2010 United States House of Representatives election in Delaware

The 2010 United States House of Representatives election in Delaware was held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent the state of Delaware in the United States House of Representatives for the 112th United States Congress. Democratic nominee former Lieutenant Governor, John Carney defeated Republican nominee Glen Urquhart, giving Delaware an all Democratic congressional delegation for the first time since before the 1942 midterms.^[1] This is the first open-seat election since 1992 and only the second since 1976.

2010 United States House of Representatives election in Delaware

← 2008 November 2, 2010 2012 →

Nominee John Carney Glen Urquhart Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 173,543 125,442 Percentage 56.78% 41.04%

County results House district results Carney:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Urquhart:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election Mike Castle Republican Elected U.S. Representative John Carney Democratic

Background

Further information: Delaware's at-large congressional district

Map of Delaware's at-large congressional district

The state of Delaware is completely contained in a single at-large district. The district has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+7.^[2] Since 1993, the district had been represented by Republican Michael Castle.

Castle announced in 2009 he would run for the United States Senate seat^[3] held by Ted Kaufman (D) who had been appointed to the seat when his predecessor, Joe Biden (D), resigned to become Vice President. Castle was defeated by Christine O'Donnell in the Delaware Republican Senate primary.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• John Carney, former Lieutenant Governor of Delaware

Results

Carney announced his candidacy on April 15, 2009, and was unopposed in the primary after Scott Spencer, a transportation consultant, dropped out.^[4][5]

Republican primary

Candidates

• Glen Urquhart, businessman
• Michele Rollins, businesswoman and former Miss District of Columbia USA and former Miss World America 1963
• Rose Izzo, columnist

Results

Republican primary results^[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Glen Urquhart	27,343	48.64
	Republican	Michele Rollins	26,789	47.66
	Republican	Rose Izzo	2,082	3.70
Total votes			56,214	100.00

General election

Campaign

According to a September 2010 poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind, "likely voters in Delaware split 45%-40% on whether they prefer[ed] to have the U.S. Congress controlled by the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, suggesting that the First State's open congressional seat might be hotly contested," yet in the same poll, Carney led Urquhart by 51%-36%.^[7] Peter Woolley, the poll director, remarked that "candidates matter, not just parties" and that in Delaware candidates matter "more than in most states."^[7]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Glen Urquhart (R)	John Carney (D)
Monmouth University[8]	October 25–27, 2010	44%	51%
Fairleigh Dickinson[9]	October 20–26, 2010	36%	53%
Monmouth University[10]	October 8–11, 2010	44%	53%
Fairleigh Dickinson[11]	September 27 – October 3, 2010	36%	51%
University of Delaware[12]	September 16–30, 2010	31%	48%
Wilson Research Strategies[13]	September 27–28, 2010	41%	45%
Grove Insight[14]	September 15–18, 2010	32%	50%
Public Policy Polling[15]	September 11–12, 2010	37%	48%
Public Policy Polling[16]	August 7–8, 2010	30%	48%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[17]	Likely D (flip)	November 1, 2010
Rothenberg[18]	Lean D (flip)	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19]	Lean D (flip)	November 1, 2010
RCP[20]	Lean D (flip)	November 1, 2010
CQ Politics[21]	Likely D (flip)	October 28, 2010
New York Times[22]	Lean D (flip)	November 1, 2010
FiveThirtyEight[22]	Safe D (flip)	November 1, 2010

Results

Delaware's at-large congressional district election, 2010^[23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Carney	173,543	56.78
	Republican	Glen Urquhart	125,442	41.04
	Independent Party	Earl R. Lofland	3,704	1.21
	Libertarian	Brent A. Wangen	1,986	0.65
	Blue Enigma	Jeffrey Brown	961	0.31
Total votes			305,636	100.00
	Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• New Castle (largest city: Wilmington)