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2018 California gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2018 California gubernatorial election
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The 2018 California gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of California, concurrently with elections for the rest of California's executive branch, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic governor Jerry Brown was ineligible to run for re-election for a third consecutive (and fifth non-consecutive) term due to term limits from the Constitution of California. The race was between the incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Gavin Newsom and businessman John H. Cox, a Republican, who qualified for the general election after placing first and second in the June 5, 2018, primary election.

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Newsom won in a landslide, with 62% of the vote, the biggest victory in a gubernatorial race in California since Earl Warren won re-election in 1950, and the biggest victory for a non-incumbent since 1930; Newsom received almost eight million votes.[1] The election also marked the first time in 40 years since Orange County had voted for the Democratic candidate since Jerry Brown won it in 1978, and the first time Democrats won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state's history. Newsom was sworn in on January 7, 2019.

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Candidates

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A primary election was held on June 5, 2018. Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party. Voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers – regardless of party – advance to the general election in November, regardless of whether a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election.

Democratic Party

Declared

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

Green Party

Declared

  • Christopher Carlson, puppeteer[4]
  • Veronika Fimbres (write-in)[36]
  • Josh Jones, author, geologist, solar electric designer[4]

Peace and Freedom Party

Declared

Independent (no party)

Declared

Notes

  1. American Solidarity Party does not have ballot access. Desmond Silveira (ASP) appears on ballot as "No party preference".[60]
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Primary election

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From the latter half of 2017, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom was widely seen as the favored front runner for the top two primary. Businessman John Cox and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa had both been running closely behind Newsom to obtain the second place spot. However, in late 2017, as more prominent Democrats entered the race, Villaraigosa saw his polling numbers slip out of competition with Cox. This mainly left the race between Newsom and Cox, with a third place free-for-all between Allen and Villaraigosa.

Endorsements

Travis Allen (R)

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Individuals

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

  • California Republican Assembly[68]
John Chiang (D)

Federal elected officials

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Individuals

Delaine Eastin (D)

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Josh Jones (G)

Individuals

Desmond Silveira (ASP)

Individuals

Organizations

Antonio Villaraigosa (D)

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Individuals

Nickolas Wildstar (L)

Individuals

Organizations

Zoltan Istvan (L)

Polling

Graphical summary

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Notes
  1. Other 5%, Undecided 10%
  2. Other 4%, Undecided 7%
  3. Other 4%, Undecided 19%
  4. Amanda Renteria (D), Robert C. Newman (R), Shubham Goel (NPP) with 1%, all other candidates 0%, Undecided 13%
  5. Other 4%, Undecided 13%
  6. Thomas Jefferson Cares (D), Robert C. Newman (R), Klement Tinaj (D) with 1%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), Christopher Carlson (G), Yvonne Girard (R), Shubham Goel (NPP), Robert Davidson Griffis (D), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Gloria La Riva (PFP), Peter Yuan Liu (R), Albert Caesar Mezzetti (D), Hakan "Hawk" Mikado (NPP), Amanda Renteria (D), Michael Shellenberger (D), Desmond Silveira (ASP), Jeffrey Edward Taylor (NPP), Johnny Wattenburg (NPP), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  7. Other 1%, Undecided 16%
  8. Akinyemi Agbede (D), Robert Davidson Griffis (D), Amanda Renteria (D), and Gloria La Riva (PFP) with 1%; Juan Bribiesca (D), Thomas Jefferson Cares (D), Albert Caesar Mezzetti (D), Michael Shellenberger (D), Klement Tinaj (D), Christopher Carlson (G), Josh Jones (G), Zoltan Istvan (L), Nickolas Wildstar (L), Yvonne Girard (R), Robert C. Newman (R), Shubham Goel (NPP), Hakan "Hawk" Mikado (NPP), Desmond Silveira (ASP), Jeffrey Edward Taylor (NPP), Johnny Wattenburg (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%; Not voting 0%; Undecided 39%
  9. Albert Mezzetti (D) 2%, Undecided 13%
  10. Amanda Renteria (D) 0%, Undecided 16%
  11. Robert Newman (R) 4%, Amanda Renteria (D) 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 17%
  12. Other 3%, Undecided 13%
  13. Undecided 28%
  14. Other 1%, Undecided 22%
  15. Robert Newman (R) 3%; Yvonne Girard (R) and Robert Kleinberger* (NPP) with 2%; Daniel Amare* (R), Brian Domingo* (R), Peter Yuan Liu (R), Michael Bracamontes* (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 1%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Harmesh Kumar* (D), and James Tran* (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%l; Undecided 21%. *Withdrawn.
  16. Amanda Renteria (D) 2%, Other 6%, Undecided 16%
  17. Other 1%, Undecided 24%
  18. Amanda Renteria (D) 4%, Undecided 12%
  19. Doug Ose* (R) 4%, Other 29%. *Withdrawn.
  20. Doug Ose* (R) 3%. *Withdrawn.
  21. Doug Ose* (R) 3%, Someone else 1%, Undecided 24%. *Withdrawn.
  22. Doug Ose* (R) 4%, Someone else 4%, Undecided 18%. *Withdrawn.
  23. Robert Newman (R), Doug Ose* (R), Tom Steyer† (D), Peter Thiel† (R), and Steve Westly† (D) with 2%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Daniel Amare* (R), Stasyi Barth* (R), Michael Bracamontes* (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), Brian Domingo* (R), Yvonne Girard (R), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Robert Kleinberger* (NPP), Harmesh Kumar* (D), Peter Yuan Liu (R), James Tran* (NPP), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 1%; Michael Bilger* (NPP), Andy Blanch* (NPP), Scooter Braun† (D), John-Leslie Brown* (R), David Bush* (NPP), Christopher Carlson (G), Peter Crawford-Valentino* (NPP), Ted Crisell* (D), Grant Handzlik* (NPP), Analila Joya* (NPP), Joshua Laine* (AIP), Chad Mayes† (R), Jacob Morris* (R), Timothy Richardson* (NPP), Boris Romanowsky* (NPP), Michael Shellenberger (D), H. Fuji Shioura* (NPP), Laura Smith* (R), Scot Sturtevant* (NPP), Ashley Swearengin† (R), Klement Tinaj (D), and Frédéric Prinz von Anhalt* (NPP) with 0%; Other with 29%. *Withdrawn. †Hypothetical candidate.
  24. Other 1%, Undecided 28%
  25. Other 1%, Undecided 30%
  26. 1,070 likely primary voters out of 1,504. MoE out of 1,504: ± 3.0. 22% out of 1,504 not voting.
  27. Other 6%
  28. Undecided 33%
  29. David Hadley* (R) 7%, Undecided 37%. *Withdrawn.
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

