2018 United States Senate election in Texas

2018 United States Senate election in Texas
Turnout	53.01% (of registered voters); 42.07% (of voting age population)
	Cruz: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; O'Rourke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No data
U.S. senator before election; Ted Cruz; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Ted Cruz; Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives in additional states. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Cruz secured a second term, defeating Democratic U.S. Representative Beto O'Rourke. The primary for all parties was held on March 6, 2018, making it the first primary of the 2018 season.^[2] As Cruz and O'Rourke both won majorities in their primaries, they did not participate in the May 22 runoff primary that was held for some nominations in Texas.^[3]

Quick Facts Turnout, Nominee ...

No Democrat has won a general election for statewide office in Texas since Bob Bullock was reelected as lieutenant governor in 1994, with election forecasters declaring it a safe Republican seat at the beginning of the 2018 cycle.^[4] However, O'Rourke gradually closed the gap,^[5] and leading up to the election, the race was considered unexpectedly competitive.^[6]

On Election Day, Cruz defeated O'Rourke^[7] by a margin of just under 215,000 votes, or 2.6 percent; the race was the closest U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1978.^[8]

[2]

[3]

[1]

[4]

[5]

[6]

[7]

[8]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Stefano de Stefano	Bruce Jacobson	Mary Miller	Geraldine Sam	Undecided
Dixie Strategies^[29]	February 22–23, 2018	–	± 4.7%	73%	1%	2%	2%	1%	21%
University of Texas^[30]	February 1–12, 2018	612	± 5.3%	91%	1%	3%	3%	2%	–

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Michael McCaul	Other	Undecided
Dixie Strategies^[31]	September 29 – October 1, 2016	321	± 3.5%	52%	12%	7%	29%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	August 12–14, 2016	522	–	51%	19%	–	31%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ted Cruz	Dan Patrick	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[32]	August 12–14, 2016	522	–	49%	27%	–	24%
Dixie Strategies^[33]	August 8–9, 2016	448	–	38%	23%	15%	24%

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ted Cruz (incumbent)	1,322,724	85.36%
	Republican	Mary Miller	94,715	6.11%
	Republican	Bruce Jacobson Jr.	64,791	4.18%
	Republican	Stefano de Stefano	44,456	2.87%
	Republican	Geraldine Sam	22,887	1.48%
Total votes			1,549,573	100%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Sema Hernandez	Edward Kimbrough	Beto O'Rourke	Undecided
Dixie Strategies^[29]	February 22–23, 2018	–	± 5.7%	6%	4%	38%	53%
University of Texas^[30]	February 1–12, 2018	453	± 7.4%	19%	8%	73%	–

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[60]	Tossup	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections^[61]	Likely R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[62]	Lean R	November 5, 2018
CNN^[63]	Lean R	October 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[64]	Lean R	November 5, 2018
Daily Kos^[65]	Lean R	October 5, 2018
Fox News^[66]^[a]	Lean R	October 30, 2018

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2018
Candidate (party)	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Ted Cruz (R)	$45,668,718	$45,990,176	$157,959
Beto O'Rourke (D)	$80,344,836	$80,458,720	$284,816
Neal Dikeman (L)	$33,732	$33,398	$333
Source: Federal Election Commission^[204]

