2004 Andalusian regional election

A regional election was held in Andalusia on Sunday, 14 March 2004, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2004 Spanish general election.

2004 Andalusian regional election

← 2000 14 March 2004 2008 →
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	6,052,012 2.3%
Turnout	4,518,545 (74.7%) 6.0 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Manuel Chaves Teófila Martínez Diego Valderas Party PSOE–A PP IULV–CA Leader since 19 April 1990 20 February 1999 10 October 2000 Leader's seat Cádiz Cádiz Huelva Last election 52 seats, 44.3% 46 seats, 38.0% 6 seats, 8.1% Seats won 61 37 6 Seat change 9 9 0 Popular vote 2,260,545 1,426,774 337,030 Percentage 50.4% 31.8% 7.5% Swing 6.1 pp 6.2 pp 0.6 pp   Fourth party   Leader Antonio Ortega Party PA Leader since 19 October 1996 Leader's seat Seville Last election 5 seats, 7.4% Seats won 5 Seat change 0 Popular vote 276,674 Percentage 6.2% Swing 1.2 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election Manuel Chaves PSOE–A Elected President Manuel Chaves PSOE–A

As happened with the concurrent nationwide election, results in Andalusia were heavily influenced by political controversy derived from the 11 March train bombings in Madrid. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) exceeded all opinion poll expectations by securing a comfortable majority. Incumbent Manuel Chaves was thus able to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).^[1][2]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
18	Seville
16	Málaga
15	Cádiz
13	Córdoba, Granada
12	Jaén
11	Almería, Huelva

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.^[3]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 12 March 2004. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Tuesday, 11 May 2004.^{[1][2][4][5][6]}

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.^[1][4][5][6]

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[2][7]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE–A	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)		Manuel Chaves	Social democracy	44.3%	52
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Teófila Martínez	Conservatism Christian democracy	38.0%	46
	IULV–CA	List United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)		Diego Valderas	Socialism Communism	8.1%	6
	PA	List Andalusian Party (PA) Andalusian Forum (FA) Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA)		Antonio Ortega	Andalusian nationalism Social democracy	7.4%	5

