2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.

2020 United States Senate election in Virginia

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →

Nominee Mark Warner Daniel Gade Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,466,500 1,934,199 Percentage 55.99% 43.91%

County and independent city results Congressional district results Precinct results Warner:      20–30%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Gade:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election Mark Warner Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Mark Warner Democratic

Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania.^[1]

Background

Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former Governor Jim Gilmore.^[2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election by a margin of 0.8% against former chair of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie.^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. senator^[4][5][6]

Republican primary

Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.^[7][8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.^[9] The primary was on June 23.

Candidates

Nominee

• Daniel Gade, college professor and U.S. Army veteran^[10]

Eliminated in primary

• Alissa Baldwin, teacher^[11]
• Thomas Speciale, U.S. Army veteran and intelligence officer^[12]

Failed to qualify

• Blaine Dunn, Frederick County supervisor^[13]
• Omari Faulkner, Navy reservist and former Georgetown University basketball player^[14][9]
• Roger Franklin^[15]
• Victor Williams, attorney and activist^[16]

Withdrawn

• Gary Adkins, financial executive^[17]
• John Easley, Republican candidate for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2020^[18][19]
• Scott Taylor, former U.S. representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district^[20] (running for his former House seat)

Declined

• Nick Freitas, state delegate and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (running for U.S. House)^[21]
• Corey Stewart, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors^[22][23]

Endorsements

Daniel Gade

National party officials

• Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee^[24]

U.S. representatives

• Randy Forbes, former (VA-04)^[25]
• Elise Stefanik (NY-21)^[25]
• Scott Rigell, former (VA-02)^[24]

State senators

• Bill Carrico, former (40)^[24]
• Richard Stuart (28)^[26]
• Jill Vogel (27)^[25]

State delegates

• Terry Kilgore (1)^[26]
• Wendell Walker (23)^[24]

Individuals

• Don Bolduc, brigadier general and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire^[24]
• E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist^[24]

Results

Results by county and independent city:

  Gade

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   90–100%

Republican primary results^[27]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Daniel Gade	208,754	67.40%
	Republican	Alissa Baldwin	56,165	18.13%
	Republican	Thomas Speciale	44,795	14.46%
Total votes			309,714	100.0%

Independents

Withdrawn

• Mary Knapp^[28][29][30]
• Aldous Mina, Peace Corps veteran^[28][30]

General election

Virginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie six years earlier was considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to this election being held concurrently with the presidential election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, although narrowly.

Warner's victory was largely drawn from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.

• Complete video of debate, September 23, 2020

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[31]	Safe D	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[32]	Safe D	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[34]	Safe D	October 30, 2020
Politico[35]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
RCP[36]	Likely D	October 23, 2020
DDHQ[37]	Safe D	November 3, 2020
538[38]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
Economist[39]	Safe D	November 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Mark Warner (D)

Labor unions

• International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers^[40]

Organizations

• Black Economic Alliance^[41]
• Coalition to Stop Gun Violence^[42]
• End Citizens United^[43]
• Human Rights Campaign^[44]
• Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund^[45]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[46]
• League of Conservation Voters^[47]
• National Education Association^[48]
• National Organization for Women^[49]
• Planned Parenthood^[50]
• Population Connection^[51]
• Sierra Club^[52]

Individuals

• John Warner, former U.S. senator from Virginia (1979-2009) (Republican)^[53]

Daniel Gade (R)

U.S. representatives

• Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district^[25]

