Russian annexation of Crimea (2014)

In late February 2014, Russia began to occupy Crimea, marking the beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian War.^[51]^[52]^[53]^[54] On 22 and 23 February, in the relative power vacuum immediately after the ousting of Yanukovych,^[55] Russian troops and special forces were moved close to the border with Crimea.^[53] On 27 February, Russian forces without insignia began to occupy Crimea.^[56]^[57] Russia consistently denied that the soldiers were theirs, instead claiming they were local "self-defense" units. They seized the Crimean parliament and government buildings, as well as setting up checkpoints to restrict movement and cut off the Crimean peninsula from the rest of Ukraine.^[58]^[59]^[60]^[61] In the following days, unmarked Russian special forces occupied airports and communications centers,^[62] and blockaded Ukrainian military bases, such as the Southern Naval Base. Russian cyberattacks shut down websites associated with the Ukrainian government, news media, and social media. Cyberattacks also enabled Russian access to the mobile phones of Ukrainian officials and members of parliament, further disrupting communications.^[63] On 1 March, the Russian parliament approved the use of armed forces in Crimea.^[62]

While Russian special forces occupied Crimea's parliament, it dismissed the Crimean government, installed the pro-Russian Aksyonov government, and announced a referendum on Crimea's status. The referendum was held under Russian occupation and, according to the Russian-installed authorities, the result was in favor of joining Russia. It annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014. Following this, Russian forces seized Ukrainian military bases in Crimea and captured their personnel. On 24 March, Ukraine ordered its remaining troops to withdraw; by 30 March, all Ukrainian forces had left the peninsula.^{[citation needed]}

On 15 April, the Ukrainian parliament declared Crimea a territory temporarily occupied by Russia.^[64] After the annexation, the Russian government militarized the peninsula and made nuclear threats.^[65] Putin said that a Russian military task force would be established in Crimea.^[66] In November, NATO stated that it believed Russia was deploying nuclear-capable weapons to Crimea.^[67] After the annexation of Crimea, some NATO members began providing training for the Ukrainian army.^[68]

War in the Donbas (2014–2015)

In April 2014, the anti-government protests in the Donbas developed into armed conflict between Russian-backed separatists and Ukraine. Russian citizens with links to its security forces had taken control of the separatist movement by this stage. Russia deployed its military near Ukraine's eastern border in late March, reaching 30,000–40,000 troops in early April.^[69]^[40] This buildup was used to threaten escalation and hinder Ukraine's response,^[40] forcing Ukraine to divert its military to its borders instead of the Donbas.^[40]

First months of the war

On 12 April 2014, a fifty-man unit of pro-Russian militants seized the towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.^[47] The heavily armed men were Russian Armed Forces "volunteers" under the command of former GRU colonel Igor Girkin ('Strelkov').^[47]^[70] They had been sent from Russian-occupied Crimea and wore no insignia.^[47] Girkin said that this action sparked the Donbas War. He said "I'm the one who pulled the trigger of war. If our unit hadn't crossed the border, everything would have fizzled out", as it had in Kharkiv and Odesa.^[71]^[72]^[73]

The separatists were supported by volunteers and materiel from Russia, including Chechen and Cossack fighters.^[74]^[75]^[76]^[77] Putin gave legitimacy to the separatists when he described the Donbas as part of the historical imperial territory of "New Russia" (Novorossiya), and suggested it should never have become part of Ukraine.^[78] The separatists then began attempting to create a new entity named "Novorossiya".^[79]^[80]

In response, on 15 April the interim Ukrainian government launched an "Anti-Terrorist Operation" (ATO); however, Ukrainian forces were poorly prepared and ill-positioned and the operation quickly stalled.^[81] By the end of April, Ukraine announced it had lost control of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. It claimed to be on "full combat alert" against a possible Russian invasion and reinstated conscription to its armed forces.^[82] During May, the Ukrainian campaign focused on containing the separatists by securing key positions around the ATO zone to position the military for a decisive offensive once Ukraine's national mobilization had completed.^{[citation needed]}

