	500+		—	—	—	11%	—	—	—	—
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			37.1%	33.4%	17.2%	—	2.8%	9.6%	51.0%	49.0%

Herbert

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2PP vote
				LNP	ALP	ONP	KAP	GRN	UAP	OTH	LNP	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			37.1%	25.5%	11.1%	9.8%	7.3%	5.7%	3.5%	58.4%	41.6%
Mid-May 2019	YouGov Galaxy[1]	500+		—	—	—	—	—	14%	—	—	—
9–11 May 2019	Newspoll[2]	500-580		35%	30%	7%	13%	7%	7%	—	52%	48%
20 Apr 2019	Newspoll[3][4]	529		31%	29%	9%	10%	5%	14%	2%	50%	50%
24 Jan 2019	Newspoll[6]	509		32%	32%	9%	9%	7%	8%	3%	49%	51%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			35.5%	30.5%	13.5%	6.9%	6.3%	0.4%	7.0%	50.0%	50.0%

Victoria

Deakin

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	UAP	OTH	LIB	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			47.8%	32.5%	9.0%	2.1%	8.6%	54.8%	45.2%
Mid-May 2019	YouGov Galaxy[1]	500+		—	—	—	—	—	51%	49%
20 Apr 2019	Newspoll[3][4]	535		46%	39%	8%	5%	—	51%	49%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			50.0%	31.0%	11.7%	—	7.2%	55.7%	44.3%

Flinders

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	IND	GRN	UAP	OTH	LIB	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			49.4%	21.2%	16.8%	10.2%	1.2%	1.1%	55.7%	44.3%
24 Jan 2019	ReachTEL/uComms[6][7]	500–700		36.8%	—	—	—	—	—	49%	51%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			51.6%	27.0%	3.1%	10.7%	—	7.6%	57.8%	42.2%

Higgins

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote					2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	UAP	OTH	LIB	ALP	GRN
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			47.9%	25.4%	22.5%	1.2%	3.1%	55.7%	44.3%	—
13 May 2019 (released)	ER&C[b][8]	400		36%	30%	29%	—	—	46%	—	54%
Mid-May 2019	YouGov Galaxy[1]	500+		—	—	29%	—	—	52%	—	48%
24 Jan 2019	ReachTEL/uComms[7]	500–700		—	—	—	—	—	48%	52%	—
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			52.0%	15.0%	25.3%	—	7.7%	58.0%	—	42.0%

Kooyong

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote						2CP vote
				LIB	GRN	ALP	IND	UAP	OTH	LIB	GRN	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			49.4%	21.2%	16.8%	10.2%	1.2%	1.1%	55.7%	44.3%	—
13 May 2019 (released)	ER&C[b][9]	1,741		41%	21%	16%	9%	—	8%	52%	48%	—
11 Dec 2018	ReachTEL[c][10][11]	816		40%	16%	29%	—	—	8%	48%	—	52%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			58.2%	18.9%	19.8%	3.1%	—	—	63.3%	—	36.7%

Western Australia

Pearce

Date	Firm	Sample size	Margin of error	Primary vote							2PP vote
				LIB	ALP	GRN	ONP	UAP	NAT	OTH	LIB	ALP
18 May 2019	2019 federal election			43.7%	29.1%	8.7%	8.2%	2.5%	1.3%	6.5%	54.8%	45.2%
20 Apr 2019	Newspoll[3][4]	509		40%	36%	8%	6%	8%	—	—	50%	50%
2 Jul 2016	2016 federal election			45.4%	34.3%	11.0%	—	—	4.7%	4.7%	53.6%	46.4%

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2019 Australian federal election

Notes

1. Commissioned by GetUp
2. Commissioned by the Greens
3. Commissioned by the Construction, Forestry, Mining, Maritime and Energy Union