Projected National Share

Projected National Share (PNS) is a statistic used in British politics. It refers to the translation of local election results to reflect national party support in a future general election.^[1] PNS shows which party has won a local election.^[2] The numbers give an impression of how the political parties are faring if the entire country cast a local ballot.^[3] It can be calculated in different ways.^[4]

History

BBC News has calculated PNS since 1982.^[5] They use key wards which are reflective of the country as a whole in order to calculate party share.^[6] Two academics at the University of Plymouth, Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, calculate National Equivalent share (NEV) using a different approach.^[7][8]

Author and peer Mark Pack maintains a historical record named LocalBase of both sets of results.^[7][9]

By local election

Election	Lab	Con	Lib Dem	Other*	UKIP	Ref	Grn	Ref.
2016	31	30	15	—	12	—	—	[10]
2022	35	30	19	16	—	—	—	[11]
2023	35	26	20	19	—	—	—	[12]
2024	34	25	17	24	—	—	—	[13]
2025	20	15	17	7	—	30	11	[14][15]

*Independents, residents associations and minor parties