2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Senator Russ Feingold won re-election to a third term with more than 55% of the vote against Republican Tim Michels, even as Democrat John Kerry won the state in the concurrent presidential race with just 49.7% of the vote and by only a 0.38% margin. To date, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 3 Senate seat from Wisconsin. Michels later ran unsuccessfully for Governor of Wisconsin in 2022.

2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

← 1998 November 2, 2004 2010 →

Nominee Russ Feingold Tim Michels Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,632,697 1,301,183 Percentage 55.35% 44.11%

County results Precinct results Feingold:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Michels:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:

U.S. senator before election Russ Feingold Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Russ Feingold Democratic

Candidates

Democratic

• Russ Feingold, incumbent U.S. Senator^[1]

Democratic primary results^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Russ Feingold	251,915	99.66%
	Democratic	Scattering	862	0.34%
Total votes			252,777	100.00%

Republican

• Russ Darrow^[3]
• Robert Gerald Lorge^[3]
• Tim Michels, businessman and army veteran^[1]
• Robert Welch, State Senator

Republican Primary results^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tim Michels	183,654	42.43%
	Republican	Russ Darrow	130,088	30.05%
	Republican	Robert Welch	99,971	23.09%
	Republican	Robert Gerald Lorge	18,809	4.35%
	Republican	Scattering	350	0.08%
Total votes			432,872	100.0%

Minor candidates

Libertarian

• Arif Khan, entrepreneur^[4]

Independent

• Eugene Hem, perennial candidate and former educator^[5]

General election

Campaign

Michels insisted he had more real world experience than Feingold, someone he called an "extreme liberal" who was out of touch with Wisconsin voters.^[6] Feingold attacked back by saying that any Republican would be a rubber stamp for President Bush. The incumbent had $2.2 million in the bank, while Michels had already spent $1 million in the primary and had only about $150,000 left.^[7]

During both the primary and general election campaigns, Michels ran a series of ads attacking Feingold for his status as the sole senator to oppose the 2001 Patriot Act. One of his earliest ads during the primary accused Feingold of putting "his liberal ideology before our safety", while another primary spot featured footage of the September 11 Attacks and a voice-over saying that "our leaders passed new laws to keep us safe. But Russ Feingold voted against those laws."^[8] After easily winning the Republican primary against three opponents, Michel released two more anti-Feingold spots focusing on the Patriot Act. One of the ads showed further footage of the September 11 attacks, while another depicted a Middle Eastern spy photographing a Wisconsin nuclear power plant before Michels appears on-screen and announces that "Unlike Russ Feingold, I will support renewing the PATRIOT Act, because we need to be able to track and stop terrorists before they strike again."^[8] Michels reported that one-fifth of his campaign's advertising budget was devoted to making and airing the spots.^[8]

In October, based on a belief that Feingold was vulnerable due in part to his vote on the Patriot Act, the NRSC pledged $600,000 in support of the Michel campaign. However, after the Michel commercials generated negative attention and Feingold continued to lead comfortably in most polls, the party rescinded their financial assistance.^[9] On October 1, a poll showed Feingold leading 52% to 39%.^[10] In mid October, another poll showed Feingold winning 48% to 43%. A poll at the end of the month showed him leading 51% to 36%.^[11]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12]	Safe D	November 1, 2004

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[13]	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Tim Michels (R)	Arif Khan (L)	Undecided
Zogby International[14]	October 27–30, 2004	601 (LV)	± 4.1%	57%	37%		6%
Tarrance Group (R)[15]	October 29, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	48%	43%		9%
Zogby International[16]	October 26–29, 2004	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	57%	37%		6%
Tarrance Group (R)[15]	October 28, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	49%	41%		10%
Zogby International[17]	October 25–28, 2004	601 (LV)	± 4.1%	57%	37%		6%
Tarrance Group (R)[15]	October 27, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	51%	41%		8%
Zogby International[18]	October 24–27, 2004	601 (LV)	± 4.1%	59%	36%		5%
University of Wisconsin[19]	October 23–27, 2004	545 (V)	± 4%	51%	36%		13%
Tarrance Group (R)[15]	October 26, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	52%	39%		9%
Zogby International[20]	October 23–26, 2004	601 (LV)	± 4.1%	57%	38%		5%
Tarrance Group (R)[15]	October 25, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	52%	40%		8%
Zogby International[21]	October 22–25, 2004	601 (LV)	± 4.1%	54%	41%		5%
Zogby International[22]	October 21–24, 2004	601 (LV)	± 4.1%	54%	42%		4%
Rasmussen Reports[23]	October 14, 2004	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	53%	43%	2%	2%
St. Norbert College[24]	October 4–13, 2004	401 (LV)	± 5%	56%	33%		11%
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV[25]	October 2004			57%	33%		10%
Harris Interactive[26]	September 22–26, 2004	562 (V)	± 4%	52%	39%		9%
University of Wisconsin[27]	September 15–21, 2004	485 (LV)	± 4.5%	53%	38%		9%
ABC News[28]	September 16–19, 2004	775 (LV)	± 3.5%	51%	45%		4%
University of Wisconsin[29]	June 15–23, 2004	504 (V)	± 4%	36%	12%		52%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[13]	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Russ Darrow (R)	Undecided
University of Wisconsin[29]	June 15–23, 2004	504 (V)	± 4%	40%	16%	44%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[13]	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Robert Welch (R)	Undecided
University of Wisconsin[29]	June 15–23, 2004	504 (V)	± 4%	36%	10%	54%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[13]	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Robert Gerald Lorge (R)	Undecided
University of Wisconsin[29]	June 15–23, 2004	504 (V)	± 4%	39%	10%	51%

Hypothetical polling

Results

General election results^[30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Russ Feingold (incumbent)	1,632,697	55.35%
	Republican	Tim Michels	1,301,183	44.11%
	Libertarian	Arif Khan	8,367	0.28%
	Independent	Eugene A. Hem	6,662	0.23%
	Write-in		834	0.03%
Total votes			2,949,743	100.00%
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped Republican to Democratic

• Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
• Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
• Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
• Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
• Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
• Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
• Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
• Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
• Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
• Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
• Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
• Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
• Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
• Lafayette (largest city: Darlington)
• Pepin (largest city: Durand)
• Racine (largest city: Racine)
• Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
• Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
• Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
• Polk (Largest city: Amery)
• St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
• Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
• Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
• Grant (largest city: Platteville)
• Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
• Wood (largest city: Marshfield)
• Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Florence (Largest city: Florence)

See also

• 2004 United States Senate elections