As conflict between the separatists and the Ukrainian government escalated in May, Russia began to employ a "hybrid approach", combining disinformation tactics, irregular fighters, regular Russian troops, and conventional military support.^[83]^[84]^[85] The First Battle of Donetsk Airport followed the Ukrainian presidential elections. It marked a turning point in conflict; it was the first battle between the separatists and the Ukrainian government that involved large numbers of Russian "volunteers".^[86]^[87]^: 15 According to Ukraine, at the height of the conflict in the summer of 2014, Russian paramilitaries made up between 15% and 80% of the combatants.^[76]

The separatist groups held disputed referendums in May,^[88]^[89]^[90] which were not recognized by Ukraine or any other UN member state.^[88]

On 17 July 2014, Russian-controlled forces shot down a passenger aircraft, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, as it was flying over eastern Ukraine.^[91] Investigations and the recovery of bodies began in the conflict zone as fighting continued.^[92]^[93]^[94]

By the end of July, Ukrainian forces were pushing into cities, to cut off supply routes between the two, isolating Donetsk and attempting to restore control of the Russo-Ukrainian border. By 28 July, the strategic heights of Savur-Mohyla were under Ukrainian control, along with the town of Debaltseve, an important railroad hub.^[95] These operational successes of Ukrainian forces threatened the existence of the DPR and LPR statelets, prompting Russian cross-border shelling targeted at Ukrainian troops on their own soil, from mid-July onwards.^[96]

August 2014 Russian invasion

By August 2014, Ukrainian forces had regained a lot of the territory seized by the separatists.^[97] Igor Girkin ('Strelkov') urged direct Russian military intervention, and said that the combat inexperience of his irregular forces, along with recruitment difficulties amongst the local population, had caused the setbacks. He stated, "Losing this war on the territory that President Vladimir Putin personally named New Russia would threaten the Kremlin's power and, personally, the power of the president".^[98] Strelkov said that in early August, Russian soldiers, supposedly on "vacation" from the army, began to arrive in Donbas.^[99] According to Nikolai Mitrokhin's estimates, by mid-August 2014 during the Battle of Ilovaisk, between 20,000 and 25,000 troops were fighting in the Donbas on the separatist side, and only 40–45% were "locals".^[100]

Russia dispatched what it called a "humanitarian convoy" of trucks across the border on 22 August 2014. Ukraine's security service called this a "direct invasion" and said the trucks were being used to move weapons and bring the bodies of Russian soldiers out of Ukraine.^[101]

Russia then began a more direct invasion of the Donbas.^[97]^[102] On 24 August 2014, Amvrosiivka was occupied by Russian paratroopers,^[103] supported by 250 armoured vehicles and artillery pieces.^[104] On 25 August, a column of Russian military vehicles was reported to have crossed into Ukraine near Novoazovsk on the Azov sea coast. It appeared headed towards Ukrainian-held Mariupol,^[105]^[106]^[107]^[108]^[109] in an area that had not seen pro-Russian presence for weeks.^[110] The following day, the Russian Defence Ministry said these soldiers had crossed the border "by accident".^[111]^[112]^[113] Russian troops captured Novoazovsk^[114] and began deporting Ukrainians who did not have an address registered within the town.^[115] Pro-Ukrainian anti-war protests took place in Mariupol.^[115]^[116] The UN Security Council called an emergency meeting.^[117]

The Pskov-based 76th Guards Air Assault Division allegedly entered Ukrainian territory in August and engaged in a skirmish near Luhansk,^[118]^[119] suffering 70–80 dead.^[120] The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said that they had seized two of the unit's armoured vehicles near Luhansk, and reported destroying another three tanks and two armoured vehicles in other regions.^[121]

The speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament and Russian state television channels acknowledged that Russian soldiers were in Ukraine, but referred to them as "volunteers" fighting for the "Russian world".^[122]^[123] A reporter for Novaya Gazeta, an opposition newspaper in Russia, stated that the Russian military leadership paid soldiers to resign their commissions and fight in Ukraine in the early summer of 2014, and then began ordering soldiers into Ukraine.^[124] Russian opposition MP Lev Shlosberg made similar statements, although he said they were "regular Russian troops", disguised as units of the DPR and LPR.^[125]