Campaign

Election debates

2004 Andalusian regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present[a]
			PSOE–A	PP	IULV–CA	PA	Audience	Ref.
4 March	Canal Sur	Manuel Campo Vidal	P Chaves	P Martínez	P Valderas	P Ortega	17.9% (552,000)	[8] [9]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 12 March 2000 to 14 March 2004, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV			Lead
2004 regional election	14 Mar 2004	—	74.7	50.4 61	31.8 37	7.5 6	6.2 5	0.9 0	18.6
Sigma Dos/Antena 3[p 1]	14 Mar 2004	?	?	48.2 56/59	34.4 40/43	7.1 4/7	6.5 5	–	13.8
Ipsos–Eco/RTVE[p 2]	14 Mar 2004	?	?	47.5 57/59	32.8 37/40	8.8 7/8	6.6 4/5	–	14.7
Metra Seis/PA[p 3]	27 Feb–3 Mar 2004	?	?	? 53/54	? 44	? 4	? 7/8	? 0	?
Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba[p 4]	29 Feb 2004	?	?	44.0 54/55	37.5 46/47	7.2 4/5	5.7 2/3	–	6.5
Opina/El País[p 5][p 6]	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	?	47.0 56/59	36.5 42/46	7.0 4/6	6.0 3	–	10.5
TNS Demoscopia/Vocento[p 7][p 8]	12–20 Feb 2004	3,613	67–68	47.1 54/56	36.7 46/47	6.9 4/5	7.3 3	–	10.4
CIS[p 9][p 10]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	75.2	47.1 55	36.1 42	8.1 8	6.8 4	0.2 0	11.0
Idea Asesores/PP[p 11][p 12]	14 Feb 2004	?	?	42.0 50/51	39.8 49/51	? 5/6	? 3	? 0	2.2
Opina/CEA[p 13][p 14]	2–7 Feb 2004	3,200	?	45.5 53/54	37.5 45/46	7.5 7	6.0 3	0.5 0	8.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 15][p 16]	2–5 Feb 2004	2,500	?	44.9 54/55	37.7 47/48	7.4 4/5	5.6 2/3	–	7.2
CADPEA/UGR[p 17][p 18]	3–23 Dec 2003	3,200	72.6	45.2	37.1	7.8	6.7	0.8	8.1
Metra Seis/PA[p 19]	24 Nov 2003	?	?	? 53/54	? 44/45	? 5/6	? 4/6	? 0	?
IESA/CSIC[p 20][p 21]	1–21 Nov 2003	3,700	70	46.7	37.2	8.0	7.4	0.3	9.5
Idea Asesores/PP[p 22][p 23]	22 Sep–2 Oct 2003	3,000	?	42.8 50/51	39.5 49/50	8.5 6	5.5 2/3	0.6 0	3.3
CADPEA/UGR[p 24][p 25][p 26]	1–19 Jul 2003	3,200	74.2	45.1	37.3	8.2	6.6	0.8	7.8
2003 local elections	25 May 2003	—	65.6	38.2	30.9	12.8	8.8	1.5	7.3
Demoscopia/Grupo Joly[p 27][p 28]	28 Feb 2003	?	?	47.9	34.7	7.7	8.2	–	13.2
Opina/El País[p 29][p 30]	18–19 Feb 2003	1,200	?	50.5	30.0	9.5	7.5	–	20.5
Sigma Dos/ABC[p 31]	14–17 Feb 2003	1,000	?	49.8	33.7	7.5	6.1	–	16.1
Idea Asesores/PP[p 32][p 33]	3–12 Feb 2003	2,500	?	43.2 51/52	39.8 48/49	6.9 5	6.6 4	1.1 0/1	3.4
CADPEA/UGR[p 34]	31 Jan 2003	3,500	?	46.9	34.9	7.7	7.8	0.4	12.0
IESA/CSIC[p 35][p 36]	15 Nov–10 Dec 2002	3,884	70	47.9	35.2	7.5	7.1	0.5	12.7
Inner/PSOE[p 37]	10 Nov 2002	431	?	51.6	39.1	7.6	1.7	–	12.5
CIS[p 38][p 39][p 40][p 41]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	982	70.9	45.0	37.2	7.1	8.2	–	7.8
Sigma Dos/Sur[p 42][p 43]	28 Feb 2002	?	?	45.0	40.7	6.8	5.0	–	4.3
Idea Asesores/PP[p 44]	28 Feb 2002	?	?	41.9 50	40.6 49/50	7.4 4/5	5.7 3/4	2.6 0	1.3
Opina/El País[p 45][p 46]	18–19 Feb 2002	1,200	?	47.3	35.0	7.3	7.8	0.5	12.3
PSOE[p 47]	31 Jan–5 Feb 2002	1,200	?	45.7	35.5	8.6	7.9	–	10.2
IESA/CSIC[p 48][p 49]	15 Nov–10 Dec 2001	3,696	?	46.8	35.8	8.9	7.1	–	11.0
Opina/CEA[p 50][p 51]	15–27 Oct 2001	3,200	?	44.2 52/53	39.5 47/48	7.4 5/6	6.9 3/4	–	4.7
PSOE[p 52]	7–15 Jun 2001	2,045	?	50.9	34.1	–	–	–	16.8
Sigma Dos[p 31][p 53]	28 Feb 2001	?	?	43.2	40.3	7.1	7.4	–	2.9
IESA/CSIC[p 54][p 55]	10 Nov–5 Dec 2000	3,645	?	46.6	35.7	9.4	7.8	–	10.9
2000 regional election	12 Mar 2000	—	68.7	44.3 52	38.0 46	8.1 6	7.4 5	–	6.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			IULV			?	N	Lead
2004 regional election	14 Mar 2004	—	37.9	24.0	5.7	4.7	0.7	—	24.2	13.9
CIS[p 9]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	37.8	17.6	5.1	3.2	0.1	28.6	5.9	20.2
CADPEA/UGR[p 17]	3–23 Dec 2003	3,200	36.6	18.8	–	–	–	32.3	–	17.8
IESA/CSIC[p 20]	1–21 Nov 2003	3,700	32.3	24.9	6.0	5.2	–	22.8	6.5	7.4
Idea Asesores/PP[p 32]	3–12 Feb 2003	2,500	25.3	22.3	4.1	4.9	0.3	35.0	8.1	3.0
IESA/CSIC[p 35]	15 Nov–10 Dec 2002	3,884	35.3	22.2	5.1	4.9	–	23.9	5.3	13.1
CIS[p 38]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	982	29.3	15.4	4.5	5.0	–	34.3	9.1	13.9
IESA/CSIC[p 35]	15 Nov–10 Dec 2001	3,696	32.2	23.7	6.3	4.9	–	24.9	5.1	8.5
Opina/CEA[p 51]	15–27 Oct 2001	3,200	28.2	21.0	4.2	5.2	–	–	–	7.2
Demoscopia/El País[p 56][p 57]	15–20 Feb 2001	1,205	23.7	22.7	3.2	6.0	–	–	–	1.0
IESA/CSIC[p 35]	10 Nov–5 Dec 2000	3,645	31.8	23.4	6.3	5.2	–	26.0	5.2	8.4
2000 regional election	12 Mar 2000	—	30.6	26.4	5.6	5.2	–	—	30.2	4.2

