2018 Kansas gubernatorial election

2018 Kansas gubernatorial election
Turnout	57.6%
	Kelly: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% ; Kobach: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: No vote:
Governor before election; Jeff Colyer; Republican	Elected Governor ; Laura Kelly; Democratic

The 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Kansas.

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On July 26, 2017, Governor Sam Brownback was nominated by President Donald Trump to serve as United States Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom. He was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 24, 2018;^[2]^[3] he resigned the governorship on January 31 and was succeeded by Lieutenant Governor Jeff Colyer.^[4] Colyer was eligible to seek a full term and announced his candidacy prior to becoming Governor of Kansas. In the August 7 primary, Colyer ran against CPA and incumbent Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer, Topeka doctor and 2006 Republican Kansas gubernatorial nominee Jim Barnett, and Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach.

On August 7, 2018, Kobach defeated Colyer in the Republican gubernatorial primary by an initial margin of 191 votes,^[5] a lead that increased to 361 votes by August 14, although discrepancies in some counties needed resolution and provisional and absentee ballots may not have been counted in some counties.^[6]^[7]^[8] Colyer conceded the Republican nomination after the final votes were tallied, in which Kobach's margin grew slightly.^[9] State Senator Laura Kelly easily won the Democratic nomination^[10] and won the general election, assuming office on January 14, 2019. Businessman Greg Orman, who finished second as an independent in the 2014 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Republican Pat Roberts, ran for governor as an independent candidate.^[11]

As, aside from a two-term limit for incumbents, the Constitution of Kansas places no limitations of any kind on who may seek the office, several teenagers (including one who had never been to the state), filed to run for governor, drawing media attention.^[12] A debate took place on September 5 between the three candidates that consistently polled above 5%.^[13] Polls in late August had Kelly and Kobach running close with Orman polling in the single digits.^[14]

Kelly's win continued a streak of party turnover for governor of Kansas, as Kansas has not elected two consecutive governors of the same party since William Avery succeeded fellow Republican John Anderson Jr. following the 1964 election, and neither major party has held the governorship for longer than eight consecutive years since Republican John McCuish left office in 1957.^[15]

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Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Barnett	Jeff Colyer	Wink Hartman	Kris Kobach	Ken Selzer	Other	Undecided
Remington (R)^[38]	August 3–5, 2018	2,769	± 2.0%	14%	34%	–	32%	9%	3%^[39]	10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)^[40]	July 30 – August 2, 2018	1,546	± 2.4%	11%	36%	–	43%	5%	4%^[39]	–
Remington (R)^[41]	August 2, 2018	859	± 3.3%	13%	32%	–	32%	9%	3%^[39]	11%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach)^[42]	July 24–26, 2018	500	± 4.4%	11%	25%	–	34%	8%	2%^[43]	20%
Remington (R)^[44]	May 14–15, 2018	1,441	± 2.6%	9%	29%	–	27%	5%	–	30%
JMC Analytics (R-Kobach)^[45]	March 15–17, 2018	500	± 4.4%	10%	18%	–	31%	4%	–	36%
Remington (R)^[46]	February 13–14, 2018	1,806	± 2.3%	8%	23%	5%	21%	3%	3%^[47]	37%
Moore Information (R)^[48]	February 11, 2018	–	–	–	20%	6%	26%	11%	–	38%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kris Kobach	128,838	40.62
	Republican	Jeff Colyer (incumbent)	128,488	40.51
	Republican	Jim Barnett	27,993	8.83
	Republican	Ken Selzer	24,807	7.82
	Republican	Patrick Kucera	3,212	1.01
	Republican	Tyler Ruzich	2,276	0.72
	Republican	Joseph Tutera Jr.	1,559	0.49
Total votes			317,173	100.0

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Arden Andersen	Jack Bergeson	Carl Brewer	Laura Kelly	Josh Svaty	Undecided
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly)^[69]	June 5–7, 2018	500	± 4.4%	3%	2%	22%	35%	12%	25%
GBA Strategies (D-Kelly)^[69]	June 5–7, 2018	500	± 4.4%	–	–	25%	44%	12%	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Laura Kelly	Josh Svaty	Jim Ward	Undecided
Expedition Strategies (D-Ward)^[70]	March 4–8, 2018	–	± 4.4%	17%	7%	19%	57%
Moore Information (R)^[48]	February 11, 2018	–	–	39%	–	20%	42%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Laura Kelly	78,746	51.5
	Democratic	Carl Brewer	30,693	20.1
	Democratic	Josh Svaty	26,722	17.5
	Democratic	Arden Andersen	12,845	8.4
	Democratic	Jack Bergeson	3,850	2.5
Total votes			152,856	100.0

2018 Kansas gubernatorial election

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Independent candidates

Candidates

On the ballot

Write-in

Failed to qualify

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Nominated

Withdrew

General election

Predictions

Debates

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Maps

References

External links

Wikiwand - on

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[89]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[90]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[91]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[92]	Tossup	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[93]	Lean D (flip)	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[94]	Tossup	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[95]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Fox News^[96]^[a]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Politico^[97]	Tossup	November 5, 2018
Governing^[98]	Tossup	November 5, 2018

Dates	Location	Kelly	Kobach	Orman	Link
September 6, 2018	Overland Park, Kansas	Participant	Participant	Participant	Full debate - YouTube
October 30, 2018	Wichita, Kansas	Participant	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kris Kobach (R)	Laura Kelly (D)	Greg Orman (I)	Jeff Caldwell (L)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College^[148]	October 26–28, 2018	976	± 3.3%	44%	43%	8%	–	1%	4%
Ipsos^[149]	October 17–27, 2018	986	± 3.6%	41%	43%	9%	–	2%	5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies)^[150]	October 19–20, 2018	698	± 3.7%	41%	41%	10%	2%	0%^[151]	6%
Remington (R)^[152]	September 30 – October 1, 2018	1,680	± 2.4%	41%	42%	10%	2%	1%^[153]	4%
Emerson College^[154]	September 26–28, 2018	938	± 3.5%	37%	36%	9%	–	3%	15%
Fort Hays State University^[155]	August 22 – September 25, 2018	324	–	36%	40%	10%	–	5%	–
Civiqs (D-Crawford County Dems)^[156]	September 21–24, 2018	1,178	± 3.4%	39%	41%	9%	5%	0%^[151]	5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Pottawatomie County Dems)^[157]	September 12–13, 2018	618	–	39%	38%	9%	1%	2%^[158]	12%
Public Policy Polling (D-KNEA PAC)^[159]	August 24–26, 2018	877	–	39%	38%	9%	1%	2%^[158]	11%
Remington (R)^[160]	July 19–20, 2018	1,189	± 2.9%	35%	36%	12%	–	–	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kris Kobach (R)	Laura Kelly (D)	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund)^[161]	October 2018	785	± 3.1%	49%	47%	–
Public Policy Polling (D-Western States Strategies)^[150]	October 17–21, 2018	698	± 3.7%	44%	48%	8%
Public Policy Polling^[162]	September 12–13, 2018	618	–	47%	46%	8%
Triton Polling & Research (I-Grow Kansas Action Fund)^[163]	August 2018	–	–	46%	46%	8%