Peter Zeihan

Peter Henry Zeihan (/ˈzaɪ.ən/; born January 18, 1973) is an American author on geopolitics. He previously worked for the geopolitical advising firm Stratfor.^[1][2][3] Zeihan is the author of several books, including The Absent Superpower (2017), Disunited Nations (2020), and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (2022).^[4][5]

Peter Zeihan
Zeihan in October 2022
Born	(1973-01-18) January 18, 1973 (age 52)
Nationality	American
Occupations	Geopolitical analyst Author
Website	zeihan.com

Early life and education

Zeihan was born in 1973,^[6] and grew up as the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa. He graduated from Marshalltown High School in 1992.^[1] In 1995, he earned a BS in political science at Northeast Missouri State University and in 1997 a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies at the University of Otago in New Zealand.^[7] He also attended the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce.^[8][9]

Career

After completing his education, Zeihan worked for the American embassy in Australia and at the Center for Political and Strategic Studies, a think tank founded by Susan Eisenhower.^{[citation needed]}

Stratfor

In 2000, he joined the Austin, Texas-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor as an analyst, where he worked for 12 years, eventually becoming vice president.^[1][2][3]

Zeihan left Stratfor in 2012 and founded Zeihan on Geopolitics, a consulting firm. His clients have included energy companies, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural organizations, universities, and government entities.^[10]

Writings

While still at Stratfor, Zeihan co-authored his first book, A Crucible of Nations, with Lauren Goodrich in 2011.^{[citation needed]}

In 2014 he released The Accidental Superpower,^[11] which examines the impact of geography on a state's economic, industrial, and military competitiveness. The book discusses the strategic advantages of navigable rivers, ocean access, and transportation infrastructure, alongside demographic projections.^[2][12][13] Using maps, Zeihan discusses the critical importance of navigable rivers, access to oceans, and reliable road and rail networks. The Accidental Superpower also uses demographic calculations of national populations to forecast how different countries will maintain an edge in the geopolitical future.^[14]

Criticism of Zeihan’s analysis

Critics of Peter Zeihan’s analysis argue that while his assessments are supported by strong arguments and data,^[15] they often take a deterministic approach to demographic and geopolitical trends.^[16][17] Some scholars contend that this perspective underestimates other significant factors, such as technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and socio-cultural changes.^[16]

A common critique is that Zeihan’s scenarios assume inevitability, disregarding the unpredictability of global events and technological innovation.^[16]

Some analysts argue that Zeihan does not fully account for factors like increased longevity and productivity, particularly in his assessments of economic and demographic sustainability.^[16] For instance, his projections regarding China’s decline have been criticized for not considering potential reforms in pension systems and government fiscal policies.^[17]

In the 2023 update of his book The Accidental Superpower, Zeihan added an appendix to each chapter of the original 2013 edition, evaluating the accuracy of his earlier predictions. Among other notes, he acknowledged that he underestimated the role of Canadian national identity in Alberta’s political alignment and overestimated Russia’s military capabilities.^[18]

Publications

• Goodrich, Lauren; Zeihan, Peter (2011). A Crucilble of Nations: The Geopolitics of the Caucasus. Austin, TX: Stratfor Global Intelligence. ISBN 9781461109426. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
• The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disaster. Grand Central Publishing. November 4, 2014. ISBN 9781455583669.
• The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World without America. Zeihan on Geopolitics. January 1, 2017. ISBN 9780998505206.
• Disunited Nations: The Scramble for Power in an Ungoverned World. Harper Business. March 3, 2020. ISBN 9780062913685.
• The End of the World is just the Beginning | The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization. Harper Business. June 14, 2022. ISBN 9780063230477.
• Zeihan, Peter (December 26, 2023). The Accidental Superpower: Ten Years On. United States: Twelve (published 2023). ISBN 9781538767344.

See also

• George Friedman, founder of Stratfor