2011 Extremaduran regional election

The 2011 Extremaduran regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th Assembly of the autonomous community of Extremadura. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2011 Extremaduran regional election

← 2007 22 May 2011 2015 →
All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura 33 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	906,551 1.5%
Turnout	676,768 (74.7%) 0.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader José Antonio Monago Guillermo Fernández Vara Pedro Escobar Party PP–EU PSOE–r IU–SIEx Leader since 8 November 2008 20 September 2006 30 September 2007 Leader's seat Badajoz Badajoz Badajoz Last election 27 seats, 38.7% 38 seats, 53.0% 0 seats, 4.5% Seats won 32 30 3 Seat change 5 8 3 Popular vote 307,975 290,045 38,157 Percentage 46.1% 43.4% 5.7% Swing 7.4 pp 9.6 pp 1.2 pp
Constituency results map for the Assembly of Extremadura
President before election Guillermo Fernández Vara PSOE Elected President José Antonio Monago PP

For the first time since 1983, the People's Party (PP) was able to win a regional election, obtaining its best historical result, with 46.1% of the share and 32 seats. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), which had formed the government of the Extremaduran region since 1983, achieving an absolute majority of seats at every election except in 1995, was ousted from power in the worst result obtained by the party until that time.^[1]

However, as the PP stood one seat short of an overall majority, the possibility arose of PSOE pact with United Left (IU), which had re-entered the Assembly after a four-year absence, in order to maintain the regional government.^[2] However, IU declined to support outgoing Socialist Guillermo Fernández Vara after a 24-year PSOE rule over the region, opting to abstain in the investiture voting and allowing the most-voted candidate to be elected. As a result of the PP having more seats than the PSOE, party candidate José Antonio Monago became the first not-Socialist democratically elected President of the region.^[3]

Overview

Under the 2011 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Extremadura is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[4]

Electoral system

Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote.^[5][6][7] Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Extremadurans abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[8][9]

The Assembly of Extremadura was entitled to a maximum of 65 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at that number. All members were elected in two multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies were also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both districts and reached five percent regionally.^[5][10]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency was entitled the following seats:^[11]

Seats	Constituencies
36	Badajoz
29	Cáceres

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.^[12][13]

Election date

After legal amendments earlier in 2011, fixed-term mandates were abolished, instead allowing the term of the Assembly of Extremadura to expire after an early dissolution. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication.^[4][14][15] The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 27 May 2011. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 3 May 2011, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 26 June 2011.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one.^[14][16] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[17]

The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially called on 29 March 2011 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), setting the election date for 22 May.^[11]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Assembly at the time of the election call.^[18][19]

Parliamentary composition in March 2011

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	38	38
	People's–United Extremadura Parliamentary Group		PP	26	27
			EU	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[20][21] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the lists of candidates, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.^[22]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE–r	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) Extremaduran Coalition (PREx–CREx) – Extremaduran Regionalist Party (PREx) – Regionalist Convergence of Extremadura (CREx)		Guillermo Fernández Vara	Social democracy	53.0%	38		[23] [24]
	PP–EU	List People's Party (PP) United Extremadura (EU)		José Antonio Monago	Conservatism Christian democracy	38.7%	27		[25] [26]
	IU–SIEx	List United Left (IU) – Communist Party of Extremadura (PCEx) – Revolutionary Workers' Party (POR) – Republican Left (IR) Independent Socialists of Extremadura (SIEx)		Pedro Escobar	Socialism Communism	4.5%	0		[27] [28]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout					Lead
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—	74.7	43.4 30	46.1 32	5.7 3	1.1 0	2.7
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1]	9–11 May 2011	500	?	43.6 30/31	48.7 32/34	4.6 0/3	–	5.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 2][p 3]	3–10 May 2011	?	?	46.8 31/32	44.9 31/32	? 2	–	1.9
TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 4][p 5]	4–5 May 2011	750	?	43.3 30/31	46.8 33/34	4.5 1	–	3.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 6][p 7]	25 Apr 2011	?	?	47.1 32/34	44.6 31/32	? 0/1	–	2.5
Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 8]	13–20 Apr 2011	600	?	44.6 30	46.6 32	6.8 3	–	2.0
CIS[p 9][p 10]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,200	?	45.3 31	44.8 32	4.8 2	1.6 0	0.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 11]	11–14 Apr 2011	500	?	43.8 30/31	48.4 32/34	4.9 0/3	–	4.6
Ikerfel/Vocento[p 12][p 13][p 14]	4–10 Apr 2011	1,200	?	44.4 30/31	45.3 31/32	5.6 2/3	–	0.9
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 15][p 16]	28 Mar–1 Apr 2011	500	?	46.8 32/33	44.4 31/32	4.6 1/2	–	2.4
GESPA/PP[p 17]	10–14 Jan 2011	1,200	?	44.7 31/32	45.8 33	4.9 0/1	–	1.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 18][p 19]	30 Dec–3 Jan 2011	?	?	48.1 32/34	43.6 30/31	? 1/2	–	4.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 20]	28–29 Dec 2010	500	?	45.6 32	45.5 31/33	4.9 0/2	–	0.1
Sigma Dos/Hoy[p 21]	23–27 Dec 2010	1,000	?	45.7 30/32	45.1 31/32	5.3 2/3	–	0.6
Q Índice/PSOE[p 22]	14–18 Jun 2010	702	?	49.0 33/35	43.0 29/30	4.5 1/2	–	6.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 23]	25–27 May 2010	500	?	44.4 30/32	48.8 33/35	4.0 0	–	4.4
GESPA/PP[p 24]	15–30 Mar 2010	1,200	?	46.6 33	44.9 32	4.4 0	–	1.7
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 25]	15–18 Mar 2010	799	?	48.1 33	44.4 31	4.6 1	–	3.7
Sigma Dos/Hoy[p 26]	12–19 Feb 2010	1,200	?	48.0 33/35	43.8 30/32	4.2 0	–	4.2
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	—	50.6	48.6 (34)	44.1 (31)	2.5 (0)	1.9 (0)	4.5
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008	—	78.5	52.3 (37)	41.8 (28)	2.9 (0)	0.8 (0)	10.5
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	—	75.0	53.0 38	38.7 27	4.5 0	–	14.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					?	N	Lead
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—	32.7	34.7	4.2	0.8	—	23.8	2.0
CIS[p 9]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,200	34.0	29.9	3.6	1.0	24.1	4.2	4.1
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 15]	28 Mar–1 Apr 2011	500	31.6	30.7	2.6	0.7	–	–	0.9
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 25]	15–18 Mar 2010	799	29.9	27.0	2.4	0.6	–	–	2.9
2009 EP election	7 Jun 2009	—	24.7	22.6	1.3	1.0	—	48.6	2.1
2008 general election	9 Mar 2008	—	41.3	33.2	2.3	0.6	—	20.3	8.1
2007 regional election	27 May 2007	—	39.9	29.3	3.4	–	—	23.9	10.6