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mark Warner (D)	Daniel Gade (R)	Other/ Undecided
Swayable[54][b]	October 27 – November 1, 2020	283 (LV)	± 8.3%	61%	39%	–
Data for Progress[55]	October 27 – November 1, 2020	690 (LV)	± 3.7%	57%	42%	1%[c]
Roanoke College[56]	October 23–29, 2020	802 (LV)	± 3.4%	55%	39%	6%[d]
Christopher Newport University[57]	October 15–27, 2020	908 (LV)	± 3.4%	57%	37%	6%[e]
Swayable[58]	October 23–26, 2020	332 (LV)	± 7.3%	60%	40%	–
Virginia Commonwealth University[59]	October 13–22, 2020	709 (LV)	± 4.93%	55%	38%	8%[f]
Schar School/Washington Post[60]	October 13–19, 2020	908 (LV)	± 4%	57%	39%	4%[g]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[61]	October 11–14, 2020	1,231 (LV)	± 3.1%	54%	43%	2%[h]
Reconnect Research/Roanoke College[62]	September 30 – October 12, 2020	602 (LV)	–	55%	38%	7%[i]
Roanoke College/Reconnect Research[63]	September 30 – October 12, 2020	602 (LV)	± 5.4%	55%	38%	7%[i]
Cygnal (R)[64][j]	October 9–11, 2020	607 (LV)	–	51%	44%	5%[k]
Cygnal (R)[65][l][j]	September 22–25, 2020	600 (LV)	–	51%	41%	–
Christopher Newport University[66]	September 9–21, 2020	796 (LV)	± 3.9%	52%	39%	9%[m]
Virginia Commonwealth University[67][n]	August 28 – September 7, 2020	692 (LV)	± 6.22%	55%	38%	6[o]
Roanoke College[68]	August 9–22, 2020	566 (LV)	± 4.1%	55%	34%	10%[p]

Hypothetical polling

with Mark Warner and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mark Warner (D)	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Roanoke College[69]	May 3–16, 2020	563 (LV)	± 4.1%	48%	31%	–	–

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Other	Undecided
Ipsos/University of Virginia[70]	Feb 15–19, 2019	636 (A)	± 4.0%	43%	26%	2%	23%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2020^[71][q]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Mark Warner (incumbent)	2,466,500	55.99%	+6.84%
	Republican	Daniel Gade	1,934,199	43.91%	−4.43%
	Write-in		4,388	0.10%	+0.02%
Total votes			4,405,087	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By county and independent city

