Opinion polling for the 2023 Guatemalan general election

In the run up to the Guatemalan general election scheduled to take place on 25 June 2023, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Guatemala. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's color. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded.

First round

Graphical summary

Local regression of all polls conducted.

Official campaign polling

The table below contains polls conducted after the official start of the campaign period in March 2023.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Arévalo Semilla	Castillo VIVA	Conde Vamos	Mulet Cabal	Pineda PC	Ríos Valor–PU	Rivera Victory	Torres UNE	Villacorta VOS	Others	No one
2023 general election	25 June 2023	—	15.5%	9.4%	10.4%	8.8%	—	8.7%	3.3%	21.1%	5.6%	17.2%	—
Carlos Pineda[1]	21 Jun 2023	—	6.7%	4.4%	4.5%	17.9%	—	16.1%	2.4%	16.6%	13.8%	14.3%[a]	3.4%
Espacio Muestral[2]	16–19 Jun 2023	1,200	—	—	—	15.5%	—	19.1%	—	17.8%	11.4%	36.2%
C&E Research[3]	13 Jun 2023	400	—	1.0%	—	21.0%	—	22.0%	1.0%	23.0%	9.0%	23.0%	—
Grupo Impacto 360[4]	9–12 Jun 2023	900	—	—	—	16.8%	—	25.5%	—	21.5%	—	17.3%	18.9%
Prodatos / Prensa Libre[5]	5–14 Jun 2023	1,202	2.9%	5.2%	5.8%	13.4%	—	9.1%	5.3%	21.3%	5.2%	18.3%[b]	13.5%
ConDatos[6]	Jun 2023	840	6.8%	4.3%	5.5%	13.6%	—	11.1%	5.0%	13.9%	11.3%	19.1%[c]	9.4%
TResearch International[7]	31 May–6 Jun 2023	1,004	—	—	8.3%	16.0%	—	19.8%	—	19.2%	1.4%	19.2%	—
			4.6%	2.1%	2.5%	11.9%	14.7%	17.3%	1.6%	15.9%	—	22.1%[d]	7.6%
19 May 2023			Carlos Pineda's candidacy was suspended by the courts[8][9]
Grupo Impacto 360[10]	17–20 May 2023	900	—	—	—	14.6%	20.1%	22.9%	—	17.9%	—	13.2%	11.3%
Innovem / La Voz de Xela[11]	16–21 May 2023	8,176	0.7%	0.4%	2.9%	8.0%	16.5%	10.0%	1.2%	20.0%	1.5%	7.5%[e]	31.3%
CID Gallup / Con Criterio[12]	10–20 May 2023	1,204	—	2.0%	4.0%	14.0%	22.0%	16.0%	2.0%	20.0%	2.0%	11.0%	7.0%
			—	2.0%	4.0%	21.0%	—	19.0%	2.0%	23.0%	2.0%	12.0%	16.0%
TResearch International[13]	3–9 May 2023	1,000	—	—	2.3%	16.3%	20.9%	19.6%	—	17.4%	4.1%	12.3%	7.1%
Massive Caller[14]	May 2023	1,000	—	—	3.8%	13.5%	19.8%	8.6%	—	5.2%	—	17.2%	31.9%
TResearch International[15]	26 Apr–2 May 2023	1,000	—	—	3.4%	17.5%	18.0%	19.2%	—	18.4%	4.0%	13.7%	5.7%
Nuestro Diario[16]	19–26 Apr 2023	1,723	2.0%	—	2.4%	10.4%	28.3%	10.0%	3.3%	10.3%	4.7%	19.0%	11.6%
C&E Research[17]	16–22 Apr 2023	2,400	—	1.6%	3.4%	11.1%	9.5%	14.3%	1.0%	16.5%	—	8.8%[f]	33.2%
			1.0%	0.9%	4.6%	11.5%	9.5%	13.5%	1.7%	17.5%	—	15.0%[g]	24.8%
Prodatos / Prensa Libre[18]	14–23 Apr 2023	1,202	0.7%	1.8%	5.0%	10.1%	23.1%	9.2%	3.4%	19.5%	3.1%	17.8%[h]	6.3%
TResearch International[19]	17 Apr 2023	—	—	—	4.5%	19.1%	10.2%	22.1%	—	17.8%	3.9%	15.2%	7.2%
Massive Caller[20]	Apr 2023	1,000	—	—	3.2%	14.1%	11.3%	13.5%	—	6.9%	—	15.8%	35.2%
TResearch International[21]	8–12 Mar 2023	1,000	—	—	4.7%	16.5%	8.2%	23.2%	—	17.7%	4.9%	13.4%	11.4%

Sub-national polling

Quetzaltenango

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Clavería My Family	Conde Vamos	Mulet Cabal	Ríos Valor–PU	Torres UNE	Villacorta VOS	Others	No one
Innovem / La Voz de Xela[11]	16–21 May 2023	—	9.6%	7.2%	12.1%	15.7%	20.5%	7.2%	27.7%[i]	—

Pre-campaign polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Arzú Podemos	Cabrera MLP	Mulet Cabal	Torres UNE	Ríos Valor–PU	Others	No one
Massive Caller[22]	10 March 2023	1,000	—	—	13.5%	8.9%	14.3%	28.8%[j]	34.5%
CID Gallup[23]	24 Jan–4 Feb 2023	1,200	13%	7%	10%	20%	21%	15%[k]	14%
Massive Caller[24]	Feb 2023	1,000	4.8%	10.5%	13.6%	7.5%	14.6%	13.4%	35.6%
Massive Caller[25]	7 Jan 2023	1,000	6.2%	11.3%	13.4%	7.0%	14.4%	13.4%[l]	34.3%
Massive Caller[26]	Dec 2022	1,000	3.6%	8.8%	14.5%	6.0%	13.1%	16.2%[m]	37.8%
CID Gallup[27]	Dec 2022	–	9%	5%	4%	14%	16%	12%	40%
Massive Caller[28]	Nov 2022	1,000	4.6%	7.1%	15.7%	5.4%	14.1%	17.3%[n]	34.3%
CID Gallup / Con Criterio[29]	9 Oct 2022	1,202	8.0%	6.0%	11.0%	14.0%	22.0%	21.0%[o]	18.0%
Massive Caller[30]	9 Oct 2022	1,000	5.1%	9.2%	14.1%	5.8%	15.5%	12.0%[p]	38.3%
C&E Research[31]	28 Sep 2022	600	15.0%	14.0%	11.0%	21.0%	32.0%	7.0%[q]	N/A
Massive Caller[32]	Sep 2022	1,000	4.8%	11.4%	13.3%	5.6%	14.9%	12.8%[r]	37.2%
J. Napolitan y Asociados[33]	5–9 Sep 2022	1,800	11.2%	5.2%	6.5%	14.9%	16.4%	13.5%[s]	32.3%
Datum[33]	29–31 Aug 2022	1,200	6.0%	8.0%	9.0%	12.0%	14%	20%[t]	31%
C&E Research[34]	3 Jul 2022	585	7.0%	5.0%	16.0%	29.0%	31.0%	12.0%[u]	N/A
TResearch International[35]	3–5 May 2022	1,000	5.2%	5.6%	10.3%	13.5%	25.2%	40.2%

Second round

Official campaign polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Arévalo Semilla	Torres UNE	Blank/ Null
Second round	20 August 2023	—	60.9%	39.1%	—
Prodatos / Prensa Libre[36]	10–14 August 2023	1,200	64.9%	35.1%	—
		53.6%	29.0%	17.4%
CID Gallup[37]	4–13 August 2023	1,819	64.0%	36.0%	—
CID Gallup[38]	18–27 July 2023	1,242	63.0%	37.0%	—
Innovem[39]	20–26 July 2023	3,773	37.8%	45.0%	17.2%

Favorable or unfavorable opinions

Favorable opinions

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Cifuentes Valor–PU	Conde Vamos	Mulet Cabal	Pineda PC	Ríos Valor–PU	Torres UNE	Villacorta VOS
TResearch International[21]	8–12 Mar 2023	1,000	2.4%	5.6%	21.6%	12.4%	25.1%	19.2%	19.2%

Most favorite for president

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Cifuentes Valor–PU	Conde Vamos	Mulet Cabal	Pineda PC	Ríos Valor–PU	Torres UNE	Villacorta VOS
TResearch International[21]	8–12 Mar 2023	1,000	1.2%	4.1%	14.7%	9.8%	19.1%	13.8%	12.3%

Perception of triumph

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Conde Vamos	Mulet Cabal	Pineda PC	Ríos Valor–PU	Torres UNE	Villacorta VOS	Others	No one
TResearch International[21]	8–12 Mar 2023	1,000	3.5%	14.9%	5.9%	23.4%	19.8%	4.2%	10.0%	18.1%