Mariupol offensive and first Minsk ceasefire

On 3 September, Poroshenko said he and Putin had reached a "permanent ceasefire" agreement.^[126] Russia denied this, denying that it was a party to the conflict, adding that "they only discussed how to settle the conflict".^[127]^[128] Poroshenko then recanted.^[129]^[130] On 5 September Russia's Permanent OSCE Representative Andrey Kelin, said that it was natural that pro-Russian separatists "are going to liberate" Mariupol. Ukrainian forces stated that Russian intelligence groups had been spotted in the area. Kelin said 'there might be volunteers over there.'^[131] On 4 September 2014, a NATO officer said that several thousand regular Russian forces were operating in Ukraine.^[132]

On 5 September 2014, the Minsk Protocol ceasefire agreement drew a line of demarcation between Ukraine and separatist-controlled portions of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

End of 2014 and Minsk II agreement

On 7 and 12 November, NATO officials reconfirmed the Russian presence, citing 32 tanks, 16 howitzer cannons and 30 trucks of troops entering the country.^[133] US general Philip M. Breedlove said "Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defence systems and Russian combat troops" had been sighted.^[67]^[134] NATO said it had seen an increase in Russian tanks, artillery pieces and other heavy military equipment in Ukraine and renewed its call for Moscow to withdraw its forces.^[135] The Chicago Council on Global Affairs stated that Russian separatists enjoyed technical advantages over the Ukrainian army since the large inflow of advanced military systems in mid-2014: effective anti-aircraft weapons ("Buk", MANPADS) suppressed Ukrainian air strikes, Russian drones provided intelligence, and Russian secure communications system disrupted Ukrainian communications intelligence. The Russian side employed electronic warfare systems that Ukraine lacked. Similar conclusions about the technical advantage of the Russian separatists were voiced by the Conflict Studies Research Centre.^[136] At the United Nations Security Council meeting on 12 November, the United Kingdom's representative accused Russia of intentionally constraining OSCE observation missions' capabilities, stating that the observers were allowed to monitor only two kilometers of border, and drones deployed to extend their capabilities were jammed or shot down.^[137]^{[non-primary source needed]}

In January 2015, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Mariupol represented the three battle fronts.^[139] Poroshenko described a dangerous escalation on 21 January amid reports of more than 2,000 additional Russian troops, 200 tanks and armed personnel carriers crossing the border. He abbreviated his visit to the World Economic Forum because of his concerns.^[140]

A new package of measures to end the conflict, known as Minsk II, was agreed on 15 February 2015.^[141] On 18 February, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Debatlseve, in the last high-intensity battle of the Donbas war until 2022. In September 2015 the United Nations Human Rights Office estimated that 8,000 casualties had resulted from the conflict in eastern Ukraine.^[142]

Line of conflict stabilizes (2015–2022)

After the Minsk agreements, there were few changes in territorial control, while the war settled into static trench warfare around the agreed line of contact, marked by artillery duels and special forces operations. Hostilities never ceased for a substantial period of time, but continued at a low level despite repeated attempts at ceasefire. Both sides began fortifying their position by building networks of trenches, bunkers and tunnels.^[143]^[144] The relatively static conflict was labelled "frozen" by some,^[145] though fighting never completely stopped.^[146]^[147] Between 2014 and 2022 there were 29 ceasefires, each agreed to remain in force indefinitely. However, none of them lasted more than two weeks.^[148]

US and international officials continued to report the active presence of Russian military in eastern Ukraine, including in the Debaltseve area.^[149] In 2015, Russian separatist forces were estimated to number around 36,000 troops (compared to 34,000 Ukrainian), of whom 8,500–10,000 were Russian soldiers. Additionally, around 1,000 GRU troops were operating in the area.^[150] Another 2015 estimate held that Ukrainian forces outnumbered Russian forces 40,000 to 20,000.^[151] In 2017, on average one Ukrainian soldier died in combat every three days,^[152] with an estimated 6,000 Russian and 40,000 separatist troops in the region.^[153]^[154]

