2015 Aragonese regional election

A regional election was held in Aragon on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 67 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

2015 Aragonese regional election

← 2011 24 May 2015 2019 →
All 67 seats in the Cortes of Aragon 34 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	1,020,106 0.4%
Turnout	676,654 (66.3%) 1.6 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Luisa Fernanda Rudi Javier Lambán Pablo Echenique Party PP PSOE Podemos Leader since 8 November 2008 31 March 2012 14 February 2015 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza Last election 30 seats, 39.7% 22 seats, 29.0% Did not contest Seats won 21 18 14 Seat change 9 4 14 Popular vote 183,654 143,096 137,325 Percentage 27.5% 21.4% 20.6% Swing 12.2 pp 7.6 pp New party   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Arturo Aliaga Susana Gaspar José Luis Soro Party PAR C's CHA Leader since 29 November 2014 14 March 2015 10 February 2012 Leader's seat Zaragoza Zaragoza Zaragoza Last election 7 seats, 9.2% Did not contest 4 seats, 8.2% Seats won 6 5 2 Seat change 1 5 2 Popular vote 45,846 62,907 30,618 Percentage 6.9% 9.4% 4.6% Swing 2.3 pp New party 3.6 pp
Constituency results map for the Cortes of Aragon
President before election Luisa Fernanda Rudi PP Elected President Javier Lambán PSOE

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Aragon were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Aragon, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Aragonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Aragon and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Aragonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[2]

The 67 members of the Cortes of Aragon were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 13 seats and the remaining 28 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in the most populated province did not exceed 2.75 times that of the least populated one).^[1][3]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:^[4]

Seats	Constituencies
35	Zaragoza
18	Huesca
14	Teruel

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.^[5]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Aragon expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Aragon, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 21 June 2015.^[1][3][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Aragon and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[1]

The Cortes of Aragon were officially dissolved on 31 March 2015 after the publication of the dissolution decree in the BOA, setting the election date for 24 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 18 June.^[4]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.^[7]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	30	30
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	22	22
	Aragonese Parliamentary Group		PAR	7	7
	Aragonese Union Parliamentary Group		CHA	4	4
	United Left of Aragon Parliamentary Group		IU	4	4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[3][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Luisa Fernanda Rudi	Conservatism Christian democracy	39.7%	30		[8]
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Javier Lambán	Social democracy	29.0%	22		[9]
	PAR	List Aragonese Party (PAR)		Arturo Aliaga	Regionalism Centrism	9.2%	7		[10]
	CHA	List Aragonese Union (CHA)		José Luis Soro	Aragonese nationalism Eco-socialism	8.2%	4		[11]
	IU	List United Left of Aragon (IU) – Communist Party of Aragon (PCE–A) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) – Open Left (IzAb)		Patricia Luquin	Socialism Communism	6.2%	4		[12]
	UPyD	List Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)		José Luis Lajara	Social liberalism Radical centrism	2.3%	0
	Podemos	List We Can (Podemos)		Pablo Echenique	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	—			[13]
	C's	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)		Susana Gaspar	Liberalism	—			[14]

Campaign

Election debates

2015 Aragonese regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present[a]    S  Surrogate[b]    NI  Not invited
			PP	PSOE	PAR	CHA	IU	UPyD	Podemos	Audience	Ref.
11 May	Aragón TV	Pepe Quílez	P Rudi	P Lambán	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	11.4% (59,000)	[15] [16]
15 May	Aragón TV	Pepe Quílez	S Bermúdez	S Sada	P Aliaga	P Soro	P Luquin	P Lajara	P Echenique	6.4% (31,000)	[17] [18]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 34 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Aragon.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout									Lead
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	66.3	27.5 21	21.4 18	6.9 6	4.6 2	4.2 1	0.9 0	20.6 14	9.4 5	6.1
TNS Demoscopia/RTVE–FORTA[p 1]	24 May 2015	?	?	27.6 20/23	20.6 16/18	6.3 5/6	5.6 2/3	3.4 1/2	–	21.0 14/16	10.4 7/8	6.6
GAD3/Antena 3[p 2]	11–22 May 2015	?	?	? 20/22	? 16/17	? 3/5	? 2/3	? 2	–	? 12/13	? 8/9	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 3][p 4][p 5]	17 May 2015	550	?	30.2 23/24	25.1 19/20	6.1 4/5	5.7 2/3	5.5 2/3	1.0 0	11.2 8/9	12.5 7/8	5.1
Metroscopia/El País[p 6][p 7]	4–5 May 2015	1,000	75.6	23.9 19	21.9 16	3.0 3	2.9 1	7.0 4	–	22.5 14	15.9 10	1.4
Intercampo/Podemos[p 8][p 9]	15–30 Apr 2015	1,800	?	24.0– 28.0	19.0– 20.0	3.0– 5.0	2.0– 4.0	1.0– 3.0	1.0– 2.0	23.0– 26.0	19.0– 20.0	1.0– 2.0
GAD3/ABC[p 10][p 11][p 12]	20–29 Apr 2015	1,000	?	28.4 19/22	21.1 15/16	4.6 3/4	3.9 2/3	5.3 2/3	0.8 0	15.7 10/12	16.2 11/12	7.3
CIS[p 13][p 14]	23 Mar–20 Apr 2015	1,586	?	29.7 23/24	22.4 17	5.7 4	5.0 2	5.4 3	1.5 0	14.1 9	12.9 8/9	7.3
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 15][p 16]	6–17 Apr 2015	2,000	?	28.0 19/22	20.9 15/18	8.3 4/7	7.2 3/4	5.0 1/2	0.9 0	14.9 11/14	11.3 7/11	7.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 17][p 18][p 19]	20 Mar–9 Apr 2015	550	?	30.8 23/24	26.4 20/21	6.8 4/5	6.3 2/3	4.3 1/2	1.1 0	11.5 8/9	10.4 7/8	4.4
Llorente & Cuenca[p 20]	31 Oct 2014	?	?	? 21/25	? 17/19	? 6/7	? 2/6	? 4/6	? 2	? 9/14	–	?
2014 EP election[p 21]	25 May 2014	—	45.7	27.9 (24)	24.3 (21)	–	4.5 (2)	9.4 (7)	8.5 (5)	9.5 (7)	2.9 (1)	3.6
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 22][p 23][p 24]	10 Mar–3 Apr 2014	2,000	56.0	31.2 22/26	29.6 21/25	7.0 4/6	6.8 4/7	9.3 6/9	8.5 5/8	–	–	1.6
NC Report/La Razón[p 25][p 26]	15 Oct–12 Nov 2013	?	?	? 27/28	? 21/22	? 6/7	? 6/7	? 6/7	? 0/2	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 27][p 28][p 29]	15 Apr–10 May 2013	300	?	36.3 28/29	27.1 21/22	? 6/7	? 4/5	? 4/5	–	–	–	9.2
A+M/Heraldo de Aragón[p 30][p 31]	23 Apr 2013	?	53.1	32.2 23/26	28.7 21/24	8.4 6/9	10.1 6/9	9.7 5/8	3.8 1/3	–	–	3.5
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	71.0	47.7 (36)	31.5 (23)	[c]	[d]	10.5 (6)	5.8 (2)	–	–	16.2
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—	67.9	39.7 30	29.0 22	9.2 7	8.2 4	6.2 4	2.3 0	–	–	10.7

