Arctic policy of China

The People's Republic of China (PRC) laid out an official arctic policy in a white paper that was published in 2018, but their engagement in the arctic region started long before this. According to the white paper, their goals are "to understand, protect, develop and participate in the governance of the Arctic, so as to safeguard the common interests of all countries and the international community in the Arctic, and promote sustainable development of the Arctic."^[1][2] The PRC has also focused on developing military projection capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) that would extend into the Arctic region.^[3][4][2]

History

China's engagement in the Arctic dates back to the 1920s, but China remained largely disengaged until the 1990s, when growing awareness of the potential impact climate change could have on China.^[5] Here is a timeline of China's involvement in the Arctic since the 1920s:

In 1925, China signed the Spitsbergen Treaty,^[1] which allows signatories' commercial activities on Svalbard.^[6] Early Chinese media discussion of foreign nuclear missiles over Svalbard broadened in the 1980s to the Arctic's mineral, fishing, and transportation potential.^[6]

In 1949, the People's Republic of China was established, and after this, attention was paid to Antarctica, and only minimal attention was given to the Arctic.^[5]

Some of the earliest scientific involvements are the Polar Research Institute of China of Shanghai, whose initial field research date from the late 1980s, as the well as the creation of the Chinese Journal of Polar Research by the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 1988.^[7] The first expedition took place in 1984 and there have been 26 in total (as of 2011).^[8]

In 1996, China joined the International Arctic Science Committee.^[9]

Since 1999 it has launched a series of research vessels including the Xue Long and Xue Long 2.^[1]

In 2004 China built the Yellow River Station.^[10] Concerns have been raised about potential dual use of the station.^[11][10]

In 2005, China was the first ever country in Asia to host the Arctic Science Summit Week.^[1]

In 2010, Chinese leaders promoted cautious Arctic policies so as to not provoke negative responses from the Arctic states while still trying to position itself to not be excluded from access to the Arctic. China appears particularly wary of Russia's Arctic intentions, noting Russia's decision to resume bomber flights over the Arctic and planting of a Russian flag on the Arctic seabed in August 2007.^[12]

In March, 2012, there was no authoritative statement of policy from the Chinese government on the Arctic, although Chinese scientists and academics increasingly are active in the region, and suggesting policies for the nation.^[13]

In August 2012, Xue Long became the first Chinese vessel to traverse the Northeast Passage.^[14] A second Chinese icebreaker is slated for launch in 2014.^[15]

In May 2013, China becomes an observer of the Arctic Council.^[16]

In 2018, COSCO made eight transits through the Arctic between Europe and China. Several of these were done by the Tian Hui, Tian You and Tian En.^[17]

Since 2018, China's "diplomatic activism" in Greenland has waned due to a heightened scrutiny.^[18]

China's Official Arctic Policy from 2018

In January 2018, China released its official Arctic Policy paper.^[2] This White Paper lays out all their interests, ambitions and goals in the arctic. The White Paper states that China's goals is "to understand, protect, develop and participate in the governance of the Arctic, so as to safeguard the common interests of all countries and the international community in the Arctic, and promote sustainable development of the Arctic».^[1] In this White Paper, China declared itself a "near-Arctic state," though Chinese academics had used the term since at least 2012.^[6][19] China continued with stating that it is the state with "one of the continental States that are closest to the Arctic Circle"^[1] and was "an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs".^[1] Due to its geographical location, China's climate and ecological environment are influenced by the natural conditions of the Arctic, as well as the potential problems that climate change poses to this region.^[1] Climate change would, according to China's White Paper, affect "Chinese interests in strategic economic sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forests".^[20] As a response to this, at the time, the United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated back in 2019 that: "Beijing claims to be a "Near-Arctic State," yet the shortest distance between China and the Arctic is 900 miles. There are only Arctic States and Non-Arctic States. No third category exists, and claiming otherwise entitles China to exactly nothing.".^[21][22][23]

China states that it has, and will continue to respect and abide by international law, and particularly mentions the Charter of the United Nations, UNCLOS, general international law and the Spitsbergen Treaty, as well as all the laws of the Arctic coastal states.^[1] However, they do also mention that there "is no single comprehensive treaty for all Arctic affairs".^[1] This is further proven with this section from their 2018 White Paper:

"States from outside the Arctic region do not have territorial sovereignty in the Arctic, but they do have rights in respect of scientific research, navigation, overflight, fishing, laying of submarine cables and pipelines in the high seas and other relevant sea areas in the Arctic Ocean, and rights to resource exploration and exploitation in the Area, pursuant to treaties such as UNCLOS and general international law".^[1]

This quote was aimed to show that China's engagement in the Arctic is in accordance with international law. China reassures the international community that its intention in the Arctic is not to replace or challenge the existing way that the arctic is governed, but rather to participate and develop the existing order.^[24] In the White Paper China goes more into depth to explain their interests in the region, which can be summed up like this, China is interested in (1) scientific research projects, (2) addressing climate change, (3) protecting the environment and biodiversity, (4) exploring arctic shipping routes, (5) in exploration and exploitation of critical minerals, resources and fisheries, (6) investing in the developing tourism industry, and (7) participating in the governance of the region.^[1]

Meanwhile, the debate among scholars, media and the public is still ongoing as to what China's place in the Arctic is. Some public voices contend that the Arctic belongs to humankind and not to any one country or group of countries.^[9]

China and the Arctic Council

China started to work with the Arctic Council in 2007 by starting to send delegates to the meetings.^[25] At the 2009 ministerial meeting in Tromsø, China requested Permanent Observer status. The request was denied at least partly because members could not agree on the role of Observer States. In 2011, the Arctic Council clarified its criteria for admission of observers, most notably including a requirement of applicants to "recognize Arctic States' sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction in the Arctic" and "recognize that an extensive legal framework applies to the Arctic Ocean including, notably, the Law of the Sea, and that this framework provides a solid foundation for responsible management of this ocean".^[16] China's request was approved at the Kiruna ministerial meeting in May 2013.^[15] Permanent observer status allows access to observe meetings, but not voting rights.^[26]

China has been an active observer in the arctic, for example, they have actively been making informal contributions and having scientists contribute to the working or task groups of the Arctic Council.^[27]  In their White paper from 2018, China recognized the Arctic Council to be the main intergovernmental forum in the Arctic.^[1]

Goals

Interest in Arctic resources

In March 2010, Chinese Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo famously said: "The Arctic belongs to all the people around the world, as no nation has sovereignty over it... China must plan an indispensable role in Arctic exploration".^[28] According to an U.S. geological survey report from 2008, which assessed the undiscovered, and technically recoverable resources north of the arctic circle, which is oil, gas and natural gas liquids. This report revealed that, "for oil and gas the arctic accounts for about 13% of the undiscovered oil, 30% of the undiscovered natural gas, and 20% of the undiscovered natural gas liquids in the world" (USGS, 2008).^[29] Between 88 and 95% of resources in the Arctic fall within one of the five Arctic Ocean coastal states' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ's) and China is unlikely to challenge the provision within the Law of the Sea that creates the EEZ's. China has made this clear in their White Paper from 2018.

China has begun to focus on renewable energy. Almost two-thirds of the world's wind and solar projects that are under construction are  in China.^[30] Li Shuo, who is the director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Policy Institute in Washington DC., said that "China is leading against all of its competitors, when it comes to green technology".^[31] According to Rystad Energy, by 2026 it is expected that solar power will surpass coal as China's most used energy source.^[31] However, more minerals are needed to build clean energy technologies such as wind farms, solar photovoltaic plants, and electric vehicles, than what is needed for their fossil fuel-based counterparts.^[32]

Greenland has significant deposits of many highly sought-after critical minerals, which is becoming increasingly available due to the melting of ice.^[33] China has initiated the start and investment of several projects in Greenland. One of the most prominent examples, the mineral exploration project in Kvanefjeld, where has China has tried to invest.^[34]

Kvanefjeld, located in the Southeast of Greenland, is a mountain which has one of the world's largest deposits of critical minerals.^[35] The company Energy Transition Minerals has long held the right to explore these minerals and decided to collaborate with the Chinese company Shenghe Resources, which has expertise in REE extraction.^[36] However, due to concerns about the radioactive substance uranium can pose to the environment and local populations, the project has been met with much opposition, most notably from the ruling party Inuit Ataqatigiit, which has successfully managed to halt this process.^[35][37] China's desire to extract minerals in Greenland will therefore not be a foregone conclusion. This suggest that China will partner with Arctic nations in resource extraction rather than act alone.^[15] China's near-term Arctic focus is on liquified natural gas, which the region may have 30% of undiscovered supplies of.^[6]