with Kevin Faulconer and Eric Garcetti

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
  Newsom—60–70%
  Newsom—50–60%
  Newsom—40–50%
  Newsom—30–40%
  Newsom—20–30%
  Cox—20–30%
  Cox—30–40%
  Cox—40–50%
  Villaraigosa—30–40%
Thumb
Results by congressional district:
  Newsom—50–60%
  Newsom—40–50%
  Newsom—30–40%
  Newsom—20–30%
  Cox—20–30%
  Cox—30–40%
  Cox—40–50%
  Villaraigosa—20–30%
  Villaraigosa—30–40%
  Villaraigosa—40–50%
More information Party, Candidate ...

Results by county

Red represents counties won by Cox. Blue represents counties won by Newsom. Green represents counties won by Villaraigosa.[166]

More information County, Newsom % ...
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General election

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Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Notes
  1. Delaine Eastin (D) and Steve Westly with 2%, Undecided with 21%
  2. Alex Padilla (D) 3%, Undecided 13%
  3. Alex Padilla (D) 4%, Steve Westly (D) 1%, Undecided 25%
  4. Alex Padilla (D) 4%, Undecided 22%
  5. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

John H. Cox (R)

Federal officials

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Gavin Newsom (D)

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State-level officials

Local-level officials

Organizations

Individuals

Newspapers

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

with Newsom and Chiang

with Newsom and Villaraigosa

with Villaraigosa and Garcetti

Results

Newsom won the general election by the largest margin of any California gubernatorial candidate since Earl Warren's re-election in 1950. In addition to winning the traditional Democratic strongholds of the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, Sacramento, and North Coast, Newsom performed well in the traditionally swing Central Coast, San Bernardino County, and San Diego County, as well as narrowly winning traditionally Republican Orange County – the latter voting for a Democrat for the first time in a gubernatorial election since Jerry Brown's first re-election in 1978. Cox did well in the state's more rural areas, even flipping Stanislaus County; Stanislaus is the only county that voted for Brown in 2014 but flipped to Cox in 2018. Cox also narrowly won Fresno County and Riverside County in the Inland Empire in addition to handily winning traditionally Republican Kern County in the Central Valley.

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

Blue represents counties won by Newsom. Red represents counties won by Cox.[250]

More information County, Gavin Newsom Democratic ...
Thumb
Thumb

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Newsom won 42 of 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Cox, including four that elected Democrats.[251]

More information District, Newsom ...

By city

More information City, County ...

Cities & Unincorporated Areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Cities & Unincorporated Areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Voter demographics

More information Demographic subgroup, Newsom ...
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See also

Notes

  1. For Lassen County, California's Supplement to Statement of Vote contains a tabulation error where when combining the city totals, Newsom has 110 more votes than the county total & Cox has 367 more votes than the county total.
  2. For Nevada County, California's Supplement to Statement of Vote contains a tabulation error where when combining the city totals, Newsom has 3,738 more votes than the county total & Cox has 1,867 more votes than the county total.
  3. For Tuolumne County, California's Supplement to Statement of Vote contains a tabulation error where when combining the city totals, Newsom has 628 more votes than the county total & Cox has 719 more votes than the county total.
  4. Due to tabulation errors in Lassen, Nevada, & Tuolumne counties making the city totals add up to more than the official county totals, Newsom has 4,476 more votes here than officially recorded statewide.
  5. Due to tabulation errors in Lassen, Nevada, & Tuolumne counties making the city totals add up to more than the official county totals, Cox has 2,953 more votes here than officially recorded statewide.
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References

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