Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election

Several polling firms conducted opinion polls during the term of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament (2020–2023) for the 2023 New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by TVNZ (1News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 17 October 2020. The general election took place on 14 October 2023.^[1]

Party vote

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Smoothing is set to span 65%.

Opinion polls grouped by main blocs.

Nationwide polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, both figures are shaded and displayed in bold. Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to polls not reporting figures for all minor parties and due to rounding. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

The parties shown in the table are Labour (LAB), National (NAT), Green (GRN), ACT, Māori (TPM), New Zealand First (NZF), Opportunities (TOP), New Conservative (NCP), and New Zealand Loyal (NZL). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	GRN	ACT	TPM	NZF	TOP	NCP	Lead
14 Oct 2023	2023 election result	N/A	26.92	38.08	11.61	8.64	3.08	6.09	2.22	0.15	11.16
7–10 Oct 2023	1 News–Verian	1,001	28	37	14	9	1.7	6	2.3	–	9
5–10 Oct 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		27.5	34.5	14.9	8.8	2.7	6.8	2.2	–	7
9 Oct 2023	The Port Waikato electorate vote is cancelled after ACT candidate Neil Christensen dies; a replacement by-election will be held on 25 November 2023.[2]
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023	Roy Morgan	1,250	26	30.5	15	11.5	3	7.5	3.5	-	4.5
4–8 Oct 2023	Guardian Essential	1,200	30.3	34	10.6	7.9	1.9	8.2	–	–	3.7
1–4 Oct 2023	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	27.9	35.9	10.6	9.1	3.7	6.9	2.9	0.7	8
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	1 News–Verian	1,000	26	36	13	10	2.2	6	1.5	–	10
2 Oct 2023	Advance voting for the 2023 general election begins.
22–28 Sep 2023	Talbot Mills	1,027	27	38	13	9	3.1	6.4	2.3	–	11
23–26 Sep 2023	1 News–Verian	1,002	26	36	13	12	1.9	6	1.3	0.6	10
17–23 Sep 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		26.5	39.1	14.2	8.8	2.2	5.2	1.9	1.1	12.6
16–19 Sep 2023	1 News–Verian	1,001	27	37	12	12	2.9	5	1.4	0.1	10
9–12 Sep 2023	1 News–Verian	1,002	28	39	10	10	2.6	5	1.4	0.8	11
6–10 Sep 2023	Guardian Essential	1,154	26.9	34.5	11	10.3	2.5	6	–	–	7.6
3–9 Sep 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		26.8	40.9	12.3	10.1	3.1	4.6	0.7	0.8	14.1
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	26.5	35	12.7	14.3	2.9	3.9	2.7	0.8	8.5
28–30 Aug 2023	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,511	26	36	12	11	3	6	–	–	10
24–30 Aug 2023	Talbot Mills		30	36	12	10	2.4	5.4	1.5	–	6
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023	Roy Morgan	1,046	24	31	12.5	18	4	5.5	2	–	7
25 Aug 2023	Talbot Mills[b]		32	34	11	10	4	6	–	–	2
12–16 Aug 2023	1 News–Verian	1,002	29	37	12	13	2.6	3.7	0.6	0.3	8
3–8 Aug 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	27.1	34.9	12	13	2.5	5.8	1	0.6	7.8
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023	Talbot Mills	1,012	32	35	10	11	3.1	4.4	1.8	–	3
2–6 Aug 2023	Guardian Essential	1,163	29	34.5	8.5	11.6	2.5	5.3	–	–	5.5
26–31 Jul 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		32.3	36.6	9.6	12.1	2.7	4.1	1.5	0.7	4.3
24 Jul 2023	Kiri Allan of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023	Roy Morgan	937	26	33.5	9	14	6	5	4	–	7.5
8–12 Jul 2023	1 News–Verian	1,000	33	35	10	12	2.8	3.1	1.7	0.4	2
2–10 Jul 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	31.1	33.3	8.9	13.2	5	3.3	0.3	0.4	2.2
