2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

Not to be confused with 2020 Montana House of Representatives election.

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district

← 2018 November 3, 2020 2022 →

Nominee Matt Rosendale Kathleen Williams Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 339,169 262,340 Percentage 56.39% 43.61%

County results Precinct results Rosendale:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Williams:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      50%      No data

U.S. Representative before election Greg Gianforte Republican Elected U.S. Representative Matt Rosendale Republican

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018,^[1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock.^[2]

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana.^[3]

In the general election, Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams.

As of a result of the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained its 2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Matt Rosendale, Montana State Auditor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2014^[4]

Eliminated in primary

• Joe Dooling, rancher and chair of the Lewis and Clark County Republican Party^[5]
• John Evankovich, electrical contractor^[6]
• Debra Lamm, former chair of the Montana Republican Party and former state representative^[7]
• Mark McGinley, youth counselor and retired Montana National Guard veteran^[6]
• Corey Stapleton, Secretary of State of Montana, former state senator, candidate for Governor of Montana in 2012, candidate for the U.S. House in 2014^[8]

Declined

• Greg Gianforte, incumbent U.S. representative (running for governor)^[2]
• Albert Olszewski, state senator (running for governor)^[9]
• Denny Rehberg, former U.S. representative, nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012, and former lieutenant governor of Montana^[10]

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale

Executive officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States^[11]

Individuals

• Mark Levin, conservative talk radio host^[12]
• Donald Trump Jr., businessman, son of President Donald Trump^[13]

Organizations

• Club for Growth^[14]
• Crow Tribe of Montana^[15]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Russell Fagg	Joe Dooling	Timothy Johnson	Al Olszewski	Denny Rehberg	Matt Rosendale	Corey Stapleton	Undecided
Montana State University Billings[16]	October 7–16, 2019	99 (LV)	–	–	1%	<1%	–	–	32%	22%	44%
WPA Intelligence (R)[17][A]	February 24–26, 2019	501 (V)	± 4.4%	24%	–	–	–	–	57%	–	15%
				–			–	39%	46%	–	13%
				18%			10%	–	51%	–	18%
				15%			–	31%	37%	–	16%
				17%			–	–	48%	19%	16%

Results

Republican primary results^[18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Matt Rosendale	104,575	48.31%
	Republican	Corey Stapleton	71,902	33.21%
	Republican	Debra Lamm	14,462	6.68%
	Republican	Joe Dooling	13,726	6.34%
	Republican	Mark McGinley	7,818	3.61%
	Republican	John Evankovich	3,983	1.84%
Total votes			216,466	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Kathleen Williams, former state representative and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2018^[19]

Eliminated in primary

• Tom Winter, state representative^[20]

Withdrew

• Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams)^[21]

Declined

• Wilmot Collins, mayor of Helena and former 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate^[22]
• Rob Quist, musician, member of the Montana Arts Council, nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2017

Endorsements

Kathleen Williams

State politicians

• Dick Barrett, State Representative
• Willis Curdy, State Representative
• Ann Mary Dussault, former state representative and former House Majority Leader
• Jen Gross, State Senator
• Tom Jacobson, State Senator
• Jessica Karjala, State Representative
• Kathy Kelker, State Representative
• Emma Kerr-Carpenter, State Representative
• Jasmine Krotkov, State Representative
• Margaret McDonald, state senator, Senate Minority Whip, and former state representative
• Mary McNally, State Senator
• Diane Sands, state senator and former state representative

Local politicians

• Mike Kadas, former mayor of Missoula (1996–2006)

Individuals

• Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district^[21]

Local unions

• American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Montana Council 9^[23]
• International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 190^[24]
• Montana Federation of Public Employees^[25]

Organizations

• EMILY's List
• End Citizens United
• League of Conservation Voters
• Montana Conservation Voters
• Montana Sportsmen Alliance PAC
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare
• National Organization for Women
• New Democrat Coalition Action Fund^[26]

Tom Winter

Individuals

• Marianne Williamson, former 2020 Democratic presidential candidate^[27]

Organizations

• Blue America^[28]
• DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare^[29]
• Montana Progressive Democrats^[30]
• Our Revolution^[31]
• Progressive Rising^[32]
• Sunrise Movement - Montana chapter^[33]

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Matt Rains	Kathleen Williams	Undecided
Montana State University Billings[34]	October 7–16, 2019	40 (LV)	–	6%	69%	25%

Results

Democratic primary results^[18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kathleen Williams	133,436	89.47%
	Democratic	Tom Winter	15,698	10.53%
Total votes			149,134	100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Disqualified

• John Gibney, anti-immigration activist^[35][36]

Results

Green primary results^[18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	John Gibney	690	100.0%
Total votes			690	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[37]	Lean R	October 2, 2020
Inside Elections[38]	Lean R	October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]	Lean R	October 1, 2020
Politico[40]	Lean R	September 9, 2020
Daily Kos[41]	Lean R	September 25, 2020
RCP[42]	Tossup	October 26, 2020
Niskanen[43]	Lean R	July 26, 2020
The Economist[44]	Tossup	October 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Matt Rosendale (R)	Kathleen Williams (D)	Other / Undecided
Montana State University Billings[45]	October 19–24, 2020	546 (LV)	± 4.2%	47%	46%	6%[b]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[46]	October 18–20, 2020	758 (LV)	± 4.4%	50%	46%	4%[c]
Strategies 360[47]	October 15–20, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	46%	46%	9%[d]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[48]	October 15–18, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%[e]	47%	6%[f]
				45%[g]	49%	6%[h]
				49%[i]	45%	6%[j]
Montana State University Bozeman[49]	September 14 – October 2, 2020	1,609 (LV)	± 3.9%	48%	46%	6%[k]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[50]	September 14–16, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4.8%	41%	44%	13%[l]
Expedition Strategies (D)[51][B]	August 22–27, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	51%	1%[m]
WPA Intelligence (R)[52][A]	August 9–11, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	45%	4%[n]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[53]	July 11–13, 2020	873 (RV)	± 4.2%	49%	47%	5%[o]
Public Policy Polling[54]	July 9–10, 2020	1,224 (V)	± 2.8%	44%	44%	13%[p]
Global Strategy Group (D)[55][C]	June 24–28, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	47%	6%
University of Montana[56]	June 17–26, 2020	517 (RV)	± 4.3%	45%	37%	18%[q]
Public Policy Polling[57][D]	March 12–13, 2020	903 (V)	± 3.3%	45%	45%	9%

Hypothetical polling

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Matt Rosendale (R)	Corey Stapleton (R)	Kathleen Williams (D)	Other
University of Montana[58]	February 12–22, 2020	498 (LV)	± 4.4%	35.7%	19.4%	35.8%	9.1%[r]

with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Matt Rosendale (R)	Corey Stapleton (R)	Kathleen Williams (D)	Other
University of Montana[59]	September 26 – October 3, 2019	303 (RV)	± 5.6%	35.3%	19.8%	36.1%	8.8%[s]

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2020^[60]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Matt Rosendale	339,169	56.39%	+5.51%
	Democratic	Kathleen Williams	262,340	43.61%	−2.64%
Total votes			601,509	100.00%
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Park (largest city: Livingston)
• Hill (largest city: Havre)

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Undecided with 6%
3. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
4. Undecided with 9%
5. Standard VI response
6. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
7. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
8. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
9. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
10. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
11. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
12. Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
13. Undecided with 1%
14. Undecided with 4%
15. Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
16. Undecided with 13%
17. Undecided with 18.4%
18. Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
19. Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
2. Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
3. Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates