2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election

A regional election was held in Castile and León on Sunday, 26 May 2019, to elect the 10th Cortes of the autonomous community. All 81 seats in the Cortes were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election

← 2015 26 May 2019 2022 →
All 81 seats in the Cortes of Castile and León 41 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	2,114,811 1.7%
Turnout	1,391,502 (65.8%) 1.1 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Luis Tudanca Alfonso Fernández Mañueco Francisco Igea Party PSOE PP Cs Leader since 18 October 2014 1 April 2017 11 March 2019 Leader's seat Burgos Salamanca Valladolid Last election 25 seats, 25.9% 42 seats, 37.7% 5 seats, 10.3% Seats won 35 29 12 Seat change 10 13 7 Popular vote 479,916 433,905 205,855 Percentage 34.8% 31.5% 14.9% Swing 8.9 pp 6.1 pp 4.6 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Pablo Fernández Jesús García-Conde Luis Mariano Santos Party Podemos–Equo Vox UPL Leader since 14 February 2015 10 May 2019 26 March 2015 Leader's seat León Valladolid León Last election 10 seats, 12.1% 0 seats, 0.7% 1 seat, 1.4% Seats won 2 1 1 Seat change 8 1 0 Popular vote 68,869 75,731 28,057 Percentage 5.0% 5.5% 2.0% Swing 7.1 pp 4.8 pp 0.6 pp   Seventh party Eighth party   Leader Pedro Pascual José Sarrión Party XAV IU–A–PCAS/TC–ALTER Leader since 9 April 2019 15 February 2015 Leader's seat Ávila Valladolid Last election Did not contest 1 seat, 4.5%[a] Seats won 1 0 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 9,455 31,580 Percentage 0.7% 2.3% Swing New party 2.2 pp
Vote winner strength by constituency Election results by constituency
President before election Juan Vicente Herrera PP Elected President Alfonso Fernández Mañueco PP

The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) saw its first plurality in a regional election in Castile and León since 1983, being only the second time in history that the party emerged as the most voted political force in a regional election. Conversely, support for the governing People's Party (PP) collapsed into the worst historical showing for the party, whereas the liberal Citizens (Cs) and the far-right Vox made substantial gains at its expense, though support for the latter, which rose from 0.7% to 5.5%, failed to materialize in more than one single seat due to the electoral system. Concurrently, the Podemos–Equo alliance suffered a sizeable setback after losing eight out of the ten seats Podemos had won on its own in 2015.

As a result of PP and Cs being able to muster a slim majority of 41 seats in the Cortes, the two centre-right parties were able to form a coalition government—the second in the community's history, after the coalition between the PP and the late Democratic and Social Centre (CDS) that was formed for the 1989–1991 period—under PP candidate Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, who became the region's new president.^[1]

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castile and León were the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castile and León, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Leonese Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[2] Voting for the Cortes was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castile and León and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Castilian-Leonese people abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[3]

All members of the Cortes of Castile and León were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats, as well as one additional member per each 45,000 inhabitants or fraction greater than 22,500.^[2][4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
15	Valladolid
13	León(–1)
11	Burgos
10	Salamanca(–1)
7	Ávila, Palencia, Zamora
6	Segovia(–1)
5	Soria

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method resulted in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies.^[5]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castile and León expired four years after the date of their previous election, unless they were dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Castile and León (BOCYL), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and sixtieth days from publication. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 24 May 2019. The election decree was required to be published in the BOCYL no later than 30 April 2019, with the election taking place up to the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Cortes on Saturday, 29 June 2019.^[2][4][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castile and León and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Cortes were to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[2]

Parliamentary composition

The Cortes of Castile and León were officially dissolved on 2 April 2019, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of Castile and León.^[7] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Cortes at the time of dissolution.^[8]