Arctic research

China has been conducting research in the Arctic for decades. China has engaged and initiated a lot of research expeditions, where China started to send scientists to the arctic in the early 1990s to collect data and gain experiences in the region.^[26] In 2004, China founded an Arctic scientific research station, called Yellow River Station in Ny-Ålesund on the Archipelago Spitsbergen of Norway.^[26] As noted in their White Paper, China had "By the end of 2017, China has carried out eight scientific expeditions in the Arctic Ocean, and conducted research for 14 years with the Yellow River Station as the base".^[1]

China's research in the Arctic covers multiple fields, such as "Arctic geology, geography, hydrology, meteorology, sea ice, biology, ecology, geophysics and marine chemistry. It monitors "local climatic and environmental changes" and collects data on "bio-ecological character and environmental quality". It also focuses on constructing "cooperative research (observation) stations" as well as making the icy waters easier to navigate via things like icebreakers.^[1] China spends about as much as South Korea on Arctic research (much more than the United States).^[15]

Xue Long

Xue Long or "Snow Dragon" is one such icebreaker vessel that conducts sundry geoscientific research. Xue Long was built in Ukraine, but China acquired this polar-capable vessel back in the early 1990s and in 1999 it carried out China's first research expedition in the Arctic.^[38][39] Two decades later Xue Long 2 entered service in 2019. This was China's second ice breaker vessel and was also marked as China's first homebuilt icebreaker^[39].

In China's 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) it is stated that some of their ambitions include: (1) «Build new advanced icebreakers», and (2) «Improve Antarctic aviation capabilities».^[40] Furthermore, these new advanced icebreakers may also be nuclear-powered.^[39]

Joint efforts with Iceland

The Polar Research Institute of China in collaboration with Iceland institutions opened the China-Iceland Arctic Science Observatory in northern Iceland.^[17]

Arctic Shipping routes and the "Polar Silk Road"

The Arctic Ocean is expected to become ice-free during summers by 2050, which in turn has opened possibilities not only for arctic states, but also non-arctic states such as China.^[41] Amongst the opportunities that are becoming possible with accelerating climate change is the "Polar Silk Road". China plans to build new shipping routes through the Arctic via the Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road.^[1] It is a joint Chinese-Russian initiative that was launched in 2018^[17] as the "Polar Silk Road", a name first mentioned by a Russian minister at a 2011 meeting. According to China, the "Polar Silk Road" will "bring opportunities"^[1] and "facilitate connectivity and sustainable economic and social development of the Arctic".^[1] The Polar Silk Road encompasses the Northeast Passage, Northwest Passage and Central Passage and connects North America, East Asia and Western Europe.^[24] If the predictions are right, then the Northern Sea Route is expected to be one of the most efficient shipping paths between Asia and Europe by 2050.^[42]

The sea route through the Arctic holds several advantages for China as it is shorter, and the most cost-effective option.^[42] Among Arctic shipping routes, the maritime shipping distance from Shanghai to Hamburg is about 4,000 miles shorter via the Northeast Passage than the southern route through the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal.^[15][16] A long-term goal for China is the Northern Sea Route, which by 2030 may be fully ice free—earlier than the Northwest Passage or Transpolar Sea Route—shortening shipping distance from China to the Netherlands by 23%. The route would reduce China's dependence on the Southern Sea Route, which has several choke points aligned with the United States.^[6] China has the largest foreign embassy in Reykjavik, anticipating Iceland becoming an important transshipment hub.^[43] The route through the Arctic provides freedom from the piracy that exists in the Malacca Strait (sun, 2019).  International sanctions during the Russo-Ukrainian War caused Russia to seek Chinese technological and financial aid to develop the Yamal-Nenets region.^[6]

Chinese Arctic experts have pointed out the limitations of Arctic sea routes, including harsh conditions, more icebergs due to melting of Greenland's icecap, higher insurance premiums, lack of infrastructure and shallow depths.^[9][16]

