Iran–United States relations during the second Trump administration

Iran–United States relations



Iran	United States

Diplomatic mission
Interests Section in the Pakistani Embassy, Washington, D.C.	Interests Section in the Swiss Embassy, Tehran
Envoy
Director of the Interest Section Mehdi Atefat	United States Special Representative for Iran Abram Paley

By early 2025, Iran's regional influence significantly declined, after setbacks among its proxies and allies. Its proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis—suffered major setbacks following the October 7 Hamas-led attack on Israel and the subsequent conflicts. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria critically disrupted Iranian supply routes, severely impacting Hamas and Hezbollah.^[1] Russia, Iran's key ally, struggled to provide support as its prolonged war in Ukraine drained resources, further weakening the regional influence of the Iran-led axis.^[2]

During Trump's first term (2017–2021), the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and imposed maximum-pressure sanctions, severely restricting Iran's oil exports and financial access. His administration sought to renegotiate the deal to impose stricter limits on Iran's nuclear program and curb its funding of regional proxies but failed to reach a new agreement.^[3] Under Biden (2021–2025), Iran's economy remained strained, though sanctions enforcement fluctuated. By early 2025, inflation soared, the currency collapsed, and domestic unrest intensified as Iran faced economic isolation while advancing its nuclear program.^[4]

Iran's uniquely weakened position now presents a rare opportunity for the United States to reshape the region. During his first term, Trump abandoned the JCPOA in hopes of forging a tougher deal that would impose stricter limits on Iran's nuclear program and its proxy funding—a move that ultimately failed. Many analysts argue that had the original deal remained intact, it could have paved the way for regional stability and a structured U.S. withdrawal, reducing America's long-term military footprint.^[5]^[6] Now, with his second term just beginning, the stakes are high. If decisive steps are taken to secure a new comprehensive agreement, Iran's ambitions could be reined in, fostering stability and paving the way for an orderly exit of American forces. Conversely, without such bold action, there is a significant risk that U.S. troops could remain entrenched in the Middle East for decades to come.^[7]

Elon Musk met with Iran's UN Ambassador, Saeid Iravani, on November 11, 2024.^[8]^[9] In January 2025, Elon Musk reportedly helped Italy's prime minister Giorgia Meloni secure the release of Italian citizen Cecila Sala from an Iranian prison.^[10]

Maximum pressure campaign

In February 2025, President Donald Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum^[11] reinstating the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aiming to compel Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement while preventing its development of nuclear weapons and countering its regional influence. The memorandum mandates heightened economic sanctions targeting Iran's oil exports, with the objective of reducing them to zero, and directs the revocation of existing sanctions waivers. Trump stated he would rather make a deal than take military action against Iran,^[12] framing the pressure campaign as a means to force diplomacy. This policy has led to significant economic challenges within Iran, including a sharp currency depreciation and political instability, as evidenced by the resignation of key officials such as Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif and the impeachment of Economy Minister Abdolnaser Hemmati.^[13] While proponents argue that these measures are necessary to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions and support for militant groups, critics contend that the campaign exacerbates humanitarian issues and regional tensions without effectively altering Iran's strategic behavior.

In March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that he sent a letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urging negotiations for a new nuclear agreement to replace the 2015 deal from which he withdrew in 2018. Emphasizing a preference for diplomacy, Trump warned of potential military action should negotiations fail.^[14]^[15] Iran officially responded to Trump's letter via Oman on March 26, rejecting direct talks under pressure but leaving the door open to indirect negotiations.^[16] Days later the U.S. deployed four B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to Diego Garcia—over 20% of the total B-2 fleet. Though officially aimed at deterring Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, some analysts suggest the scale and capabilities of the deployment point to preparations for a potential strike on hardened Iranian nuclear targets like Fordow or Natanz, possibly in coordination with Israel.^[17] On March 30, President Trump escalated pressure by threatening bombing “the likes of which [Iran has] never seen” and warning of secondary tariffs. The deployment and rhetoric are widely seen as part of a calculated pressure campaign to force Tehran back to the table, as Iran's uranium enrichment levels continue to exceed the limits set by the original 2015 accord.^[18]

On April 25, 2025, Trump said he would not let Netanyahu drag him into a war with Iran and was interested in meeting with Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but threatened a joint Israeli-US military operation to thwart Iran's nuclear program if diplomacy failed.^[19]

Iran–backed Houthis in Yemen

On March 15, 2025, the U.S. launched airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen to counter attacks on Red Sea shipping. President Trump stated the strikes aimed to restore navigation freedom and deter further aggression. The Houthi-run health ministry reported 31 deaths and over 100 injuries. The Iran-backed group vowed to continue targeting vessels until Israel lifted its Gaza blockade. Trump warned of further action, urging Iran to withdraw support.^[20]

In March 2025, the Trump administration accidentally included The Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg in a Signal group chat discussing classified military plans to strike Houthi targets in Yemen. The chat involved top officials including Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The leak, dubbed “Signalgate,” sparked bipartisan outrage and serious concerns over national security and operational discipline. President Trump dismissed the incident as a minor error, but critics called it a major intelligence failure.^[21]

Iran–Israel war

In March 2025, US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, testified that the US intelligence community, "continues to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized a nuclear weapons program".^[22] In April 2025, Trump announced negotiations between the US and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear program. The White House declared that Iran had two months to secure a deal, which expired the day before Israel's strikes.^[23]

On June 13, 2025, President Trump praised the Israeli strikes on Iran as "excellent" and "very successful,"^[24] and warned that Iran must "make a deal now" over its nuclear program or face "even more destructive and deadly military action."^[25] Trump authorized US forces to assist in intercepting the initial Iranian missile barrage. The US warned Iran against attacking American interests or personnel, emphasizing it would respond militarily if such attacks occurred.^[26] On June 17, Trump stated that a "real end" was better than a ceasefire.^[27] He then demanded unconditional surrender by Iran.^[28] Trump also threatened Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei saying that he is an "easy target" and could assassinate him at any moment. The threat came two days after it was reported that Trump allegedly vetoed a plan by Israel to assassinate the ayatollah.^[29] Some supporters of Trump in the United States have criticized Trump's support for Israeli strikes against Iran,^[30] and the possible involvement of the United States in the war.^[31] In a poll of Trump voters, 53% said the U.S. should not get involved in the Iran–Israel conflict.^[32]

On June 19, 2025, the White House said that Trump would decide "within two weeks" whether to join Israel's war against Iran.^[33] Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have spoken by phone several times since the start of the Israeli strikes on Iran.^[34]