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The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st Governor of Minnesota as incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was U.S. Representative Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district while the Republican Party nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson for a second consecutive time. The Independence Party of Minnesota did not field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election polls showed Walz ahead; the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.
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Turnout | 2,587,287 (63.6%) [lower-alpha 1] | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Walz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Johnson: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986, receiving more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota history. This was the first Minnesota gubernatorial election since 1958 in which any party won more than two consecutive elections, as well as the first time since 1998 where the party of the incumbent president lost.
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Erin Murphy |
Lori Swanson |
Tim Walz |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine | August 8–11, 2018 | 217 | ± 6.9% | 19% | 29% | 28% | – | 24% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 439 | ± 5.6% | 11% | 28% | 24% | 1% | 37% |
GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC) | June 25–27, 2018 | 602 | – | 17% | 37% | 29% | 1%[49] | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tom Bakk |
Chris Coleman |
Amy Klobuchar |
Erin Murphy |
Rebecca Otto |
R.T. Rybak |
Tina Smith |
Lori Swanson |
Tim Walz |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA Archived 2017-11-16 at the Wayback Machine | November 17–19, 2016 | – | – | 1% | 3% | 25% | 0% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 54% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Coleman |
Tina Liebling |
Erin Murphy |
Rebecca Otto |
Lori Swanson |
Paul Thissen |
Tim Walz |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | January 8–10, 2018 | 298 | – | 12% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 4% | 21% | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Erin Murphy |
Rebecca Otto |
Tim Walz |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Expedition Strategies (D-Walz) | April 23–26, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 3% | 19% | 27% | 2% | 49% |
On February 6, 2018, the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn will elect state convention delegates who will endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates will endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).
Congressional Unit |
Total attendance |
Chris Coleman | Tina Liebling | Erin Murphy | Rebecca Otto | Paul Thissen | Tim Walz |
Other | Uncommitted |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2,577 | 71 | 355 | 107 | 232 | 56 | 1,558 | 4 | 163 |
2 | 3,501 | 384 | 202 | 411 | 656 | 120 | 1,156 | 4 | 523 |
3 | 4,291 | 670 | 202 | 386 | 827 | 186 | 1,362 | 8 | 530 |
4 | 6,072 | 854 | 297 | 1,111 | 1,227 | 139 | 1,384 | 11 | 897 |
5 | 9,519 | 1,019 | 457 | 1,400 | 1,462 | 537 | 2,363 | 30 | 1,137 |
6 | 2,375 | 326 | 115 | 294 | 587 | 59 | 590 | 4 | 375 |
7 | 2,121 | 124 | 106 | 274 | 405 | 172 | 761 | 4 | 273 |
8 | 3,873 | 441 | 277 | 474 | 1,082 | 263 | 759 | 8 | 527 |
Statewide | 34,329 | 3,889 | 2,011 | 4,457 | 6,478 | 1,532 | 9,933 | 73 | 4,425 |
Percent | - | 11.86% | 6.13% | 13.59% | 19.75% | 4.67% | 30.29% | 0.22% | 13.49% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz | 242,832 | 41.60% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Erin Murphy | 186,969 | 32.03% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Lori Swanson | 143,517 | 24.59% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Tim Holden | 6,398 | 1.10% | |
Democratic (DFL) | Olé Savior | 4,019 | 0.69% | |
Total votes | 583,735 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Johnson |
Matt Kruse |
Tim Pawlenty |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine | August 8–11, 2018 | 156 | ± 8.0% | 34% | – | 43% | – | 23% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 340 | ± 6.4% | 32% | – | 51% | 1% | 16% |
BK Strategies (R) Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine | June 24–25, 2018 | 439 | ± 4.7% | 20% | 3% | 54% | – | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kurt Daudt |
Keith Downey |
Tom Emmer |
Mike McFadden |
Erik Paulsen |
Tim Pawlenty |
Rich Stanek |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA Archived 2017-11-16 at the Wayback Machine | November 17–19, 2016 | – | – | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 19% | 1% | 64% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kurt Daudt |
Matt Dean |
Keith Downey |
Jeff Johnson |
Julie Rosen |
Mary G. Stephens |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon | January 8–10, 2018 | 218 | – | 12% | 2% | 1% | 24% | 4% | 1% | 54% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jeff Johnson | 168,841 | 52.61% | |
Republican | Tim Pawlenty | 140,743 | 43.86% | |
Republican | Mathew Kruse | 11,330 | 3.53% | |
Total votes | 320,914 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[92] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[93] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[94] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[95] | Likely D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[96] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[97] | Lean D | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[98] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[99][lower-alpha 2] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[100] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[101] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
The debate season began only three days after the primaries with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held Friday, August 31.[102][103]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (DFL) |
Jeff Johnson (R) |