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023	Talbot Mills	1,036	31	36	8	12	4.2	4	2.9	–	5
29 May – 25 Jun 2023	Roy Morgan	955	30.5	30	9.5	15	7	3	3	–	0.5
21 Jun 2023	Michael Wood of the Labour Party resigns as a minister.
30 May – 6 Jun 2023	Talbot Mills	1,001	36	35	7	11	3.65	2.9	–	–	1
31 May – 6 Jun 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	32.9	35.7	9.7	12.7	3.5	1.6	0.8	1.3	2.8
20–24 May 2023	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	35	37	7	11	2.4	3	1.4	0.6	2
24 Apr – 21 May 2023	Roy Morgan	952	31	31.5	12	13.5	4.5	3.5	2	0.5	0.5
18 May 2023	The 2023 Budget is delivered.
12–17 May 2023	Horizon Research	1,563	34.4	26.5	9.5	12.3	4.3	5.3	2.8	1.4	7.9
5–11 May 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		35.9	35.3	8.1	10.8	3.5	3	2	–	0.6
2–7 May 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.8	35.6	7	12.7	3.7	2.6	1.7	1.6	1.8
3 May 2023	Meka Whaitiri resigns from the Labour Party and joins Te Pāti Māori.
27 Apr – 3 May 2023	Talbot Mills	1,046	33	36	9	10	4.1	3.4	1.8	–	3
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023	Roy Morgan	929	30	32	12	12.5	4.5	4.5	2	0.5	2
2–5 Apr 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	36.9	36.5	6.7	9.5	2.9	2.6	0.8	1.7	0.4
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023	Talbot Mills		36	36	9	10	1.9	3.9	0.8	–	Tie
28 Mar 2023	Stuart Nash of the Labour Party is stripped of all his ministerial portfolios.
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023	Roy Morgan	943	33	32	10.5	13	2	3	3.5	1	1
1–9 Mar 2023	Talbot Mills	1,021	37	34	8	12	3.2	2.9	1.5	–	3
4–8 Mar 2023	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	36	34	11	11	2.6	3.1	1	0.5	2
2–7 Mar 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	35.5	34.8	5.7	9.3	1.4	4.2	1.7	2.5	0.7
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023	Roy Morgan	943	33	32	12.5	13.5	3.5	2	2.5	0.5	1
12 Feb 2023	Cyclone Gabrielle begins impacting the North Island
2–9 Feb 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34.4	34.4	7.8	11.7	2.1	2.9	2	0.8	Tie
26–31 Jan 2023	Talbot Mills		33	36	11	10	3	3.4	2.3	–	3
9–29 Jan 2023	Roy Morgan	948	30	32	12	13.5	4.5	5	1.5	0.5	2
25–29 Jan 2023	1 News–Kantar Public	1,008	38	37	7	10	1.4	2.2	1.1	0.6	1
23–28 Jan 2023	Horizon Research	1,147	35.5	27.7	9	13	4.6	4.5	1.6	1.1	7.8
27 Jan 2023	2023 Auckland Anniversary Weekend floods begin
22–27 Jan 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		38	36.6	8.1	10.7	1.8	2.2	1.5	–	1.4
25 Jan 2023	Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand.
22 Jan 2023	Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023	Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand, taking effect 25 January 2023.
10–16 Jan 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	31.7	37.2	10.6	10.8	1.6	2.8	–	–	5.5
Dec 2022	Roy Morgan	947	27.5	35	11	14.5	4	4	2.5	1	7.5
10 Dec 2022	Tama Potaka of the National Party wins the Hamilton West by-election.
1–6 Dec 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.1	39.4	8.1	10.4	3.5	2.9	–	–	6.3
Dec 2022	Talbot Mills		32	35	9	11	3.5	4.3	2.4	–	3
26–30 Nov 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,011	33	38	9	11	2	3.6	1.7	0.6	5
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022	Roy Morgan	926	25.5	39	12	11	4	3.5	2.5	0.5	13.5
3–8 Nov 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	35.3	37.6	7.8	9.9	1.6	3.8	2.1	0.9	2.3
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022	Talbot Mills		34	35	9	10	3.2	4.4	2	–	1
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022	Newshub–Reid Research		32.3	40.7	9.5	10	1.9	3.3	1.2	–	8.4
20–25 Oct 2022	Horizon Research	1,154	29.7	26.6	13	13.5	2.2	7.2	2	1.8	3.1
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022	Roy Morgan	951	29	32	15.5	12.5	3	3.5	3	0.5	3
2–11 Oct 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34.4	39.2	7.2	9.4	2.1	2.1	3.4	1	4.8
|Oct 2022	Talbot Mills		35	35	9	11	2.2	4	–	–	Tie
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022	Roy Morgan	942	29.5	36	12.5	12.5	3.5	1	2.5	0.5	6.5
17–21 Sep 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,001	34	37	9	9	1.6	3	1.3	1	3
12 Sep 2022	The COVID-19 Protection Framework officially ends.
1–9 Sep 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33.4	37	9.9	12.4	1.5	1.6	0.7	1.5	3.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022	Talbot Mills		35	38	8	9	3	–	–	–	3
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022	Roy Morgan	947	35	35.5	9	10.5	5	1.5	1	0.5	0.5
3–11 Aug 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,200	35.2	34	9.5	11	3.5	2.6	–	–	1.2
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022	Talbot Mills		36	37	9	10	–	–	–	–	1
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,023	33	37	9	11	2.3	2.6	1.9	0.7	4
29 Jul – 3 Aug 2022	Horizon Research	1,044	34.1	31.4	10.2	10.7	2.2	3.5	1.7	2.7	2.7
Jul 2022	Roy Morgan	937	34	35	10.5	11	4	1.5	2.5	1	1
3–10 Jul 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,200	34.7	37	8.5	10	3.7	2.8	–	–	2.3
30 May – 26 Jun 2022	Roy Morgan	947	33.5	39	10	9.5	1.5	1.5	2	0.5	5.5
18 Jun 2022	Sam Uffindell of the National Party wins the Tauranga by-election.
1–12 Jun 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,200	34.2	37.4	8.3	9.4	1.8	2.3	3	1.4	3.2
2–10 Jun 2022	Talbot Mills	1,200	36	35	10	8	3.1	3.3	–	–	1
26 Apr – 22 May 2022	Roy Morgan	934	31.5	40	11.5	10	1	3	1	0.5	8.5
21–25 May 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	35	39	10	7	1.9	1.3	1.7	1.2	4
19 May 2022	The 2022 Budget is delivered.
4–11 May 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34.2	36.8	9.7	10.9	2.4	1.8	1.4	1.3	2.6
29 Apr – 10 May 2022	Talbot Mills[b]		37	36	8	7	3	4	–	–	1
18–27 Apr 2022	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	38.2	40.5	8.4	6.4	2.5	1.7	0.9	0.7	2.3
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022	Roy Morgan	918	33.5	37.5	10.5	10	1.5	2.5	2	0.5	4
13 Apr 2022	New Zealand shifts from the Red Light setting to the Orange Light setting of the COVID-19 Protection Framework.
7–13 Apr 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	36.8	37.8	9.4	8.4	3.6	1.7	–	–	1
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022	Roy Morgan	944	32	38	10.5	9	2	4	1.5	0.5	6
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	36.2	35.3	12.4	11.2	0.2	1.8	0.1	0.6	0.9
5–8 Mar 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,000	37	39	9	8	2.3	2.2	1.3	0.9	2
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022	Roy Morgan	963	32	38	11	11.5	2	2	1	1	6
1–10 Feb 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	42.3	38.4	6.3	6.6	1	1.5	2	–	3.9
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	44.3	31.3	9.6	8	2	1.8	1.5	1.1	13
4–30 Jan 2022	Roy Morgan	951	33	35	10.5	13.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	1	2
22–26 Jan 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,000	40	32	9	11	1.6	1.8	1.6	1	8
23 Jan 2022	Nationwide Red Light restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Omicron variant being detected in the community.
10–17 Jan 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	41.2	33	10.7	11.5	0.5	0.9	1.1	–	8.2
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021	Roy Morgan	967	35.5	31.5	8.5	18.5	1	2	1	0.5	4