Parliamentary composition in April 2019

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	42	42
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	25	25
	We Can Castile and León Parliamentary Group		Podemos	10	10
	Citizens Parliamentary Group		Cs	5	5
	Mixed Parliamentary Group		IUCyL	1	2
			UPL	1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[4][6]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Alfonso Fernández Mañueco	Conservatism Christian democracy	37.7%	42		[9] [10]
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Luis Tudanca	Social democracy	25.9%	25		[11]
	Podemos– Equo	List We Can (Podemos) Equo (Equo)		Pablo Fernández	Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism	12.1%	10		[12]
	Cs	List Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)		Francisco Igea	Liberalism	10.3%	5		[13]
	IU–A–PCAS/ TC–ALTER	List United Left of Castile and León (IUCyL) – Communist Party of Castile and León (PCCyL) – The Dawn. Marxist Organization OM (La Aurora (om)) – Republican Left (IR) – Feminist Party of Spain (PFE) Anticapitalists (Anticapitalistas) Castilian Party–Commoners' Land (PCAS–TC) Republican Alternative (ALTER)		José Sarrión	Socialism Communism	4.5% [a]	1		[14]
	UPL	List Leonese People's Union (UPL)		Luis Mariano Santos	Regionalism Autonomism	1.4%	1		[15]
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		Jesús García-Conde	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	0.7%	0		[16]
	XAV	List For Ávila (XAV)		Pedro Pascual	Regionalism	—			[17]

Campaign

Election debates

Since a 2017 reform, the electoral law of Castile and León provided for the presidential candidates of the parties having a parliamentary group in the Cortes to participate in, at least, two electoral debates to be held during the electoral campaign.^[4]

2019 Castilian-Leonese regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P  Present[b]    S  Surrogate[c]    NI  Not invited   A  Absent invitee
			PP	PSOE	Podemos	Cs	Audience	Ref.
14 May	RTVCyL	Nati Melendre Alejandra Abad	P Mañueco	P Tudanca	P Fernández	P Igea	228,000	[18] [19]
21 May	RTVCyL	Nati Melendre Alejandra Abad	P Mañueco	P Tudanca	P Fernández	P Igea	183,000	[20] [21]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 41 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castile and León (43 until 10 January 2018).

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout						UPL				Lead
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	65.8	31.5 29	34.8 35	5.0 2	14.9 12	2.3 0	2.0 1	5.5 1	–	0.7 1	3.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 1]	22–23 May 2019	?	?	30.5 30	31.7 31	8.1 3	17.8 15	1.4 0	1.5 1	6.7 1	–	–	1.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 2]	21–22 May 2019	?	?	30.9 30	31.8 32	7.9 3	17.7 14	1.5 0	1.5 1	6.4 1	–	–	0.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 3]	20–21 May 2019	?	?	31.0 30	31.7 30	7.9 3	18.0 16	1.5 0	1.5 1	6.7 1	–	–	0.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 4]	19–20 May 2019	?	?	30.8 30	31.5 30	7.7 3	18.3 16	1.4 0	1.5 1	6.5 1	–	–	0.7
KeyData/Público[p 5]	19 May 2019	?	68.1	27.4 27	28.6 31	10.6 3	16.9 17	3.0 0	? 0	9.7 3	–	–	1.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 6][p 7][p 8]	19 May 2019	?	?	31.4 28/33	31.9 28/33	? 3/4	? 13/16	? 0/1	? 1	? 2/3	–	–	0.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 9]	19 May 2019	?	?	31.2 29/33	33.1 29/34	7.1 2/3	16.4 14	1.4 0	1.7 1	6.0 2	–	–	1.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 10]	16–19 May 2019	?	?	30.4 30	31.2 30	7.8 3	18.4 16	1.5 0	1.5 1	6.7 1	–	–	0.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 11]	13–16 May 2019	?	?	28.9 27	29.9 29	8.5 4	19.1 16	2.0 0	1.4 1	8.4 4	–	–	1.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 12]	10–13 May 2019	?	?	28.9 27	29.0 28	8.5 3	19.1 16	2.0 0	1.4 1	9.0 6	–	–	0.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 13]	7–10 May 2019	?	?	28.1 25	28.8 28	8.2 3	19.3 16	2.1 0	1.4 1	9.6 8	–	–	0.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 14]	4–7 May 2019	?	?	28.0 25	29.0 28	8.1 3	19.5 16	2.1 0	1.4 1	9.8 8	–	–	1.0
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 15]	29 Apr–4 May 2019	?	?	27.9 25	29.1 29	7.9 3	20.0 17	2.3 0	1.3 1	9.3 6	–	–	1.2
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	—	72.9	26.0 (24)	29.8 (28)	[d]	18.9 (14)	[d]	–	12.3 (9)	10.4 (6)	–	3.8
CIS[p 16][p 17]	21 Mar–23 Apr 2019	1,597	?	30.4 28/29	32.9 30/31	11.3 8	13.9 10/13	3.8 0/1	? 0/1	3.8 0/1	–	–	2.5
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 18]	31 Mar–7 Apr 2019	?	?	28.8 27	29.0 28	7.1 3	12.8 9	2.2 0	1.2 1	14.1 13	–	–	0.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 19]	24–31 Mar 2019	?	?	28.0 27	29.1 27	7.0 3	12.9 11	2.1 0	1.1 0	14.5 13	–	–	1.1
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 20]	17–24 Mar 2019	?	?	28.0 27	30.8 30	6.4 2	11.6 8	2.2 0	1.3 1	14.8 13	–	–	2.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 21]	10–17 Mar 2019	?	?	28.0 26	29.4 30	6.2 2	11.2 7	2.1 0	1.2 1	16.8 15	–	–	1.4
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 22]	3–10 Mar 2019	?	?	27.3 25	29.1 28	[d]	12.4 9	[d]	1.2 1	16.6 15	8.4 3	–	1.8
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 23]	22 Feb–3 Mar 2019	?	?	26.7 24	29.2 28	[d]	12.2 9	[d]	1.3 1	16.9 16	8.5 3	–	2.5
Sigma Dos/Ical[p 24]	5–12 Feb 2019	2,700	?	32.6 31/35	27.4 26/28	7.1 3	15.5 10/13	3.3 0/1	1.3 0/1	9.6 6	–	–	5.2
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 25]	7–18 Jan 2019	740	?	26.8 27	25.8 24	[d]	14.2 13	[d]	1.3 1	14.9 13	8.9 3	–	1.0
PSOE[p 26][p 27]	17 Jan 2019	?	?	26.0 24	29.0 29	[d]	12.5 11	[d]	–	16.0 14	7.0 3	–	3.0
Sigma Dos/Ical[p 28]	25–29 Jun 2018	2,200	?	33.0 31/32	29.3 25/26	[d]	22.0 17	[d]	0.9 0	–	10.6 6/8	–	3.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 29]	3–7 Jun 2018	?	?	32.1 32	27.9 26	[d]	17.6 14	[d]	1.4 1	–	16.0 11	–	4.2
SyM Consulting[p 30][p 31]	19–22 Mar 2018	5,500	65.5	35.6 32/37	25.5 22/29	6.2 2/3	18.1 14/18	6.0 2/3	1.1 0/1	–	–	–	10.1
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016	—	68.8	44.3 (42)	23.1 (20)	[d]	14.2 (10)	[d]	0.2 (0)	0.2 (0)	15.6 (12)	–	21.2
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015	—	72.2	39.1 (37)	22.5 (20)	15.1 (12)	15.4 (14)	4.6 (1)	–	0.3 (0)	–	–	16.6
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	64.9	37.7 42	25.9 25	12.1 10	10.3 5	4.1 1	1.4 1	0.7 0	–	–	11.8