Josh Welter (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 953 | – | 53% | 41% | 2% | 2%[125] | – |
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 48% | 42% | – | 1% | 9% |
SurveyUSA | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 5.3% | 49% | 41% | – | 2% | 9% |
St. Cloud State University | October 15–30, 2018 | 404 | – | 50% | 34% | – | – | – |
Mason-Dixon Archived 2018-10-21 at the Wayback Machine | October 15–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 39% | 3% | 2%[125] | 12% |
Change Research | October 12–13, 2018 | 1,413 | – | 47% | 44% | 3% | 4%[126] | 2% |
Marist College | September 30 – October 4, 2018 | 637 LV | ± 4.9% | 51% | 36% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
55% | 38% | – | <1% | 7% | ||||
860 RV | ± 4.2% | 49% | 37% | 7% | <1% | 7% | ||
53% | 39% | – | 1% | 8% | ||||
Mason-Dixon | September 10–12, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 36% | 1% | 2%[125] | 16% |
SurveyUSA | September 6–8, 2018 | 574 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 40% | – | 3% | 10% |
Suffolk University Archived 2018-12-08 at the Wayback Machine | August 17–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 41% | 1% | 1%[127] | 12% |
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 40% | 33% | – | – | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Erin Murphy (D) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 40% | 2% | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lori Swanson (D) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 36% | – | 21% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 7% |
BK Strategies Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Tim Walz (D) |
Tim Pawlenty (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 33% | – | 23% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 876 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 8% |
BK Strategies Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 41% | – | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Lori Swanson (D) |
Jeff Johnson (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 37% | 32% | 31% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BK Strategies Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D-A Better Minnesota) | June 15–16, 2018 | 717 | – | 46% | 39% | 16% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz | 1,393,096 | 53.84% | +3.77% | |
Republican | Jeff Johnson | 1,097,705 | 42.43% | −2.08% | |
Grassroots—LC | Chris Wright | 68,667 | 2.65% | +1.07% | |
Libertarian | Josh Welter | 26,735 | 1.03% | +0.11% | |
Write-in | 1,084 | 0.04% | 0.00% | ||
Total votes | 2,587,287 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
Walz won 5 of 8 congressional districts. Each candidate won a district won by the other party.[129]
District | Walz | Johnson | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 49.54% | 47.18% | Jim Hagedorn |
2nd | 51.52% | 44.58% | Angie Craig |
3rd | 54.44% | 42.37% | Dean Phillips |
4th | 65.72% | 30.56% | Betty McCollum |
5th | 77.91% | 18.17% | Ilhan Omar |
6th | 40.53% | 55.49% | Tom Emmer |
7th | 39.56% | 56.86% | Collin Peterson |
8th | 47.14% | 48.93% | Pete Stauber |
Demographic subgroup | Walz | Johnson | No Answer |
% of Voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 48 | 49 | 3 | 46 |
Women | 59 | 37 | 4 | 54 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | 71 | 25 | 4 | 6 |
25–29 years old | 63 | 34 | 3 | 5 |
30–39 years old | 60 | 38 | 2 | 12 |
40–49 years old | 51 | 46 | 3 | 13 |
50–64 years old | 54 | 45 | 1 | 29 |
65 and older | 52 | 46 | 2 | 35 |
Race | ||||
White | 53 | 46 | 1 | 89 |
Black | 84 | 14 | 2 | 5 |
Latino | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Race by gender | ||||
White men | 46 | 53 | 1 | 41 |
White women | 59 | 39 | 2 | 48 |
Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Latino women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 52 | 45 | 3 | 17 |
Some college education | 48 | 49 | 3 | 24 |
Associate degree | 48 | 49 | 3 | 17 |
Bachelor's degree | 56 | 40 | 4 | 26 |
Advanced degree | 70 | 28 | 2 | 16 |
Education and race | ||||
White college graduates | 61 | 35 | 4 | 38 |
White no college degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 51 |
Non-white college graduates | 70 | 26 | 4 | 4 |
Non-white no college degree | 74 | 23 | 3 | 7 |
Whites by education and gender | ||||
White women with college degrees | 68 | 29 | 3 | 21 |
White women without college degrees | 51 | 45 | 4 | 28 |
White men with college degrees | 54 | 43 | 3 | 17 |
White men without college degrees | 40 | 58 | 2 | 23 |
Non-whites | 73 | 24 | 3 | 11 |
Income | ||||
Under $30,000 | 63 | 34 | 3 | 14 |
$30,000–49,999 | 54 | 43 | 3 | 21 |
$50,000–99,999 | 48 | 51 | 1 | 36 |
$100,000–199,999 | 55 | 42 | 3 | 23 |
Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 95 | 5 | N/A | 39 |
Republicans | 10 | 90 | N/A | 32 |
Independents | 51 | 42 | 7 | 28 |
Party by gender | ||||
Democratic men | 94 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
Democratic women | 95 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
Republican men | 8 | 92 | N/A | 16 |
Republican women | 12 | 88 | N/A | 17 |
Independent men | 47 | 48 | 5 | 16 |
Independent women | 58 | 34 | 8 | 13 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 94 | 2 | 4 | 27 |
Moderates | 65 | 32 | 3 | 39 |
Conservatives | 10 | 87 | 3 | 33 |
Marital status | ||||
Married | 47 | 49 | 4 | 68 |
Unmarried | 63 | 33 | 4 | 32 |
Gender by marital status | ||||
Married men | 43 | 54 | 3 | 31 |
Married women | 51 | 45 | 4 | 36 |
Unmarried men | 52 | 43 | 5 | 15 |
Unmarried women | 72 | 24 | 4 | 18 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 52 | 44 | 4 | 12 |
No | 55 | 42 | 3 | 88 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Health care | 74 | 24 | 2 | 50 |
Immigration | 20 | 79 | 1 | 22 |
Economy | 30 | 67 | 3 | 18 |
Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 8 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 67 | 30 | 3 | 40 |
Suburban | 50 | 46 | 4 | 32 |
Rural | 41 | 56 | 3 | 28 |
Source: CNN[130] |
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