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			IULV			Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/El País[p 6]	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	39.2	23.5	4.3	3.6	0.3	1.4	37.7	15.7
CIS[p 9]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	44.4	20.4	5.5	3.5	0.2	1.2	24.8	24.0
Opina/El País[p 30]	18–19 Feb 2003	1,200	35.8	19.0	4.2	4.8	0.2	0.8	35.2	16.8
Opina/El País[p 46]	18–19 Feb 2002	1,200	34.5	21.3	4.3	3.4	0.3	0.6	35.7	13.2

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			IULV			Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/El País[p 6]	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	73.6	7.5	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	18.6	66.1
CIS[p 9]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	72.9	5.4	0.3	0.3	–	0.1	21.0	67.5
Inner/PSOE[p 58]	20 Oct–7 Nov 2003	1,200	65.1	14.6	–	–	–	1.8	18.5	50.5
Opina/El País[p 30]	18–19 Feb 2003	1,200	63.6	5.4	0.3	0.8	0.1	0.1	29.7	58.2
Opina/El País[p 46]	18–19 Feb 2002	1,200	53.5	11.8	0.4	0.6	0.4	0.0	33.2	41.7

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Chaves PSOE–A	Martínez PP	Valderas IULV	Ortega PA	Pacheco PSA
Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba[p 4]	29 Feb 2004	?	45.8	22.1	–	–	–	–	–	23.7
Opina/El País[p 6]	26–27 Feb 2004	1,500	38.0	22.5	3.2	3.2	–	2.2	30.9	15.5
CIS[p 9]	24 Jan–15 Feb 2004	4,147	46.7	19.1	3.3	2.0	2.2	4.1	22.7	27.6
Inner/PSOE[p 58]	20 Oct–7 Nov 2003	1,200	55.9	32.7	–	–	–	7.9	3.5	23.2

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 14 March 2004 Parliament of Andalusia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	2,260,545	50.36	+6.04	61	+9
	People's Party (PP)	1,426,774	31.78	−6.24	37	−9
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	337,030	7.51	−0.60	6	±0
	Andalusian Party (PA)	276,674	6.16	−1.27	5	±0
	Andalusian Forum (FA)	53,288	1.19	New	0	±0
	Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA)	42,219	0.94	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	5,670	0.13	+0.02	0	±0
	New Andalusian Green Left (NIVA)	5,065	0.11	New	0	±0
	Andalusia Assembly (A)	4,544	0.10	−0.01	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)1	4,437	0.10	+0.07	0	±0
	Party of Precarious Workers (PTPRE)	3,321	0.07	New	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	3,130	0.07	New	0	±0
	Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)	1,642	0.04	New	0	±0
	Left Assembly–Initiative for Andalusia (A–IZ)	1,334	0.03	New	0	±0
	Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP)	525	0.01	New	0	±0
	National Union (UN)	523	0.01	±0.00	0	±0
Blank ballots		62,451	1.39	+0.10
Total		4,489,172			109	±0
Valid votes		4,489,172	99.35	+0.01
Invalid votes		28,658	0.65	−0.01
Votes cast / turnout		4,518,545	74.66	+5.95
Abstentions		1,533,467	25.34	−5.95
Registered voters		6,052,012
Sources[10][11][12]
Footnotes: 1 Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO results are compared to Independent Spanish Phalanx totals in the 2000 election.

Popular vote PSOE–A   50.36% PP   31.78% IULV–CA   7.51% PA   6.16% FA   1.19% Others   1.61% Blank ballots   1.39%

Seats PSOE–A   55.96% PP   33.94% IULV–CA   5.50% PA   4.59%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE–A		PP		IULV–CA		PA
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Almería	46.1	6	42.0	5	3.8	−	4.4	−
Cádiz	47.8	8	32.0	5	6.6	1	7.3	1
Córdoba	45.9	7	30.8	4	11.2	1	6.4	1
Granada	49.0	7	35.4	5	7.1	1	4.3	−
Huelva	52.9	7	28.8	3	7.3	−	8.0	1
Jaén	53.1	7	32.4	4	6.7	1	5.7	−
Málaga	47.5	8	34.6	6	7.6	1	6.7	1
Seville	55.9	11	26.2	5	7.9	1	6.1	1
Total	50.4	61	31.8	37	7.5	6	6.2	5
Sources[10][11][12]

Aftermath

Investiture Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot →		21 April 2004
Required majority →		55 out of 109 Y
	Yes • PSOE–A (61)	61 / 109
	No • PP (36)	36 / 109
	Abstentions • IULV–CA (6) • PA (5)	11 / 109
	Absentees • PP (1)	1 / 109
Sources[10]

Notes

1. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.