1–8 Dec 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39.5	32.6	10.9	10.6	3	2.3	–	–	6.9
2 Dec 2021	New Zealand shifts from the COVID-19 alert level system to the new COVID-19 Protection Framework system.
30 Nov 2021	Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party with Nicola Willis as his deputy.
25 Nov 2021	Judith Collins loses the National Party leadership.
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021	Roy Morgan	951	36	26.5	10.5	17.5	3	2.5	1.5	1	9.5
10–17 Nov 2021	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	42.7	26.9	7.2	16	2.1	2.5	1.2	0.9	15.8
6–10 Nov 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,001	41	28	9	14	0.9	3.3	1.2	1	13
1–8 Nov 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39.3	26.2	8.6	15.9	2.3	1.7	–	–	13.1
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021	Labour–Talbot Mills[b]	1,023	41	24	9	17	2.4	4.2	–	–	17
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021	Roy Morgan	929	39.5	26	10.5	16	2	2.5	1	1.5	13.5
3–11 Oct 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	44.8	22.5	6.4	16.6	1.5	3.6	–	–	22.3
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021	Labour–Talbot Mills[b]	1,200+	46	22	7	16	1.9	3.8	–	–	24
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021	Roy Morgan	940	45.5	23	9.5	16	2	1.5	1.5	–	22.5
22–26 Sep 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,001	43	26	8	14	2.1	2.5	1.2	1.3	17
5–9 Sep 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[b]	1,000	45.8	21.3	9.6	14.9	1.2	2.7	–	–	24.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021	Labour–Talbot Mills[b]	1,050	45	26	6	13	2	4.1	–	–	19
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021	Roy Morgan	940	39.5	25	12	13	2.5	2.5	2	–	14.5
17 Aug 2021	Nationwide Level 4 restrictions are implemented due to the COVID−19 Delta variant being detected in the community.
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021	Labour–Talbot Mills[b]	1,216	43	28	7	13	1.7	4.4	–	–	15
22–29 Jul 2021	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	43	28.7	8.5	11.1	1.9	3.4	0.8	1.6	14.3
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021	Roy Morgan	945	39.5	29	10	13	2.5	2	3	–	10.5
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021	Labour–Talbot Mills[b]	1,199	48	24	8	11	1.5	5	–	–	24
31 May – 27 Jun 2021	Roy Morgan	927	38.5	29.5	12.5	11.5	2.5	1.5	2	–	9
22–26 May 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	46	29	8	9	1.8	1.2	1.8	1.5	17
26 Apr – 23 May 2021	Roy Morgan	932	45	28.5	11	9	1.5	2	1.5	–	16.5
20 May 2021	The 2021 Budget is delivered.
7–13 May 2021	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000	52.7	27	7.1	6.9	1.2	1.9	1.3	1.2	25.7
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021	Roy Morgan	933	41.5	29.5	13.5	9	2.5	1	0.5	–	12
21–28 Mar 2021	Roy Morgan	924	45.5	23	12	11	1	2.5	2	–	22.5
9–13 Mar 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,006	49	27	9	8	1.5	1.8	1.2	1.4	22
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021	Roy Morgan	924	45	29	13.5	7.5	1	1.5	1	–	16
4–24 Jan 2021	Roy Morgan	937	47	25	11.5	9	2	2	1.5	–	22
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020	Roy Morgan	923	44	28	10.5	10	2	2	2	–	16
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020	1 News–Kantar Public	1,004	53	25	8	8	1.5	1.6	0.5	1.1	28
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020	Roy Morgan	939	44	25.5	12.5	10.5	1.5	1	2	–	18.5
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	50	25.6	7.9	7.6	1.2	2.6	1.5	1.5	24.4
Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	GRN	ACT	TPM	NZF	TOP	NCP	Lead

