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The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.[2]
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Turnout | 81.33% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Daines: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Bullock: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Originally, this seat was projected to be a safe Republican hold.[3] However, Bullock entered the race on the last day to file, shifting the dynamics of the contest dramatically; many political pundits then considered it a competitive race and a potential pickup for Democrats.[4] One poll showed Bullock leading by seven points.[5] Democrats outspent Republicans $82 million to $63 million on this race; it was one of the most expensive Senate races in the 2020 cycle.[6] On Election Day, Daines prevailed by a relatively comfortable 10% margin following a trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming expectations. Bullock did outperform Biden, who lost Montana by a 16.4% margin, but this was not enough to win.[7]
This election marked the first time since 2000 where Montana voted for a Republican governor, president, and senator all on the same ballot. As the Green Party was removed from the ballot and both Libertarian nominees withdrew, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no third-party candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.[8] This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican senator was re-elected to this seat.
Businessmen
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 192,942 | 88.02% | |
Republican | John Driscoll | 13,944 | 6.36% | |
Republican | Daniel Larson | 12,319 | 5.62% | |
Total votes | 219,205 | 100.00% |
Following Steve Bullock's entry shortly before the March 9 filing deadline, several Democrats dropped from the race.[2]
Federal officials
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 144,949 | 95.45% | |
Democratic | John Mues | 3,740 | 2.46% | |
Democratic | Mike Knoles (withdrawn) | 3,165 | 2.09% | |
Total votes | 151,854 | 100.00% |
After Susan Geise officially withdrew, the Montana Libertarian Party could name a replacement candidate for the general election.[27][28] However, during a meeting to select a replacement candidate, a majority of party officials selected not to have a replacement candidate, with "none of the above" winning the most votes.[29]
Source | Rating | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[38] | Toss Up | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[39] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[41] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
Politico[42] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
RCP[43] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[44] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
538[45] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[46] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
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Federal officials
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Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
Steve Bullock vs. Steve Daines | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Steve Bullock | Steve Daines | Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 1] | Margin |
Real Clear Politics[81] | October 5–24, 2020 | October 30, 2020 | 46.4% | 48.8% | 4.8% | Daines + 2.4 |
270 to Win[82] | October 19, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 47.2% | 48.0% | 4.8% | Daines + 0.8 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Steve Daines (R) |
Steve Bullock (D) |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research[83] | October 29 – November 2, 2020 | 920 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 3%[lower-alpha 3] |
Public Policy Polling (D)[84][upper-alpha 1] | October 26–27, 2020 | 886 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 48% | 6%[lower-alpha 4] |
The Progress Campaign (D)[85] | October 25, 2020 | – (V)[lower-alpha 5] | – | 48% | 48% | – |
Montana State University Billings[86] | October 19–24, 2020 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 48% | 5%[lower-alpha 6] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[87] | October 18–20, 2020 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 6%[lower-alpha 7] |
Strategies 360[88] | October 15–20, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 6] |
RMG Research[89] | October 15–18, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49%[lower-alpha 8] | 47% | 5%[lower-alpha 9] |
47%[lower-alpha 10] | 48% | 5%[lower-alpha 9] | ||||
50%[lower-alpha 11] | 45% | 5%[lower-alpha 9] | ||||
Public Policy Polling[90] | October 9–10, 2020 | 798 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 12] |
Emerson College[91] | October 4–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 43% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] |
Data For Progress (D)[92] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 737 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 48% | 4%[lower-alpha 14] |
Montana State University Bozeman[93] | September 14 – October 2, 2020 | 1,609 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 49% | 4%[lower-alpha 15] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot[94] | September 14–16, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 45% | 44% | 11%[lower-alpha 16] |
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[95][upper-alpha 2] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 17] |
Emerson College[96] | July 31 – August 2, 2020 | 584 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6%[lower-alpha 13] |
Spry Strategies (R)[97][upper-alpha 3] | July 11–16, 2020 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 44% | 9%[lower-alpha 18] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos[98] | July 11–13, 2020 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 47% | 3%[lower-alpha 19] |
Public Policy Polling[99] | July 9–10, 2020 | 1,224 (V) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 46% | 10%[lower-alpha 20] |
University of Montana[100] | June 17–26, 2020 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 43% | 47% | 10%[lower-alpha 21] |
Montana State University Bozeman[101] | April 10–27, 2020 | 459 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 46% | 15%[lower-alpha 22] |
The Progress Campaign (D)[102] | April 14–21, 2020 | 712 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[103][upper-alpha 4] | March 12–13, 2020 | 903 (V) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Democratic candidates |
Steve Daines (R) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Montana[104] | February 12–22, 2020 | 498 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 53%[lower-alpha 23] | 47% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Democratic candidates |
Steve Daines (R) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Montana[105] | September 26 – October 3, 2019 | 303 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 36%[lower-alpha 24] | 64% |
University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.
Steve Daines vs Steve Bullock, Wilmot Collins, Mike Knoles, Cora Neumann, and John Mues
Steve Daines vs Jack Ballard, Wilmot Collins, and John Mues
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Daines (incumbent) | 333,174 | 55.01% | −2.78% | |
Democratic | Steve Bullock | 272,463 | 44.99% | +4.92% | |
Total votes | 605,637 | 100.00% | |||
Republican hold |
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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Partisan clients
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