Notes

1. ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 3.2%
   ▌ Espada (PR): 1.6%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.5%
   ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.3%
   ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.0%
   ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 1.0%
   ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 1.0%
   ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.8%
   ▌ Talamonti (UR): 0.8%
   ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.8%
   ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.4%
   ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.4%
   ▌ Clavería (MF): 0.3%
   ▌ Morales (FCN): 0.2%
2. ▌ Espada (PR): 2.3%
   ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 2.3%
   ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 2.1%
   ▌ Clavería (MF): 1.8%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.8%
   ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.4%
   ▌ Morales (FCN): 1.3%
   ▌ Talamonti (UR): 1.3%
   ▌ Peña (Elephant): 1.3%
   ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.1%
   ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.9%
   ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 0.3%
   ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.3%
   ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.1%
3. ▌ Espada (PR): 5.2%
   ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 3.9%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 3.5%
   ▌ Peña (Elephant): 1.8%
   ▌ Talamonti (UR): 1.5%
   ▌ Morales (FCN): 1.3%
   Others: 1.9%
4. ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 1.8%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.2%
   ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.6%
   ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 0.4%
   ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 0.3%
   ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.3%
   Others: 17.5%
5. ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.2%
   ▌ Espada (PR): 1.0%
   ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 0.9%
   ▌ Talamonti (UR): 0.7%
   ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 0.6%
   ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 0.5%
   ▌ Clavería (MF): 0.5%
   ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 0.5%
   ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.4%
   ▌ Morales (FCN): 0.3%
   ▌ Mérida (PHG): 0.3%
   ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.3%
   ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.2%
   ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 0.1%
   Others: 0.1%
6. ▌ Espada (PR): 1.0%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.0%
   ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 0.5%
   Others: 6.9%
7. ▌ Morales (FCN): 1.5%
   ▌ Mérida (PHG): 1.5%
   ▌ Espada (PR): 1.4%
   ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.2%
   ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 1.1%
   ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 0.9%
   ▌ Talamonti (UR): 0.8%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 0.8%
   ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 0.7%
   ▌ Peña (Elephant): 0.6%
   ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.5%
   ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.2%
   ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 0.0%
   ▌ Clavería (MF): 0.0%
   Others: 3.7%
8. ▌ Morales (FCN): 2.2%
   ▌ Reyes (BIEN): 1.9%
   ▌ Arredondo (CREO): 1.9%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 1.7%
   ▌ Pop (Winaq–URNG): 1.6%
   ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 1.4%
   ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.3%
   ▌ Talamonti (UR): 1.2%
   ▌ Mérida (PHG): 1.0%
   ▌ Peña (Elephant): 1.0%
   ▌ Espada (PR): 1.0%
   ▌ Clavería (MF): 1.0%
   ▌ Trujillo (Change): 0.7%
   ▌ Lam (PIN): 0.0%
9. ▌ Peña (Elephant): 6.0%
   ▌ Farchi (Blue): 3.6%
   ▌ Mérida (PHG): 3.6%
   ▌ Rivera (Victory): 3.6%
   ▌ Pineda (PC): 3.6%
   ▌ Arévalo (Semilla): 2.4%
   ▌ Sagastume (Todos): 1.2%
   ▌ Espada (PR): 1.2%
   ▌ Guzmán (PPN): 1.2%
   ▌ Castillo (VIVA): 1.2%
10. Manuel Conde Orellana: 6.1%, Álvaro Trujillo: 3.0%, others: 19.7%
11. Carlos Pineda: 3%, Rafael Espada 2%, others: 10%
12. Carlos Pineda: 4.3%, others: 9.1%
13. Carlos Pineda: 3.2%, others: 13.0%
14. Carlos Pineda: 5.4%, others: 11.9%
15. Neto Bran: 7.0%, Manuel Conde: 4.0%, Manuel Villacorta: 2.0%, Rafael Espada: 2.0%, Ricardo Méndez: 2.0%, Carlos Pineda: 1.0%, Amílcar Rivera: 1.0%, Julio Rivera: 1.0%, Isaac Farchi: 1.0%, others: 1.0%
16. Carlos Pineda: 2.6%, others: 9.4%
17. Neto Bran: 7.0%
18. Carlos Pineda: 4.4%, others: 8.4%
19. Neto Bran: 4.2%, Manuel Villacorta: 2.1%, others: 7.2%
20. Manuel Villacorta: 7.0%, Oscar R. Castañeda: 5.0%, Manuel Conde: 3.0%, Rafael Espada: 3.0%, Ricardo Sagastume: 2.0%
21. Neto Bran: 3.0%, others: 9.0%