General electorates

Auckland Central

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	GRN	LAB	NAT	ACT	NZF	Lead
24 Sep 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[4]	500	38	17	36	2	4	2
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	35.10	32.13	27.16	1.63	0.76	2.97

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	ACT	GRN	Lead
24 Sep 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[5][6]	500	26	37	9	23	11
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	46.02	21.10	7.48	19.06	24.92

Ilam

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	TOP	GRN	Lead
23 Aug 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[7]	400	15	33	14	5	18
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	45.67	37.69	N/A	7.51	7.98

Napier

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	ACT	NZF	Lead
20 Aug 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[8]	400	37	48	1	5	11
9 Nov 2022	Curia[9]	400	37	45	12	1	8
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	51.06	37.04	N/A	N/A	18.77

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	ACT	Lead
20 Aug 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[8]	400	27	35	17	8
9 Nov 2022	Curia[9]	400	25	43	20	18
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	50.59	27.90	8.12	12.76

Northland

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	NZF	GRN	DNZ	ACT	Lead
10 Sep 2023	Taxpayers' Union-Curia[10]	400	49	20	15	5	5	3	29
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result	N/A	37.74	38.11	11.43	3.91	N/A	2.86	0.37

Tāmaki

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	Lead
18–28 Sep 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[11]	400	40	14	–	38	2
20 Jul 2023	Sentio Group[12]	700	36	8	6	34	2
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	51.73	32.29	7.85	5.18	19.44

