2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022.^[2] Governor Laura Kelly won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the general election by a margin of roughly 2.2 percentage points. This was the only statewide victory in 2022 for Democrats in Kansas.

2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout	47.94% [1]
Nominee Laura Kelly Derek Schmidt Party Democratic Republican Running mate David Toland Katie Sawyer Popular vote 499,849 477,591 Percentage 49.54% 47.33%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Kelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Schmidt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Pyle:      60–70%      >90% Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election Laura Kelly Democratic Elected Governor Laura Kelly Democratic

This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2022 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election, and the race was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation. Some analysts and Kansas Republican Party officials had also predicted that Dennis Pyle, who was on the ballot as an independent, would have a spoiler effect benefiting Kelly.^[3][4] This was the first gubernatorial election in Kansas since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.^[5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Laura Kelly, incumbent governor (2019–present)^[6]
  • Running mate: David Toland, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present) and Secretary of Commerce (2019–present)^[6]

Eliminated in primary

• Richard Karnowski, accountant^[7]
  • Running mate: Barry Franco^[7]

Laura Kelly

State officials

• Sandy Praeger, former Kansas Insurance Commissioner (Republican)^[8]
• Gary Sherrer, former lieutenant governor of Kansas (Republican)^[9]

State legislators

• Audrey Langworthy, former state senator (Republican)^[9]
• Steve Morris, former president of the Kansas Senate (Republican)^[9]
• Lana Oleen, former state senator (Republican)^[9]
• Charles Roth, state representative (Republican)^[9]
• Sheryl Spalding, former state representative (Republican)^[9]

Organization

• EMILY's List^[10]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[11]

Results

Results by county:

  Kelly

•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   90–100%

Democratic primary results^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Laura Kelly (incumbent) David Toland (incumbent)	270,968	93.84
	Democratic	Richard Karnowski Barry Franco	17,802	6.16
Total votes			288,770	100

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General (2011–2023)^[13]
  • Running mate: Katie Sawyer, political staffer^[7]

Eliminated in primary

• Arlyn Briggs, perennial candidate^[7]
  • Running mate: Lance Berland, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020^[7]

Withdrew

• Jeff Colyer, former governor (2018–2019) and former lieutenant governor (2011–2018) (endorsed Schmidt)^[14]
• Chase LaPorte, businessman^[15][16]

Declined

• Wink Hartman, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2018^[17]
• Kris Kobach, former Kansas Secretary of State (2011–2019), nominee for governor in 2018, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2020 (running for Kansas Attorney General)^[18]
• Jerry Moran, U.S. senator (2011–present) (running for re-election)^[19][20]
• Ron Ryckman Jr., Speaker of the Kansas House of Representatives (2017–2023) from the 78th District (2013–2023) (endorsed Schmidt)^[21]

Endorsements

Derek Schmidt

U.S. executive branch officials

• Mike Pompeo, former United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), and former U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)^[17]
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)^[22][23]

U.S. senators

• Bob Dole, former U.S. senator from Kansas (1969–1996), former Senate Majority Leader (1985–1987, 1995–1996) and Republican nominee for president in 1996 and Vice President in 1976 (Deceased)^[24]
• Roger Marshall, U.S. senator from Kansas (2021–present) (previously endorsed Colyer)^[25]
• Pat Roberts, former U.S. senator from Kansas (1997–2021)^[26]

U.S. representatives

• Ron Estes, U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2017–present)^[27]
• Jake LaTurner, U.S. representative for Kansas's 2nd congressional district (2021–present)^[27]
• Tracey Mann, U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district (2021–present) and former lieutenant governor of Kansas (2018–2019)^[27]

State officials

• Jeff Colyer, former governor of Kansas (2018–2019) and former lieutenant governor (2011–2018)^[14]
• Mike Parson, governor of Missouri (2018–present)^[28]
• Ron Ryckman Jr., Speaker of the Kansas House of Representatives (2017–present) from the 78th district (2013–present)^[21]

Organizations

• American Conservative Union^[29]
• Americans for Prosperity-Kansas^[30]
• Kansas Farm Bureau PAC^[31]
• Kansas Republican Party^[27]
• NRA Political Victory Fund^[32][33]

Jeff Colyer (withdrew)

U.S. representatives

• Tracey Mann, U.S. representative for Kansas's 1st congressional district (2021–present) and former lieutenant governor of Kansas (2018–2019)^[34] (endorsed Schmidt after Colyer's withdrawal)

Declined to endorse

U.S. senators

• Jerry Moran, U.S. senator from Kansas (2011–present)^[35]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Jeff Colyer	Ron Ryckman Jr.	Derek Schmidt	Undecided
Cygnal (R)[36][A]	March 3–4, 2021	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	19%	5%	28%	49%

Hypothetical polling

Results

Results by county:

  Schmidt

•   70–80%
•   80–90%
•   90–100%

Republican primary results^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Derek Schmidt Katie Sawyer	373,524	80.60
	Republican	Arlyn Briggs Lance Berland	89,898	19.40
Total votes			463,422	100.00

