Future-oriented technology analysis

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.^[1]^[2] It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.^[1]^[3]

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.^[4]^[5]

Year	Definition
2004	Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."^[6]
2013	Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."^[7]

Method	Family
Agent based modeling	Modeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy process	Valuing/decision/economic
Backcasting	Descriptive and matrices
Bibliometrics	Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics
Brainstorming	Creativity
Cross impact analysis	Modeling and simulation, Statistics
Delphi	Expert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analyses	Valuing/decision/economic
Relevance tree	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysis	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Roadmapping	Descriptive and matrices
Scenarios	Scenarios
Social impact assessment	Descriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysis	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysis	Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamics	Modeling and simulation
Technology assessment	Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZ	Creativity

Definitions