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 9]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,200	41.2	35.4	3.6	1.3	3.9	14.7	5.8
GESPA/PP[p 17]	10–14 Jan 2011	1,200	34.4	32.2	2.1	0.7	0.4	30.1	2.2

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 9]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,200	52.4	24.5	0.0	0.0	0.2	22.9	27.9
GESPA/PP[p 17]	10–14 Jan 2011	1,200	46.8	25.7	0.2	–	–	27.3	21.1

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size					Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			F. Vara PSOE	Monago PP	Escobar IU	García-Borruel UPyD
CIS[p 9]	17 Mar–17 Apr 2011	1,200	44.6	30.1	2.5	1.2	1.6	20.1	14.5
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 15]	28 Mar–1 Apr 2011	500	46.5	30.9	–	–	22.6		15.6
GESPA/PP[p 17]	10–14 Jan 2011	1,200	35.3	28.2	3.9	–	5.9	23.2	7.1
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 25]	15–18 Mar 2010	799	40.8	22.0	–	–	37.2		18.8

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			F. Vara PSOE	Monago PP
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 15]	28 Mar–1 Apr 2011	500	57.7	23.3	19.0		34.4
Obradoiro de Socioloxía/Público[p 25]	15–18 Mar 2010	799	58.1	9.1	32.8		49.0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 22 May 2011 Assembly of Extremadura election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party–United Extremadura (PP–EU)	307,975	46.13	+7.42	32	+5
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party–Regionalists (PSOE–regionalistas)	290,045	43.45	−9.55	30	−8
	United Left–Independent Socialists of Extremadura (IU–SIEx)	38,157	5.72	+1.20	3	+3
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	7,058	1.06	New	0	±0
	Independents for Extremadura (IPEx)	4,659	0.70	−0.56	0	±0
	Ecolo–The Greens (Ecolo–LV)1	3,887	0.58	−0.03	0	±0
	Extremaduran People's Union (UPEx)	2,185	0.33	+0.10	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	1,573	0.24	New	0	±0
	Convergence for Extremadura (CEx)	1,056	0.16	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	836	0.13	−0.01	0	±0
	Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB)	774	0.12	+0.04	0	±0
Blank ballots		9,394	1.41	+0.22
Total		667,599			65	±0
Valid votes		667,599	98.65	−0.62
Invalid votes		9,169	1.35	+0.62
Votes cast / turnout		676,768	74.65	−0.30
Abstentions		229,783	25.35	+0.30
Registered voters		906,551
Sources[18][29]
Footnotes: 1 Ecolo–The Greens results are compared to The Greens of Extremadura totals in the 2007 election.

Popular vote PP–EU   46.13% PSOE–r   43.45% IU–SIEx   5.72% UPyD   1.06% Others   2.24% Blank ballots   1.41%

Seats PP–EU   49.23% PSOE–r   46.15% IU–SIEx   4.62%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP–EU		PSOE–r		IU–SIEx
	%	S	%	S	%	S
Badajoz	45.0	17	44.7	17	6.2	2
Cáceres	47.9	15	41.4	13	5.0	1
Total	46.1	32	43.4	30	5.7	3
Sources[18][29]

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture José Antonio Monago (PP)
Ballot →		5 July 2011	7 July 2011
Required majority →		33 out of 65 N	Simple Y
	Yes • PP–EU (32)	32 / 65	32 / 65
	No • PSOE–r (30)	30 / 65	30 / 65
	Abstentions • IU–SIEx (3)	3 / 65	3 / 65
	Absentees	0 / 65	0 / 65
Sources[18]

2014 motion of no confidence

Motion of no confidence Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE)
Ballot →		14 May 2014
Required majority →		33 out of 65 N
	Yes • PSOE (28) • PREx–CREx (2)	30 / 65
	No • PP–EU (32)	32 / 65
	Abstentions • IU (3)	3 / 65
	Absentees	0 / 65
Sources[18]