Independent

Candidates

Declared

• Dennis Pyle, state senator from the 1st district, former Republican (2005–2025)^[37]
  • Kathleen Garrison, Clearwater school board member^[37]

General election

Campaign

Reporters noted the lack of attention towards abortion as an issue in the campaign by both major candidates, despite the defeat of an abortion amendment in August which was widely seen as a prominent victory for the pro-choice movement.^[38][39] In televised debates, Schmidt said that he respected the referendum results and accused Kelly of opposing existing abortion restrictions. Kelly denied the accusation, saying that she had stayed consistent on the subject, and further adding that she believed in "bodily autonomy" for women.^[40] When pressed on whether they would support retaining all justices in the state Supreme Court who ruled abortion as a fundamental constitutional right in 2019 and were up on the ballot, Kelly said that she would, while Schmidt said he would vote to retain some and not others.^[41]

Instead, both candidates focused more on "kitchen-table" issues such as the economy and education,^[39] where polls showed that the former of which was the most important concern among voters.^[38][42] Kelly's campaign tied Schmidt with former governor Sam Brownback and his Kansas experiment, highlighting Schmidt's defense of lawsuits regarding budget cuts to public education as the attorney general.^[43] In the contrary, Schmidt's campaign tied Kelly with President Joe Biden by focusing on national issues such as the increase in inflation and gas prices, portraying them as "big-spending liberals".^[41] Other issues include criminal justice^[44][45] and transgender people in sports.^[46][47]

Aside from state Supreme Court justice retention elections and other statewide elections, the election was also held on the same ballot as two referendums for proposed constitutional amendments. Question 1 would authorize the state legislature to veto any rules and regulations implemented by Kansas's executive branch with a simple majority.^[48] The proposal was spearheaded by Schmidt in 2021 in response to Governor Kelly's pandemic-related measures to close schools temporarily and he made COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates as a focal point in his platform.^[49] Kelly's campaign countered that the amendment would be a "power grab" that could create further gridlock in the state's legislative process.^[50][51] Question 2 would require most sheriffs to be elected directly by voters and that they could only be removed by a recall election or a challenge by the state attorney general.^[52] In a press release, Schmidt said that he would campaign for the amendment, arguing that electing sheriffs would make them "uniquely accountable to the people".^[53] Critics pointed out that the amendment could create abuse of power as the authority to investigate the sheriff would be stripped from district attorneys in every county and the attorney general could "play favorites" into which sheriff to investigate.^[49] In the end, Question 1 failed narrowly by a one-point margin, while Question 2 passed with 62% of the vote.^[54]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[55]	Tossup	July 26, 2022
Inside Elections[56]	Tossup	July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[57]	Lean R (flip)	November 7, 2022
Politico[58]	Tossup	August 12, 2022
RCP[59]	Tossup	August 3, 2022
Fox News[60]	Tossup	October 25, 2022
538[61]	Lean D	September 13, 2022
Elections Daily[62]	Lean D	November 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

Laura Kelly (D)

Federal officials

• Sheila Frahm, former United States Senator for Kansas (1996) (Republican)^[63]
• Nancy Kassebaum, former United States Senator for Kansas (1978–1997) (Republican)^[64]
• Stephen McAllister, former United States Attorney for the District of Kansas (2018–2021), former Solicitor General of Kansas (2007–2018) (Republican)^[65]

State officials

• John W. Carlin, former governor of Kansas (1979–1987), former Archivist of the United States (1995-2005)^[63]
• Bill Graves, former governor of Kansas (1995–2003) (Republican)^[66]
• Mike Hayden, former governor of Kansas (1987–1991) (Republican)^[63]
• Kathleen Sebelius, former governor of Kansas (2003–2009), former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (2009-2014)^[63]
• Robert Stephan, former attorney general of Kansas (1979-1995) (Republican)^[63]
• Carla Stovall, former attorney general of Kansas (1995–2003) (Republican)^[67]

State legislators

• Jan Kessinger, former state representative (2017–2021) (Republican)^[68]

Organizations

• End Citizens United^[69]
• Equality Kansas^[70]
• Kansas AFL–CIO^[70]
• Let America Vote^[69]
• National Education Association^[70]
• National Women's Political Caucus^[71]
• United Auto Workers^[70]

Newspapers

• The Wichita Eagle^[72]

Derek Schmidt (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

• Mike Pence, former vice president of the United States (2017–2021), and former governor of Indiana (2013–2017)^[73]

Federal legislators

• Jerry Moran, U.S. senator from Kansas (2011–present)^[73]

State officials

• Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey (2010–2018)^[74]
• Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present)^[75]
• Glenn Youngkin, governor of Virginia (2022–present)^[76]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Laura Kelly (D)	Derek Schmidt (R)	Other [b]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight[77]	August 10 – October 29, 2022	November 2, 2022	48.6%	43.5%	7.9%	Kelly +5.1