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						UPL				?	N	Lead
2019 regional election	26 May 2019	—	22.1	24.4	3.5	10.5	1.6	1.4	3.8	–	0.5	—	29.2	2.3
April 2019 general election	28 Apr 2019	—	20.1	23.0	[d]	14.6	[d]	–	9.5	8.0	–	—	21.8	2.9
CIS[p 16]	21 Mar–23 Apr 2019	1,597	18.1	19.9	3.8	5.6	1.4	–	2.1	–	–	36.0	10.8	1.8
2016 general election	26 Jun 2016	—	32.1	16.8	[d]	10.3	[d]	0.1	0.1	11.2	–	—	26.7	15.3
2015 general election	20 Dec 2015	—	29.4	16.9	11.3	11.5	3.4	–	0.2	–	–	—	24.1	12.5
2015 regional election	24 May 2015	—	25.5	17.5	8.2	6.9	2.8	1.0	0.5	–	–	—	31.0	8.0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 26 May 2019 Cortes of Castile and León election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	479,916	34.84	+8.90	35	+10
	People's Party (PP)	433,905	31.50	−6.23	29	−13
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (Cs)	205,855	14.94	+4.67	12	+7
	Vox (Vox)	75,731	5.50	+4.82	1	+1
	We Can–Equo (Podemos–Equo)	68,869	5.00	−7.14	2	−8
	United Left–Anticapitalists (IU–Anticapitalistas–PCAS/TC–ALTER)1	31,580	2.29	−1.86	0	−1
	Leonese People's Union (UPL)2	28,057	2.04	+0.49	1	±0
	For Ávila (XAV)	9,455	0.69	New	1	+1
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	8,619	0.63	+0.10	0	±0
	Sorian People's Platform (PPSO)	3,895	0.28	New	0	±0
	Coalition for El Bierzo (CB)	3,725	0.27	−0.10	0	±0
	Decide Now (Ahora Decide)3	1,911	0.14	−0.20	0	±0
	Regionalist Party of El Bierzo (PRB)	1,602	0.12	+0.07	0	±0
	Regionalist Party of the Leonese Country (PREPAL)	1,403	0.10	±0.00	0	±0
	With You, We Are Democracy (Contigo)	1,287	0.09	New	0	±0
	Social Unity of Bierzo Electors (USE Bierzo)	1,259	0.09	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Workers of Spain (PCTE)	1,001	0.07	New	0	±0
	Regionalist Union of Castile and León (Unión Regionalista)4	992	0.07	+0.01	0	±0
	Democratic Centre Coalition (CCD)5	925	0.07	−0.87	0	±0
	Centered (centrados)	920	0.07	New	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)	627	0.05	−0.08	0	±0
	Ávila Free of Tolls (ÁvilaLP)	552	0.04	New	0	±0
	Grouped Rural Citizens (CRA)	472	0.03	−0.09	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	215	0.02	−0.08	0	±0
	Tradition and Future (TyF)	191	0.01	New	0	±0
	For a Fairer World (PUM+J)	148	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		14,566	1.06	−1.38
Total		1,377,678			81	−3
Valid votes		1,377,678	99.01	+1.08
Invalid votes		13,824	0.99	−1.08
Votes cast / turnout		1,391,502	65.80	+1.13
Abstentions		723,309	34.20	−1.13
Registered voters		2,114,811
Sources[22][23]
Footnotes: 1 United Left–Anticapitalists results are compared to the combined totals of United Left–Equo: Convergence for Castile and León and Castilian Party–Commoners' Land: Pact in the 2015 election. 2 Leonese People's Union results are compared to the combined totals of Leonese People's Union and Leonese Autonomist Party–Leonesist Unity in the 2015 election. 3 Decide Now results are compared to the combined totals of Zamoran Independent Electors and Decide Now–Socialist Alternative in the 2015 election. 4 Regionalist Union of Castile and León results are compared to Regionalist Democracy of Castile and León totals in the 2015 election. 5 Democratic Centre Coalition results are compared to Independent Candidacy–Citizens of Democratic Centre totals in the 2015 election.