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	ACT	GRN	Lead
18–28 Sep 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia[11]	400	20	49	14	8	29
20 Jul 2023	Sentio Group[12]	700	13	49	18	–	36
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	38.42	36.87	11.68	7.65	1.55

Tauranga

An opinion poll was held in the Tauranga electorate prior to the June 2022 Tauranga by-election. The by-election was won by National's Sam Uffindell.^[13]

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	ACT	GRN	NZF	TPM	Lead
18 Jun 2022	2022 by-election result	N/A	25.30	55.87	10.26	N/A	N/A	N/A	30.57
19–29 May 2022	Newshub–Reid Research[14]	?	27.9	51.5	7.1	2.8	2.9	4.7	23.6
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	42.0	32.5	8.9	5.5	3.6	0.35	9.5

Wellington Central

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	GRN	Lead
3–14 Sep 2023	Newshub–Reid Research	500	28.0	30.6	26.6	2.6
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	17.76	57.26	17.54	39.50

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	NAT	GRN	ACT	TOP	TPM	NZF	Lead
3–14 Sep 2023	Newshub–Reid Research[15]	500	27.8	28	26.5	5.7	4.9	3	2.8	0.2
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	43.0	14.43	30.33	4.86	3.72	0.53	1.11	12.67

Māori electorates

Hauraki-Waikato

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	Lead
27 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[16]	500	36	32	4
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	65.26	25.57	39.69

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	Lead
27 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[16]	500	26	26	14	8	6	5	0
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	63.38	12.00	3.65	6.21	3.58	1.28	51.38

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	Lead
21 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[17]	500	33	25	8
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	55.57	30.94	24.63

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	Lead
21 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[17]	500	35	24	11	7	6	4	11
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	67.33	12.16	2.33	6.48	3.76	0.88	55.17

Tāmaki Makaurau

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	Lead
10 October 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[18]	500	37	27	9	6	10
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	39.56	35.98	N/A	19.31	3.58

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	Lead
10 October 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[18]	500	35	22	10	9	8	2	13
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	59.98	12.7	3.21	10.46	4.34	1.06	50.01

Te Tai Hauāuru

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	Lead
19 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[19]	500	34	29	12	5
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	47.40	43.29	N/A	4.11

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	Lead
19 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[19]	500	34	22	13	6	7	2	12
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	61.03	15.45	2.99	6.71	3.51	1.20	45.58

Te Tai Tokerau

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	GRN	ALC	Lead
5 October 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[20]	500	32	26	7	6	6
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	55.07	24.96	N/A	7.86	30.11

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	ACT	Lead
5 October 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[20]	500	35	22	8	9	4	13
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	60.06	10.18	3.61	7.35	1.31	49.88

Te Tai Tonga

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	Lead
26 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[21]	500	36	25	9
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	48.88	25.41	23.47

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	Lead
26 September 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[21]	500	31	18	9	14	3	6	13
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	58.70	8.69	5.64	11.54	3.45	2.75	50.01

Waiariki

Electorate vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	TPM	LAB	Lead
9 October 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[22]	500	50	22	28
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	46.78	43.62	3.16

Party vote

Date	Polling organisation	Sample size	LAB	TPM	NAT	GRN	NZF	ACT	Lead
9 October 2023	Whakaata Māori–Curia[22]	500	37	29	6	7	4	3	8
17 Oct 2020	2020 election result[3]	N/A	60.67	17.75	2.39	5.95	3.67	0.94	42.92

Preferred prime minister

Some opinion pollsters ask voters who they would prefer as prime minister. The phrasing of questions and the treatment of refusals, as well as "don't know" answers, differ from poll to poll. To qualify for this table and graph, this person must reach at least 3 percent in three separate polls.

Graph of preferred prime minister opinion polls (as at 10 October 2023). Only includes people who polled at least 3% in three separate polls. Smoothing is set to span 45%.

Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Hipkins	Luxon	Seymour	Peters	Ardern	Collins	Lead
7–10 Oct 2023	1 News–Verian	1,001	25	25	4	5	0.5	0.2	Tie
5–10 Oct 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		22.2	23.6	4.2	5	3.4	–	1.4
1–4 Oct 2023	Taxpayers’ Union–Curia	1,000	27	29	4	4.3	4.5	–	2
30 Sep – 3 Oct 2023	1 News–Verian	1,000	25	26	3	4	0.4	–	1
23–26 Sep 2023	1 News–Verian	1,002	23	23	5	4	1	–	Tie
17–23 Sep 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		19.1	24	6.1	6	4.1	–	4.9
16–19 Sep 2023	1 News–Verian	1,001	23	23	5	4	1	0.2	Tie
9–12 Sep 2023	1 News–Verian	1,002	23	23	5	4	1	0.1	Tie
3–9 Sep 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		22.5	22.5	7	4.6	–	–	Tie
28–30 Aug 2023	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,511	45	43	–	–	–	–	2
24–30 Aug 2023	Talbot Mills		28	26	11	-	-	-	2
12–16 Aug 2023	1 News–Verian	1,000	21	20	6	3	2	0.2	1
3–8 Aug 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	25	25	7	7	–	–	Tie
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023	Talbot Mills	1,012	34	24	-	-	-	-	10
26–31 Jul 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		24	15.9	10.9	4.3	–	–	8.1
8–12 Jul 2023	1 News–Verian	1,000	24	20	7	2	1	–	4
2–10 Jul 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	23	20	6	3.6	8	-	3
28 Jun – 2 Jul 2023	Talbot Mills	1,036	32	21	-	-	-	-	11
31 May – 6 Jun 2023	Taxpayers' Union Curia	1,000	29	23	7	2.8	9	-	6
20–24 May 2023	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	25	18	7	2	1	0.1	7
5–11 May 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		23.4	16.4	7.5	3.6	8.5	–	7
27 Apr – 3 May 2023	Talbot Mills	1,046	32	25	–	–	–	–	7
30 Mar – 5 Apr 2023	Talbot Mills		36	24	11	–	–	–	12
1–9 Mar 2023	Talbot Mills	1,021	39	23	–	–	–	–	16
4–8 Mar 2023	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	27	17	6	3	2	0.2	10
2–7 Mar 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	30	21	8	–	7	–	9
1–9 Feb 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	30	26	8	3.5	9	–	4
26–31 Jan 2023	Talbot Mills		35	27	9	–	–	–	8
25–29 Jan 2023	1 News–Kantar Public	1,008	23	22	6	2	5	0.3	1
22–27 Jan 2023	Newshub–Reid Research		19.6	18.8	8	2.9	12.4	–	0.8
25 Jan 2023	Chris Hipkins is sworn in as the 41st Prime Minister of New Zealand.
22 Jan 2023	Chris Hipkins is unanimously elected Leader of the Labour Party.
19 Jan 2023	Jacinda Ardern announces her resignation as Prime Minister of New Zealand, taking effect 25 January 2023.
1–6 Dec 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		26.3	7.1	3.4	35.3	—	9
26–30 Nov 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,011	0.2	23	6	2	29	0.1	6
3–8 Nov 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		21.1	6.1	2.5	35	—	13.9
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022	Talbot Mills			24	—	–	40	–	16
25 Oct – 3 Nov 2022	Newshub–Reid Research			21.5	7.3	4.2	29.9	–	8.4
2–11 Oct 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		22.5	7.3	3.6	32.9	—	10.4
17–21 Sep 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,001	0.2	21	4	2	30	0.1	9
1–9 Sep 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		25.9	6.6	2.6	36.5	—	10.6
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022	Talbot Mills			26	—	–	38	–	12
3–11 Aug 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,200		19.5	7.7	4.2	39.5	—	20
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022	Talbot Mills			26	9	–	39	–	13
30 Jul – 3 Aug 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,023	0.2	22	5	2	30	0.2	8
3–10 Jul 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,200		22.4	6.1	2.3	41.2	—	18.8
1–12 Jun 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,200		28	5.6	3.8	39.7	—	11.7
2–10 Jun 2022	Talbot Mills	1,200		29	8		42		13
21–25 May 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	–	25	3	1	33	0.1	8
4–11 May 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		27.9	–	–	35.1	—	7.2
18–27 Apr 2022	Newshub–Reid Research			23.9	5.1	—	36.3	–	12.4
7–13 Apr 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		28.6	4.8	2.6	36.3	—	7.7
2–7, 14–15 Mar 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		26.6	4.4	5.5	38.7	—	12.1
5–8 Mar 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,000	0.3	25	5	2	34	0.3	9
1–10 Feb 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		28.5	2.4	1.8	38.9	1.5	10.4
22 Jan – 4 Feb 2022	Newshub–Reid Research			17.8	7.9	—	43.3	–	25.5
22–26 Jan 2022	1 News–Kantar Public	1,000	0.1	17	6	1.0	35	0.2	18
10–17 Jan 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		18.4	8.4	0.9	37.5	3.8	19.1
1–8 Dec 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		20.4	5.6	2.4	39.1	0.8	18.7
30 Nov 2021	Christopher Luxon is elected Leader of the National Party.
25 Nov 2021	Judith Collins is removed as National Party leader in a vote of no confidence.
10–17 Nov 2021	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000		2.5	11.9	—	41.7	6.1	29.8
6–10 Nov 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,001	–	4	11	1	39	5	28
1–8 Nov 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		4.1	10.5	1.5	34	6.3	23.5
29 Oct – 3 Nov 2021	Talbot Mills	1,023		2	15	—	47	10	32
3–11 Oct 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		2.3	12.3	1.3	47.2	5.2	34.9
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021	Talbot Mills	1,200+		–	16	—	51	9	35
22–26 Sep 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,001	0.1	3	11	0.7	44	5	33
5–9 Sep 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000		3.3	9.3	1.5	50.8	4.4	41.5
31 Aug – 6 Sep 2021	Talbot Mills	1,050		1.3	14	—	55	13	41
21 Jul – 1 Aug 2021	Talbot Mills	1,216		2.1	14	—	50	11	36
22–29 Jul 2021	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000		–	8.6	—	45.5	8.2	36.9
24 Jun – 1 Jul 2021	Talbot Mills	1,199		–	12	—	55	10	43
22–26 May 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,002	–	3	6	1	48	9	39
7–13 May 2021	Newshub–Reid Research	1,000		2.4	—	—	48.1	5.6	42.5
9–13 Mar 2021	1 News–Kantar Public	1,006	–	2	4	0.7	43	8	35
28 Nov – 2 Dec 2020	1 News–Kantar Public	1,004	0.3	2	4	1	58	12	46

