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Opinion polling for the 2022 Italian general election

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In the years running up to the 2022 Italian general election, held on 25 September, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in Italy. Results of such polls are given in this article. The date range is from after the 2018 Italian general election, held on 4 March, to 9 September 2022. Poll results are reported at the dates when the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication; if such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. Under the Italian par condicio (equal conditions) law, publication of opinion polls is forbidden in the last two weeks of an electoral campaign.[1][2]

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Polling aggregation

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Polling aggregations are performed by taking weighted or unweighted averages of election polls. They are all from 2022.

Party vote
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Coalition vote
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Seat projections (Chamber of Deputies)
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Seat projections (Senate of the Republic)
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Party vote

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Parties or lists are ordered according to their share of the vote in 2018. Power to the People and Us with Italy remain active but have been rarely polled after 2019. New parties and lists like Green Europe, We Are Europeans/Action, Cambiamo!, Italia Viva, Italexit, Coraggio Italia, and Together for the Future/Civic Commitment are ordered by foundation date. From May–December 2021, Coraggio Italia replaced Cambiamo! From January–August 2022, most pollers listed together Action and More Europe by their own request.

Starting from the beginning of 2019, some agencies polled Free and Equal (LeU), others The Left (LS), and some others both. The two lists, LeU for the 2018 Italian general election and LS for the 2019 European Parliament election in Italy, have slightly different but partially overlapping compositions: the former included Article One (Art.1), the latter had the Communist Refoundation Party, which was part of Power to the People in 2018, and both included Italian Left (SI). Since May 2021, most pollsters started to give data separately for Art.1 and SI. Starting in late April 2022, Art.1 was sometimes included within the Democratic Party's polling numbers. By August 2022, Art.1 joined the Democratic Party – Democratic and Progressive Italy alliance, while SI formed the Greens and Left Alliance list with Green Europe; both lists are part of the centre-left coalition.

Graphical summary

Thumb
Local regression trend line of poll results from 4 March 2018 to 27 July 2022. Each line corresponds to a political party.
Thumb
Local regression trend line of poll results from 4 March 2018 to 9 September 2022. Each line corresponds to the 2022 general election party lists.

2022

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2021

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2020

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2019

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2018

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Coalition vote

2022

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Seat projections

Chamber of Deputies

  • 400 seats are available; 201 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls, only the 392 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 8 abroad constituencies are omitted.
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Senate of the Republic

  • 200 seats are available, plus 6 senators for life; 104 seats are needed for a majority.
  • In some polls, only the 196 constituencies in Italy proper are allocated, while the 4 abroad constituencies are omitted.
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Subnational polls

Abruzzo

Abruzzo 01

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Apulia

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Calabria

Calabria 01

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Campania

Senate of the Republic

Campania 04: Naples
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Lombardy

Senate of the Republic

Lombardy 03: Milan
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Liguria

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Tuscany

Chamber of the Deputies

Tuscany 06: Prato
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Veneto

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See also

Notes

  1. For some polls, they show the arithmetic sum of the Democratic Party – Democratic and Progressive Italy (PD–IDP) alliance.
  2. For some polls, they show the arithmetic sum of the Action – Italia Viva (A–IV) alliance.
  3. For some polls, they show the arithmetic sum of Us with ItalyItaly in the Centre (NcI–IaC) and Coraggio ItaliaUnion of the Centre (CI–UdC).
  4. Polls before 1 August 2022 refer to it as Together for the Future (IpF).
  5. Polls before 21 November 2019 refer to it as We Are Europeans (SE).
  6. In the 2018 Italian general election, Power to the People (PaP) was a joint list including the Communist Refoundation Party (PRC) and the Italian Communist Party (PCI), which left the alliance a few months later. Some polls included these two parties within PaP and/or Popular Coalition (CP).
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References

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