Popular vote PSOE   34.84% PP   31.50% Cs   14.94% Vox   5.50% Podemos–Equo   5.00% IU–Anticapitalists   2.29% UPL   2.04% XAV   0.69% Others   2.16% Blank ballots   1.06%

Seats PSOE   43.21% PP   35.80% Cs   14.81% Podemos–Equo   2.47% Vox   1.23% UPL   1.23% XAV   1.23%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE		PP		Cs		Vox		Podemos		UPL		XAV
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Ávila	28.3	2	36.1	3	13.0	1	5.7	−	3.9	−			9.6	1
Burgos	37.0	5	28.1	3	17.3	2	6.1	−	7.2	1
León	35.2	6	27.4	4	11.0	1	4.2	−	5.5	1	10.2	1
Palencia	35.9	3	34.5	3	15.1	1	5.7	−	4.6	−
Salamanca	33.3	4	38.5	4	15.6	2	4.8	−	4.0	−	0.3	−
Segovia	33.8	3	33.5	2	16.4	1	5.6	−	5.3	−
Soria	40.7	3	27.6	2	11.3	−	4.3	−	5.1	−
Valladolid	34.7	6	29.5	5	17.7	3	6.9	1	4.7	−
Zamora	36.2	3	33.8	3	13.9	1	5.1	−	3.5	−	0.7	−
Total	34.8	35	31.5	29	14.9	12	5.5	1	5.0	2	2.0	1	0.7	1
Sources[22][23]

Aftermath

Further information: First government of Alfonso Fernández Mañueco

Investiture Alfonso Fernández Mañueco (PP)
Ballot →		9 July 2019
Required majority →		41 out of 81 Y
	Yes • PP (29) • Cs (12)	41 / 81
	No • PSOE (35) • Podemos (2) • UPL (1)	38 / 81
	Abstentions • Vox (1) • XAV (1)	2 / 81
	Absentees	0 / 81
Sources[23][24]

Notes

1. Results for IU–Equo (4.1%, 1 seat) and PCAS–TC–Pacto (0.3%, 0 seats) in the 2015 election.
2. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
3. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
4. Within Unidas Podemos.