By county and independent city

County / City Mark Warner Democratic Daniel Gade Republican Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % Accomack 7,939 47.23 8,863 52.72 9 0.05 -924 -5.50 16,811 Albemarle 42,730 67.31 20,700 32.61 55 0.09 22,030 34.70 63,485 Alexandria 65,071 79.37 16,802 20.50 107 0.13 48,269 58.88 81,980 Alleghany 2,822 35.30 5,159 64.53 14 0.18 -2,337 -29.23 7,995 Amelia 2,559 32.67 5,266 67.23 8 0.10 -2,707 -34.56 7,833 Amherst 6,273 37.11 10,624 62.85 6 0.04 -4,351 -25.74 16,903 Appomattox 2,741 30.26 6,306 69.63 10 0.11 -3,565 -39.36 9,057 Arlington 102,880 79.37 26,590 20.51 154 0.12 76,290 58.85 129,624 Augusta 12,224 29.07 29,794 70.86 26 0.06 -17,570 -41.79 42,044 Bath 744 30.57 1,688 69.35 2 0.08 -944 -38.78 2,434 Bedford 13,872 28.71 34,407 71.21 39 0.08 -20,535 -42.53 48,279 Bland 732 21.62 2,651 78.29 3 0.09 -1,919 -56.72 3,383 Botetourt 6,512 31.43 14,190 68.49 15 0.07 -7,678 -37.06 20,717 Bristol 2,787 36.25 4,892 63.63 9 0.12 -2,105 -27.38 7,688 Brunswick 4,727 59.68 3,192 40.30 2 0.03 1,535 19.38 7,921 Buchanan 2,522 25.90 7,202 73.97 12 0.12 -4,680 -48.07 9,736 Buckingham 3,656 45.40 4,392 54.55 4 0.05 -736 -9.14 8,052 Buena Vista 1,020 37.13 1,724 62.76 3 0.11 -704 -25.63 2,747 Campbell 9,278 31.29 20,337 68.60 32 0.11 -11,059 -37.30 29,647 Caroline 8,124 50.23 8,036 49.68 14 0.09 88 0.54 16,174 Carroll 3,591 23.60 11,610 76.31 14 0.09 -8,019 -52.70 15,215 Charles City 2,700 61.29 1,704 38.68 1 0.02 996 22.61 4,405 Charlotte 2,522 40.95 3,633 59.00 3 0.05 -1,111 -18.04 6,158 Charlottesville 20,672 85.76 3,409 14.14 24 0.10 17,263 71.62 24,105 Chesapeake 68,129 53.90 58,154 46.00 125 0.10 9,975 7.89 126,408 Chesterfield 107,568 53.67 92,658 46.23 195 0.10 14,910 7.44 200,421 Clarke 4,052 43.69 5,214 56.22 8 0.09 -1,162 -12.53 9,274 Colonial Heights 3,143 35.16 5,788 64.74 9 0.10 -2,645 -29.59 8,940 Covington 1,157 45.46 1,386 54.46 2 0.08 -229 -9.00 2,545 Craig 757 24.09 2,381 75.76 5 0.16 -1,624 -51.67 3,143 Culpeper 11,123 41.61 15,590 58.33 16 0.06 -4,467 -16.71 26,729 Cumberland 2,317 43.99 2,947 55.95 3 0.06 -630 -11.96 5,267 Danville 12,519 65.16 6,680 34.77 14 0.07 5,839 30.39 19,213 Dickenson 2,052 28.49 5,142 71.40 8 0.11 -3,090 -42.91 7,202 Dinwiddie 6,445 43.34 8,414 56.58 13 0.09 -1,969 -13.24 14,872 Emporia 1,618 69.38 712 30.53 2 0.09 906 38.85 2,332 Essex 3,194 52.25 2,917 47.72 2 0.03 277 4.53 6,113 Fairfax City 9,179 68.88 4,134 31.02 14 0.11 5,045 37.86 13,327 Fairfax County 415,791 69.89 178,395 29.99 736 0.12 237,396 39.90 594,922 Falls Church 7,016 79.95 1,750 19.94 10 0.11 5,266 60.00 8,776 Fauquier 17,468 41.15 24,937 58.75 41 0.10 -7,469 -17.60 42,446 Floyd 3,407 36.52 5,908 63.34 13 0.14 -2,501 -26.81 9,328 Fluvanna 7,830 49.81 7,880 50.13 9 0.06 -50 -0.32 15,719 Franklin City 2,549 64.35 1,410 35.60 2 0.05 1,139 28.76 3,961 Franklin County 9,907 33.65 19,505 66.26 27 0.09 -9,598 -32.60 29,439 Frederick 17,962 37.46 29,940 62.45 44 0.09 -11,978 -24.98 47,946 Fredericksburg 8,495 67.48 4,080 32.41 13 0.10 4,415 35.07 12,588 Galax 919 35.36 1,679 64.60 1 0.04 -760 -29.24 2,599 Giles 2,713 30.06 6,306 69.87 6 0.07 -3,593 -39.81 9,025 Gloucester 7,521 33.97 14,605 65.96 17 0.08 -7,084 -31.99 22,143 Goochland 6,730 40.26 9,972 59.65 15 0.09 -3,242 -19.39 16,717 Grayson 1,946 24.56 5,972 75.36 7 0.09 -4,026 -50.80 7,925 Greene 4,529 40.45 6,661 59.49 6 0.05 -2,132 -19.04 11,196 Greensville 2,716 