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									?	N	Lead
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	18.5	14.4	4.6	3.1	2.8	0.6	13.8	6.3	—	31.7	4.1
CIS[p 13]	23 Mar–20 Apr 2015	1,586	14.1	13.0	1.4	1.5	3.2	0.5	11.0	7.1	37.8	8.0	1.1
2014 EP election	25 May 2014	—	12.9	11.2	–	2.1	4.3	3.9	4.4	1.3	—	53.1	1.7
2011 general election	20 Nov 2011	—	34.1	22.5	[c]	[d]	7.5	4.1	–	–	—	27.4	11.6
2011 regional election	22 May 2011	—	27.2	19.8	6.3	5.6	4.2	1.6	–	–	—	30.6	7.4

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 13]	23 Mar–20 Apr 2015	1,586	18.4	17.6	2.1	2.2	4.1	0.7	13.1	9.0	7.0	25.8	0.8

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size								Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS[p 13]	23 Mar–20 Apr 2015	1,586	29.5	25.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	3.3	0.8	2.0	38.9	4.4

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Aragon.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Rudi PP	Lambán PSOE	Aliaga PAR	Soro CHA	Luquin IU	Lajara UPyD	Echenique Podemos	Gaspar C's
CIS[p 13]	23 Mar–20 Apr 2015	1,586	20.2	10.8	2.2	1.3	2.0	0.1	5.1	2.2	1.8	54.3	9.4

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Cortes of Aragon election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	183,654	27.50	−12.19	21	−9
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	143,096	21.43	−7.59	18	−4
	We Can (Podemos)	137,325	20.56	New	14	+14
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)	62,907	9.42	New	5	+5
	Aragonese Party (PAR)	45,846	6.86	−2.29	6	−1
	Aragonese Union (CHA)	30,618	4.58	−3.65	2	−2
	United Left of Aragon (IU)	28,184	4.22	−1.94	1	−3
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	5,708	0.85	−1.46	0	±0
	Blank Seats (EB)	5,323	0.80	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	4,946	0.74	+0.42	0	±0
	Commitment with Aragon (CCA)	2,844	0.43	−0.12	0	±0
	Equo (Equo)	1,256	0.19	New	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	1,082	0.16	New	0	±0
	Federation of Independents of Aragon (FIA)	648	0.10	−0.04	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	616	0.09	New	0	±0
	Aragonese Bloc (BAR)	581	0.09	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		13,224	1.98	−1.21
Total		667,858			67	±0
Valid votes		667,858	98.70	+0.20
Invalid votes		8,796	1.30	−0.20
Votes cast / turnout		676,654	66.33	−1.57
Abstentions		343,452	33.67	+1.57
Registered voters		1,020,106
Sources[7][19][20]

Popular vote PP   27.50% PSOE   21.43% Podemos   20.56% C's   9.42% PAR   6.86% CHA   4.58% IU   4.22% Others   3.44% Blank ballots   1.98%

Seats PP   31.34% PSOE   26.87% Podemos   20.90% PAR   8.96% C's   7.46% CHA   2.99% IU   1.49%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PP		PSOE		Podemos		C's		PAR		CHA		IU
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Huesca	26.2	5	26.4	6	18.6	4	8.4	1	9.2	2	3.1	−	3.3	−
Teruel	27.5	5	22.0	4	16.1	2	7.2	1	13.7	2	3.4	−	4.6	−
Zaragoza	27.8	11	20.1	8	21.7	8	10.0	3	5.2	2	5.1	2	4.4	1
Total	27.5	21	21.4	18	20.6	14	9.4	5	6.9	6	4.6	2	4.2	1
Sources[7][19][20]

Aftermath

Further information: First government of Javier Lambán

Investiture Javier Lambán (PSOE)
Ballot →		3 July 2015
Required majority →		34 out of 67 Y
	Yes • PSOE (18) • Podemos (14) • CHA (2) • IU (1)	35 / 67
	No • PP (21) • PAR (6) • C's (5)	32 / 67
	Abstentions	0 / 67
	Absentees	0 / 67
Sources[7]

Notes

1. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
2. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
3. Within PP.
4. Within IU.