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Opinion polling on Scottish independence
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Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns the nearly 300 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The main table includes primarily those polls which ask the same question as the 2014 referendum: "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?". Other tables reflect different questions on independence, which may produce different results. Any factors that might affect the poll result, such as excluding 16 and 17-year-old voters, are recorded in the 'Notes' column. The table also lists some events that may have impacted on polls including Brexit, COVID-19 and party leadership changes.
Polls in the main table, using the same question, will show systematic differences between different polling organisations. Therefore to discern trends it is helpful to compare a poll with previous results from same pollster.
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Graphical summary
Polls using the 2014 referendum question
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Other polling formats
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Polls using Remain / Leave Question
Some organisations have chosen to commission polls that adopt the remain / leave formulation that was used in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.
The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. SNP depute leader Keith Brown said in September 2019 that it was "a deliberate bid to confuse independence with Brexit".
Polls on a "de facto" referendum
On 23 November 2022, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally hold an independence referendum without the consent of the Westminster Parliament.[2] Following that judgment, the SNP reiterated its intention to campaign in the 2024 United Kingdom general election as a de facto independence referendum. Question asked is stated in notes field.
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey
Since devolution, the annual Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has contained a question on independence.
Respondents are asked Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union
- Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers
- Scotland should remain part of the UK without an elected parliament.
A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? The State of Nationalism in Scotland, detailed the previous responses from this survey by grouping options one and two as "independence", options three and four as "devolution" and option five as "No Parliament".
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Issues around a second independence referendum
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Timing of a second referendum
Separate from the question of how Scots might vote in a hypothetical second referendum is the question of whether there should be a second referendum. Once again the responses vary with exactly how the question is asked. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. | Lead | Notes | |||||||||||||||
In 2023 | Next 12 Months | Next 2 Years | In the next 2–5 years | More than 5 Years | No Referendum | |||||||||||||||
Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | ||||||
8 - 13 Sep 2023 | YouGov | 1,103 | 27% | 62% | 11% | 45% | 43% | 12% | [ag] | |||||||||||
2 - 4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 1,100 | 42% | 42% | 12% | 42% | 40% | 14% | ||||||||||||
5 - 6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 41% | 40% | 15% | 44% | 39% | 13% | ||||||||||||
1 - 2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,030 | 41% | 40% | 12% | 41% | 38% | 14% | ||||||||||||
26 - 29 Jun 2023 | YouGov | 1,100 | 45% | 42% | 13% | [ah] | ||||||||||||||
3 - 5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,466 | 42% | 40% | 13% | 42% | 39% | 15% | ||||||||||||
30 Apr- 2 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1295 | 37% | 47% | 11% | 39% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||||
17-20 Apr 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,032 | 20% | 69% | 12% | 44% | 42% | 14% | ||||||||||||
31 Mar-1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,008 | 41% | 44% | 15% | 43% | 41% | 16% | ||||||||||||
2-5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 34% | 49% | 18% | 37% | 44% | 20% | ||||||||||||
17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov/The Times | 1,017 | 22% | 68% | 10% | 45% | 44% | 11% | ||||||||||||
23-26 Jan 2023 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,088 | 28% | 62% | 10% | 47% | 42% | 10% | ||||||||||||
26-27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 46% | 43% | 11% | 46% | 40% | 14% | ||||||||||||
18–23 May 2022 | YouGov/The Times | 1,115 | 27% | 60% | 13% | 21% | 68% | 11% | 46% | 41% | 13% | |||||||||
26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,009 | 24% | 31% | 45% | 10% | ||||||||||||||
29–31 Mar 2022 | YouGov/These Islands | 1.029 | 36% | 53% | 12% | 17% | ||||||||||||||
18-22 Nov 2021 | YouGov/Times | 1,060 | 34% | 50% | 16% | 28% | 55% | 17% | 44% | 41% | 15% | |||||||||
9-12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,781 | 19% | 34% | 46% | 7% | ||||||||||||||
22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes/Scotsman | 1,005 | 14% | 17% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 48% | [ai] | |||||||||||
18 Sep 2021 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 34% | 50% | 16% | 41% | 42% | 17% | ||||||||||||
6-10 Sept 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 2,003 | 17% | 36% | 47% | 6% | ||||||||||||||
31 Aug–1 Sep 2021 | Survation/Scotland in Union | 1,040 | 38% | 52% | 9% | 14% | ||||||||||||||
4-5 Aug 2021 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,000 | 40% | 47% | 13% | 42% | 40% | 17% | ||||||||||||
16-24 June 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,287 | 19% | 35% | 46% | 8% | ||||||||||||||
28-30 April 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,096 | 22% | 33% | 45% | 10% | ||||||||||||||
30 Mar-1 April 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,009 | 25% | 29% | 46% | 7% | ||||||||||||||
3-5 March 2021 | Panelbase/SundayTimes | 1,013 | 25% | 30% | 45% | 10% |
Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum
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UK-wide polling
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Various companies have polled voters across the entire United Kingdom on various questions surrounding the issue of Scottish independence, from the standard Yes/No question as used in the 2014 referendum, to whether the Scottish government should be allowed to hold a second referendum. The results of these polls are displayed below.
Polls using 2014 referendum question
On the Scottish Government's authority to hold a referendum
Polling on a second referendum
Timing of a Second Independence Referendum
Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Pollsters have asked various questions re when/if next Independence might happen, they have used various timeframes as below. | No Referendum | Lead | Notes | ||||||||||||||
In 2023 | Next 12 Months | Next 2 Years | In the next 2–5 years | More than 5 Years | ||||||||||||||||
Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | Yes | No | D/K | ||||||
18/6 - 2/7/21 | Panelbase/The Sunday Times | 3891 | 18% | 27% | 55% | |||||||||||||||
British Social Attitudes Survey
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See also
Notes
- Yougov advise that this series of polls should not be compared to its usual polling, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/45269-nicola-sturgeons-legacy-according-scots
- Findoutnow stated "This was not a standard indyref voting intention poll so was not adjusted for turnout likelihood. That's why undecideds are up, and others down" https://twitter.com/FindoutnowUK/status/1668263765937102849
- Lord Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council
- Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
- Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held in Scotland on its constitutional future, would you personally prefer Scotland to vote for or against leaving the UK and becoming an independent country??". Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided.
- Savanta ComRes revised their figures in three polls after a weighting error was discovered.
- Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely oppose Scotland becoming an independent country' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming an independent country' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- JL Partners was not a member of the British Polling Council at the time of this poll
- Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to No and Yes here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "On a scale of 0 to 10 where 0 means 'I completely support Scotland becoming independent' and 10 means 'I completely support Scotland staying part of the UK' what number would you consider yourself to be?". Respondents giving answers between 0 to 4 and 6 to 10 have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents giving 5 or "don't know" as answer have been assigned as undecided.
- Non-standard question: Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "In a referendum on independence for Scotland held tomorrow, how would you vote?" and given the options of "For Scotland to become an independent country" and "For Scotland to remain as part of the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
- Question asked: "As you may know, the UK Supreme Court has ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold another independence referendum without the UK Government's agreement. In this case, Nicola Sturgeon has said that the SNP will treat the 2024 UK general election as a "de facto" referendum, campaigning on the single issue of independence. In this scenario, how would you vote in a General Election? /Which party are you most inclined to support?"
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References
External links
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