Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini (Arabic: نوريل روبيني; born March 29, 1958) is a Turkish-born Iranian-American economic consultant, economist, speaker, and writer. He is a professor emeritus since 2021 at the Stern School of Business of New York University. Roubini earned a BA in political economics at Bocconi University in Italy and a doctorate in international economics at Harvard University. He was an academic at Yale and a researcher/advisor researching emerging markets.

Nouriel Roubini
Born	(1958-03-29) March 29, 1958 (age 67) Istanbul, Turkey
Nationality	Iranian-American
Academic background
Alma mater	Bocconi University (B.A.) Harvard University (Ph.D.)
Influences	Jeffrey Sachs Larry Summers
Academic work
Discipline	Economics
Institutions	New York University
Website	https://nourielroubini.com/ Information at IDEAS / RePEc

During the Bill Clinton administration in the 1990s, Roubini was for one year a senior economist in the Council of Economic Advisers. He correctly predicted the subprime mortgage crisis and the ensuing Great Recession, and warned that the COVID-19 recession could be even worse. Roubini is also critic of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Early life

Roubini was born on March 29, 1958,^[1] in Istanbul, Turkey, to Iranian Jewish parents.^[2][3][4] When he was one year old, his family lived briefly in Tehran, Iran.^[4] When he was three years old, the family moved to Tel Aviv, Israel.^[4] From 1963 when he was five years old to 1983, he lived in Italy, primarily in Milan. He later attended the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel where he completed a one-year program of undergraduate studies, in 1976–1977.^[5] He subsequently attended Bocconi University in Italy, earning a B.A. (1982) summa cum laude in economics, and in 2009 was named Bocconian of the Year.^[6] He received a PhD in international economics in 1988 from Harvard University, where his adviser was Jeffrey Sachs.^[2]

Career

For much of the 1990s, Roubini taught at Yale and then in New York, while also working for stints at the International Monetary Fund (briefly as a summer intern and visiting scholar),^[7][8] and World Bank (briefly as a consultant).^[8][7] In 1998–1999, he worked for one year in the Clinton administration as a senior economist in the Council of Economic Advisers.^[4] He worked from July to October 1999 at the U.S. Treasury Department as a senior adviser to Timothy Geithner (who was then the undersecretary for international affairs), and from October 1999 to June 2000 was director of its Office of Policy Development and Review.^[9][4]

Roubini returned to the International Monetary Fund for July through August 2001 as a visiting scholar.^[10] He co-wrote Bailouts or Bail-ins?, a book on saving bankrupt economies,^[11] wrote MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them, and started a several economic firms. He said: "One person who has had a great impact on me intellectually was Jeffrey Sachs... Another ... is Larry Summers, the former President of Harvard."^[12] In 2021, he became a professor emeritus at the Stern School of Business at New York University.^[13]

Predictions

In 2006, Roubini warned that a housing bust would trigger a global banking crisis and deep recession within a few years. U.S. subprime collapse spread through the financial system; the 2008 financial crisis ensued,^[14] and as a result he was known as Dr. Doom.^[15] In 2020, he argued the COVID-19-related recession would produce a slump "deeper than 2008" unless policy action was swift. The World Bank soon confirmed the worst global contraction since World War II (–5.2 % GDP in 2020).^[16][17] In 2021, he warned that post‑COVID-19 pandemic supply shocks plus loose policy could bring a stagflationary decade. Inflation in advanced economies shot to multi‑decade highs (U.S. CPI 6.8 % y/y by December 2021) and growth slowed, reviving stagflation talk.^[18][19]

In 2022, Roubini predicted ten large‑scale, mutually‑reinforcing dangers that he argues could collide over the next decade if policymakers were to stay on their track stressing the inter‑connection, highlighting that addressing each in isolation would not work.^[20][21] First is the "Mother‑of‑All" debt crisis as public‑ and private‑sector would leverage above 350% of global GDP and sovereigns, households, and firms would all be over‑levered. As of May 2025, global public debt was rising in 80 % of economies and with no policies change could top 100 % of world GDP by 2030.^[22] Second is the "Ultra‑Easy Money & Boom‑Bust Cycles" that would keep inflating asset bubbles. As of April 2025, the zero‑rate era was over, but its legacy endured as debt‑service costs soared while growth stayed sub‑par; even advanced‑economy central banks cautioned that "elevated rates amid record debt weigh on activity".^[23] Third is "Demographic Time‑Bombs" as ageing populations would shrink workforces and strain pensions. As of 2024, the United Nations data confirmed the working‑age share was already shrinking in a quarter of countries while global life expectancy kept climbing, straining pension systems.^[24]

