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Opinion polling for the next Israeli legislative election

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In the run up to the next Israeli legislative election, various organisations are conducting opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the twenty-fifth Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the 2022 Israeli legislative election, held on 1 November, to the present day. In keeping with the election silence law, no polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00.[1]

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the highest figures. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

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Seat projections

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This section displays voting intention estimates referring to the next Knesset election. The figures listed are Knesset seat counts rather than percentages, unless otherwise stated.

This graph shows the polling trends from the 2022 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using local regressions (LOESS). Scenario polls are not included here. For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

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Local regression of polls conducted

Poll results are listed in the table below. Parties that fall below the electoral threshold of 3.25% are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%), rather than the number of seats they would have received.

Legend

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset. If a bloc has a majority, the sum is displayed in bold with its background shaded in the leading party's colour.

2025

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2024

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2022–23

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Channel 14 Direct Polls

Direct Polls, published by Channel 14, is led by Shlomo Filber who is affiliated with Likud and its leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Filber is implicated in Case 4000 on charges of breach of trust; thus it may be advisable to approach their opinion polls with caution.[269][270][271][272]

2025

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2024

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2022–23

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Voting intention polls (reported as percentages)

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The following polls reported raw percentages of responses without calculating seat projections:

2024

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Scenario polls

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Most often, opinion polling about hypothetical scenarios is done in the same survey as the regular polling. This is why these scenario polls are paired for comparison purposes.

  Regular poll
  Scenario poll

Naftali Bennett scenarios

Naftali Bennett's new party runs
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Naftali Bennett forms a new party
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Bennett 2026 does not run
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Other new right-wing opposition party scenarios

New Hope splits from National Unity
More information Date, Polling firm ...
Naftali Bennett forms a new party and Yoaz Hendel forms a new party
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Naftali Bennett forms a new party and Yoav Gallant forms a new party
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Yoav Gallant forms a new party
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Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen form two separate new parties
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Yossi Cohen forms a new party
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Yoaz Hendel forms a new party
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Yariv Levin forms a new party
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New anti-judicial overhaul right-wing party
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Other new party scenarios

Gadi Eisenkot forms a new party
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New party headed by the anti-judicial reform protest leaders
More information Date, Polling firm ...
New party headed by the anti-judicial reform protest leaders with a new right wing liberal party
More information Date, Polling firm ...

Labor-Meretz scenarios (prior to merger)

Labor and Meretz run together under Yair Golan
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Labor and Meretz run together
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Alternative leadership scenarios

Gadi Eisenkot leads National Unity
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Nir Barkat leads the Likud
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Yossi Cohen leads the Likud
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Yoav Gallant leads the Likud
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United right wing party outside the government

Naftali Bennett forms a new party and forms an alliance with Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope
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Naftali Bennett forms a new party and forms an alliance with Yisrael Beiteinu
Yoaz Hendel and Naftali Bennett form a new party
United right wing party with Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, Yossi Cohen, Ayelet Shaked and Gideon Sa'ar
United right wing party with Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, Yossi Cohen, Ayelet Shaked and Gideon Sa'ar and a separate "Reservists' Party" led by Yoaz Hendel
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New right-wing opposition party and Labor-Meretz scenarios (prior to merger)

Labor and Meretz run together under Yair Golan; Gideon Sa'ar, Naftali Bennett, Yossi Cohen, Avigdor Lieberman form a new party
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Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen form two separate new parties, and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz joint list
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Merger of Gideon Sa'ar, Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen & Labor and Meretz under Yair Golan
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New Hope splits from National Unity, Naftali Bennett, Yossi Cohen and Yoaz Hendel form three separate new parties, and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz joint list
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Yoav Gallant forms a new party and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union
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Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen form a new party and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union
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Naftali Bennett forms a new party and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union
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Other scenarios and scenario combinations

Naftali Bennett forms new party and Gadi Eisenkot becomes head of National Unity
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Naftali Bennett forms a new party, Yossi Cohen becomes Likud leader and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union
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Naftali Bennett forms a new party, Nir Barkat becomes Likud leader and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union
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Naftali Bennett forms a new party, Yoav Gallant becomes Likud leader and Yair Golan is the head of a Labor and Meretz union
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United right wing party with Avigdor Lieberman, Naftali Bennett, Yossi Cohen, and Gideon Sa'ar, and National Unity and Yesh Atid form an alliance
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Gadi Eisenkot joins Yesh Atid
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Merger of Gadi Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett
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Gadi Eisenkot joins Yisrael Beiteinu
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Leadership polling

Whether voters intend to vote for the same party that they did in 2022

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Among whole of population

The following polls asked potential voters about their voting intentions in the next election relative to their vote in the previous election, asking whether they intend to vote for the same party as they did in the 2022 election.

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By 2022 vote

2022 Balad voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Balad in 2022 whether they intend to vote for the party again in the next election.

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2022 Hadash-Ta'al voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Hadash-Ta'al in 2022 whether they intend to vote for the party again in the next election.

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2022 Shas voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Shas in 2022 whether would vote for the party again in the next election.