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Laura Kelly (D)	Derek Schmidt (R)	Dennis Pyle (I)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College[78]	October 27–29, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	43%	5%	2%[c]	4%
				49%	44%	5%	2%[d]	–
Jayhawk Consulting (D)[79][B]	October 10–12, 2022	500 (LV)	–	38%	37%	7%	–	18%
Emerson College[80]	September 15–18, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	43%	3%	1%[e]	8%
Echelon Insights[81][C]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	392 (LV)	± 7.5%	53%	41%	–	–	5%
Battleground Connect (R)[82][D]	August 8–10, 2022	1,074 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	48%	2%	–	5%
WPA Intelligence (R)[83][E]	April 26–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	47%	–	–	10%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[84][F]	September 13–15, 2021	810 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	44%	–	–	9%
Remington Research Group (R)[85]	September 7–9, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	44%	–	–	16%

Debates and forums

2022 Kansas gubernatorial debates and forums

No.	Date	Host	Moderator	Location	Link	Republican	Democratic	Libertarian	Independent
P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
						Derek Schmidt	Laura Kelly	Seth Cordell	Dennis Pyle
1[86]	September 7, 2022	Kansas Chamber of Commerce	–	Olathe	[f]	P	P	N	N
2[88]	September 10, 2022	WIBW-FM	Greg Akagi	Hutchinson	Youtube	P	P	N	N
3[89]	October 5, 2022	Kansas City PBS/ Johnson County Bar Association	Nick Haines	Overland Park	Youtube	P	P	N	N

Results

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5–15%
•   Republican — +>15%

Trend by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5–10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5–15%
•   Republican — +>15%

2022 Kansas gubernatorial election^[54]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Laura Kelly (incumbent) David Toland (incumbent)	499,849	49.54%	+1.53%
	Republican	Derek Schmidt Katie Sawyer	477,591	47.33%	+4.35%
	Independent	Dennis Pyle Kathleen Garrison	20,452	2.03%	N/A
	Libertarian	Seth Cordell Evan Laudick-Gains	11,106	1.10%	−0.80%
Total votes			1,008,998	100.0%
Turnout				47.94%
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Crawford (largest city: Pittsburg)
• Harvey (largest city: Newton)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Geary (largest city: Junction City)

Radar chart contrasting Laura Kelly's 2022 performance^[90][91] with Vote No in 2022 Kansas abortion referendum^[92][93]

By congressional district

Kelly won two of four congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.^[94]

District	Kelly	Schmidt	Representative
1st	44%	52%	Tracey Mann
2nd	49%	48%	Jake LaTurner
3rd	57%	40%	Sharice Davids
4th	46%	51%	Ron Estes

Analysis

Laura Kelly won the election by a margin of 2.2 percentage points over Derek Schmidt, similar to the percentage of votes that independent Dennis Pyle received. Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman pointed to this as evidence that Pyle was somewhat responsible for Schmidt's defeat. However, Pyle insisted that "Kansas needed a strong conservative candidate" and instead highlighted Schmidt's underperformance compared to other Republican candidates in Kansas.^[4] This was the first election since 2002 where the winner of the United States Senate election in Kansas was of a different party from the winner of the concurrent gubernatorial election.

Kelly's personal popularity was also a factor in her victory, where a majority of voters approved of Kelly's job performance, while only a third did so for President Joe Biden.^[95][96] Her win was also propelled by Democratic candidates' increased strength in suburban areas, such as Johnson County, in spite of Schmidt's increased vote share from 2018 in the Republican strongholds of rural Kansas.^[97] Kelly also won Sedgwick County, home of Wichita, by 2.9%,^[98] receiving 1.8% more of the vote than in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election.^[99] According to a survey conducted by NORC and published by Fox News, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Schmidt's defeat.^[100]

Exit polls

According to Fox News's voter analysis of the 2022 race,^[101] Kelly won women voters (51% Kelly, 45% Schmidt), voters 18–29 (51% Kelly, 43% Schmidt), millennials (55%, 39%), Gen X (50%, 47%), college-educated voters (57%, 40%), and Latino/Hispanic voters (58%).

Kelly lost voters who were concerned about inflation by four points (46%). She lost voters who listed groceries and food as their most important inflation concern by one point.^[102][103] 69% of voters listed abortion as an important factor in their vote, and Kelly won this group by 24 points (60%, 36%), closely mirroring the results of the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum. She won voters who listed "the future of democracy in this country" as an important factor in their vote (88% of voters) by seven points (52%).^[101]

See also

• Elections in Kansas
• Political party strength in Kansas
• Kansas Democratic Party
• Kansas Republican Party
• Government of Kansas
• 2022 United States Senate election in Kansas
• 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Kansas
• 2022 Kansas House of Representatives election
• 2022 Kansas elections
• 2022 United States gubernatorial elections
• 2022 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
4. Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
5. "Someone else" with 1%
6. Recording not made public^[87]

Partisan clients

1. This poll was sponsored by Our Way of Life PA.C
2. This poll was sponsored by Patrick Schmidt's campaign, the Democratic nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district.
3. This poll was sponsored by NetChoice.
4. This poll was sponsored by the John Brown Freedom Fund.
5. This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign for Attorney General.
6. This poll was sponsored by EMILY's List, which supports Kelly.