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Manifold (prediction market)

Online reputation-based prediction market From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Manifold (prediction market)
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Manifold, formerly known as Manifold Markets, is an online prediction market platform.[1][2] Users engage in competitive forecasting using play money called 'Mana'.[3] Topics on Manifold have included the 2024 United States presidential election and the Oscars.[4]

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Manifold used to support real money betting using 'sweepcash', but this was sunset on March 28 2025.[5]

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History

Manifold was founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett. James Grugett is the current CEO of the organization.[6]

Manifold received seed funding from the Astral Codex Ten grant program.[7] It has since received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund,[8] and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund.[9]

In September 2023, Manifold hosted Manifest, a forecasting conference, in Berkeley, California. Attendees included Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Richard Hanania, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robert Miles, and Destiny.[7] The conference was hosted again in 2024 and 2025.[10]

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Market structure

The website uses a play money currency called Mana. Markets use a version of the Uniswap automated market maker, known as "maniswap".[11] Formerly, Manifold supported Sweepcash which could be redeemed for real world money for a 5% fee, or cashed out to a charity of the user's choice for no fee.[12] One unit of Sweepcash was equivalent to $1 USD.

See also

References

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