59.80 1,822 40.11 4 0.09 894 19.68 4,542 Halifax 8,258 45.65 9,824 54.31 6 0.03 -1,566 -8.66 18,088 Hampton 46,627 72.30 17,777 27.57 86 0.13 28,850 44.74 64,490 Hanover 25,864 37.04 43,893 62.86 69 0.10 -18,029 -25.82 69,826 Harrisonburg 11,116 66.30 5,634 33.60 17 0.10 5,482 32.70 16,767 Henrico 117,199 65.09 62,686 34.81 177 0.10 54,513 30.27 180,062 Henry 10,616 41.32 15,051 58.58 27 0.11 -4,435 -17.26 25,694 Highland 504 33.05 1,020 66.89 1 0.07 -516 -33.84 1,525 Hopewell 5,695 59.64 3,847 40.29 7 0.07 1,848 19.35 9,549 Isle of Wight 9,821 41.99 13,546 57.91 23 0.10 -3,725 -15.93 23,390 James City 25,685 52.07 23,600 47.84 41 0.08 2,085 4.23 49,326 King and Queen 1,705 41.74 2,372 58.07 8 0.20 -667 -16.33 4,085 King George 5,758 40.67 8,384 59.22 15 0.11 -2,626 -18.55 14,157 King William 3,447 32.72 7,079 67.20 9 0.09 -3,632 -34.48 10,535 Lancaster 3,457 48.64 3,648 51.32 3 0.04 -191 -2.69 7,108 Lee 2,240 22.74 7,600 77.16 10 0.10 -5,360 -54.42 9,850 Lexington 1,853 67.36 895 32.53 3 0.11 958 34.82 2,751 Loudoun 137,814 61.80 84,991 38.12 178 0.08 52,823 23.69 222,983 Louisa 8,700 39.98 13,039 59.92 20 0.09 -4,339 -19.94 21,759 Lunenburg 2,531 42.92 3,362 57.01 4 0.07 -831 -14.09 5,897 Lynchburg 18,587 51.85 17,208 48.00 53 0.15 1,379 3.85 35,848 Madison 2,925 36.16 5,156 63.75 7 0.09 -2,231 -27.58 8,088 Manassas 10,547 62.82 6,227 37.09 14 0.08 4,320 25.73 16,788 Manassas Park 4,084 67.86 1,929 32.05 5 0.08 2,155 35.81 6,018 Martinsville 3,957 67.72 1,881 32.19 5 0.09 2,076 35.53 5,843 Mathews 1,943 33.48 3,856 66.44 5 0.09 -1,913 -32.96 5,804 Mecklenburg 7,004 44.08 8,871 55.83 13 0.08 -1,867 -11.75 15,888 Middlesex 2,658 39.44 4,080 60.53 2 0.03 -1,422 -21.09 6,741 Montgomery 24,589 55.09 19,992 44.79 52 0.12 4,597 10.30 44,633 Nelson 4,673 50.75 4,526 49.16 8 0.09 147 1.60 9,207 New Kent 4,764 33.50 9,449 66.44 9 0.06 -4,685 -32.94 14,222 Newport News 53,265 67.61 25,428 32.27 95 0.12 27,837 35.33 78,788 Norfolk 66,152 74.01 23,084 25.83 144 0.16 43,068 48.18 89,380 Northampton 3,889 58.16 2,795 41.80 3 0.04 1,094 16.37 6,684 Northumberland 3,386 44.00 4,306 55.95 4 0.05 -920 -11.95 7,696 Norton 591 37.33 988 62.41 4 0.25 -397 -25.08 1,583 Nottoway 3,136 44.72 3,869 55.17 8 0.11 -733 -10.45 7,013 Orange 8,392 40.78 12,170 59.14 17 0.08 -3,778 -18.36 20,579 Page 3,420 27.57 8,968 72.31 15 0.12 -5,548 -44.73 12,403 Patrick 2,310 25.11 6,875 74.74 13 0.14 -4,565 -49.63 9,198 Petersburg 12,413 89.09 1,505 10.80 15 0.11 10,908 78.29 13,933 Pittsylvania 11,509 34.33 21,993 65.60 24 0.07 -10,484 -31.27 33,526 Poquoson 2,212 28.31 5,594 71.60 7 0.09 -3,382 -43.29 7,813 Portsmouth 31,520 71.97 12,241 27.95 35 0.08 19,279 44.02 43,796 Powhatan 5,660 28.82 13,972 71.14 8 0.04 -8,312 -42.32 19,640 Prince Edward 5,195 54.68 4,291 45.17 14 0.15 904 9.52 9,500 Prince George 7,199 42.22 9,842 57.72 10 0.06 -2,643 -15.50 17,051 Prince William[r] 145,751 64.46 80,177 35.46 183 0.08 65,574 29.00 226,111 Pulaski 5,941 34.63 11,203 65.29 14 0.08 -5,262 -30.67 17,158 Radford 3,551 56.82 2,690 43.04 9 0.14 861 13.78 6,250 Rappahannock 2,219 44.76 2,734 55.15 4 0.08 -515 -10.39 4,957 Richmond City 91,222 83.27 18,205 16.62 124 0.11 73,017 66.65 109,551 Richmond County 1,687 41.79 2,347 58.14 3 0.07 -660 -16.35 4,037 Roanoke City 28,345 66.08 14,499 33.80 50 0.12 13,846 32.28 42,894 Roanoke County 24,043 42.38 32,642 57.54 48 0.08 -8,599 -15.16 56,733 Rockbridge 4,631 37.73 