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Opinion polling for the next German federal election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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In the run-up to the next German federal election following the recent 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place before 26 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.
Electoral threshold of 5%
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Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties that either receive at least 5 percent of proportional votes (called "second votes" in Germany as the option appears second on the ballot, after the constituency or "first" vote), or win at least three constituencies. For example, in the 2021 German federal election, Die Linke (The Left) won 3 constituencies and thus received proportional representation despite receiving just 4.9% of second votes. In 2022, this three constituency provision was abolished, but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) which competes only in Bavaria, and therefore has often been close to missing the 5% nationwide, despite regularly winning all constituencies in the state. As the CDU does not run in Bavaria, only a few polls show the CDU and CSU as separate parties, with most combining the CDU/CSU as the "Union". The two parties always coalition together in the federal level and agree on the vast majority of issues.
In the February 2025 snap election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are present in a few state parliaments and even in state governments, and are still regularly polled despite not being present in the current Bundestag.
Some polls include the Free Voters (FW), a general name used by unaffiliated groups in local elections, which was adopted by a party that is present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are categorised as "others".
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Cordon sanitaire against AfD
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From the 1960s to the 1990s, Germany was basically a three party country. CDU (CSU in Bavaria) and SPD polled at around 40% on federal level, and they were able to form two-party coalitions with FDP. In some states like Bavaria, or cities like Bremen, single party governments were usual. Due to the emergence of additional parties, the Greens in the 1980s, the former East German Left in 1990s united Germany, the AfD since 2013, single party governments have become rare in Germany, with only a few examples in state governments (since 2022 the SPD-only Rehlinger cabinet in Saarland).
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) was soon considered far-right by all other major parties. This is because the party has been classified by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization. Numerous court rulings have confirmed this classification, including the Administrative Court of Cologne (Case No. 13 K 326/21, judgment of March 8, 2022), the Higher Administrative Court of Münster (Case No. OVG 5 A 1216/22, judgment of May 13, 2024). An appeal against this judgment was not admitted by the Federal Administrative Court (Case No. BVerwG 6 B 21.24, decision of May 20, 2025). They have joined a "firewall" policy that rejects cooperation with the AfD, with some parties wanting to initiate ban proceedings. On a local level, the CDU, SPD, and FW voted to bar Joachim Paul from running for Lord Mayor of Ludwigshafen in September 2025. Thus, for the time being, two-party or three-party government coalitions on federal, state, and local levels are formed by either CDU/CSU and SPD, or by CDU/CSU or SPD with various degrees of support from Greens, Left, FDP, or in some states BSW and FW.
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Reliability of pollsters
The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and America-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association.[1]
Poll results
Graphical summary
2025
CDU and CSU
Scenario polls
National-wide CSU
Voting intention after hypothetical AfD ban
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By state
Bavaria
North Rhine-Westphalia
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By Western and Eastern Germany
Western Germany
Eastern Germany
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Chancellor polling
Merz vs. Weidel
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Preferred coalition
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Constituency projections
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With the new electoral reform, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities.[13]
Constituency pluralities
By probability
Second place
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Notes
- Rounded from 4.98%, which is below the threshold for parliamentary representation in Germany.
- Coalition would break the cordon sanitaire/firewall against the far-right in Germany with the AfD.
References
External links
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