2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run unsuccessfully for the seat in the U.S. Senate.^[1] A primary election was held on June 5, 2012.^[2] Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

← 2010 November 6, 2012 2014 →

Nominee Steve Daines Kim Gillan Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 255,468 204,939 Percentage 53.3% 42.7%

County results Daines:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Gillan:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election Denny Rehberg Republican Elected U.S. Representative Steve Daines Republican

Montana's at-large congressional district

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Eric Brosten, author and engineer^[4]
• Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine^[5]

Withdrawn

• John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.^[6][7]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Abarr	Steve Daines	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[8]	June 16–19, 2011	382	± 5.0%	14%	22%	—	64%

Results

Republican primary results^[9]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Steve Daines	82,843	71.2
	Republican	Eric Brosten	21,012	18.1
	Republican	Vincent Melkus	12,420	10.7
Total votes			116,275	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings^[10]

Eliminated in primary

• Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010^[11]
• Diane Smith, businesswoman^[12]
• Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member^[13]
• Rob Stutz, attorney^[14]
• Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation^[15]
• Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman^[16]

Declined

• Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010^[17]
• Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana^[18][19]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Gillan	Sam Rankin	Diane Smith	Dave Strohmaier	Rob Stutz	Jason Ward	Franke Wilmer	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]	April 26–29, 2012	332	± 5.4%	21%	4%	13%	9%	1%	0%	11%	41%

Results

Democratic primary results^[9]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kim Gillan	25,077	31.0
	Democratic	Franke Wilmer	14,836	18.4
	Democratic	Diane Smith	12,618	15.6
	Democratic	Dave Strohmaier	11,366	14.1
	Democratic	Sam Rankin	9,382	11.6
	Democratic	Jason Ward	4,959	6.1
	Democratic	Rob Stutz	2,586	3.2
Total votes			80,824	100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Kaiser^[21]

General election

Endorsements

Steve Daines (R)

Organizations

• National Republican Congressional Committee "Vanguard" Program^[22]

Kim Gillan (D)

Organizations

• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program^[23]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Kim Gillan (D)	David Kaiser (L)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[24]	November 2–3, 2012	737	± 3.6%	48%	44%	3%	4%
Mason-Dixon[25]	October 29–31, 2012	625	± 4.0%	51%	40%	1%	8%
Pharos Research Group[26]	October 26–28, 2012	799	± 4.9%	52%	45%	–	4%
Pharos Research Group[27]	October 19–21, 2012	400	± 4.9%	47%	41%	–	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[28]	October 8–10, 2012	737	± 3.6%	43%	34%	10%	12%
MSU-Billings[29]	September 27–30, 2012	477	± 4.6%	36%	23%	3%	38%
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)[30]	September 23–26, 2012	600	± 4.0%	36%	34%	5%	25%
Mason-Dixon[31]	September 17–19, 2012	625	± 4.0%	46%	38%	2%	14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[32]	September 10–11, 2012	656	± 3.8%	40%	37%	9%	15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[33]	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	33%	27%	—	40%
Public Policy Polling (D)[34]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	35%	27%	—	38%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Abarr (R)	Kim Gillan (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report)	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	30%	26%	—	44%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Abarr (R)	Franke Wilmer (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (report)	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	33%	25%	—	42%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Franke Wilmer (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[20]	April 26–29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	36%	25%	—	39%
Public Policy Polling[35]	June 16–19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	35%	25%	—	40%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[36]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[37]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[38]	Likely R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
NY Times[40]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP[41]	Likely R	November 4, 2012
The Hill[42]	Likely R	November 4, 2012

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2012^[43]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Steve Daines	255,468	53.25%	−7.16%
	Democratic	Kim Gillan	204,939	42.72%	+8.88%
	Libertarian	David Kaiser	19,333	4.03%	−1.71%
Total votes			479,740	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Missoula (Largest city: Missoula)
• Glacier (largest city: Cut Bank)
• Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
• Hill (largest city: Havre)
• Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)