Roubin fourth's prediction is a "Long Stretch of Stagflation" with weak growth and stubborn inflation after repeated supply shocks. As of March 2025, growth slowed to ~2.8 % while core services inflation proved sticky, prompting the OECD to flag a "stagflation‐style" risk.^[25] Fifth is "Currency and Monetary‑System Turmoil" as cryptocurrencies, CBDCs, and the waning U.S. dollar challenged the established order. As of July 2025, 72 countries were building or running CBDCs, BRICS talked up local‑currency trade, and Washington banned a digital‑dollar pilot—potentially ceding ground abroad.^[26] Sixth is "Deglobalization and Weaponized Trade" that would splinter supply chains. As of January 2025, the United States Japan, and the Netherlands steadily expanded export controls on advanced chip equipment, while China vowed retaliation and doubled down on self‑reliance.^[27]

Roubin's seventh prediction is "AI‑ and Automation‑Driven Job Disruption" on an unprecedented scale. As of April 2025, Goldman Sachs estimated up to 50 % of jobs could be fully automated by 2045 as generative AI continued to spread, while a 2024 Pew Research Center report observed that 30 percent of media jobs could be automated by 2035.^[28] Eight is "Great‑Power and Regional (Proxy) Conflicts (U.S.–China, Russia–NATO, Middle East, cyber‑warfare)". As of July 2025, U.S.–China tensions remained high as South China Sea collisions continued and a possible summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping was framed as crisis‑management, not détente.^[29][30] Ninth is "Climate Catastrophe" and related resource stress. As of July 2025, Europe and China were enduring record‑breaking July heatwaves, with temperatures above 46 °C and thousands of excess deaths; grid stress and wildfire losses also soared.^[31][32] Tenth is "Pandemics & Other Natural Mega‑Shocks" that would amplify every other threat. As of July 2025, World Health Organization logged fresh human H5N1 bird‑flu cases, reminding policymakers that zoonotic spill‑over risks remain elevated.^[33]

Bitcoin and cryptocurrency

Roubini is a frequent critic of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, stating in 2018 at a cryptocurrencies panel of the Milken Institute Global Conference: "All this talk of decentralization is just bullsh*t."^[15] At the Asia Blockchain Summit in 2019, he held a debate with BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, whom he called at one point a "sleazy coward".^[34]

Consulting businesses

In 2005, Roubini co-founded Roubini Global Economics, a small economic consultancy for financial analysis.^[35][36] In 2017, he founded Roubini Macro Associates, a global macroeconomic consultancy firm in New York,^[37] and co-founded Rosa & Roubini Associates.^[38] In 2021, he co-founded Atlas Capital Team LP.^[39]

Personal life

Roubini speaks English, Persian, Italian, Hebrew, and conversational French.^[3] He is a U.S. citizen,^[3] and is identified as a Democrat in his profile on Wall Street Economists.^[40]

Writings

• Roubini, Nouriel; Alesina, Alberto; Cohen, Gerald D. (November 14, 1997). Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. The MIT Press. ISBN 978-0-262-51094-3.
• Roubini, Nouriel; Setzer, Brad (August 2004). Bailouts or Bail-Ins: Responding to Financial Crises in Emerging Economies. Peterson Institute. ISBN 978-0-88132-371-9.
• Roubini, Nouriel; Uzan, Marc, eds. (February 28, 2006). New International Financial Architecture. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN 978-1-84376-808-1. OCLC 61479639.
• Roubini, Nouriel (2010). Crisis Economics: A Crash Course in the Future of Finance. Penguin Press. ISBN 978-1-10142-742-2.
• Roubini, Nouriel (2022). MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them. Little Brown. ISBN 978-0-31628-434-9.