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2022 Labor voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Labor in 2022 whether would vote for the party or its successor party (The Democrats) in the next election. In September 2024, Labor agreed to merge with Meretz to form The Democrats. Beginning in June 2022, this question began asking Labor and Meretz voters whether they intended to vote for this merger.

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2022 Likud voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Likud in 2022 whether would vote for the party again in the next election.

More information Date, Polling firm ...

2022 Meretz voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Meretz in 2022 whether would vote for the party or its successor party (The Democrats) in the next election. In September 2024, Meretz agreed to merge with Labor to form The Democrats. Beginning in June 2022, this question began asking Labor and Meretz voters whether they intended to vote for this merger.

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2022 National Unity voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for National Unity in 2022 whether would vote for the party again in the next election.

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2022 Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism voters

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2022 Ra’am voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Ra’am in 2022 whether they intend to vote for the party again in the next election.

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2022 United Torah Judaism voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for United Torah Judaism in 2022 whether would vote for the party again in the next election.

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2022 Yesh Atid voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Yesh Atid in 2022 whether would vote for the party again in the next election.

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2022 Yisrael Beiteinu voters

The following polls asked potential voters who had voted for Yisrael Beiteinu in 2022 whether would vote for the party again in the next election.

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Other questions

Inclusion of ultra-orthodox parties in the next government

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Satisfaction with result of 2022 election

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See also

Notes

  1. Total includes the 4 seats that New Hope won in 2022, as New Hope has formally agreed to merge into Likud before the next election.[23]
  2. Total includes the 4 seats that New Hope won in 2022, as New Hope has formally agreed to merge into Likud before the next election[23]
  3. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party option, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided.
  4. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party option, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided.
  5. combined 2022 popular vote of Labor and Meretz, the precursor parties of The Democrats
  6. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party option, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided.
  7. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party option, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided.
  8. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party option, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided.
  9. July 2024 survey grouped Yisrael Beiteinu with New Hope and "a new right-wing party" on a possible joint ticket
  10. July 2024 survey grouped Yisrael Beiteinu with New Hope and "a new right-wing party" on a possible joint ticket
  11. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided.
  12. combined 2022 popular vote of Labor and Meretz, the precursor parties of The Democrats
  13. Recalculated to omit respondents that answered "will not vote" or that declined to respond. Raw data of poll (out of 750 respondents) saw 27 (4%) decline to respond; 72 (10%) answer "will not vote"; with the remaining answers being Likud 50 (7%), Yesh Atid 84 (11%), Otzma Yehudit 39 (5%), National Unity 108 (14%), New Hope 8 (1%), Shas 26 (3%), UTJ 40 (5%), Yisrael Beiteinu 27 (4%), Ra'am 21 (3%), Hadash–Ta'al 19 (3%), Labor 15 (2%), Meretz 28 (4%), Balad 15 (2%), Other 14 (2%), undecided 137 (18%)
  14. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided.
  15. Recalculated to omit respondents that answered "will not vote" or that declined to respond. Raw data of poll (out of 750 respondents) saw 23 (3%) decline to respond; 63 (8%) answer "will not vote"; with the remaining answers being Likud 60 (8%), Yesh Atid 75 (10%), Otzma Yehudit 34 (5%), National Unity 105 (14%), New Hope 5 (1%), Shas 29 (4%), UTJ 37 (5%), Yisrael Beiteinu 38 (5%), Ra'am 23 (3%), Hadash–Ta'al 11 (1%), Labor 17 (2%), Meretz 18 (2%), Balad 5 (1%), Other 11 (1%), undecided 180 (24%)
  16. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided..
  17. Recalculated to omit respondents that answered "will not vote" or that declined to respond. Raw data of poll (out of 755 respondents) saw 32 (4%) decline to respond; 79 (10%) answer "will not vote"; with the remaining answers being Likud 80 (11%), Yesh Atid 47 (6%), Otzma Yehudit 44 (6%), National Unity 128 (18%), New Hope 16 (2%) Shas 26 (3%), UTJ 34 (5%), Yisrael Beiteinu 40 (5%), Ra'am 15 (2%), Hadash–Ta'al 23 (3%), Labor 10 (1%), Meretz 17 (2%), Balad 9 (1%), Other 6 (1%), undecided 137 (18%)
  18. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided..
  19. Recalculated to omit respondents that answered "will not vote" or that declined to respond. Raw data of poll (out of 750 respondents) saw 75 (10%) decline to respond; 105 (14%) answer "will not vote"; with the remaining answers being Likud 75 (10%), Yesh Atid 68 (9%), Otzma Yehudit 29 (4%), National Unity 176 (23%), Shas 32 (4%), UTJ 30 (4%), Yisrael Beiteinu 40 (9%), Ra'am 30 (4%), Hadash–Ta'al 8 (1%), Labor 22 (2%), Meretz 22 (3%), Balad 11 (1%), Other 14 (2%), undecided 12 (2%)
  20. Voting share only for respondents that expressed preference for a particular party, does not include respondents who indicate that they were unsure, who declined to answer, or who are undecided..
  21. "Very satisfied" 20%; "quite satisfied" 23%
  22. "Not at all satisfied" 32%; "not so satisfied" 20%
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References

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