Cases of killed and wounded Russian soldiers were discussed in local Russian media.^[155] Recruiting for Donbas was performed openly via veteran and paramilitary organisations. Vladimir Yefimov, leader of one such organisation, explained how the process worked in the Ural area. The organisation recruited mostly army veterans, but also policemen, firefighters etc. with military experience. The cost of equipping one volunteer was estimated at 350,000 rubles (around $6500) plus salary of 60,000 to 240,000 rubles per month.^[156] The recruits received weapons only after arriving in the conflict zone. Often, Russian troops traveled disguised as Red Cross personnel.^[157]^[158]^[159]^[160] Igor Trunov, head of the Russian Red Cross in Moscow, condemned these convoys, saying they complicated humanitarian aid delivery.^[161] Russia refused to allow OSCE to expand its mission beyond two border crossings.^[162]

The volunteers were issued a document claiming that their participation was limited to "offering humanitarian help" to avoid Russian mercenary laws. Russia's anti-mercenary legislation defined a mercenary as someone who "takes part [in fighting] with aims counter to the interests of the Russian Federation".^[156]

In August 2016, the Ukrainian intelligence service, the SBU, published telephone intercepts from 2014 of Sergey Glazyev (Russian presidential adviser), Konstantin Zatulin, and other people in which they discussed covert funding of pro-Russian activists in Eastern Ukraine, the occupation of administration buildings and other actions that triggered the conflict.^[163] As early as February 2014, Glazyev gave direct instructions to various pro-Russian parties on how to take over local administration offices, what to do afterwards, how to formulate demands, and promised support from Russia, including "sending our guys".^[164]^[165]^[166]

2018 Kerch Strait incident

Russia had gained de facto control of the Kerch Strait in 2014 with the capture of Crimea. In 2017, Ukraine appealed to a court of arbitration over the use of the strait. By 2018 Russia had built a bridge over the strait, limiting the size of ships that could pass through, imposed new regulations, and repeatedly detained Ukrainian vessels.^[167] On 25 November 2018, three Ukrainian boats traveling from Odesa to Mariupol were seized by Russian warships; 24 Ukrainian sailors were detained.^[168]^[169] A day later on 26 November, the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly backed the imposition of martial law along Ukraine's coastal regions and those bordering Russia.^[170]

2019–2020

More than 110 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the conflict in 2019.^[171] In May 2019, newly elected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took office promising to end the war in Donbas.^[171] In December 2019, Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists began swapping prisoners of war. Around 200 prisoners were exchanged on 29 December 2019.^[172]^[173]^[174]^[175] In December 2019 Ukraine and Russia agreed to implement a ceasefire. The two sides agreed to swap prisoners of war and disengage military forces in several regions. According to Zelenskyy there was also progress with the issue of gas exports. Russia and Ukraine could not agree on the issues of the withdrawal of Russian-backed troops and the elections in the separatist-held regions.^[176]

According to Ukrainian authorities, 50 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in 2020.^[177] Between 2019 and 2021, Russia issued over 650,000 internal Russian passports to Ukrainians.^[178]^[179] There were 27 conflict-related civilian deaths in 2019, 26 deaths in 2020, and 25 deaths in 2021, over half of them from mines and unexploded ordnance.^[180]

Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022)

Prelude

From March to April 2021, Russia commenced a major military build-up near the border, followed by a second build-up between October 2021 to February 2022 in Russia and Belarus.^[181] Throughout, the Russian government repeatedly denied it had plans to attack Ukraine.^[182]^[183]

In early December 2021, following Russian denials, the US released intelligence of Russian invasion plans, including satellite photographs showing Russian troops and equipment near the border.^[184] The intelligence reported a Russian list of key sites and individuals to be killed or neutralized.^[185] The US released multiple reports that accurately predicted the invasion plans.^[185]

