2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

The 2014 congressional election in Montana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. Between 1993 and 2023, Montana had one at-large seat in the House.

2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

← 2012 November 4, 2014 2016 →

Nominee Ryan Zinke John Lewis Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 203,871 148,690 Percentage 55.4% 40.4%

County results Zinke:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Lewis:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election Steve Daines Republican Elected U.S. Representative Ryan Zinke Republican

Montana's at-large congressional district

Incumbent Republican Congressman Steve Daines was first elected in 2012. Instead of running for re-election, he successfully ran for the U.S. Senate election in 2014.^[1] Representatives are elected for two-year terms; the elected will serve in the 114th United States Congress from January 3, 2015, until January 3, 2017.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Elsie Arntzen, state representative^[2]
• Matt Rosendale, state senator^[3]
• Corey Stapleton, former state senator and candidate for governor in 2012^[4]
• Drew Turiano, real estate investor and candidate for Secretary of State of Montana in 2012^[5]
• Ryan Zinke, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2012^[6]

Withdrew

• Brad Johnson, former Secretary of State of Montana (running for Montana Public Service Commission)^[7]

Declined

• Steve Daines, incumbent U.S. Representative (running for the U.S. Senate)^[8]
• Champ Edmunds, state representative (running for the U.S. Senate)^[9]
• Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012^[10]
• Scott Reichner, state representative^[11]
• Jon Sonju, state senator and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2012^[11]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brad Johnson	Matthew Rosendale	Corey Stapleton	Ryan Zinke	Other	Undecided
PPP[12]	November 15–17, 2013	469	±4.5%	20%	9%	32%	9%	—	31%

Primary results

Republican primary results^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ryan Zinke	43,766	33.25
	Republican	Corey Stapleton	38,591	29.32
	Republican	Matt Rosendale	37,965	28.84
	Republican	Elsie Arntzen	9,011	6.85
	Republican	Drew Turiano	2,290	1.74
Total votes			131,623	100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• John Driscoll, former Public Service Commissioner, former Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives and nominee for the seat in 2008^[14]
• John Lewis, former state director for U.S. Senator Max Baucus^[15]

Withdrew

• Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for the seat in 2010^[16]

Declined

• Pam Bucy, Montana Commissioner of Labor and Industry and nominee for Attorney General of Montana in 2012^[17]
• Shane Colton, attorney and former commissioner of the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks^[17]
• Amanda Curtis, state representative^[18]
• John Engen, Mayor of Missoula^[19]
• Kim Gillan, state senator and nominee for the seat in 2012^[20][21]
• Denise Juneau, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction^[22]
• Jesse Laslovich, former state senator, Chief Legal Counsel to Montana State Auditor Monica Lindeen and candidate for Attorney General of Montana in 2012^[17]
• Monica Lindeen, Montana State Auditor^[23]
• Kendall Van Dyk, state senator^[24]
• John Walsh, United States Senator former Lieutenant Governor of Montana and former Adjutant General of the Montana National Guard (running for the U.S. Senate)^[25]
• Carol Williams, former Majority Leader of the Montana State Senate^[26]
• John Patrick Williams, former U.S. Representative^[26]
• Whitney Williams, former director of operations for Hillary Clinton^[26]
• Franke Wilmer, state representative^[27]

Endorsements

John Lewis

• Max Baucus, former U.S. Senator (D-MT)^[28]
• Steve Bullock, Governor of Montana^[28]
• Jon Tester, U.S. Senator (D-MT)^[28]

Primary results

Democratic primary results^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Lewis	42,588	59.84
	Democratic	John Driscoll	28,580	40.16
Total votes			71,168	100

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

• Mike Fellows, businessman and chair of the Libertarian Party of Montana^[29]

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

• Shawn White Wolf, counselor for the Montana United Indian Association and candidate for the Montana House of Representatives in 2010^[30]

General election

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ryan Zinke (R)	John Lewis (D)	Mike Fellows (L)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing[31]	October 23–24, 2014	604	± 4%	53%	41%	—	6%
The MSU-Billings Poll[32]	October 6–11, 2014	410	± 5%	40%	33%	2%	25%
Gravis Marketing[33]	September 29–30, 2014	535	± 4%	51%	41%	—	8%
Vox Populi Polling[34]	August 3–4, 2014	798	± 3.5%	44%	37%	—	19%
Gravis Marketing[35]	July 20–22, 2014	741	± 4%	47%	35%	6%	11%
Public Policy Polling[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	37%	32%	—	30%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Brad Johnson (R)	John Lewis (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	43%	32%	—	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Matthew Rosendale (R)	John Lewis (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	37%	32%	—	31%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Corey Stapleton (R)	John Lewis (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[36]	November 15–17, 2013	952	± 3.2%	44%	31%	—	25%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[37]	Likely R	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg[38]	Safe R	October 24, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[39]	Likely R	October 30, 2014
RCP	Likely R	November 2, 2014
Daily Kos Elections[40]	Safe R	November 4, 2014

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2014^[41]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Ryan Zinke	203,871	55.41%	+2.16%
	Democratic	John Lewis	148,690	40.41%	−2.13%
	Libertarian	Mike Fellows	15,402	4.18%	+0.15%
Total votes			367,963	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Hill (largest city: Havre)

See also

• United States Senate election in Montana, 2014
• 2014 United States House of Representatives elections
• 2014 United States elections