Government approval rating

The government approval rating is a statistic which measures the proportion of people who say they think the country is heading in the right direction or wrong direction politically.

Graph of government approval rating polls (as at 31 August 2023). Smoothing is set to span 65%.

Date[a]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Right direction	Wrong direction	Do not know	Lead
4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023	Roy Morgan	–	38	45	17	7
31 Jul – 27 Aug 2023	Roy Morgan	1,046	32	56	12	23
28–30 Aug 2023	The Post–Freshwater Strategy	1,511	21	63	15	42
31 Jul – 7 Aug 2023	Talbot Mills	1,012	37	55	8	18
2–6 Aug 2023	Guardian Essential	1,163	31	55	14	24
26 Jun – 23 Jul 2023	Roy Morgan	937	29	60.5	10.5	31.5
2–10 Jul 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	22.1	64.5	13.4	42.4
29 May – 25 Jun 2023	Roy Morgan	955	38	54	8	16
24 Apr – 21 May 2023	Roy Morgan	952	34.5	54.5	11	20
27 Apr – 3 May 2023	Talbot Mills	1,046	40	52	8	12
27 Mar – 23 Apr 2023	Roy Morgan	929	35	55	10	20
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2023	Roy Morgan	945	38.5	52.5	9	14
30 Jan – 26 Feb 2023	Roy Morgan	943	42.5	47.5	10	5
9–29 Jan 2023	Roy Morgan	948	40	49	11	9
Dec 2022	Roy Morgan	947	32	57	11	25
31 Oct – 27 Nov 2022	Roy Morgan	926	35	55	10	20
31 Oct – 7 Nov 2022	Talbot Mills		41	49	10	8
26 Sep – 23 Oct 2022	Roy Morgan	951	42	50	8	8
2–11 Oct 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	29	56	15	27
29 Aug – 25 Sep 2022	Roy Morgan	942	37.5	51.5	11	14
1–9 Sep 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	32	54	14	22
31 Aug – 7 Sep 2022	Talbot Mills		44	49	7	5
25 Jul – 21 Aug 2022	Roy Morgan	947	37.5	53	9.5	15.5
28 Jul – 8 Aug 2022	Talbot Mills		42	50	8	8
27 Jul – 24 Jul 2022	Roy Morgan	937	40.5	51	8.5	10.5
30 May – 26 Jun 2022	Roy Morgan	947	39	51.5	9.5	12.5
1–12 Jun 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,200	36	50	14	14
2–10 Jun 2022	Talbot Mills	1,200	50	42	8	8
26 Apr – 22 May 2022	Roy Morgan	934	40	50	10	10
4–11 May 2022	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34	48	18	14
29 Apr – 10 May 2022	Talbot Mills		51	40	9	11
28 Mar – 24 Apr 2022	Roy Morgan	913	43	49.5	7.5	6.5
28 Feb – 27 Mar 2022	Roy Morgan	944	39	51.5	9.5	12.5
31 Jan – 27 Feb 2022	Roy Morgan	963	42.5	47.5	10	5
4–30 Jan 2022	Roy Morgan	951	48.5	42	9.5	6.5
22 Nov – 19 Dec 2021	Roy Morgan	967	42.5	44.5	13	2
25 Oct – 21 Nov 2021	Roy Morgan	951	46	44.5	9.5	1.5
1–8 Nov 2021	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	44	45	11	1
27 Sep – 24 Oct 2021	Roy Morgan	929	48	38.5	13.5	9.5
28 Sep – 5 Oct 2021	Talbot Mills	1,200	63	30	7	33
30 Aug – 26 Sep 2021	Roy Morgan	940	57	32	11	25
26 Jul – 22 Aug 2021	Roy Morgan	940	52.5	37.5	10	15
28 Jun – 25 Jul 2021	Roy Morgan	945	55.5	34.5	10	21
31 May – 27 Jun 2021	Roy Morgan	927	57	33	10	24
26 Apr – 23 May 2021	Roy Morgan	932	62.5	28.5	9	34
29 Mar – 25 Apr 2021	Roy Morgan	933	62.5	26.5	11	36
21–28 Mar 2021	Roy Morgan	924	61.5	26	12.5	35.5
25 Jan – 21 Feb 2021	Roy Morgan	924	69.5	20	10.5	49.5
4–24 Jan 2021	Roy Morgan	937	71.5	18.5	10	53
23 Nov – 13 Dec 2020	Roy Morgan	923	71.5	18	10.5	53.5
26 Oct – 22 Nov 2020	Roy Morgan	939	69.5	20	10.5	49.5

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom, Greens retain Auckland Central, Māori retains Waiariki, etc.). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[23]

On 19 November 2022, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters ruled out a coalition with Labour, claiming "No one gets to lie to me twice".^[24] In April 2023, National leader Christopher Luxon commented that it would be "highly unlikely" that National would form a government with Te Pāti Māori or the Greens; however, a spokesperson later clarified Luxon had not "intended to fully rule out working" with either party. At the time, Te Pāti Māori was largely seen as the kingmaker in the upcoming election.^[25] Furthermore, Te Pāti Māori may not be prepared to support a National-led government that includes the ACT Party, as Te Pāti Māori has repeatedly accused the ACT Party of race baiting over co-governance and its calls for a referendum on the Treaty of Waitangi.^[26] On 10 May, Luxon officially ruled out forming a coalition with Te Pāti Māori.^[27] On 27 August, Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruled out New Zealand First as a possible coalition partner.^[28]

Source	Seats in parliament[i]							Likely government formation(s)
	LAB	NAT	GRN	ACT	TPM	NZF	Total
2023 election result[29] 14 Oct 2023	34	48	15	11	6	8	122	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
1 News–Verian[30] 7–10 Oct 2023 poll	35	47	17	11	2	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
Newshub–Reid Research[31] 5–10 Oct 2023 poll	35	43	19	11	3	9	120	National–ACT–NZ First (63)
Guardian Essential[32] 4–8 Oct 2023 poll	39	44	14	10	2	11	120	National–ACT–NZ First (65)
Roy Morgan[33] 4 Sep – 8 Oct 2023 poll	33	39	19	15	4	10	120	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[34] 1–4 Oct 2023 poll	35	46	13	12	5	9	120	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[35] 22–28 Sep 2023 poll	34	47	16	11	4	8	120	National–ACT–NZ First (66)
The Post/Freshwater Strategy[36] 28–30 Aug 2023 poll	34	46	15	14	4	7	120	National–ACT–NZ First (67)

1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

• 2020 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2020 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. Private poll