7,637 62.22 6 0.05 -3,006 -24.49 12,274 Rockingham 13,739 31.61 29,700 68.33 29 0.07 -15,961 -36.72 43,468 Russell 3,288 24.79 9,962 75.11 13 0.10 -6,674 -50.37 13,250 Salem 5,697 44.02 7,235 55.90 11 0.08 -1,538 -11.88 12,943 Scott 2,191 20.38 8,543 79.46 17 0.16 -6,352 -59.08 10,751 Shenandoah 7,313 31.06 16,223 68.89 12 0.05 -8,910 -37.84 23,548 Smyth 3,973 28.38 10,013 71.52 15 0.11 -6,040 -43.14 14,001 Southampton 4,123 42.88 5,492 57.12 0 0.00 -1,369 -14.24 9,615 Spotsylvania 35,485 47.50 39,120 52.37 98 0.13 -3,635 -4.87 74,703 Stafford 40,566 51.97 37,389 47.90 100 0.13 3,177 4.07 78,055 Staunton 7,289 56.72 5,546 43.16 15 0.12 1,743 13.56 12,850 Suffolk 29,275 59.41 19,955 40.50 45 0.09 9,320 18.91 49,275 Surry 2,439 55.43 1,958 44.50 3 0.07 481 10.93 4,400 Sussex 2,924 57.62 2,146 42.29 5 0.10 778 15.33 5,075 Tazewell 4,504 23.03 15,033 76.87 20 0.10 -10,529 -53.84 19,557 Virginia Beach 120,753 53.91 103,037 46.00 202 0.09 17,716 7.91 223,992 Warren 7,075 33.73 13,874 66.15 24 0.11 -6,799 -32.42 20,973 Washington 7,744 27.24 20,656 72.66 27 0.09 -12,912 -45.42 28,427 Waynesboro 5,275 49.71 5,324 50.17 12 0.11 -49 -0.46 10,611 Westmoreland 4,821 49.02 5,009 50.94 4 0.04 -188 -1.91 9,834 Williamsburg 4,811 70.33 2,020 29.53 10 0.15 2,791 40.80 6,841 Winchester 6,898 57.58 5,076 42.37 6 0.05 1,822 15.21 11,980 Wise 4,128 25.41 12,096 74.46 21 0.13 -7,968 -49.05 16,245 Wythe 4,043 27.24 10,787 72.68 12 0.08 -6,744 -45.44 14,842 York 18,025 46.73 20,524 53.21 20 0.05 -2,499 -6.48 38,569 Totals 2,466,500 55.99 1,934,199 43.91 4,388 0.10 532,301 12.08 4,405,087 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Chesapeake (independent city) Chesterfield (largest municipality: Chester) Essex (largest municipality: Tappahannock) James City (no municipalities) Loudoun (largest municipality: Leesburg) Lynchburg (independent city) Stafford (largest municipality: Aquia Harbour) Staunton (independent city) Virginia Beach (independent city) Winchester (independent city) Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Alleghany (largest municipality: Clifton Forge) Covington (independent city)

By congressional district

Warner won seven of 11 congressional districts.^[72]

District	Warner	Gade	Representative
1st	49%	51%	Rob Wittman
2nd	54%	46%	Elaine Luria
3rd	69%	31%	Bobby Scott
4th	63%	37%	Donald McEachin
5th	48%	52%	Denver Riggleman
			Bob Good
6th	42%	58%	Ben Cline
7th	51%	49%	Abigail Spanberger
8th	76%	23%	Don Beyer
9th	34%	66%	Morgan Griffith
10th	59%	41%	Jennifer Wexton
11th	70%	30%	Gerry Connolly

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
3. "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
4. "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
5. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
6. "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
7. "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
8. "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
9. Undecided with 7%
10. Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
11. Undecided with 5%
12. Archived October 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
13. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
14. Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
15. "Don't know/refused" with 6%
16. "Refused" with 0%
17. On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.html
18. On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.html