China has remained neutral on Canada's position that the Northwest Passage is in Canada's internal waters.^[9]

China and Russia

The Arctic holds great importance for Russia, as it is estimated that large amounts of Russia's oil and natural gas reserves are located in this region.^[44] Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 caused the US and European allies to sanction Russia, which caused Russia to need financing to realize their energy and infrastructure development in the Arctic, which is a role that China has filled.^[44] In a speech at the second International Arctic Forum in 2011 by Russia's president Vladimir Putin, he stated that;

"The Northern Sea Route (NSR) occupies a special place here. We are planning to turn it into a key commercial route of global importance. I'd like to emphasise that we see its future as an international transport artery capable of competing with traditional sea routes in cost of services, safety and quality".^[45]

China and Russia collaboration in developing the Polar silk road is based on many common interests.^[46] Russia and China has worked together on multiple other projects as well:

China and Russia decided in 2015 to further strengthen cooperation on satellite navigation.^[46]

Another joint commercial project, "Yamal LNG," that was put into operation in 2017.^[46] The Russian gas producer "Novatek" and the Chinese CNPC had already decided to continue their collaboration for the Arctic LNG-2 project.^[46]

China joined in on Russia's naval and air exercise in the Arctic Ocean in September 2024, which was called Ocean 24. Reportedly, this exercise: «deployed two nuclear submarines under the Arctic polar icecap».^[47]

During the fifth International Arctic Forum in St. Petersburg Russian representatives of the Institute of Oceanology at the Russian Academy of Sciences and representatives from the Chinese Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology agreed to establish the Chinese-Russian Arctic Research Center to conduct joint research projects in the far North. Although Russia and China has continued collaboration of joint expeditions and existing research stations, there is no evidence to suggest the specific research station did no materialize.^[48]

China, which has no borders adjacent to the Arctic Ocean.^[49] As a result, there has been growing concern that the same tactics China has adopted in the South China Sea will be used in the Arctic Ocean as well.^[49] In October 2024, the Chinese Coast Guard vessel was for the first time spotted entering the Arctic in a joint patrol with the Russian coast guard.^[50] In a statement published by China's Ministry of National Defense the intent of this mission was to test the "vessels' ability to carry out missions in unfamiliar maritime areas".^[50] The concern stems from the possibility that Chinese facilities may have dual-use capabilities, serving both civilian and military purposes.^[49]

Reception and international responses

Despite China's efforts to assure the world that they are not going to overstep nor interfere in arctic states' domestic affairs, nonetheless, both the policy-makers and the media in the West have remained skeptical.^[24]

The skepticism is based on several incidents, for example, a statement made in 2010 by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo sparked skepticism saying "The Arctic belongs to all the people around the world as no nation has sovereignty over it. China must play an indispensable role in Arctic exploration as we have one-fifth of the world’s population".^[25][51]

In the speech held by Mike Pompeo at the ministerial meeting in 2019, he stated:

"Do we want crucial Arctic infrastructure to end up like Chinese-constructed roads in Ethiopia, crumbling and dangerous after only a few years? Do we want the Arctic Ocean to transform into a new South China Sea, fraught with militarization and competing territorial claims? Do we want the fragile Arctic environment exposed to the same ecological devastation caused by China's fishing fleet in the seas off its coast, or unregulated industrial activity in its own country?".^[23]

More recently, in a speech held by the Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, at the 2024 Arctic Circle Assembly, he mentioned China's and Russia's joint deployment of China's Coast Guard vessels and Russian ships into the Arctic, and he noted that he was called paranoid and arrogant by the Chinese Ambassador to Iceland when he predicted that China would start to enter the arctic two years prior.^[47] The Admiral expressed his concern about the close cooperation between Russia and China that has been observed in relation to the Arctic.

The current US president, Donald J. Trump, mentioned in a Mar-a-Lago news conference on January 7, 2025, that control over Greenland and the Panama control is important for both the security of the United States as well as for international security. Trump defended his position that this was a necessity by mentioning that: "You have Russian boats all over the place, you have China's boats all over the place — warships — and they [Denmark] can't maintain it.".^[52]

See also

• Silk Road Economic Belt
• Arctic cooperation and politics
• Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration
• Polar Research Institute of China
• Arctic Yellow River Station
• Arctic Council