In the months preceding the invasion, Russian officials accused Ukraine of inciting tensions, Russophobia, and repressing Russian speakers. They made multiple security demands of Ukraine, NATO, and other EU countries. On 9 December 2021 Putin said that "Russophobia is a first step towards genocide".^[186]^[187] Putin's claims were dismissed by the international community,^[188] and Russian claims of genocide were rejected as baseless.^[189]^[190]^[191] In a 21 February speech,^[192] Putin questioned the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state, repeating an inaccurate claim that "Ukraine never had a tradition of genuine statehood".^[193] He incorrectly stated that Vladimir Lenin had created Ukraine, by carving a separate Soviet Republic out of what Putin said was Russian land, and that Nikita Khrushchev "took Crimea away from Russia for some reason and gave it to Ukraine" in 1954.^[194]

During the second build-up, the Russian government demanded NATO end all activity in its Eastern European member states and ban Ukraine or any former Soviet state from ever joining NATO, among other demands.^[196] A treaty to prevent Ukraine joining NATO would go against the alliance's "open door" policy and the right of countries to choose their own security,^[197] although NATO had made no progress on Ukraine's requests to join.^[198] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg replied that "Russia has no say" on whether Ukraine joins, and that "Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors".^[199] NATO offered to improve communication with Russia and discuss limits on missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine's borders,^[200] but Russia did not withdraw.

Escalation

Fighting in Donbas escalated significantly from 17 February 2022 onwards.^[201] The Ukrainians and the pro-Russian separatists each accused the other of attacks.^[202]^[203] There was a sharp increase in artillery shelling by the Russian-led militants in Donbas, which was considered by Ukraine and its supporters to be an attempt to provoke the Ukrainian army or create a pretext for invasion.^[204]^[205]^[206] On 18 February, the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics ordered mandatory emergency evacuations of civilians from their respective capital cities,^[207]^[208]^[209] although observers noted that full evacuations would take months.^[210] The Russian government intensified its disinformation campaign, with Russian state media promoting fabricated videos (false flags) on a nearly hourly basis purporting to show Ukrainian forces attacking Russia.^[211] Many of the disinformation videos were amateurish, and evidence showed that the claimed attacks, explosions, and evacuations in Donbas were staged by Russia.^[211]^[212]^[213]

Putin's address to the nation on 21 February (English subtitles available)

On 21 February at 22:35 (UTC+3),^[214] Putin announced that the Russian government would diplomatically recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics.^[215] The same evening, Putin directed that Russian troops deploy into Donbas, in what Russia referred to as a "peacekeeping mission".^[216]^[217] On 22 February, the Federation Council unanimously authorised Putin to use military force outside Russia.^[218] In response, Zelenskyy ordered the conscription of army reservists;^[219] The following day, Ukraine's parliament proclaimed a 30-day nationwide state of emergency and ordered the mobilisation of all reservists.^[220]^[221]^[222] Russia began to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv.^[223]

On the night of 23 February,^[224] Zelenskyy gave a speech in Russian in which he appealed to the citizens of Russia to prevent war.^[225]^[226] He rejected Russia's claims about neo-Nazis and stated that he had no intention of attacking the Donbas.^[227] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on 23 February that the separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk had sent a letter to Putin stating that Ukrainian shelling had caused civilian deaths and appealing for military support.^[228]

Full-scale invasion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on the morning of 24 February 2022,^[229] when Putin announced a "special military operation" to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine.^[230]^[231] Minutes later, missiles and airstrikes hit across Ukraine, including Kyiv, shortly followed by a large ground invasion along multiple fronts.^[232]^[233] Zelenskyy declared martial law and a general mobilisation of all male Ukrainian citizens between 18 and 60, who were banned from leaving the country.^[234]^[235]

