2018 Texas gubernatorial election

2018 Texas gubernatorial election
Turnout	53.01% (of registered voters) 19.31pp; 42.07% (of voting age population)
	Abbott: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Valdez: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No data
Governor before election; Greg Abbott; Republican	Elected Governor ; Greg Abbott; Republican

The 2018 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Texas, concurrently with the election of Texas's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other congressional, state and local elections throughout the United States and Texas. Incumbent Republican governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a second term in office^[2] defeating Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez, the former sheriff of Dallas County, and Libertarian nominee Mark Tippetts, a former member of the Lago Vista city council.

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The Republican and Democratic party primaries were held on March 6, 2018, making them the first primaries of the 2018 electoral season.^[3] Abbott won the March 6 primary with 90% of the vote to receive the Republican nomination, while Democratic candidates Lupe Valdez and Andrew White advanced to a May 22 runoff.^[4] Valdez defeated White in the runoff with 53.1% of the vote and faced Abbott in the general election as the Democratic nominee.^[5]

Valdez's nomination made her the first openly gay person nominated for governor by a major party in the state.^[6]

Tippetts was nominated at the Libertarian Party of Texas' state convention in Houston April 13–15, 2018. He defeated three challengers, as well as the None Of The Above option, on the first ballot and received more than 70% approval from Libertarian party delegates.

Despite considerably closer contests in other Texas state elections, Abbott handily won a second term with the highest margin of victory of any state executive official on the ballot, although Valdez also won the largest vote share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards in 1994.^[7] Tippetts' showing exceeded the previous record for most votes for a Libertarian nominee for Texas governor; that record had been set in 1990.

The election also took place alongside a closer, higher-profile Senate race between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz, which may have played a factor in making the Democratic gubernatorial candidate considerably more competitive than in 2014. Abbott won a majority among white voters (72% to 26%), while Valdez won majorities among African Americans (80% to 16%) and Latinos (63% to 35%).^[8]

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Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Greg Abbott	Barbara Krueger	Other	Undecided
Dixie Strategies^[22]	February 22–23, 2018	–	± 4.7%	84%	2%	1%^[23]	13%
University of Texas^[24]	February 1–12, 2018	612	± 5.3%	95%	5%	0%^[25]	–

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Greg Abbott (incumbent)	1,392,310	90.38%	−1.11%
	Republican	Barbara Krueger	127,549	8.28%
	Republican	Larry Kilgore	20,504	1.33%	−0.09%
Total votes			1,540,363	100%	+202,488
Turnout				10.10%^[27]	−0.26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Adrian Ocegueda	Jeffrey Payne	Lupe Valdez	Tom Wakely	Andrew White	Grady Yarbrough	Other	Undecided
Dixie Strategies^[22]	February 22–23, 2018	–	± 5.7%	6%	1%	12%	2%	17%	1%	6%^[109]	54%
University of Texas^[24]	February 1–12, 2018	453	± 7.4%	5%	5%	43%	7%	24%	7%	8%^[110]	–

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Lupe Valdez	436,666	42.89%
	Democratic	Andrew White	278,708	27.37%
	Democratic	Cedric Davis Sr.	83,938	8.24%
	Democratic	Grady Yarbrough	54,660	5.36%
	Democratic	Jeffrey Payne	48,407	4.75%
	Democratic	Adrian Ocegueda	44,825	4.4%
	Democratic	Tom Wakely	34,889	3.42%
	Democratic	James Clark	21,945	2.15%
	Democratic	Joe Mumbach	13,921	1.36%
Total votes			1,017,959	100%	+463,945
Turnout				6.67%^[27]	+2.6%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Lupe Valdez	227,577	53.1
	Democratic	Andrew White	201,356	46.9
Total votes			432,180	100

2018 Texas gubernatorial election

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

First round

Polling

Results

Runoff

Results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

Defeated at convention

General election

Debates

Endorsements

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Analysis

Voter demographics

References

External links

Wikiwand - on

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[152]	Safe R	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[153]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[154]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[155]	Safe R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[156]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[157]	Safe R	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[158]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Fox News^[159]^[a]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Politico^[160]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Governing^[161]	Safe R	November 5, 2018

