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2006 California gubernatorial election

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2006 California gubernatorial election
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The 2006 California gubernatorial election occurred on November 7, 2006. The primary elections took place on June 6, 2006. The incumbent Republican Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, won re-election for his first and only full term. His main opponent was California State Treasurer Phil Angelides, the California Democratic Party nominee. Peter Camejo was the California Green Party nominee, Janice Jordan was the Peace and Freedom Party nominee, Art Olivier was the California Libertarian Party nominee, and Edward C. Noonan was the California American Independent Party nominee.

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Under the state constitution, the governor serves a four-year term, with a maximum or minimum term limit of two four-year terms for life, regardless of whether or not they are consecutive or nonconsecutive. Arnold Schwarzenegger was elected in a 2003 recall election and served out the remainder of predecessor Gray Davis's term ending in 2007; Schwarzenegger was therefore eligible to serve until 2011.[1] As of 2025, this and the concurrent Insurance Commissioner election mark the most recent time Republicans have won a statewide election in California, the most recent time a Republican was officially elected California governor, and the last election in which a California governor and lieutenant governor of opposite political parties were elected.

Exit polls showed Schwarzenegger won the vote of White (63%–32%) and Asian Americans (62%–37%), while Angelides won among African Americans (70%–27%) and Latinos (56%–39%).[citation needed]

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Primary election

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Bar graph of statewide results[2]

Results by county[3]

The period for candidate nominations closed on March 24, 2006.

Democratic

Candidates

The two front-runners for the Democratic nomination were Angelides and California State Controller Steve Westly. A pre-election poll had Westly leading Angelides by six percentage points.[4] The Field Poll conducted on April 17, 2006, showed that both Democratic candidates had low recognition factors amongst the state's electorate, with only 45% having any opinion on Angelides and 40% for Westly. Of registered Democrats surveyed, 59% said they didn't know enough about Angelides to have any opinion about him, with 58% saying the same for Westly.[5] The Los Angeles Times reported that the race for the Democratic nomination was a virtual tie, with Angelides leading Westly by three percentage points (37%–34%), within the 3% margin of error. Unusually, 28% of Democratic voters were undecided, and both candidates tried to earn the undecided vote.

Angelides reported a recent increase in support for his campaign and gained union support as well as support from the "core" liberal constituency. The California Democratic Party endorsed him prior to the primary, despite most polls showing that Westly would fare much better against Schwarzenegger in the general election.[6] However, many registered Democrats believed that Westly had a greater chance of winning against incumbent governor Schwarzenegger and felt that he had a slightly "more positive" image.[7] In the end, Angelides won 47.9% of the vote to Westly's 43.4%. The turnout for the primary, was a record low 33.6%,[8] far below the 38% predicted by the Secretary of State,[9] with the turnout of valid ballots cast on election day at 28%.[10]

Polling

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Results

Thumb
Democratic primary results by county
  Angelides
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Westly
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Thumb
Democratic primary results by congressional district
  Angelides
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Westly
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
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Republican

Candidates

Republican Schwarzenegger faced token opposition and won overwhelmingly in the primary held on June 6, 2006.

Results

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Minor parties

Green

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American Independent

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Libertarian

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Peace and Freedom

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General election

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Candidates

Campaign

Schwarzenegger's decision to call the 2005 special election, as well as his propositions dealing with teachers' and nurses' unions and other political missteps, brought his approval rating down to 39% by April 2006,[22] though he ended up solidly defeating his opponents. During his first two years, he came under fire from some conservatives for supporting several taxes on Californians,[23] and from some liberals for refusing to sign a bill allowing gay marriage, and his support for several controversial propositions in 2005. Later, Schwarzenegger's popularity with voters rebounded and he won reelection by a wide margin.

Predictions

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling

Schwarzenegger v Westly

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Results

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By county

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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Schwarzenegger won 37 of 53 congressional districts, including 13 held by Democrats.[55]

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By city

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Analysis

Results showed Schwarzenegger won 52 counties while Angelides won six; Schwarzenegger won an absolute majority in 48 counties and a plurality in four others, while Angelides won a majority in two counties and a plurality in four more. Schwarzenegger won large majorities in California's rural counties, the populous Southern California counties of San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura, as well as populous Sacramento, Fresno, and Kern counties in the Central Valley. The results were closely contested in Los Angeles County and in Bay Area suburban counties. Angelides won substantially only in Alameda and San Francisco counties.[53]

Contra Costa, Humboldt, Mendocino, Monterey, Napa, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma, and Yolo counties all voted for Schwarzenegger after voting No on the recall in 2003.

See also

Notes

  1. Republican margins are compared to the "Yes" margins from the 2003 recall vote, and Democratic margins are compared to the "No" margins from the 2003 recall vote.
  2. City recorded no votes in the 2003 recall election.
  3. California's Supplement to Statement of Vote recorded 19,378 fewer Schwarzenegger votes & 6,219 fewer Angelides votes compared to the initial statement of vote, making the Kern County & statewide vote totals lower here than elsewhere in this article.
  4. Statewide candidate vote percentages and the total vote number differ here because California's Supplement to Statement of Vote does not count write in votes as part of the city totals.
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References

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