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ted Cruz (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Neal Dikeman (L)	Other	Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R)^[205]	November 3–5, 2018	2,135	± 2.1%	52%	43%	–	1%	4%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC)^[206]	November 1–2, 2018	1,211	–	49%	49%	1%	–	–
Emerson College^[207]	October 28–30, 2018	781	± 3.7%	50%	47%	1%	–	2%
Quinnipiac University^[208]	October 22–28, 2018	1,078	± 3.5%	51%	46%	–	1%	3%
University of Texas Tyler^[209]	October 15–28, 2018	905 LV	–	47%	43%	–	4%	6%
University of Texas Tyler^[209]	October 15–28, 2018	1,033 RV	± 3.0%	47%	42%	–	4%	8%
Dixie Strategies^[210]	October 25–26, 2018	588	± 4.0%	52%	42%	–	–	5%
GBA Strategies (D-End Citizens United)^[211]	October 18–21, 2018	1,000	± 4.0%	50%	46%	2%	–	2%
University of Texas/YouGov^[212]	October 15–21, 2018	927	± 3.2%	51%	45%	2%	2%	–
Ipsos^[213]	October 12–18, 2018	1,298	± 3.2%	49%	44%	–	3%	1%
Tulchin Research (D-MoveOn)^[214]	October 10–14, 2018	600	± 4.0%	49%	45%	3%	–	3%
CNN/SSRS^[215]	October 9–13, 2018	716 LV	± 4.5%	52%	45%	–	0%	2%
CNN/SSRS^[215]	October 9–13, 2018	862 RV	± 4.1%	50%	45%	–	0%	3%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)^[216]	October 8–13, 2018	801	± 3.5%	52%	43%	1%	–	4%
NYT Upshot/Siena College^[217]	October 8–11, 2018	800	± 3.6%	51%	43%	1%	–	5%
Quinnipiac University^[218]	October 3–9, 2018	730	± 4.4%	54%	45%	–	0%	2%
YouGov^[219]	October 2–5, 2018	881	–	50%	44%	–	2%	4%
Emerson College^[220]	October 1–5, 2018	500	± 4.5%	47%	42%	–	3%	8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)^[221]	September 19–20, 2018	613	± 4.0%	48%	45%	–	–	8%
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)^[222]	September 19–20, 2018	603	± 4.0%	49%	46%	–	–	5%
Vox Populi Polling^[223]	September 16–18, 2018	508	± 4.4%	50%	50%	–	–	–
Quinnipiac University^[224]	September 11–17, 2018	807	± 4.1%	54%	45%	–	0%	1%
Chism Strategies (D-Reform Austin)^[225]	September 11–12, 2018	1,161	± 3.0%	49%	45%	–	–	5%
Ipsos^[226]	September 6–14, 2018	992	± 4.0%	45%	47%	–	3%	5%
Crosswind Media & Public Relations^[227]	September 6–9, 2018	800	± 4.0%	47%	44%	–	–	–
Dixie Strategies^[228]	September 6–7, 2018	519	± 4.3%	46%	42%	1%	–	11%
Emerson College^[229]	August 22–25, 2018	550	± 4.4%	38%	37%	–	4%	21%
NBC News/Marist^[230]	August 12–16, 2018	759	± 3.8%	49%	45%	–	1%	6%
Civiqs^[231]^[a]	August 8–11, 2018	–^[b]	–	47%	48%	–	–	–
Public Policy Polling (D-End Citizens United)^[232]	August 1–2, 2018	797	± 3.5%	46%	42%	–	–	–
Quinnipiac University^[233]	July 26–31, 2018	1,118	± 3.5%	49%	43%	–	0%	6%
Texas Lyceum^[234]	July 9–26, 2018	441 LV	± 4.7%	41%	39%	1%	–	19%
Texas Lyceum^[234]	July 9–26, 2018	806 RV	± 3.5%	36%	34%	3%	–	24%
Gravis Marketing^[235]	July 3–7, 2018	602	± 4.0%	51%	42%	–	–	7%
YouGov^[236]	June 19–22, 2018	821 LV	–	50%	40%	–	3%	7%
YouGov^[236]	June 19–22, 2018	1,025 RV	± 3.6%	44%	36%	–	3%	13%
University of Texas/YouGov^[237]	June 8–17, 2018	1,200	± 2.8%	41%	36%	2%	3%	17%
GQR Research (D-End Citizens United)^[238]	May 29 – June 5, 2018	1,000	± 3.1%	49%	43%	–	–	8%
Quinnipiac University^[239]	May 23–29, 2018	961	± 3.8%	50%	39%	–	0%	9%
Baselice & Associates (R-TLRPAC)^[240]	May 21–28, 2018	601	± 4.1%	48%	36%	3%	1%	11%

2018 United States Senate election in Texas^[249]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Ted Cruz (incumbent)	4,260,553	50.89%	−5.57%
	Democratic	Beto O'Rourke	4,045,632	48.33%	+7.71%
	Libertarian	Neal Dikeman	65,470	0.78%	−1.28%
Total votes			8,371,655	100%	N/A
	Republican hold

Background

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Nominated

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Notes

General election

Predictions

Debates

Endorsements

Fundraising

Polling

Results

By county

By congressional district

Notes

References

External links