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Greg Abbott (R)	Lupe Valdez (D)	Mark Tippetts (L)	Other	Undecided
Emerson College^[162]	October 28–30, 2018	781	± 3.7%	51%	43%	2%	–	4%
Quinnipiac University^[163]	October 22–28, 2018	1,078	± 3.5%	54%	40%	–	1%	6%
University of Texas Tyler^[164]	October 15–28, 2018	1,033	± 3.0%	53%	32%	–	5%	10%
Dixie Strategies^[165]	October 25–26, 2018	588	± 4.0%	59%	33%	–	–	7%
University of Texas/YouGov^[166]	October 15–21, 2018	927	± 3.2%	56%	37%	3%	4%	–
Ipsos^[167]	October 12–18, 2018	1,298	± 3.2%	53%	38%	–	3%	6%
CNN/SSRS^[168]	October 9–13, 2018	716 LV	± 4.5%	57%	39%	–	0%	3%
CNN/SSRS^[168]	October 9–13, 2018	862 RV	± 4.1%	56%	38%	–	0%	4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College^[169]	October 8–11, 2018	800	± 3.6%	57%	35%	–	–	8%
Quinnipiac University^[170]	October 3–9, 2018	730	± 4.4%	58%	38%	–	0%	4%
Emerson College^[171]	October 1–5, 2018	500	± 4.5%	53%	33%	–	3%	11%
Epstein Group^[172]	September 15–24, 2018	1,200	± 2.9%	58%	29%	3%	–	10%
Vox Populi Polling^[173]	September 16–18, 2018	508	± 4.4%	55%	45%	–	–	–
Quinnipiac University^[174]	September 11–17, 2018	807	± 4.1%	58%	39%	–	0%	3%
Ipsos^[175]	September 6–14, 2018	992	± 4.0%	50%	41%	–	2%	6%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations^[176]	September 6–9, 2018	800	± 4.0%	52%	39%	–	–	–
Dixie Strategies^[177]	September 6–7, 2018	519	± 4.3%	53%	34%	1%	–	12%
Emerson College^[178]	August 22–25, 2018	550	± 4.4%	48%	28%	–	3%	20%
Marist College^[179]	August 12–16, 2018	759	± 3.8%	56%	37%	–	<1%	6%
Quinnipiac University^[180]	July 26–31, 2018	1,118	± 3.5%	51%	38%	–	1%	9%
Texas Lyceum^[181]	July 9–26, 2018	441 LV	± 4.7%	47%	31%	1%	–	22%
Texas Lyceum^[181]	July 9–26, 2018	806 RV	± 3.5%	44%	25%	3%	–	28%
Gravis Marketing^[182]	July 3–7, 2018	602	± 4.0%	51%	41%	–	–	8%
University of Texas/YouGov^[183]	June 8–17, 2018	1,200	± 2.8%	44%	32%	4%	4%	16%
Quinnipiac University^[184]	May 23–29, 2018	961	± 3.8%	53%	34%	–	1%	9%
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)^[185]	May 19–21, 2018	575	± 4.1%	48%	36%	–	–	16%
Quinnipiac University^[186]	April 12–17, 2018	1,029	± 3.6%	49%	40%	–	0%	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Greg Abbott (R)	Andrew White (D)	Other	Undecided
JMC Analytics (R-Red Metrics Group)^[185]	May 19–21, 2018	575	± 4.1%	50%	39%	–	10%
Quinnipiac University^[186]	April 12–17, 2018	1,029	± 3.6%	48%	41%	0%	9%

District	Abbott	Valdez	Representative
1st	74%	25%	Louie Gohmert
2nd	56%	43%	Ted Poe
2nd	56%	43%	Dan Crenshaw
3rd	58%	41%	Sam Johnson
3rd	58%	41%	Van Taylor
4th	77%	22%	John Ratcliffe
5th	64%	34%	Jeb Hensarling
5th	64%	34%	Lance Gooden
6th	56%	42%	Joe Barton
6th	56%	42%	Ron Wright
7th	52%	46%	John Culberson
7th	52%	46%	Lizzie Fletcher
8th	75%	24%	Kevin Brady
9th	23%	75%	Al Green
10th	54%	44%	Michael McCaul
11th	80%	18%	Mike Conaway
12th	65%	34%	Kay Granger
13th	81%	17%	Mac Thornberry
14th	62%	37%	Randy Weber
15th	48%	51%	Vicente Gonzalez
16th	32%	66%	Beto O'Rourke
16th	32%	66%	Veronica Escobar
17th	59%	39%	Bill Flores
18th	25%	73%	Sheila Jackson Lee
19th	74%	24%	Jodey Arrington
20th	39%	59%	Joaquín Castro
21st	55%	43%	Lamar Smith
21st	55%	43%	Chip Roy
22nd	56%	43%	Pete Olson
23rd	53%	46%	Will Hurd
24th	54%	44%	Kenny Marchant
25th	57%	41%	Roger Williams
26th	62%	36%	Michael Burgess
27th	66%	33%	Michael Cloud
28th	46%	53%	Henry Cuellar
29th	30%	69%	Gene Green
29th	30%	69%	Sylvia Garcia
30th	22%	76%	Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st	56%	42%	John Carter
32nd	52%	46%	Pete Sessions