Russian attacks were initially launched on a northern front from Belarus towards Kyiv, a southern front from Crimea, and a south-eastern front from Luhansk and Donetsk and towards Kharkiv.^[236]^[237] In the northern front, amidst heavy losses and strong Ukrainian resistance surrounding Kyiv, Russia's advance stalled in March, and by April its troops retreated. On 8 April, Russia placed its forces in southern and eastern Ukraine under the command of General Aleksandr Dvornikov, and some units withdrawn from the north were redeployed to the Donbas.^[238] On 19 April, Russia launched a renewed attack across a 500 kilometres (300 mi) long front extending from Kharkiv to Donetsk and Luhansk.^[239] By 13 May, a Ukraine counter-offensive had driven back Russian forces near Kharkiv. By 20 May, Mariupol fell to Russian troops following a prolonged siege of the Azovstal steel works.^[240]^[241] Russian forces continued to bomb both military and civilian targets far from the frontline.^[242]^[243] The war caused the largest refugee and humanitarian crisis within Europe since the Yugoslav Wars in the 1990s;^[244]^[245] the UN described it as the fastest-growing such crisis since World War II.^[246] In the first week of the invasion, the UN reported over a million refugees had fled Ukraine; this subsequently rose to over 7,405,590 by 24 September, a reduction from over eight million due to some refugees' return.^[247]^[248]

The invasion was internationally condemned as a war of aggression.^[249]^[250] A United Nations General Assembly resolution demanded a full withdrawal of Russian forces, the International Court of Justice ordered Russia to suspend military operations and the Council of Europe expelled Russia. Many countries imposed new sanctions, which affected the economies of Russia and the world,^[251] and provided humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine.^[252] In September 2022, Putin signed a law that would punish anyone who resists conscription with a 10-year prison sentence^[253] resulting in an international push to allow asylum for Russians fleeing conscription.^[254]

Ukrainian counteroffensives and stalemate (2022–2023)

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Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives in the south in August 2022, and in the northeast in September 2022. On 30 September, Russia annexed four oblasts of Ukraine which it had partially conquered during the invasion.^[255] This annexation was generally unrecognized and condemned by the countries of the world.^[256] After Putin announced that he would begin conscription drawn from the 300,000 citizens with military training and potentially the pool of about 25 million Russians who could be eligible for conscription, one-way tickets out of the country nearly or completely sold out.^[257]^[258] The Ukrainian offensive in the northeast successfully recaptured the majority of Kharkiv Oblast in September. In the course of the southern counteroffensive, Ukraine retook the city of Kherson in November and Russian forces withdrew to the east bank of the Dnieper River.^[259]

As of August 2023, the total number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded during the Russian invasion of Ukraine was nearly 500,000.^[260] In November 2023, the UN said that more than 10,000 civilians had been killed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with about half the deaths in the three months prior to the report taking place far behind the front lines. The UN attributed the deaths far behind the front to Russian use of long-range missiles and explosions of abandoned ordinance.^[261] According to a declassified US intelligence assessment, as of December 2023, Russia had lost 315,000 of the 360,000 troops that made up Russia's pre-invasion ground force, and 2,200 of the 3,500 tanks.^[262]

Russian campaigns and Ukrainian Kursk offensive (1 December 2023 – present)

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Between December 2023 and May 2024, Russia was assessed to have increased its drone and missile attacks, firing harder-to-hit weapons, such as ballistic missiles.^[263] By the same measure, Ukraine forces were seen to be low on ammunition, particularly the Patriot systems that have been "its best defense against such attacks".^[263]

In August 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast and, as reported by the Ukrainian side, in a few days captured an area of up to 350 square kilometers.^[264] By 19 August, Ukraine had captured hundreds of Russian soldiers during the incursion.^[265]

In late October 2024, the US said it had seen evidence that North Korea had sent 3,000 soldiers to Russia for possible deployment to Ukraine. On 28 October, NATO chief Mark Rutte confirmed earlier Ukrainian intelligence that North Korean troops had been deployed to Kursk Oblast, and the Pentagon reported an increased number of 10,000 North Korean soldiers sent to train in Russia and fight in the war.^[266]^[267]^[268] On 13 November, both the US and South Korea confirmed that North Korean troops had begun engaging in combat against Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region.^[269]^[270]^[271]